Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Toronto Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:29 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:50 PM 14/03/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Gabriel Draven
Philip Fernandez
Dan Goldstick
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bill Graham
Megan Harris
Canadian Action canadienne:
Kevin Peck
Michael Shapcott
Parti Marijuana Party:
Jay Wagner

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Toronto Centre-Rosedale (98.9%)
Hon. Bill Graham
St. Paul's (0.5%)
Hon. Carolyn Bennett
Toronto-Danforth (0.6%)
Dennis Mills

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,550 55.72%
7,578 17.20%
4,916 11.16%
4,523 10.27%
2,492 5.66%

Toronto Centre-Rosedale
(193/212 polls, 77259/82890 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. Paul's
(3/223 polls, 429/79237 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(2/183 polls, 444/68684 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 TB
Email: [hidden]
Prediction for Toronto Centre: Bill Graham. Three reasons:
(1) This riding has traditionally oscillated between Conservatives and Liberals. It has never elected an NDP MP. A successful Conservative candidate banks on the wealthy Rosedale residents and convinces enough others below Bloor Street that he or she is not a hard right conservative. That is very difficult to do with Harper as leader. A successful NDP candidate could only win by winning almost 100% of the polls south of Bloor because they have never even come close and will never come close to winning any polls north of Bloor in Rosedale. That is a reason why, mathematically, it could only be Bill Graham.
(2) Bill himself virtually guarantees his own win: he is well liked in the riding (NOW Magazine has voted him Toronto's best MP for what, 8 years in a row now), he is very attentive to local interests and knows them very intimately, he is and has always been unequivocal in his support for gay rights (even if his party has been a little more equivocal), and he is done at the least an admirable job as Minister of Foreign Affairs. By contrast, Megan Davis is a virtual unknown, doesn't seem too keen on getting elected and was an embarrassment in the all-candidates debates on June 21 (how many times can you respond that you have no position but will look into it and with only a week to go!). Shapcott will certainly ride Layton's coattails and has been a good advocate for the homeless so it's not only Layton's coattails, but I think Layton supporters and NDP partisans grossly overstate the length of those coattails. The NDP have flatlined across the country, province ! and city and Shapcott needs more than homelessness to convince middle-of-the road voters not to waste their vote.
(3) Finally, there is the fear factor. If the NDP are elected in Toronto Centre, just as anywhere in the country, the Conservatives are one step closer to forming a minority government and that has a lot of voters scared. I know of a lot of voters who want to punish the Liberals but not at any cost and they will come home to the Team Martin by June 28.
21/06/04 Alexander Inglis
Email: alexander.inglis@rogers.com
I attended the all candidates meeting Sunday night at the 519 Community Centre. All eight (!) candidates showed up for a well-attended (200?) and well-run meeting. Bill Graham is certainly the guy to beat: he's been an effective riding spokesman for three terms. His vulnerability is *solely* based on being Liberal. Several thousand condo units that used to be in the riding have been put into Trinity St Pauls. As a result, I think the Conservatues under Megan Harris risk coming in third. The NDP candidate Michael Shapcott is saleable but I don't think has the "presence" to win. Without any question, the Green's Gabriel Draven will make a strong fourth place showing (he ran well provincially in October).
21/06/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: [hidden]
Previous posters have commented on the abundance of Shapcott signs so I won't harp on about this fact. One additional thing to consider is that Layton is completing his touring in THIS riding, participating in the pride parade, which convenient for the NDP is the day before E-day. A week of promotion and discussion over the NDP's superior stance on same-sex rights will push this over the top for Shapcott.
18/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
This may sound far fetched but I beleive NDP will take it. The Jack factor is very much at work here. Graham will slip dramatically and the Conservative vote will hold. Shapcott in a 3-way split. The NDP,s rise in the polls after the debate, with the other parties stalled at 31, pretty much clinches it.
18/06/04 Semer
Email: [hidden]
The NDP's Shapcott is missing one key element to win Toronto Centre. He expresses absolutely no personal commitment to Layton's environmental platform. Shapcott isn't interested in environmental protection. Therefore he will lose votes to Green Party candidate Gabriel Draven -- the very votes Shapcott needs to win the riding.
Shapcott can defeat Graham if Shapcott draws votes away from the Green Party. Otherwise many Toronto Centre residents will vote Green, thus depriving Shapcott of the margin he needs.
