Update:
10:48 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:43 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
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Winnipeg South Centre
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Independent
Jeffrey Anderson
Libearl/libéral
Anita Neville
Conservative/conservateur
Michael Richards
Green/Vert
Vere H. Scott
Progressive Canadian
Dale Swirsky
Canadian Action
Magnus Thompson
NDP/NPD
Mark Wasyliw

Incumbent:
Anita Neville

2004 Result:
Anita Neville
18133
Raj Joshi
10516
James Allum
8270
Ian Scott
1508
Andy Caisse
293
Magnus Thompson
114
Andrew Dalgliesh
81

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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20 01 05 Brian F
Well, this should be going into the Too Close to Call category. The Winnipeg Free Press published a poll showing Richards and Neville neck and neck at 32% and the NDP canadidate not far behind at 25%. This may prompt some vote switching from the NDP to the Libs but this is no longer an automatic for the Liberals.
19 01 06 River Heights Guy
I agree that this riding will be closer than normal but it will stay Liberal. This is a Liberal riding and there are enough core-supporters to get the Liberal candidate through even in the worst of times. Plus, Richards is single and doesn't live in the riding, therefore he does not have the same network of support to rely on.
Nothing can be made of the sign war because Anita has always lost the sign war whereas Richards has had to be very aggressive on signs so he can build name recognition.
Liberals will this, but not quite as easily as in the past.
19 01 06 STV
Time to put this riding squarely in either the too close to call column, or the Conservative column. A new global news poll puts Mike Richards and Anita Neville both at 32% in the riding, and the NDP fellow has 25%. Seeing that the Tories nationally have momentum, that alone would make a Richards victory seem likely. But the poll also interestingly showed that while Anita is far ahead in Young Voters, Michael is winning hands-down amongst seniors. And it would be fairly safe to say that the senior turnout will be somewhat higher than the youth.
19 01 06 CKP
I don't buy the idea that this riding can go Conservative. Anita had one of the largest margins of all Liberals in the prairies in 2004. Granted, she's not the strongest MP, and her profile is lacking in the community, but these two things were also true in 2004, and they certainly didn't hurt her then. A sign war victory might be nice, but in the end, doesn't mean a whole lot. The demographics and past voting trend of this riding all suggest a Liberal win, albeit with a slightly decreased margin.
16 01 06 Dubya J. Hitlerburton
The Liberals are in a very close race in this riding - the Michael Richards campaign hit the ground running at the start of the election, and hasn't let up since. I have had nearly weekly mailings from the Conservatives, compared to a single flyer from Neville, and there are easily as many Richards signs up on private property in River Heights and Tuxedo as for Neville. Martin's visit just serves to highlight the fact that this is a real race for once. I'm interested to see if he stops by again this week on his cross-country...
15 01 06 STV
According to Reg, Anita is having a 'mid-campaign meltdown." And rightly so. The national campaign has been humiliating to many Liberals. I must note that this riding, which was quite upset when our Kapyong Barracks was moved to Rural Manitoba, must be especially insulted by the soldiers in cities ad. This can't help Anita, who largely runs on the coattails of federal Liberal popularity, of which little is left.
And locally, her campaign has been virtually invisible. She is losing the sign wars and has received little coverage (besides the cutsie pop-culture quiz in the free press). Finally, the NDP and the Conservatives both have very strong candidates, much stronger than the last election. I predict that the NDP and the Conservatives will both gain about 3-5 thousand votes all at the expense of Anita, which if you do the math means a victory for Michael Richards (who, if I may add, has had an exceptionally run campaign).
14 01 06 Watcher
Think about this folks, this is a riding that is in trouble for the Liberals. Traditionally, photos ops with the PM tend to be reserved for people who are in very swing ridings that could go either way. One would have expected PMPM to be spending time with Terry (where will you park me until the next election I can run in) Duguid - since they had such high hopes of unseating Joy Smith in Kildonan-St.Paul. Or maybe you might have thought he'd have been spending time with Tory turncoat John (opportunistic) Loewen in Charleswood, since they were soooo sure that they could unseat Steven Fletcher with that guy...after all, he had Olive McPhail's blessings you know. No, the PM was mugging with Anita...this is a very biiiig clue to anyone in the know. I have friends in Winnipeg South who are only dreaming this could happen to RegAlcock.
