Prediction Changed
6:31 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Joslin, Dave
Lobb, Ben
McClinchey, Greg
New Democratic
McQuail, Tony
Smith, Glen
Valenta, Dennis

Paul Steckle

2006 Result:
Paul Steckle **
Ben Lobb
Grant Robertson
Victoria Serda
Dave Joslin
Dennis Valenta

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 09 25 AV
With the popular Liberal incumbent retiring I don't see how the Liberals can possibly win here. In similar situations in this area of the province the retirement of popular Liberal MPs has always resulted in the Conservatives winning by significant amounts.
08 09 24 Practical Independent
I saw my very first roadside NDP sign today.
Gone Fishing, back in the day, McQuail might have been a strong candidate, but clearly that is gone. Recieved his flyer in the mail yesterday, it was, well all about yesterday. It went over a bunch of the things he did in the past, and said nothing about what he would do for me tomorrow as my MP.
Without Robertson, the NDP is clearly a spent force. Even if Robertson is quietly supporting McQuail that doesn't mean McQuail can talk about bread and butter issues like him and that is what it is about in Huron-Bruce right now. As well Robertson's star is rising, and the results from election to election show that, McQuail is back for a last hurrah by the looks of it. Robertson was probably foolish to sit this one out, even with his weekly raido gig and being the Ontario Presdent of the National Farmers Union.
That still leaves a lot of NDP votes to move, even if McQuail manages to keep say 10%. They will not go Conservative, and frankly Lobb's disappearance act demostrates to me he doesn't deserve the votes he got last time. McClinchy is all over the place and he clearly smells blood.
Lobb can not hold his own in a debate with McClinchy, and tracking polls are showing the Liberals rebounding in Ontario.
Little doubt this will send McClinchy to Ottawa as the MP this time, even if it is just by default.
08 09 20 BL
I am not a Liberal supporter, but I have to say that I still think this is going to be a surprise win for McClinchey. Here is why.....I am a fairly ‘average’ resident and I attend the usual events in my area...since the last election I have shaken hands with Greg McClinchey at least 3 times, Paul Steckle at least twice (both times with Greg I think) Dennis Valenta once (and survived), and Victoria Serda at least twice (I know she isn't running - just trying to make a point). On the other hand, if Ben Lobb walked up to my front door I would not recognize him. No pictures in the paper, no interviews on the radio...nothing. These things make a difference out here.
I think the conservatives could have won this riding - but where has Lobb been?
08 09 19 Gone Fishing
I dug into some archives for this riding after reading some comments posted here.
First with respect to the NDP support for Robertson making a difference. It is implied that Tony McQuail does not have the ability to make that same level of support.
Going back to 1979 for this riding Robertson's 2006 effort is indeed the highest the NDP support has ever been at somethin like 8700 votes. The next closest the NDP ever came here was when TONY MCQUAIL ran in 1988 and he garnered 7700 votes. Both these candidates ran in other contests in which they were less of a factor than in the two years noted.
The other thing I noted is this has not really been a swing riding.
1968 , 1972 and 1974 Libs win federally Conservatives win here all three
1979 this is one of the government seats in the Joe Clark minority
1980 With no incumbent it bucks the trend again with Liberal Majority this stays conservative
1984 and 1988 this riding goes conservative with Brian Mulroney
1993, 1997, 2000, and 2004 this is a government seat
The PC and Reform vote (sorry folks you have to get over it they are now again one party) was higher than the Liberals who won with Steckle. It was 1997 that everyone noted conservative vote splitting not this election.
1997 this riding would have been close if only one left of center candidate
2000, 2004 and 2006 this was a Steckle riding and arguably not Liberal especially in 2004 and 2006.
So what I see from history as far back as I have had a foot in this riding it is really a conservative riding.
You can make a case that only once did it go Liberal for liberal reasons in 2000 All other times it was Liberal because the right was becoming, being or recovering from being a mess.
The NDP support won't matter and won't split. The people in this riding will view the left like they did in the 1997 and 2000 elections. Steckle romped in 2000 and the conservatives will this time around as people get less comfortable with the leader with no hope.
08 09 17 Practical Independent
rural law abiding gun owner must be moving around different parts of the ridng than me. I see more McClinchy signs on lawns than Lobb, although neither have all that many that are on private property. Without Grant Robertson and his level of respect from all sides and his like-ablity factor the NDP has disappeared. Not a single, solitary sign, except a couple of old provincial ones outside the IPM. McQuail has been around a long time, but he is no Robertson. Not by a long shot. Watch for a collapse of the NDP vote from the last election.