The feeling is that the NDP remains a "brown" party (with a green leader), while the Green Party is truly green. Shapcott does nothing to dispel this impression of the (brown) NDP.
18/06/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
Keen Observer: I don't think you're right about Graham running an especially strong campaign. It's certainly nowhere near as strong as Shapcott's. He just he has the incumbent's advantage. Too close to call.
As for "word on the street" there doesn't seem to be a love for Graham. He already looks bad on the issue of gay and lesbian equality (which explains his FIRST flyer two days ago plugging his support - probably wants to distance himself from Martin) and the waterfront (community activist Sue Sparrow denounced the Graham team for handing out literature claiming she supported him - and the crowd was not pleased). Again, this riding has some Liberal inclinations and the advantage of a Liberal incumbent, but Graham isn't riding a wave of popularity.
17/06/04 HubbaHubba
1. Ken Marshall
2. Aaron Bradley
3. some guy named Ken
4. the Alliance manager from 2000 and now John Adams...
That looks like 'gone through 4 campaign managers' to me.
16/06/04 Tim Young
Email: [hidden]
I am truly undecided at this time. As others have mentioned; this is a tough riding to call because of the wide demographic. I've been a loyal PC for many years, even through the crumbling of the party after the last election. Unfortunately Harper seems to be hampered by his Alliance background, and liberals/NDP is gaining the supporters scared off by his rehashing of the abortion and gay marriage issues. The NDP seem to be running a great campaign in the riding with lots of exposure. Where are the Conservatives? I live and work within the riding, and I can only say I've seen 6 signs maximum and no other materials from them. Personally I'm considering the platform of the Green Party; it might be time for change from the traditional party politics. However I predict a tight race between the NDP and the Liberal, but I think Graham will squeak through.
14/06/04 Alex Hamilton
Email: [hidden]
Toronto Centre should not be judged on signs. The information I am hearing on the street is that Mr. Graham is personnelly popular and will be re-elected. Getting back to signs, if you look at the NDP signs, unless they are at ground level, you can barley see them. The Liberal signs are bigger and brighter.
14/06/04 Keen Observer
Email: [hidden]
In fairness to Megan Harris, she's only gone through two campaign managers not four, and you can't blame her for trying to talk up someone in a power suit as she's been out of work since her sudden "departure" from Janet Ecker's office in 2002. Anyways, he's probably a likely supporer! While her campaign has been a disaster (they recently moved campaign offices, of all things) she can count on at least a few thousand votes from Rosedale. Both the Liberals and NDP have been running very strong campaigns (Graham espec), but there is a swelling of NDP support in Toronto. I'd expect results along the lines of Graham 19,000, Shapcott 12,000, Harris 7,000.
13/06/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
There are Liberal candidates who deserve to be trounced. Bill Graham is not one of them. This riding is definately one of the safest Toronto seats. He is popular among the Rosedale richies and the downtown crowd.
10/06/04 TC Resident
Email: fctop30@yahoo.ca
This riding should be pushed into the too close to call category. This will be a very close race. I believe that Michael Shapcott will edge out slightly over Graham. South of Bloor looks to be going to Shapcott overwhelmingly. Shapcott has been endorsed by Community Air co-fouder Sparrow and I've heard they have over 1000 sign locations out. I went into the office yesterday and the phones were ringing off the hook, there were tonnes of volunteers streaming in and out foot canvassing, doing literature drops and they were bringing people upstairs to their phone bank. What really amazed me were the volunteers. About half of their volunteers are under 30. The Shapcott campaign is everywhere! I've heard people tell me on the streets that the NDP is fighting hard for the seat. I think it will be close but I think that the NDP will win this seat.
10/06/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
I think it's time to pull this from the Liberal win category and put it at least into the TCTC call ranks. Shapcott signs are sprouting all over the riding, even in places where you wouldn't be expecting to see them, and his troops have been heavy on the ground. Moreover, there are credible, if somewhat biased, rumours floating that he's even pulled ahead of Graham. This may not be the case, but I don't think that Graham is by any means safe any more. The NDP has a shot.
09/06/04 HubbaHubba
Unfortunatly, Megan Harris the CPC candidate has apparently blown alot of the chances given to her. I am a Conservative (grudgingly), and have heard through the grapevine that she has gone through something like 4 or 5 campaign managers, including a couple big name organizers in the party.
I own a mid-sized business in the riding, and when I called to volunteer her team was more concerned with getting my name on their website as an endorser, than having me canvass or put uup some signs.