08 01 06 pax vobiscum
The Free Press had a two-page spead today, in which it asked one candidate from each party popular culture questions. Neville was the Liberal representative. It's hard to say what effect this might have on her candidacy. It helps with name recognition for sure, but she is already a household name in Winnipeg, and was before she became an MP. For most candiates I suspect this is an opportunity to lose votes by making ill-conceived remarks or unintentional double entendres. Neville missed that snare, and therefore probably benefitted slightly from this exposure.
The other factor that may help her in this campaign is that she has some very loyal followers. She has a good memory for names and faces, and exploits that ability well when she is back in Winnipeg.
She is also much more quick on her feet than many politicians-- in her first month as an MP, Frank magazine failed to "Frank prank" her.
At the same time, the Liberals are slipping now and the Conservatives are moving up. If there is a general shift to the Conservatives, as happened in 1984, she might be a victim.
09 01 06 Watcher
With less than 2 weeks to go in the campaign, Anita has done very little to get out the vote and has declined offers of assistance from those outside her immediate circle.
The thought pattern amoungst the local Liberal elite in this riding has been that it will always be Liberal, so they normally could run anyone here and win. That being said, there is genuine concern that the riding may go Conservative this time. Neville's performance as an MP has been lacklustre at best, and her public profile outside of the Liberal party has been somewhere between Jon Gerrard and Natalie Pollock. The local RA is in damage control mode.
08 01 06 M.T.
I walked through part of this riding this morning, and couldn't believe how many Richards sings there were... this in a predominantly Jewish area that traditionally votes Liberal. There has been a shift of sorts.
This doesn't mean that the Liberals don't still have a lot of support, but it is more soft and less confident. The question is how many people who normally vote Grit will simply abstain... I don't think this riding can be called at the moment, at least not for the Liberals.
20 12 05 Bweezy
I lived in this riding for 23 years. I drive my child to daycare through this riding every day, and my parents still live there. In my various travels through the riding, the one thing that has struck me is the complete lack of visibility of Ms. Neville's campaign. Michael Richards has got signs all over the place. There are stretches of middle class Corydon Avenue that are literally painted blue Wasiliw, the NDP Candidate, also has much signage, including three on ritzy Yale Avenue (this shocked me).
In my various travels through the riding, I've seen a grand total of 2 Neville signs.
This either means her support is soft, or her campaign hasn't geared up yet. With Neville, it's really hard to tell which one it is.
Neville also received much bad press when Winnipeg Free Press columnist Lindor Reynolds was not able to get a hold of Neville or her office for her column. Reynolds managed to contact representatives from all three other major parties in the riding, and the end result was that Neville did not look good in comparison. The photo that accompanied the article was a smiling Reynolds trying to pull open Neville's locked campaign office door.
Lastly, as stated before, her appearances with Paul Martin suggest that she may be in a wee bit of trouble. If she weren't, one would have think that a candidate from one of the other "too close to call" seats would have been a more logical choice for Martin to appear with and benefit from the visibility.
Put all of this together, and one can draw the conclusion that the Liberals are in trouble here.
I personally think the Liberals will pull it off. Their polling numbers still appear to be good in Manitoba. That being said, one gets the impression that Neville's uninspired campaign could cause many Liberals to just stay home on Election day, which may make this riding vulnerable.
14 12 05 vintage hope
Hmmmmm......... Paul Martin is in Winnipeg, he goes to a whole bunch of events but the Photos from the day are of Martin and Anita (both the Sun and the Press). Why not highlitht St James or Kildonan, aren't those the close races ?? what is going on with the Liberals that they are so concerned with Winnipeg South Centre ? When the Prime Minister flys in they don't waste the photo-op on someplace they assume is safe.
Rumor has it that their polling has this much closer than you would think. This is one to watch.
12 12 05 Swindon Oaks
The general theme on this board is that Neville is a very weak MP. As a Winnipegger from the riding you will get no arguments from me. It is amazing though, how quickly this went from a high-profile riding with Lloyd Axworthy to Anita Neville basically being acclaimed off of his legacy for likely a third time. I think that speaks little of Neville, who has done little in 5 years. Truth be told, there are plenty of high-profile people in this riding who have far more influence in the Liberal caucus than Neville. This will stay Liberal, although if either the NDP or CPC had a stronger candidate that could inspire confidence, they could this from Anita's moribund grasp.