I see a lot of those votes going Liberal rather than Conservative. There doesn't seem to be a Green candidate either. On top of that Lobb was a dud of a candidate as he disappeared completely after the election. And with the Conservatives reneging on scrapping CAIS and their failure to support Agri-Flex a lot of those farmer 'punish the Liberals' votes won't be there for Lobb this time. Paul Steckle has spent the time since the election started campaigning with McClinchy and being seen in public with him, like at the parade for the IPM which is in the riding this year.
Putting that all together I see McClinchy surprising everyone and pulling off a clear win.
08 09 17 agriculture matters
Here in huron bruce there is a sea of blue conservative incumbents all around us and it looks like even Greg McLinchey's coronation as Paul Steckle's successor may not save him in his local run for the Huron Bruce riding. There are many disaffected conservatives who wish anyone other than lobb were the candidate. but because he did so well no one ran against him for the nomination. he is young and inexperienced and those who knew him best Westcast employees voted solidly against him last time out. He has done nothing since last election. Ben lobb is running against a very capable veteran Politician in Tony McQuail who was NDP agriculture minister Elmer Buchanan's executive assistant as well as a former president of the Huron County Federation of Agriculture and current president of National Farmers union huron local. I understand former popular candidate Grant Robertson is working hard to get Tony elected.
08 09 16 Gone Fishing
What I had stated earlier is that 971 votes is not a lot to overcome.
Ben Lobb is a recognized name now.
Conservative momentum is stronger in rural area.
Paul Steckle is not in this race.
These are the the kinds of ridings that move in a change. The only reason it didn't change last time is the incumbent and the change was slight from Liberal minority to Conservative minority.
My words in 2006 on election eve on this website
‘If Steckle followed his principals and crossed the floor two years ago, he would be looking at the Agriculture Ministry as a Tory but he'll be hard pressed to be an automatic this time with the Liberals.
The area is not diehard Liberal, it loves stability and the Libs no longer offer that. Tough ride for the gun-toting redneck Steckle’
a 10,000 lead went down to 971 I don't think the rest is a stretch in fact with the board calling this conservative I think the Liberal aspirations here are strecth.
08 09 15 rural law abiding gun owner
I have seen a lot of Liberal signs here, I live in the north part of the riding. Not one is on anyones lawn, they are all on the sides of roads. Quite a few Ben Lobb signs on peoples yards. This riding is quite rural, Dions latest babblings about a ban on assault rifles ( a plastic looking gun that is way less powerful than most deer rifles), only reminds us of why the Liberals came out with a gun registry in the first place. Ban firearms from hunters, trappers, farmers, collectors, etc. and meanwhile opposing getting tough on criminals. The Conservatives take this one quite easily.
08 09 14 Sidney Carter
Ben Lobb almost did it last election. He was a total unknown and Steckle an established and respected incumbent. Lobb was well organized and worked hard. This time Lobb has the name recognition. Robertson is gone for the NDP but McQuail should be able to maintain part of that solid core left vote. The Liberal vote will go to the left to the Green Party or simply evaporate. The CHP, Greens and Independents picked off 6% of the vote last election. If there number is higher this year then that is bad news for the Liberals. Dion will continue to erode confidence in the Liberal Party on the National scene - he is a good guy, a good Canadian, but his party under his leadership will not run a smart campaign. They are also broke. I predict many Liberals will not vote as not only do they not know their own candidate but many have lost confidence in Dion. Could be the lowest turnout in voter numbers since the 2000 election. I predict Lobb will win if he works as hard as he did in the last election.
08 09 12 the fish
I have to disagree with gone fishing, I thin it was low voter turn out and bad weather that stopped many voters from coming out last time, swing voters that voted N.D.P or Green might vote Liberal with the fear of a Conservative majority, Liberals know its close, they will be working hard making sure they pull the vote right up until the last 5 minutes. if you can squeeze 10 people from each poll, 50 polls will get you 500 votes. Hard work pays off.
08 09 12 That guy over there
With the absensce of the NDPs Robertson to take the left leaning Liberal vote and much of the populist vote away, Lobbs narrow lost will turn into a larger margin of loss, if only by a few thousand votes.