I live in the riding and noticed Megan and her team at the subway handing out flyers, and had a chance to stand across the street for a few. In the 5 minutes I was standing there, she was more interested in talking to 1 guy in a power suit, than making sure the 200 people that walked past her got a flyer.
Seems like she is more interested in rich people knowing who she is rather than getting votes.
With a weak CPC campaign, and Bill Graham being fairly well liked in the riding, I just dont see how he can lose.
09/06/04 resident of Thunder Bay
Email: [hidden]
It was with great interest that I read an article in the Thunder Bay newspaper indicating a strong lack of support for Joe. The comment was "so what has he done in the last five terms?" Joe is now 70 years old and had an opportunity to bow out gracefully. Does he really have the drive to do the job for another five years? Knowing the Thunder Bay community he will probably win the riding.
08/06/04 DK
Email: [hidden]
Shapcott is running a strong campaign with an army of volunteers that rivals that of either Layton or Chow. From my observations Shapcott’s signs far outnumber Graham’s. This is particularly so outside of Rosedale which is, as usual, will split between Conservative and Liberal voters. This will definitely be an NDP pickup if Layton (to the immediate east) and Chow (to the immediate west) have coattails like McDonough did in Halifax in 1997. Don’t underestimate the potential for backlash from voters angry at Smitherman and the provincial Liberals.
07/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Too close to call. Liberals extremely vulnerable to Jack Layton coattail effect. This one has never been won by the NDP though. New Tories have no growth potential here ; the old PC vote might even peel away elsewhere. How can this riding resist the trend so evident across downtown? Watch the polls, if the NDP hit 25 provincewide, this one could turn orange too.
04/06/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
The posters suggesting that this is a "rich" riding...well, yes it certainly has some of Canada's richest people, yes. They're concentrated north of Bloor Street, in Yorkville, Rosedale and Moore Park. But as a percentage of voters - I think three-quarters come from south of Bloor. It includes Toronto's poorest neighborhoods (Regent Park and St. Jamestown), the mixed St. Lawrence area, yuppieish Cabbagetown and some ritzy condos in the Bay Street corridor. Overall, it's an upscale/downscale riding. "Average" household income implies the mean - so the people making huge incomes skew the average way up in a riding such as this. MEDIAN household income is a much more accurate measure, and in this measure, TC isn't anywhere close to third. It's a riding of great contrasts - high in terms of mean household income, average value of owner-occupied units and university degrees, but also among the most impoverished and lowest in terms of median household income.
At first, I thought Graham had a lock on this riding. The David Crombie-type Red Tories don't fit in the Harper-led party (they're likely to vote for Graham or perhaps quite a few will vote Green since it's a fiscally conservative, pro-business party), so the Tories have no chance of winning here. But now Liberal Party strategists, however, have conceded that they're likely to lose a good deal - perhaps most of their seats - in the old city core of Toronto. In Cabbagetown, where George Smitherman signs (and votes) far outnumbered those of Gene Lara in the provincial election, but now Shapcott's signs far outnumber Graham's. Church and Wellesley also looks like it will go NDP this time around. The St. Lawrence coops are also not likely to vote "strategically" for the Liberals this time around. With a focus on urban issues, and a popular Toronto leader who represented parts of this riding for years - I think the NDP is in the best shape ever in terms of winning here. I'll still give a slight advantage to Graham, but I think it's too close to call. Anyway, it certainly should be interesting.
04/06/04 Think About It
Email: [hidden]
A brief note in response to DTC's comment on June 2nd that "this riding will never go anywhere near a conservative candidate, no matter the name of the party": as the saying goes, 'never say never'. Toronto Centre has repeatedly elected federal conservative candidates in the past twenty years (David Crombie and David MacDonald). I would agree, however, that this riding won't elect the conservative candidate in THIS election. And, oh, by the way ... I'm by no means a Liberal supporter.
02/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
People predicting an NDP victory here are wildly out of touch with reality. Look at the riding's demographics. A Conservative gain is probably more likely than one by the NDP. Not that I think a Conservative win is more than an idle dream (or nightmare, take your pick). If the Tories win here it will be as part of an enormous shift in voter support, one not predicted by the polls so far. The backwoods of Ontario seem to be shifting to support the Conservatives, and the 905 belt may do so as well. But it seems very unlikely that most Torontonians, including those living in this riding, will have forgotten or forgiven the vicious way in which the provincial Tories put the boot to Toronto. So, absent mass amnesia, Bill Graham is safe.