12 12 05 Paul
Winnipeg's south center is a Liberal stronghold, demographically mind you. A large portion of people voted conservative last time, and Neville is not a strong candidate for the Liberals. That being said, the conservatives still are withing grasping range, a young lawyer like Michael Richards could be enough to turn this Liberal area blue.
06 12 05 vintage hope
OK, I thought that South Centre was going firmly Liberal this election. The liberals would put out the same last minute message that they have for the past four elections - don't vote NDP because it will split the left vote and elect a Conservative (last election they actually had canvasers walking from NDP sign to NDP sign "inviting their NDP friends to vote Liberal because Stephen Harper is so Scarey"). Every election the NDP in South Centre can feel it's vote slip away in the last four days.......... but low things have changed.........we have a second conservative party running. The Progressive Canadian Party is running Dale Swirsky (a very nice Guy) and is actively and aggressively courting Red Tories. Add that to a weak green party candidate and the strongest NDP candidate ever run in South Centre and this will be one to watch. I'm choosing the NDP because that's where my hearty lies and I kind of think they deserve to win, but really this will be a close one, and anything could happen depending upon the National campaigns and the ground game in South Centre.
24 11 05 Craig
Liberal win although narrower than in the past. This isn't the strongest Liberal riding, even in Winnipeg, and Anita Neville has been a pretty quiet backbencher, but there isn't enough strength for either the NDP or Tories here for a steal unless AdScam hits the Liberals very hard here. Predicted results: LIB 39%, CPC 33%, NDP 24%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
15 11 05 Bear and Ape
A CPC win in WSC is far less ridiculous prediction than a Liberal win in WN, but it still isn't very likely. First the numbers, CPC has not changed much in the numbers since the last election, save for several temporary blimps. But numbers change and the could go either way. As for Neville, yeah she isn't exactly making waves in parliament, but everyone (including us) thought that she could be in trouble in 2004. We were all wrong and she won with over 8000 votes. That is ALOT of ground for the CPC to make up, especially when their fortunes have not improved all that much.
15 11 05 James
This will be a tight race. Word on the street is the liberal polling has them worried about this seat. Look for Reg Alcock and gang to spread himself too thin with WPG south, WPG south centre and Charleswood-st.james. A close conservative steal.
24 06 05 Mathias
Last time I thought Neville was going to lose this seat but now that I saw how solidly she won it last time, I can't see the next election being any different. I believe the Tory candidate this time is a bit stronger than the previous choice but this is still a Liberal riding in terms of its demographics. Plus, the sponsorship scandal fallout really seems to have waned and as a result I don't think we'll be seeing the kind of Tory sweep necessary to win this seat.
12 05 05 STV
Tory steal here. Neville is a completely unremakable MP who is buoyed by only her Liberal brand. Now that the Liberal brand is tainted, I think she will lose alot of the Jewish vote and the centrist vote to the Conservatives. It will be a tight result, but I think we can expect this year to be Neville's last
09 05 05 A.M. Malmed
This riding has been a Liberal stronghold for years, and nothing is about to change with this election. Ms. Neville is well liked by her constituents, which is a testimony to her constant energy and public presence in the riding. The NDP and Conservatives are best off focusing their energies elsewhere because this is a riding that is a lost cause for them.
08 05 05 PB
Now hang on a second...there are Conservative ridings in Manitoba (like Provencher) there are New Democrat ridings (like Elmwood-Transcona) and there are Liberal ridings (like Winnipeg South). This isn't one of those. Neville is a pretty weak link in this chain, and the Liberals are already starting from a weaker point. Adscam+a strong Tory could equal a PC win...for that matter, Adscam+a weak Tory + a strong NDP +low voter turnout could equal an NDP win with 35%. A Liberal win may be the most probable outcome, but this one is far, far from decided.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Anita Neville will have no trouble being re-elected since the liberals are strong across the riding while the Conservatives are largely limited to the Western portion and NDP to the Eastern Portion. Also her strong pro-Israeli stance will likely go well amongst the Jewish community. Besides she won by 20% so short of a liberal melt down, this will stay liberal.



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