08 09 09 DPP
I went to high school with both of these gents and have a knowledge of both of them and the electoral district. If elections were based on merit, McClinchey would win this going away (although I admit I am not wild about his pro-life and pro-gun stances he has inherited from the ridiculous Paul Steckle) but unfortunately, they aren't normally and I fully expect Ben Lobb to pull out the win here. I do think McLinchey would be great for the riding as he is well know and well respected in Ottawa but I just don't see how any fringe candidates in bellweather ridings can win with the Dion albatross hanging around their necks.
08 09 09 juxtaposition
Paul Steckle was always a little bit of a blue Liberal, so he appealed to Libs and Cons alike 5 times out of 10 I'm willing to bet. Given the fact that Steckle's election last time around was a bit of a squeeker and Ben Lobb has a bit of name recognition now, The CPC has this one in the bag.
08 09 04 BL
I think this one will be closer than most expect, but will end up being kept by the Liberals. McClinchey has been very active since the last election, attending public events, etc. Lobb on the other hand ? - haven't seen him around. With the locally well-respected Robertson out of the running there are a few NDP votes up for grabs as well, some will go green and some will go Liberal.
This is not your typical rural riding, with major liberal support in the larger towns and a shrinking rural population. With the anger over the sponsorship scandal long over now, this one may go down as an opportunity lost for the conservatives.
08 09 01 Gone Fishing
971 reasons why the Liberals don't keep this riding.
971, that's the number of votes that put Paul Steckle over the top last time. He was an ICON and 971 votes separated him from the challenger whose name will be recognized by more this time.
Being an assistant to an MP is the Liberal party's candidate claim to fame. I can't think of many MP assistants whose names (in my own riding) are recognizable to anything but core support.
Lobb's to take if he runs the campaign he did last time.
08 07 21 Raw C
No doubt, this will be a tight race. I believe, however, that the Liberals will hold onto this seat. Mr McClinchey is not an unknown in the riding. As Mr Steckle former assistant and a local politician, he has name and face recognition with the media and the public. Many voters will be comfortable voting for him (possibly viewing it as a continuation of the Steckle era).
08 04 02 R.O.
Its sure to be an interesting race in huron bruce as longtime liberal mp Paul Steckle is not seeking re-election. Liberals have nominated Greg Mcclinchey as there new candidate conservatives will be running Ben Lobb again. The liberals chances of holding on to this seat are made worse by the fact party is not polling so good in non metropolitan ridings from what I have seen. This riding is more or less a mix of small towns and agricultural areas. The loss of Paul Steckle as a candidate is going to hurt the liberals here and provides an opportunity for the conservatives to make gains here. The trend in other liberal turned vacant rural ridings would indicate the liberals are going to have a hard time in holding this one.
07 11 02 T.V.
I don't actually think the Liberals are going to win here, but it's not completely out of the question. It's a bit strange that this is the only seat in the country that will change that isn't listed TCTC. I can think of a half dozen others that are more inevitable.
07 10 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
T.V. seems to be the starry-eyed Liberal supporter, predicting unprecedented wins everywhere. C'mon man, you can't possibly think that provincial votes will translate to federal votes. The provincial Conservatives were plagued with the faith-based school fiasco. That's why so many ridings that should have swing PC stayed Liberal. The federal Liberals are certainly in no shape to be making gains (or keeps in this case) in ridings like this one. It'll turn blue pretty darn quick in the next election.
07 10 26 Daniel
If we're using provincial election results to extrapolate federal results, then half the Conservative seats in Ontario are in danger - obviously, this is not the case. Huron-Bruce was the lone holdout against the CPC in rural southwestern Ontario last time around (and just barely), and without the popular Liberal incumbent carrying the banner for his party this time around, a Conservative victory here is all but assured.
07 10 15 T.V.
The Liberals will be badly hit by the loss of Steckle as a candidate, but looking at the provincial vote, this isn't such an inevitable Tory pickup as people seem to think.
07 06 27 Beth Corbett
This riding is a sure-fire Conservative win, provided they have a strong and competent candidate. Paul Steckle, despite his popularity, has lost momentum in the last two elections and won by only one or two thousand votes in the last election. I've heard rumour that Steckle will be retiring and won't run again. Steckle is one of the ‘old-school’ socially conservative Liberals from days gone by and I have alot of respect for him, I don't think Huron-Bruce would elect one of the ‘new breed’ of Liberals.
Editor’s note: Steckle has announced on March 6, 2007 that he will not seek re-election.