02/06/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
this riding will never go anywhere near a conservative candidate, no matter the name of the party. Megan Harris has a snowballs chance in hell of winning here. Micheal Shapcott puts an interesting twist in this race though. Shapcott has the profile gained from Bread not Circuses, as well as some strong NDP friends running nearby (Layton and Chow). Then there is Bill Graham. Graham is a strong, likeable Minister who has had overwhelming support in this riding with nearly 56% last time out. Shapcott may have stopped the Olympics from coming to Toronto, but I think Graham will steam-roll him into the ground.
01/06/04 Think About It
Email: [hidden]
A few facts to add to recent statements here: speaking from my first-hand experience, Mr. Shapcot's literature hasn't appeared in many homes in the riding and his signs aren't all that much in evidence. Ditto for Ms Harris. In fact, there aren't really that many lawns in this riding (as compared to apartment dwellers) upon which to place signs! From the election results I've reviewed from the past few elections, north of Bloor has been (if only marginally) blue, and strong NDP support has been limited to a few pockets of the riding. There is no reason to suspect that this will change substantially in this election. In addition, the new riding boundaries, which are based on population, may leave Toronto Centre with a high number of newcomers who, even though they display signs or otherwise show their support, aren't qualified to vote. Unless something unexpected occurs to erode Mr. Graham's support, there simply isn't any contest in this riding.
01/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Bill Graham for sure. Three BIG factors against Shapcott:
1. He's got no profile on federal issues, versus Graham who's on TV every other day, and who held the line on many tough issues even when he had to deal with wholly contradictory demands. Experience will favour Graham.
2. Notice the 2000 vote had OTHERS 2,492 5.66% - the 2003 provincial ON results suggests that most of those (at least 2000 of them) are Green votes for the same candidate, Gabriel Draven. Draven's a business-minded Green who is not afraid of the press, and will probably increase his vote over 2003 federal results.
3. Shapcott is despised by many downtown classic music/opera/ballet types who will never forgive him for opposing the Ballet Opera House. ArtsVote is not going to shine on Shapcott, though homeless activists will favour him. Hey, $18,000/year classical musicians and dancers are voters too - and they talk to their supporters.
EASY pickup for Graham. NDP propaganda notwithstanding.
29/05/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
I was originally predicting a Graham victory here, with a very strong NDP showing. Now I think it's a tossup. Michael Shapcott seems to be running a very strong campaign, and the fact that Jack Layton running next door represented parts of this riding on City Council for years and is immensely popular downtown will help here. A building in the Church-Wellesley area that had 1 sign in 2000 has already had 30 requests. In the yuppie Cabbagetown area, Shapcott signs far outnumber Graham ones. The St. Lawrence area coop residents are very politically active and have been reinvigorated by having Shapcott run. The NDP is polling at around 20% in Ontario, and this increased support is disproportionately coming from the pre-merged city of Toronto.
Now nobody's really heard of Megan Harris, so she'll probably get no more than 20% of the vote, and the social liberalism of Rosedale/Yorkville won't help her (due to a perceived CA "takeover") and Graham will trounce her north of Bloor. But I believe about 75% of the vote is cast south of Bloor (and about 85% of residents live south of Bloor). If Shapcott can get 45% south of Bloor and 10% north of Bloor, he's competitive to win.
The Liberals are dropping in Ontario and many predict as many as 5 NDP seats being won in Toronto. I'd say this is #5 - behind Trinity-Spadina, Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York and Parkdale-High Park
Prediction: LIB 37%, NDP 37%, CPC 20%, others 6%
28/05/04 Think About It
Email: [hidden]
Provided the Liberals can keep their canoe from tipping over, Mr. Graham will triumph again. Megan Harris support is very shallow and many former Tories may not vote at all in this election. The NDP candidate is irrelevant -- it's Jack Layton that drives their support here, and Jack has as many detractors as he does friends. If you tour the riding a week after the writ was dropped, Mr. Graham has signs in place in abundance, signs for the others are nowwhere to be seen. They'll never catch up.
Email: tojersey@yahoo.ca
This a riding that *should* be solid for the NDP, but it isn't, and it won't become one this time. If the riding ended at Bloor, I'd give it to Shapcott, but since it extends north into Rosedale, Graham's as safe as a Liberal can be. (Megan Harris is a star candidate? Then why have I never heard of her before?)
