Update/Mise à jour:
12:14 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:10 AM 22/01/2006
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Nickel Belt
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Libearl/libéral
Raymond Bonin
Marijuana
Michel D. Ethier
NDP/NPD
Claude Gravelle
Green/Vert
Mark McAllister
Progressive Canadian
Mathieu Péron
Marxist-Leninist
Steve Rutchinski
Conservative/conservateur
Margaret Schwartzentruber

Incumbent/Député:
Raymond Bonin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Raymond Bonin
17188
Claude Gravelle
13980
Mike Dupont
7628
Steve Lafleur
1031
Michel D. Ethier
430
IND
Don Lavallee
217
Steve Rutchinski
51

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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19 01 06 N.C.
A recent poll conducted by Oracle in Nickel Belt on behalf of CTV Northern Ontario has Ray Bonin of the Liberal Party leading by 7% over Claude Gravelle of the NDP. Last election, Bonin won by about 7% (or approx. 3200 votes)if i'm not correct. This riding is going Bonin again. :-)
24 12 05 A.S.
SoCon-ness or no, Bonin's never been more than just another Ontario Liberal (back)benchwarmer benefiting from the NDP hole--what *really* saved him in '04 was the addition of giga-Liberal Sturgeon Falls/W Nipissing (and the ceding of Walden to Sudbury). And the split in the right means little, given that a lot of the Northern Tory vote is more "populist" than "conservative" (and I erred in another post about only one under-20% Tory seat in the North: the "popular local" Mike Dupont fell short of 20% here, too). Then again, Bonin's handy defeat of the holy Elie Martel in '97 might affirm a little sly-foxness on his part--but no, this is definitely not a sure bet, and if it is, it's almost entirely due to West Nip, or a bigger federal Dipper collapse out there...
22 12 05 M. Lunn
This is a Liberal/NDP swing riding, but more importantly it generally tends to stay with the incumbent. If Raymond Bonin weren't running, I could see this going NDP, but since he is reasonably popular, the Liberals should hold this, even though I expect the NDP to have a strong second place showing and the Tories to finish in a distant third.
20 12 05 P. Imbeau
The election will be decided by a few factors but the main factor will be what most of us call "Nickel Belt Liberals". They are social conservatives who like to think they're progressive so they strongly vote Liberal. The anti-gay marriage stance will certainly help Bonin, as will the support of the faux-progressives.
Claude Gravelle (the NDP representative) has worked his way up through the steelworkers but they have lost their grasp on this riding, and he is not as "well liked" as many have said. Many, like myself, saw his performance last time around and did not consider him a strong candidate. This leaves many progressive voters either voting for the NDP just because they want to help out Mr. Layton that they adore, or they might vote Liberal because Gravelle is not strong enough, or even vote for a fringe party or spoil their ballot as they are not represented in these candidates.
The one thing that you can be sure of is the loss of the Conservatives. They had a strong candidate in Mike Dupont, and their candidate this time around is so loathed that Mr. Dupont has thrown his support behind Mr. Bonin.
What I meant is Mike Dupont is supporting the Liberals because he no longer supports the conservatives, not because he loathes the candidate. Mike Dupont joining the Liberals is probably a sign that many conservatives are thinking of doing the same because the candidate is very loathed.
07 12 05 Devin Johnston
This is traditionally a strong NDP riding. We can assume that Liberals (even incumbents) should lose somewhere between 4 and 8 per cent of last election's votes. Claude Gravelle is an extremely popular community figure, and is building a strong campaign. The NDP will win, but it will be close.
06 12 05 ocv
This will be an interesting race. Redistribution has changed demographics quite a bit, and the long slow decline of mining in Sudbury has reduced the labour base. Bonin voted against same-sex marriage, so that might win him some points with social conservatives. And although this riding has flipped back and forth between the Liberals and NDP, Reform and the Canadian Alliance and the old Confederation of Regions parties did surprisingly well. I won't call it yet because I haven't been back home to see the sign wars, but it will be won to watch. If the Liberals lose this one, they might be in trouble elsewhere. If they win it, the NDP vote splitting affect probably won't hurt them much in other Ontario ridings.
16 05 05 Craig
This riding, with a very strong union base, was already pretty close between the Liberals and NDP. This time, with the NDP up somewhat in the polls and the Liberals way down and likely to lose most of their Northern Ontario seats, the NDP should pick this seat up from Ray Bonin, although narrowly. As for the Conservatives, this is probably their weakest seat in rural Ontario, apart from Timmins-James Bay, and they won't be a factor. Predicted results: NDP 40%, LIB 34%, CPC 21%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
05 05 05 initial
Raymond Bonin is way too popular here. Claude Gravelle and Mike Dupont proved in 2004 that not even a popular local can defeat Bonin, no matter what.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
I would give the liberals a slight edge since Raymond Bonin is a good MP, but this is a traditional NDP riding due to the large mining and industrial labour unions in this region. This is held provincially by the NDP and considering the boundaries, the federal boundaries are even more favourable to the NDP than the provincial. I still give the liberals a slight edge, but if the NDP could pick off Sault Ste. Marie and Timmins-James Bay last time around they will probably put more resources into ridings like this one that they think they can win, but didn't.



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