Prediction Changed
5:01 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Nickel Belt
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Gravelle, Claude
McCracken, Ian
Portelance, Louise
Rutchinski, Steve
Twilley, Fred
Villeneuve, Yves

Raymond Bonin

2006 Result:
Raymond Bonin **
Claude Gravelle
Margaret Schwartzentruber
Mathieu Péron
Mark McAllister
Michel D. Ethier
Steve Rutchinski

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 RR Shaw
Signs don't vote but Gravelle is winning in all areas save for the bits of Sudbury the riding contains, where it is a 50.50 split. Could be close.
08 09 27 NJam101
Now that there is no incumbent, it seems that the NDP candidate Gravelle should have no trouble winning. The NDP has always done well in the northern portions of the riding and have won in the past. The last time was John Rodriguez in 1988. The NDP vote has steadily increased over the last few elections and came close last time. This is Gravelle's third election and his name should be well known by now. With the current economic conditions and the Liberals not likely forming government, it only seems natural that traditional Liberal places like Sturgeon Falls will vote in larger numbers for Gravelle.
08 09 14 northbynorthwest
I think Gravelle and NDP will win the riding. It's another northern Ontario riding NDP has targeted with mail and many visits from Layton and other northern NDP MPs. Gravelle should cut into the Liberal stronghold in Sturgeon Falls because of his work in the rural areas outside Sudbury, including with farmers. Northern Ontario Liberals are between a rock and hard place defending all the abstentions in Parliament, with the NDP message - why vote for a Liberal who won't vote for you. But the Liberals have that core, mail in vote that means a horse race here late into the evening of Oct. 14th. Louise may regret running under the Liberal banner this time.
08 09 05 JDL
The new candidate for Nickle Belt will probably hold the Riding.Louise Portelance has been doing a lot of footwork in all corners of this large Riding.
08 09 04 R.O.
So sort of changing my prediction here and wonder if this could turn in to one of the few ndp gains in Ontario this election. As it is a riding where they were close last election and longtime liberal mp Ray Bonin is not running again. And new liberal candidate Louise Portelance has yet to really do anything to secure the riding or increased her profile in Ottawa. The fact ontario ndp won this same riding last provincial election when it was also vacant then and party polling fairly low province wide holds well for candidate Claude Gravelles chances this election. But not a huge fan of the ndp just suspect this seat is one that might come back to them as it was ndp before it went liberal in 93.
08 02 23 R.O.
Happened to notice Jack Layton visited this riding and toured it with the ndp candidate and ndp mpp. Which clearly indicates they are serious about trying to win this seat. Even though they won it during the recent provincial vote I’m not sure federally will be as easy task. As riding has different boundaries and includes town of sturgeon falls and has been federally liberal since 93. but it’s a northern riding and I’m surprised the cpc vote is so low here considering they have done better in other northern ridings and even did better in the urban Sudbury riding. The liberals also have some troubles here as there longtime mp is not running again and it seems to be a riding where ndp is coming closer each election. But this one will stay in the too close colum for a while I bet.
07 11 11 binriso
I have to say that the Liberals could be in deep trouble up north next election. Provincially, there was a significant shift towards the NDP and even though all the incumbents retained their seats, the vote was pretty close between the Liberals and NDP. Not to mention the CPC are stronger in Northern Ontario than their PC provincial counterparts and will mostly take their votes from the Liberals. The Liberals might lose three or four northern seats next time, this being a potential loss because of it being so close last time and the loss of an incumbent. Then again Layton the Torontoite is not the most popular man up in Nickel Belt and other N-Ontario ridings...
07 11 03 R.O.
This will be an interesting northern riding in next campaign , due to retirement of Raymond Bonin . in Northern ridings incumbents seem to get elected for years and when ridings come open race gets more competitive. early on race appears to be between ndp and liberals unless conservatives being in government improves there chances here.
07 10 29 Northernguy
I am predicting an NDP gain for 2 reasons. First, I truly believe that the Liberal problems (which are mainly centred in Quebec right now admittedly) will set the tone for the campaign. Secondly, when the numbers are released poll by poll from the Provincial campaign, it will become clear that while the LIbs still won in Sturg. Falls, they did not win with their traditional numbers. And this was with a small NDP team in the falls, and a candidate that lived very far away and was only passable in his french. If that area cannot be counted upon for a huge Liberal total, the libs are in trouble in this riding.
07 08 06 A.S.
Clearly looooow hanging fruit for the NDP, now that it's an open seat and Claude Gravelle's running again. What saved it yet again for Ray Bonin was advance polls + Sturgeon Falls, as well as CPC-camp disarray--note that the overall Liberal vote actually went *up* by a percentage point from '04 to '06 (and it went down in Sturgeon Falls). Also note that the Tories lost 6 1/4 points, while the Grit-over-NDP winning margin was 4.6 points. If you add Progressive Canadian to the Tory total, it still would have been a 4-point falloff. From a Dipper standpoint: drool, drool--even if they can't exercise the pleasure of delivering personal defeat to Ray Bonin (‘hey, come back so we can moider you’). But they've blown the federal seat time and again over a decade and a half, so who knows.
07 04 03 Rob C
Should be a tight NDP / LPC contest.
The NDP renominated Claude Gravelle on March 27th.
The LPC contest is shaping up to be a matchup between former Sudbury Councillor / Mayoral candidate Lynne Reynolds and maybe Sylvain Beaudry. Reynolds used to work for MP Diane Marleau who backed her during the Mayoral race.
The CPC will be running 23 year-old first time candidate Renee Germain.
Of note: Reynolds lost the 2006 Mayoral election to John Rodriguez who lost this seat in Parliament to Bonin in 1993.
07 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Bonin isn't running again and with relative strength of the NDP here in the last election, it should be interesting to see if the voter's loyalty was with the party or the candidate. TCTC.
07 03 30 CGD
Raymond Bonin is supposedly not running here. The Liberal candidate will probably be able to squeak by without the stain of sponsorship on people's tongues.

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