27/05/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Definitely an ND pickup. It is well known that Graham was only keeping a cabinet seat warm for one of Paul Martin's incoming stars...
The silver spoon socialists in the rosedale part of the riding will vote ND. Add that to the ND support from the gay village and it will be a surprisingly easy win.
25/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Now, A.S. and Bear and Ape yet another time are close to perfection in their prediction. While this riding will be sandwiched between the two NDP ridings and Billy will be sandwiched between the left leaning couple *par excellence* this riding is at no risk whatsoever to go to the NDP. First of all, most of the "pre-merged city of Toronto" MPs are as left leaning as it gets be it Tony Ianno, Charles Caccia, Sam Bulte, Carolyn Bennett and yup.. you guessed it Bill Graham, I guess this is why they kept on getting re-elected... they can attract all types of people EASILY... from affluent, socially liberal and fiscally prudent business people working on Bay Street to newly proclaimed Canadian citizens still struggling to find work... Secondly, Toronto-Centre is the third richest riding in Canada with an average household income of $124,082 which is way above those of the neighboring T.-S. and T.-D....that certainly doesn't sound like an NDP turf doesn't it??? Thirdly, Graham is a high profile and popular minister and MP, why should people get rid of him??
25/05/04 JM
Email: [hidden]
How quickly we forget good ol' Mikey Shapcott and his Bread Not Circuses olympic-bid-torpedoing gang in Toronto. I would have thought that the New Dippers would be too far right for this guy - perhaps the Communist/Socialist/Marxist-Leninist parties would have been more appropriate? As to his war chest, I received his first lit drop in my building - looked like something done on a stenotype machine 30 years ago. I just -can't- see this guy as a problem for Mr. Graham.
24/05/04 J. Cherniak
Email: jason_cherniak@yahoo.ca
I have no doubt that Graham will win. St. James votes 4-1 Liberal, and it is not too hard to pull the vote when 20,000 people all live within a five minute walk and elevator ride. Campaigning with Graham the day the election was called, everyone on the street was excited to meet him. This is a no-brainer.
Email: [hidden]
Two weeks ago an internal liberal poll suggested that the Bill Graham and Michael Shapcott were in a statistical dead heat.
Michael Shapcotts campaign has raised almost $60,000 pre-writ. It has translated into an effective ground campaign that has seen between one and four literature drops into all homes/units in the riding. They have already put up almost 600 sign locations (Day one of campaign.)
There are MANY George Smitherman voters/supporter/donors signing onto the NDP campaign and offering money/work/support.
Look for BIG gains in this riding. People must remember that Jack Layton was the City Councillor for 9 years previous to Kyle Rae in this riding. Jack is well loved and supported in the 42 polls that make up the area of Bloor to Sherbourne to Gerrard To Yonge street. Of the 213 polls in the riding roughly 40 are in Rosedale / Moore Park area.
Shapcotts strengths are Regent Park (where he worked and lived in the '80's, St. Lawrence Area regarding Homelessness/Waterfront issues, Co-op (39 in the riding - 10% of all voters)where he is nationally recognized for his leadership role in housing strategy, Church Street/Gay Village (Jack Layton and Svend Robinson's popularity - as well as his own constant work in the community over the last 3 month).
I think that Bill Graham, although a nice man, disappeared from public view in this riding over two years ago. It is widely know that he was considering retirement and quit doing alot of the community work that he once did.
It will be a squeaker but the massive NDP machine that has been developed over the last year will over power Graham and Liberals.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Okay, our earlier prediction of no prediction needs to be revised. We often berated NDP supporters for thinking they could win the sun, moon and stars as soon as NDP support goes into double digits, but this time it was us who were looking through rose-coloured glasses. We earlier said that the NDP had a chance thanks to the Layton effect. Maybe in other ridings but not here. Graham is just too strong of a candidate, too good of an MP and this is just not the type of riding which would vote NDP. Sure-fire Liberal keep.
19/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Like Carolyn Bennett and John Godfrey--heck, even Allan Rock--Bill Graham epitomizes the most urbane and cosmopolitan aspect of 90s Toronto Liberalism; although as with Allan Rock, its success at the cabinet table can be mixed. Fundamentally, as a an effective political vessel for all the varied pains and issues that confront a diverse seat like this, he ought to be safe; although a great deal of what's south of Bloor is inherently NDP-friendly, the clout provided by Rosedale always leveraged this seat into starpower federal PC/Lib swing territory instead. (Provincially, too; which is why Ian Scott barely survived 1990's Rae sweep even as neighbours fell like dominoes.) Even if CPC ain't PC, I can't see them falling out of deposit territory--Rosedale's too strong for that--but I can't see them rising much above the quarter-votish united-right mean these past few elections, either. Of course, with Toronto Centre squeezed btw/ Jack & Olivia, paired with a general Toronto-core leftward swing, this is also a magic opportunity for the NDP to finally leverage itself into the contention it has always sought here (the ghost of which was evident in Ex-Tory Mr. Alexa's 1997 2nd-place finish). But to cinch that, you really need a candidate like Kyle Rae who'll "play well in Rosedale", and that's not something one associates with the old-fashioned south-of-Bloor rabble-rouserness of Michael Shapcott. Or in case of a sweep, *is* that really necessary? For now, the odds still favour Bill Graham if only out of voters' splits, but things can change...
12/05/04 T.B.
Email: [hidden]
Although I am not a Liberal supporter myself, after seeing how they did in the provincial election, it's no doubt that their supporters will be voting the Liberals again. Toronto Centre-Rosedale used to be a riding consisting of 2 worlds: the very wealthy, and the very poor. Things are starting to balance out now. Many middle-class people are living in neighbourhoods such as Cabbagetown, as well as recently constrcuted townhomes and condos. It's true that there is a very large LGBT population. But keep in mind that many are white-collar and have more conservative values, and therefore vote Liberal and even Conservative. I say Conservatives have no chance! NDP, a small chance. Liberal, very strong! After looking at the results of the last provincial election, you will see that Liberal had more than double or even triple the votes that NDP and Conservative each had.
06/05/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
It's true there was always a good PC base in this riding...except the PC's no longer exist and nowhere is the merger more opposed than in largely upscale urban "Red Tory" areas, like those in TC and St. Paul's. These "Red Tories" have been mostly Liberal since 1993 and I don't see that changing.
As for the foreign policy issue, I am certain as many - and probably more -people in TC oppose Liberal foreign policy from the LEFT (like the position against Star Wars) than from the right (like the position that Canada should have supported our "friends" in time of war).
John Adams, a Red Tory, got 22% here in the last provincial election. I'd be surprised if Megan Harris got more than Adams did.
01/05/04 The Masked Tory
I would not go so far as to predict a Conservative win here, but Megan Harris will make it a close three-way race. A little birdy passed me some information today about her campaign manager, and once the Liberals hear they might start to step it up a bit.
The candidate is the most important factor locally, but a good manager can make a huge difference in terms of organization, message and exposure in the riding and if what I hear is true, Megan has made a great choice in her manager. If its who I heard, he is a great Toronto based organizer with strong connections to a certain former candidate for mayor.....
TC has always had a strong PC presence, even in the lean years, and I would expect it to be invigorated by a strong national campaign.
I expect the NDP to run strong here, wedged between Jack and Olivia, and while Bill Graham is well liked, I am not sure how wide-spread that is throughout the riding.
Toronto Centre will be alot closer than alot of people expect.
Come on, do you really think that those infuriated by the flipflop on SSM are more likely to vote for the Conservatives than the NDP? Maybe the remaining Red Tories north of Bloor feel that way, but that's not the PRIMARY reason for voting Conservative, they probably would have done so anyway. Not to mention Red Tories are a dying breed and many old-style Toronto Tories would rather have Martin than Harper. So Graham will beat Harris north of Bloor by a significant margin.
South of Bloor is just about the most anti-Conservative area you can find. I expect Shapcott to run a strong campaign and Layton fits the area very well. In the Church-Wellesley area, the NDP enjoys well above-average support, whatever the claims about the "absurdity" of my claim by an earlier poster. Just look at poll-by-poll results, it's one of the NDP's strongest areas in the riding. The Conservatives on the other hand, I'm almost certain will do dismally. Why vote for a pro-SSM candidate for a party led by an SSM opponent and lots of radid reactionaries?
Perhaps my prediction of 13% is a bit low, since there's still enough Red Tories around to stand as candidates. But I'd be surprised if they got more than 20% and really shocked if they got more than 25%. Graham will keep this seat.
