08 04 02	R.O. 209.91.149.22
Its sure to be an interesting race in huron bruce as longtime liberal mp Paul Steckle is not seeking re-election. Liberals have nominated Greg Mcclinchey as there new candidate conservatives will be running Ben Lobb again. The liberals chances of holding on to this seat are made worse by the fact party is not polling so good in non metropolitan ridings from what I have seen. This riding is more or less a mix of small towns and agricultural areas. The loss of Paul Steckle as a candidate is going to hurt the liberals here and provides an opportunity for the conservatives to make gains here. The trend in other liberal turned vacant rural ridings would indicate the liberals are going to have a hard time in holding this one.
	07 11 02	T.V. 209.202.78.177
I don't actually think the Liberals are going to win here, but it's not completely out of the question. It's a bit strange that this is the only seat in the country that will change that isn't listed TCTC. I can think of a half dozen others that are more inevitable.
	07 10 30	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.51.130.75
T.V. seems to be the starry-eyed Liberal supporter, predicting unprecedented wins everywhere. C'mon man, you can't possibly think that provincial votes will translate to federal votes. The provincial Conservatives were plagued with the faith-based school fiasco. That's why so many ridings that should have swing PC stayed Liberal. The federal Liberals are certainly in no shape to be making gains (or keeps in this case) in ridings like this one. It'll turn blue pretty darn quick in the next election.
	07 10 26	Daniel 156.34.76.105
If we're using provincial election results to extrapolate federal results, then half the Conservative seats in Ontario are in danger - obviously, this is not the case. Huron-Bruce was the lone holdout against the CPC in rural southwestern Ontario last time around (and just barely), and without the popular Liberal incumbent carrying the banner for his party this time around, a Conservative victory here is all but assured.
	07 10 15	T.V. 209.202.78.177
The Liberals will be badly hit by the loss of Steckle as a candidate, but looking at the provincial vote, this isn't such an inevitable Tory pickup as people seem to think.
	07 06 27	Beth Corbett 72.143.62.174
This riding is a sure-fire Conservative win, provided they have a strong and competent candidate. Paul Steckle, despite his popularity, has lost momentum in the last two elections and won by only one or two thousand votes in the last election. I've heard rumour that Steckle will be retiring and won't run again. Steckle is one of the ‘old-school’ socially conservative Liberals from days gone by and I have alot of respect for him, I don't think Huron-Bruce would elect one of the ‘new breed’ of Liberals. Editor’s note: Steckle has announced on March 6, 2007 that he will not seek re-election.
	07 04 26	G. Kennedy (not that one) 63.250.102.243
The provincial and federal seats don't match up perfectly right now though that will change with the provincial election in the fall. Yes, Walkerton is in this riding federally. But provincially, it stayed Tory in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. (Might I add that I expect Tory to take the riding back provincially as well). Regardless, that is merely a footnote. Judging by the close margin, the demographics of this riding (I'm reasonably familiar with it as my aunt lives here) and the blue trend of its neighbours, it is clear this was Steckle's seat for personal reasons. Barring the Liberals significantly improving on their fortunes from last time (a situation I very much doubt), this will probably be the first seat in the country to switch Tory.
	07 04 19	farmboy 216.46.141.14
The liberals will win again.....unfortunately. Lobb never really impressed anyone. Admittedly he got close the last time, but that was on an anti-martin vote. He has done nothing since the last election, so that alone he doesn't deserve to win. The NDP without Grant Robertson, don't stand a chance. So it looks like the liberals by default.
	07 04 01	A.S. 74.99.222.209
Actually, it was the seat Walkerton was *formerly* part of (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound) that, under Bill Murdoch, stayed provincially PC--and Walkerton itself tended always to be (even in pre-water crisis days) the more Liberal-leaning part of whatever seat it was in. When it comes to Huron-Bruce, though, not only did it go with the Liberal flow in '03, its more illustrious recent provincial history (with seatholders like Murray Elston and Jack Riddell) has been Grit, too. So, hardly ‘Bedrock Tory’ per se (even Murdoch's wins next door have been more because he's Murdoch than because he's Tory--pre-Murdoch, *that* was longtime provincial ‘True Grit’ bedrock, too). Though, that's provincially. Federally, it *was* by and large Tory bedrock, or verging on it, pre-1993. And like Murdoch, Steckle held on thru '06 largely because he was Steckle, not because he was Liberal--indeed, his own near-sacrifice to Harper's '06 Rural Southern Ontario sweep surprised a few. But given the demos, it shouldn't take much to reinstate and reinforce Tory bedrockness here, unless the Grits offer a Murray Elston type. As for the ghost of Grant Robertson predictions past: though I wouldn't go so far as predicting it, given what happened in BGOS in '06, I wouldn't be too surprised if it's the Liz May Greens nipping the NDP for third...
	07 03 30	Space Ghost 24.235.53.215
Yes Walkerton is now in the riding. No it did not stay Conservative- that was Bognor Bill Murdoch. You are thinking of the Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound riding next door. That has long been a Conservative riding. Both Bruce and Huron have been traditionally Liberal, especially provincially. BGOS listed as up in the air and Huron-Bruce listed as a Conservative pick up makes no sense. Should be the other way around. Former Bruce Warden Mark Kraemer has thrown his hat in. He is very popular in the north and could cause a real race if he wins the nomination. And if the other poster is right and Robertson is not running, the NDP vote shrinks by quite a bit. Open race, anyone's call.
	07 03 29	Ancastarian 24.226.61.228
Provincially this riding, which contains Walkerton, stayed PC. It is a Bedrock Tory riding, and with the Liberal incumbent stepping down this should be an easy Conservative win.
	07 03 25	Hereford Man 216.183.134.241
Don't be so quick to launch this into the Conservative column. Many farmers, a significant voting block in HB, feel duped by the Conservatives promises on CAIS. Chuck Strahl has not helped Ben Lobb, or other SWO Conservative candidates. Obviously the Conservatives have a head start, but with the right candidate the Liberals are not out of it. It will be an interesting dynamic as Grant Robertson is also not running and there are a lot of votes up for grabs in his voting block that will not likely stay with the NDP. His support level in terms of likability is much higher than the vote count. It is also not a given that his votes will go Liberal to be sure. The Lobb campaign was a high tide raises all boats kind of candidate, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. He was one of the worse performing candidates I've ever seen at an ACM, but they had a whack of cash to spend on advertising. Few people were excited about voting for him and he disappeared immediately after the election. That has not helped his case. In other words this is far from a lock for anyone. The Bruce part of the riding has seen a significant demographic change thanks to Bruce Power and most of those new workers are more likely Liberal voters than Conservative. With Robertson not running many of the Bruce Power workers who voted for him in spite of being an NDP candidate because he knows or is related to so many of them will switch elsewhere, probably Liberal, no way they'd vote NDP under any other circumstance.
	07 03 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.15.40.135
In 2006 we were surprised that this riding did not go to the CPC. Steckle's popularity won the day for the Liberals in a very tight race. With Steckle not running again we feel that this riding has been gift-wraped with a little bow and handed to the Conservatives.