11:31 AM 05/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:49 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Mel H. Buffalo
Ian Hopfe
Brian Jean
Roland Lefort
First Peoples National
John Malcolm

Brian Jean

2004 Result:
Brian Jean
Doug Faulkner
Robert Cree
Ian Hopfe

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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04 01 06 Smokin GUn
Actually Bear and Ape.. heres some things i've noticed about this riding.
1- Weak Conservative candidate
2- Strong Independent candidate
3- Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie have some of the quicker changing demographics and immigration of people into the riding (mostly from other provinces)
That being said though, it's still a strong conservative hold (maybe 15-16000 difference instead of 20000 this time)
31 12 05 Travis Chase
To the poster that said that the native vote will go Liberal, that is unlikely, that vote will go to John Malcolm who is contesting this riding for the First Peoples National Party, Green support has crested, Conservative numbers in Alberta are going up and Liberals are down, NDP have no relevence here, this should be an easy Conservative win. As of December 31st the Liberals haven't even got a candidate registered with Elections Canada yet.
31 12 05 Richard
Up until last week. I would have gone along with all of the predictions that Jean would win handily because this is an Alberta riding. I realize that signs don't vote, but Roland Lefort has outsigned Brian Jean by a ratio of about 10 or 15 to 1. People I speak to are generally offended that Jean isn't even TRYING to make it look like this is an actual election... his campaign office is a corner room in his mother's office! I haven't talked to a single person who said they're voting for Jean... they're either going to abstain altogether or vote for Lefort because they know the work he's done in the community. If Jean doesn't work on getting his vote out, and Lefort does... this may be one of the biggest upsets in Canada and could be the only blur in an otherwise solid blue Alberta.
07 12 05 EE
My favorite part is when Jean said that he will not be campaigning, and will be sending his donations to help with races in Saskatchewan... when this guy talks about Liberal "arrogance" and "entitlement" or even the "sanctaty of marriage" it is really quite laughable.
The rural part of this riding will secure a comfortable victory for Jean, despite a shady character... and an incredibly weak reputation as an MP. And you will see about a 20% voter turnout in Ft. McMurray, maybe even lower.
29 11 05 Joe
Brian Jean, who has already been identified on this website as being the worst MP in Canada, will naturally win again. Not because of any of the great things he's done for his constituency (read: nothing), but rather because it is a rural Alberta riding... a magical place where a blue piece of bark would win this seat if it got the tory nomination. Jean will again receive the lowest percentage of any rural Alberta Tory candidate (he lost 10% off of what former MP Dave Chatters received in the old Athabasca riding), and he may even drop below 60%. But he'll still win.
15 06 05 hatman
Conservatives will likely win every seat in Alberta. Fort McMurray-Athabasca will be no exception. I remember last election this was in the too close too call for a while, anticipating a close race with the Liberals. Not even close. They lost by 10,000 votes. It's not like the other northern provincial ridings. This riding has not gone Liberal since 1957.
05 06 05 RJW
Brian Jean is a terrible MP but it doesn't matter because this is oil-rich rural Alberta and he could win if he had six eyes.
02 06 05
GREENS? WIN ANY VOTES HERE? NO BLOUDDY WAY! I lived in Fort Mac for five years before moving on to Calgary. This is arguably the least green riding in Alberta. Dippers as well will be lucky to poll over 5000 votes. The people up here are not social conservatives, but they are hard line economic conservatives, and would not vote for any party which calls for alternative energy sources to oil. Both NDP and Greens would do much better in Pincer Creek in southern alberta, where the wind farms are, then up here in Oil Town.
Fort Mac could however switch Liberal, especially with the influx of young families. If the Grits nominate a strong, capitalist member, then they would stand a chance in a good election. As well there is a substantial Native population here (the second largest town, Fort Chip is entirely Native)which will always vote liberal. The Farmers in the south will vote Tories, The Natives up north will vote Liberal, and it all comes down to what the people of Fort Mac vote.
17 05 05 ToJo
CNRL and the Foreign Workers are an absoultely huge issue here. The federal and provincial governments bringing in workers from other countries to help build the new CNRL project has a lot of people, union and non-union up in arms. There was a rally with over 2,000 people less than a month ago. Both the Conservatives and the Liberals supported such a move, and with unemployment in the construction at about 6% in Alberta (and quite high in the East, almost 40% in Newfoundland I believe, where many of the people of Ft. Mac are from).
I doubt it will be enough to swing the riding from the Conservatives... but both Conservatives (and Jean) and the Liberals have been catching a lot of heat up in Ft. Mac from all the plant workers, especially the people who are old timers (who helped build Syncrude and Suncor in the 1960-1970s). While I still expect a very comfortable win for Brian Jean, mostly due to the rural portions of the riding (where he'll get about 70-80% of the vote). I think in the Ft. Mac polls you'll see quite a large number of NDP, Green votes should they be able to mobilize that discontent.
12 05 05 Richard M.
look at the numbers here. the conservative candidate is around 10000 votes lower than any other rural alberta riding with no increase in votes for the other parties. why did so many conservative stay home last time? maybe an independant with more appeal than these other guys had can make an impact here.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Rural Alberta, Conservative Incumbant, history of electing right-wing MP's since the 1920's...
The question is not so much who will win, but who else even can win?
This northern riding might look like it wont go tory at a bad election, but this is a good election, and the incumbent will hold on.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Even though this was their weakest showing in Rural Alberta, that doesn't say much. Rural Alberta is very right wing and will always elect right wing parties with huge margins. The only difference between this riding and one's further South is the Conservatives will only be in the 60s as opposed to 70s and possibly 80s this time around.
02 05 05
Brian Jean may be the worst MP in Canada, but I'm not sure the Liberals will be able to muscle the support needed to beat him. He'll receive massive support from the rural part of the riding - and also this is one of the most apathetic ridings in the country, with exteremely low voter turnout.
Ft. McMurray has some of the most interesting demographics for a riding in Canada ... and if the Liberals are going to win anywhere in Rural Alberta, it would be here.
However, all that being stated, this should be a relatively easy hold for the CPC. I mean if the Liberals couldn't do better than a distance second last time... why would things be different only one year down the road.

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