(New) prediction: LIB 43%, NDP 33%, CPC 16%, others 8%
19/04/04 S. Salamon
Email: [hidden]
While it is easy to predict that Bill Graham will reclaim his seat given his stature as a cabinet minister, it is more interesting to examine factors that could lead to his demise:
1) A strong CPC candidate. Megan Harris has strong ties in the community. She was drafted to run by influential members of the party. As such, her campaign should prove well organized and well funded.
2) Foreign policy being questioned. As a result of the Khadr case, the media are finally starting to question Canada's foreign policy. Until now, they have treated Mr. Graham's foreign policy decisions kindly including blocking Commonwealth sanctions against Zimbabwe prior to the 2002 elections, the failure to protect Bill Sampson in Saudi Arabia, the characterization of Iran's parliament as democratic in the Kazemi case, Canada's comdemnation of the LENGTH (rather than the existence) of prison sentences imposed on Cuban dissidents and Canada's failure to condemn human rights violations by Arab dictators.
3) The Liberal's failure to act on same-sex marriage. The Liberal's failure to act on same-sex marriage and Megan Harris' personal support for it should neutralize this as an issue in a riding with a substantial gay population.
14/04/04 Drumlin Hill
Email: [hidden]
I think it is logical to assume that Bill Graham will win this riding again with a good-sized margin. I would point out though that he does so not because this is a traditional safe seat for the Liberals, but because he is an excellent MP and since his appointment to Cabinet, widely recognized as an extremely competent Minister. He represents a side of the party that Canadians widely identify with. He is the type of politician that this country needs more of. He cares about the issues and not himself, like so many others. He will win because of all these reasons. It would simply be unfortunate for Canada and more importantly the residents of TC if it were not so.
27/03/04 Alexander Inglis
Email: towebguy@rogers.com
Bill Graham's Liberal seat is possibly one of the safest in the country. In general, the scandals at Foreign Affairs have not reflected back on the Minister. Graham was overlooked for a cabinet post until about 18 months ago when he was catapulted into his post -- so he is also untainted by the sponsorship scandals. He's got a good riding org and he's looked after his constituency. Jack Layton would have a tough time unseating him; and there are no star Conservatives/NDP running against him.
24/03/04 Jer
Email: Jer@jerscape.ca
As long as Bill Graham is running in this riding, no one else will win it. Period. And if someone does wrestle it away from the libs, it will be the Conservatives not the NDP.
20/03/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
Funny. I say the NDP will do well in certain parts of the riding though it will stay Liberal. Nonetheless, I'm a mere propagandist for the NDP??
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I had this down as NDP a while back in my own personal prediction. Things have changed since then, but I'll still put NDP down here again. I made this prediction without realizing who the incumbent MP was, and I may be wrong, but I'm still going to go out on a limb, and... for now... predict the NDP
18/03/04 C. Dunkley
Email: [hidden]
I doubt that your "Church-Wellesley 4 NDP" will have great sway, not in this website at least. Afterall, I saw Liberal signs on Milton's apartment balcony every election.
18/03/04 Charles Hayden
Email: [hidden]
As much as I'd like to see an NDP victory here, I'm almost certain Graham will prevail. While it does have the downtown progressive culture, much of this riding is north of Bloor (and thus NOT downtown) and very affluent in a business-oriented rather than cultural way, so north of Bloor is an NDP dead zone. I expect Shapcott will make a strong showing in Church-Wellesley (due to the Liberals' flip-flops on SSM), the housing coops in St. Lawrence and in champagne-socialist Cabbagetown. Most old Tory voters will mostly go over to Rosedale resident Bill Graham due to their social liberalism and Martin's Bay Street credentials.
Prediction: LIB 47%, NDP 33%, CPC 13%, others 7%
17/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
Over the past 11 years, Bill Graham has proven himself to be a very capable and credible MP. His fluency in French and his experience in cabinet will definitely be assets to him as he topples his opposition. The Conservatives and the NDP will both put up strong fights but Graham should be able to retain his seat by at least 10%.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
Normally we'd give this one to the Liberals without hesitation, however with all things considered (current strength of the NDP, the NDP leader coming from a neighbouring riding and the sponsorship fiasco) neither of us feel ready to declair this one yet. Current impressions is that this will probably go liberal. Time will tell...
11/03/04 JW
Clearly Graham's to lose, and he won't. Michael Shapcott will run a spirited campaign and improve the NDP's showing, especially south of Bloor, but nothing he - nor virtually anyone - could do would be enough. Graham's a lock.

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