Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Winnipeg South Centre
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Anita Neville

2006 Result:
Anita Neville **
16296
Michael Richards
13077
Mark Wasyliw
9055
Vere H. Scott
1848
Dale Swirsky
934
Jeffrey Anderson
246
Magnus Thompson
66

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 29 binriso
156.34.209.176
Probably Liberal, you?d have to think they?ll try hard to save their seats out west (specifically urban ones) rather than being marginalized as an Ontario/Montreal-Anglo Quebec/Atlantic Party. This will be the last seat they lose before they get swept out of the province, which is why think they will hold it, because they aren?t going to get swept out of Manitoba unless Harper gives a ton of money to Winnipeg and the CPC only hold 3 out of 8 seats in Winnipeg not to mention one by 100 votes. Liberals haven?t lost this seat on its current boundaries either when it was renamed in 1988. Nevilles been there for 3 terms as well, and has faced candidates who although weren?t stars, were decent enough. Hard to choose against her so Id say the Liberals win by a similar margin. NDP vote probably goes down a bit because of some peoples fear of a Harper majority and will help the Liberals here.
08 03 17 Greg P
207.236.24.133
This is going to be one to watch. Provided Kennerd does more campaigning pre-writ then Richards did during 2005, expect this one to go right down to the wire. Winnipeg South will be targeted by the Conservatives, and South-Centre will get some benefits from that. Fletcher won't be as concerned about his own riding (much weaker opponent then Murray or Loewen), so will be able to spend more time helping other ridings. Add to this the fact that Neville isn't exactly known as the best constituency-MP, and this one is TCTC.
08 02 15 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Actually, I find that CFLers tend to be overrated as star-candidate prospects, or get tripped up (fairly or unfairly) by a general meathead reputation--particularly when their chosen party is that most (fairly or unfairly) meathead-reputationed-of-all, Conservative. (Though it didn't hurt Premier Getty in Alberta--then again, maybe it did.) Considering that the seat's been a little like the heart and soul of Winnipeg Liberalism (Lloyd Axworthy federally, of course, plus provincial leaders Carstairs and Gerrard), Anita Neville's done sluggishly, and she's lucky that her opponents regularly cancel each other out anyway--when all is said and done, WSC ought to be something of a 'Peg version of St. Paul's in Toronto, anyway...
08 02 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
76.64.124.247
Trevor Kennerd will do his best to sack Anita Neville and the general consensus that the CPC have been doing an alright job tackling a variety of issues may help him do that. (Okay we'll stop with the football puns) Many have said that Neville isn't a strong MP. Then again, the same has been said of Sue Barnes in London West. Barnes was up against a very famous sports-related name, ‘Gretzky’ but still hung on in '06. Now Neville is up against a CFL name. Problem is, Central Winnipeg isn't the most CPC-friendly local, nor are the CPC doing better in the polls than they did in ‘06. Liberals have been holding their own though (as week as it may have been). Though we concede that a TCTC prediction is not unwarrented at the moment, a CPC prediction is a little premature. We think St. Boniface would go CPC first.
08 02 06
24.81.18.126
Current prediction: Leaning Conservative
I think the CPC's nomination of CFL-star Trevor Kennard is a blow to Neville's campaign. Neville hasn't been the most effective MP, and that will lose her votes. This seat is absolutely winnable for the CPC and Kennard should be able to bridge the 3000 vote gap the CPC lost by in 2006.
07 04 09 JC
207.188.65.7
Liberals are now all but assured of holding onto this seat after Trevor Kennerd despite being a fairly high profile candidate, will be dogged by this race by his hard-right wing views, despite his high profile and despite Neville maybe not being the greatest MP in the world, she is going to win because she is a little more moderate then Kennard.
07 04 08 free_thinker
208.101.105.184
To close to call with an advantage to the Liberal party. This is definitely a target seat and Nevile has been a very ineffective MP in both government and opposition. I would lean towards calling this for the CPC but the Liberals ground organization could hold it. For the time being its TCTC.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Despite all the Conservatives talking about winning this riding, this is really too close to Downtown Winnipeg for a Conservative pick-up. The only way they could take this is with a strong NDP showing. They are strong in Tuxedo section on the west side of the riding, but extremely weak on the East side, so unless they can get over 50% on the west side of the riding, they won't be able to counter their weakness on the East side. They might pick-up Saint Boniface, but they won't pick this one up.



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