07 04 26 G. Kennedy (not that one)
The provincial and federal seats don't match up perfectly right now though that will change with the provincial election in the fall. Yes, Walkerton is in this riding federally. But provincially, it stayed Tory in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. (Might I add that I expect Tory to take the riding back provincially as well). Regardless, that is merely a footnote.
Judging by the close margin, the demographics of this riding (I'm reasonably familiar with it as my aunt lives here) and the blue trend of its neighbours, it is clear this was Steckle's seat for personal reasons. Barring the Liberals significantly improving on their fortunes from last time (a situation I very much doubt), this will probably be the first seat in the country to switch Tory.
07 04 19 farmboy
The liberals will win again.....unfortunately. Lobb never really impressed anyone. Admittedly he got close the last time, but that was on an anti-martin vote. He has done nothing since the last election, so that alone he doesn't deserve to win. The NDP without Grant Robertson, don't stand a chance. So it looks like the liberals by default.
07 04 01 A.S.
Actually, it was the seat Walkerton was *formerly* part of (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound) that, under Bill Murdoch, stayed provincially PC--and Walkerton itself tended always to be (even in pre-water crisis days) the more Liberal-leaning part of whatever seat it was in. When it comes to Huron-Bruce, though, not only did it go with the Liberal flow in '03, its more illustrious recent provincial history (with seatholders like Murray Elston and Jack Riddell) has been Grit, too. So, hardly ‘Bedrock Tory’ per se (even Murdoch's wins next door have been more because he's Murdoch than because he's Tory--pre-Murdoch, *that* was longtime provincial ‘True Grit’ bedrock, too). Though, that's provincially. Federally, it *was* by and large Tory bedrock, or verging on it, pre-1993. And like Murdoch, Steckle held on thru '06 largely because he was Steckle, not because he was Liberal--indeed, his own near-sacrifice to Harper's '06 Rural Southern Ontario sweep surprised a few. But given the demos, it shouldn't take much to reinstate and reinforce Tory bedrockness here, unless the Grits offer a Murray Elston type. As for the ghost of Grant Robertson predictions past: though I wouldn't go so far as predicting it, given what happened in BGOS in '06, I wouldn't be too surprised if it's the Liz May Greens nipping the NDP for third...
07 03 30 Space Ghost
Yes Walkerton is now in the riding. No it did not stay Conservative- that was Bognor Bill Murdoch. You are thinking of the Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound riding next door. That has long been a Conservative riding. Both Bruce and Huron have been traditionally Liberal, especially provincially. BGOS listed as up in the air and Huron-Bruce listed as a Conservative pick up makes no sense. Should be the other way around. Former Bruce Warden Mark Kraemer has thrown his hat in. He is very popular in the north and could cause a real race if he wins the nomination. And if the other poster is right and Robertson is not running, the NDP vote shrinks by quite a bit. Open race, anyone's call.
07 03 29 Ancastarian
Provincially this riding, which contains Walkerton, stayed PC. It is a Bedrock Tory riding, and with the Liberal incumbent stepping down this should be an easy Conservative win.
07 03 25 Hereford Man
Don't be so quick to launch this into the Conservative column. Many farmers, a significant voting block in HB, feel duped by the Conservatives promises on CAIS. Chuck Strahl has not helped Ben Lobb, or other SWO Conservative candidates. Obviously the Conservatives have a head start, but with the right candidate the Liberals are not out of it.
It will be an interesting dynamic as Grant Robertson is also not running and there are a lot of votes up for grabs in his voting block that will not likely stay with the NDP. His support level in terms of likability is much higher than the vote count. It is also not a given that his votes will go Liberal to be sure.
The Lobb campaign was a high tide raises all boats kind of candidate, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. He was one of the worse performing candidates I've ever seen at an ACM, but they had a whack of cash to spend on advertising. Few people were excited about voting for him and he disappeared immediately after the election. That has not helped his case.
In other words this is far from a lock for anyone. The Bruce part of the riding has seen a significant demographic change thanks to Bruce Power and most of those new workers are more likely Liberal voters than Conservative. With Robertson not running many of the Bruce Power workers who voted for him in spite of being an NDP candidate because he knows or is related to so many of them will switch elsewhere, probably Liberal, no way they'd vote NDP under any other circumstance.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In 2006 we were surprised that this riding did not go to the CPC. Steckle's popularity won the day for the Liberals in a very tight race. With Steckle not running again we feel that this riding has been gift-wraped with a little bow and handed to the Conservatives.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster