Prediction Changed
10:15 PM 20/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Toronto Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Boyden, Johan
Derome, Gerald
Fernandez, Philip
Gentili, David Peter
New Democratic
Khaki, El- Farouk
Michelson, Ellen
Rae, Bob
Animal Alliance Environment Voters
White, Liz

Hon. Bob Rae

2006 Result:
Bill Graham **
Michael Shapcott
Lewis Reford
Chris Tindal
Johan Boyden
Michel Prairie
Liz White
Philip Fernandez

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 21 mikeb
Before today, I would have said Bob Rae would win this seat. Since the Conservative candidate resigned today, you can take it to the bank that Bob Rae will win this riding. Can you believe that there's now 2 former Conservative candidates no longer running in this riding? Mark Warner, anyone? Bob Rae already was winning the sign war in the north part of the riding. He should pick up even more votes there now the Conservatives are this messed up. I doubt many would vote for the NDP as their second choice.
08 09 18 Marshall Howard Bader
Look for Premier Bob to win this one in a walk as he marches closer to becoming National leader of the Liberal Party. THe NDP is strong in the south end (Cabbagetown/Gay Village/Regent Park etc.); the Tories are strong in the Snooty north end (Rosedale etc). Rae will be strong across the riding and will run up a massive plurality that will only look small when compared with the Ontario debt he ran up the soaring university tuition fees he introduced and number of union collective agreements he stripped as Premier Bob.
08 09 15 MH
This is ultra-safe Liberal territory, and the Conservatives seem more than happy to leave it that way. You have to wonder why the party bothers to run a candidate, since it has shown reluctance to nominate anyone who might actually attract some real support. The CP may well win a majority nationally, but it will probably come in fourth in T-C. The NDP and the Greens will do battle over who comes in second.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Rae won by a mile in a by-election, and the seat has been Liberal since Jesus was in short pants. Easy Liberal hold.
08 03 18 binriso
So it was pretty much the snoozer that everyone expected and even more so actually than anyone here thought (margin of ~46%). Rae wins with ~60% of the vote and no one else gets higher than 13.6%. Greens did pretty well with almost a 2nd place finish here, but that wont likely hold in the federal election coming up in the next year or so because they cant focus their campaign as much as they did when only 4 ridings were in play. I think the NDP are actually relatively big losers(not nearly as much as the Liberals though)in the by-elections since they did poorly everywhere(especially in the 416) in comparison to 2006 except in Saskatchewan. Also the 25% voter turnout or so probably made the result more one-sided than it should be, although not by much.

By-election Prediction
Toronto Centre

08 03 17 King of Kensington
Of course Bob will take this in a landslide. My sense is that while the NDP will come in second, they won't do quite as well this time as Michael Shapcott seemed to have a bigger presence than El-Farouk Khaki does in the riding. While the NDP seems to run stronger candidates federally (i.e. Shapcott and Khaki) than provincially (Gene Lara and Sandra Gonzalez seemed to be sacrificial lambs), for whatever reason EFK never really got off the ground, perhaps because of Rae's superstar status and his ability to appeal to the soft NDP vote. Don Meredith is indeed a horrible fit for the riding, which explains Rae's dominaniting of the sign war north of Bloor. Chris Tindal seems to have quite a presence, but I believe the Green vote is overestimated, though the Greens coming in third isn't outside the realm of possibility.
08 03 14 seamus
Rae will win this one with almost 60% support. He'll syphon votes from the NDP particularly in the St.Lawrence neighbourhood & Cabbagetown, pick up Red Tory-David MacDonald vote in Rosedale, the vote of those who'd like a potential leader as MP and retain traditional Liberal-Graham-Smitherman vote. Unlike others, I think the Green vote is being overestimated (as always) and the Tory vote underestimated.
My prediction is as follows:
Rae (LIB) 57%;
Meredith (CP) 17%;
Khaki (NDP) 12%;
Tindal (GP) 12%;
Other 2%.
08 03 04 canrocks
Here's my prediction:
45% Bob Rae, Liberal
27% Chris Tindal, Green Party
15% El-Faroukh Khaki, NDP
13% Don Meredith, Conservative
The Greens are running an incredibly strong campaign in this riding, and on top of that I think they'll capture the voice of dissent in this riding. The candidate, Chris Tindal, has regularly been stunning audiences at debates. He's got a strong organization around him, and his numbers will be turning a lot of heads. Having said that, Bob is going to take the riding. No doubt. But let's look at the other parties.
This was never a strong conservative riding to start with. And now they have this Meredith character, who's practically a write-in candidate. He's an unmotivating orator and his policy strength is in gun crime, which rings shallow with most voters. He's anti-gay and this riding contains Church-Wellesley. Enough said.
Conversely, the NDP candidate is very active in the community and especially well known in Church Wellesley. But the NDP has also been historically weak in the riding.
All this comes together to make Chris Tindal the riding's second place candidate. This fact will become self-reinforcing if it becomes more public. Come St. Paddy's day, this will be the riding to watch for sure.
08 02 28 Matt
There is no doubt in my mind who is going to win this riding however, I would like to point out Chris Tindal of the Greens has already raised over 50,000 dollars from inside the riding and I suspect he'll capture atleast 15% with the type of campaign he's running.
Liberal- 50% (Its Bob.)
Green- 17% (Based on campaign)
NDP- 16% (Great candidate- campaign not as strong)
Conservative- 16% (parachute social conservative- won't do well)
Other- 1% (There are about three Fringe candidates I think)
08 02 16 PY
Unfortunately, it seems that the Chinese New Year's card drop is echoing the ‘Indian Day’ gaffe of 2004. Non-Chinese residents in this riding (and in Vancouver Quadra) whose last name happens to be Lee were included and there's no doubt there are those who aren't amused at all in receiving those cards in the mail. Excellent bit of outreach, Jason Kenney!
08 02 04
The Prime Minister appears to have mail a Chinese New Year Greetings’ card to every households with a Chinese last name in this riding and in Vancouver Quadra. Brilliant move indeed if it is true.
08 01 19 King of Kensington
Things just couldn't be better for Bob Rae...the Conservatives picked Don Meredith as their candidate who is just about the worst fit for this socially progressive riding. I can't see Rosedalians getting too excited about a Pentecostal minister. I can honestly see the Tories falling below deposit level here!
08 01 07 JKY
While Bobby Rae will probably win this seat quite easily, it will be very interesting to me to see whether ha can even come close to the results that Bill Graham used to get.
Some reasons: 1) It's a by-election, weird stuff happens (a la Outremont)
2) Dion still hasn't established leadership d credentials, and there is still a lot of pent uip bitterness in the Liberal party that may lead some lLib. non-Rae supporters to sit on their hands
3) the Gay vote. Many in the Gay Community still feel betrayed (as do many other left-leaning small l liberals who supportede Rae provincially) Rae ran on a stron pro Gay-rights platform but failed to get whipped votes on Gay issues, allowing them to die on the order paper.
4)Turncoat factor. Dippers will be out for blood on this one, and don't expect a whole lot of soft dippers to vote Liberal in a by election.
I expect a Rae win by between 5 and 10 %. The Cons shot themselves in the foot by denying Warner a shot. Some Cons may vote NDP ‘Strategically’ hoping to upset Rae.
07 12 03 seasaw
Bob Rae's got this one in a cakewalk. The riding's been traditionally Liberal with the exception of the David Crombie years. It is true David MacDonald did win over Bill Graham in '88 but it was very close. The riding's had a tradition of Big name MP's such as Donald McDonald, David Crombie and Bill Graham. Now, Bob Rae is the only Big name candidate and unfortunately neither the Tories nor the NDP have a candidate who can match Rae's name recognition. Advantage Rae.
07 11 02 PY
Mark Warner's out as the CPC candidate in the riding thanks to the mechanizations from the top of the party. I bet there'll be some grassroots Tories who might be more inclined to sit this one out in disgust regardless of who'll be installed instead as their candidate. Bottom line: smoother sailing for Rae.
07 11 02 King of Kensington
Bob Rae's coronation has gotten even easier. Mark Warner, a Red Tory, has been dropped by the party - apparently because he attended the AIDS conference and supports affordable housing. This validates the worst fears of many Red Tories skeptical of the merger even more. Now the ceiling for the Tory in TC with Harper at the helm is probably around 23% or so it doesn't amount to much. Still, a lot of the old PC vote that may have been comfortable voting for Warner is now likely to go over to Rae (and maybe a smattering going Green). OTOH the Conservative vote under Harper has been so low - 18% in '06 and falling below deposit level in '04 - it's hard to see it drop that much, even if Tory activists in the riding won't be campaigning hard for Warner's replacement.
07 10 15 King of Kensington
El-Farouk Khaki, a gay Muslim immigration lawyer and human rights activist, is running for the NDP and he is a much stronger candidate than the woman who ran in the provincial election. He is just about the best candidate the NDP can run here. He will certainly make this race interesting and could certainly force Rae to actively campaign and not take the riding for granted. That being said, I think Rae will take this by a comfortable margin.
07 10 09 Will
People give Rae more credit than he deserves. Rae is not an established Liberal, and while he does have the name recognition factor going for him, that very same factor goes against him.
Does anyone remember his record in office as Premier? There are more than enough people in Toronto Centre who do remember, and they will either vote for the NDP or Conservatives, or stay at home. Bill Graham was/is a completely different man and Rae cannot count on absorbing his votes just like that.
I am predicting 33% for the NDP, 31% for the Liberals, 26% for the Conservatives, 9% for the Greens and 1% for others. The NDP and Conservatives will fight this one passionately, just because of who Bob Rae is. It will be *the* most fascinating race of the federal election, in my opinion.
07 10 04 Daniel
The snoozefest that we'll see in the Toronto ridings will be an interesting contrast to the vigorous by-elections in Quebec and Saskatchewan (heck, even Vancouver Quadra is looking like it might be mildly interesting to watch). We saw conventional electoral paradigms shattered in Quebec, but Ontario voters will have none of that. Bob Rae will, predictably, win here with a huge margin.
In fact, the last time Ontarians suprised us in an election was that time back in 1990 when they elected that NDP government led by...oh, what was that guy's name...
07 09 18 devil'sadvocate
I wonder how last evening's events in Quebec will flavour this (and the other 2 campaigns).In Toronto Centre, Willowdale and Vancouver-Quadra, the people advocating for the Liberals are actually very convincing. As someone who is not a Rae fan, I actually wince as I tend to agree with the folks saying it will be an easy ride for him. I do however, wonder if Dion and the Libs in general have a 'loser' stink on them that will start to effect all their 'easy wins' that are coming. Voters are a funny breed. Sometimes a little like cattle. If all of a sudden the larger herd seems to be heading in a direction, some soft liberal cows (strictly in the metaphors sense), might start moving along.
07 07 30 M. Lunn
This will be nothing more than a coronation for Bob Rae. The only interesting thing will be to see how well the Tories do in Rosedale (which is the only somewhat Tory friendly part of the riding) and the NDP in cabbagetown and Regent park. However, with the Liberals being competitive in both areas while the NDP and Tories being dead elsewhere in the riding Bob Rae should coast to victory here.
07 07 30 A.V.
This is less of a lock for Bill Graham in a by-election than it would be in a general election. Many Liberals who are hostile to Bob Rae might choose to stay home in a by-election when a Liberal government isn't in the balance, while NDP voters will be hyper-energised. Moreover, some of those vast Liberal majorities were a personal mandate of Bill Graham, one of Toronto's most respected MPs. That being said, I doubt the traditional Liberal strength can be overcome, and Bob Rae will be an extremely formidable campaigner with a significant personal constituency of his own.
07 07 26
No need for ESP here. Bob Rae wins by at least 50 percent of the vote.
07 07 17 binriso
When i thought of Toronto Center, I figured that the NDP would be a lot stronger here than they are. Bill Graham won by almost 30% over the NDP last time with the Conservatives a more distant third place. I’d have to think that Bob Rae would have no trouble winning here for the Liberals. Really how long can Ontario hold some sort of grudge against him? For god sakes its been 15 years almost and some people are still complaining about the Rae Days and his government.
I think that Rae will really dominate if a by-election is held soon.
Something Like:
Bob Rae- 60%
CONS- 19%
NDP- 18%
Rest- 3%
Although I could be pretty far off with this, im certain he will win anyways and pretty comfortably.
07 04 14 A.S.
Something to keep in mind: in 2004, in the Rosedale-inflected Polls 1-25, Bill Graham tallied over 60%, almost 4 points above par. In 2006, those same polls were just under 46%, 6 1/2 points below par. Certain proof that ‘Martin Liberal’ leakage was greatest among the ex-PC moneyed class? (Though a less incompetent local Tory campaign helped--and another possible reflection of ‘ex-PCness’ is that the Greens were 1 1/2 points above par in those same polls.) Once a solid red vs. blue seat federally, Toronto Centre has seen the NDP stake a rather zealous (albeit justified-on-paper by municipal representation) claim to ‘official’ opposition for most of the past decade--and in spite of Harper's raised stature among the affluent, the claim may still hold, if only because of the symbolism attached to the Liberal they're now running against. It's a stake-in-the-heart crusade now. Big deal; Bob Rae will still win, because N and S of Bloor will cancel each other out, as per recent-pattern usual...
07 04 02 Stevo
Wow - could Bob Rae have possibly chosen a safer riding than this? He will be a strong and competent Liberal opposition MP, provided he doesn't sing ‘Solidarity Forever’ on the floor of the House of Commons.
07 03 25 King of Kensington
No doubt that Rae will coast to victory here. TC is a very safe Liberal riding. The only question is how big Rae's margin will be and whether he'll do better north or south of Bloor. In other words, will he be more of a more liability among NDP/Liberal swing voters in the south or ‘Martin Liberals’/Red Tory fence-sitters in the north?
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Bob Rae may have been controversial as premier, but since then he has greatly improved his image. With a cabinet post almost guaranteed if the Liberals win and the fact he is a strong debater, he will make a strong MP in either opposition or government. He may be controversial in the Rosedale sections which are centre-right, but any losses there will be easily offset in cabbagetown, Regent Park, and other parts of the riding, which lean left, where Rae is quite popular.
07 03 20 EP
If Bob Rae actually wins the nomination as most expect him to, this riding would stay Liberal. However, if the nomination goes to Meredith Cartwright, a dangerously unpredictable character (who recently urged the CFS to picket a Liberal event!), the Liberal can easily lose this otherwise safe riding.
07 03 19 Brian Appel
It doesn't really matter that Rae is facing a contested nomination. Smitherman has a machine already setup in the riding to make sure that Bob wins the nomination and the seat. Bob Rae is an excellent politician, and a future leader for the Liberals. Love him or hate him, he'll be an excellent Member for the Liberal caucus.

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