Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:25 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:25 PM 17/03/2004

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Barb Fisher
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Dave Joslin
Grant Robertson
Parti Marijuana Party:
Glen Smith
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul Steckle
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Dave Vasey

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (10.9%)
Ovid Jackson
Huron-Bruce (89.1%)
Paul Steckle

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,620 50.32%
11,418 24.32%
8,637 18.40%
2,804 5.97%
463 0.99%

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
(26/209 polls, 8061/72354 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(198/201 polls, 66059/66812 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Paul Steckle is practically an institution in this riding, and his record reflects the views and values of the people that populate this rural riding. Can't see him losing this one - unless there is a Tory tidal wave, and according to the latest poll showing the Tories trailing the Liberals in Ontario again - that's not gonna happen. Steckle wins 4th term.
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Huron-Bruce would have been a three way race but this Reform-friendly riding, which was so much so that in the 1995 provincial riding Reformers ran against the CSR Ontario PC candidiate, has a Conservative candidate who isn't just a Mike Harris Tory but a Red one to boot in Barb Fisher thus she's gone. Paul Steckle is a Blue Liberal who has gone up against Red Tories before and eat them like BBQ'd Canadian Beef with support for traditional marriage and against Bill C-250 taking votes away from the Christian Heritage candidate. Grant Robertson is a great guy, would be the rural Ontario leader in a NDP caucus but that's the problem, it's 2004 not 1990 and the NDP just can't cut it anymore outside of the city because, unlike Robertson, Jack Layton isn't of the Tommy Douglas cloth so Steckle by default.
17/06/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
Some old farmers might not be voting NDP, but Grant Robertson is making huge in-roads amongst Bruce Power workers. Many know him personally and have been campaigning for him. My husband works there and he says people who would never normally vote NDP are openly talking about it. In Port Elgin there are NDP signs all over, especially plant workers. With very few Liberal and Conservative signs except on roadways, or in cheeky places to make it look like a lawn sign when it isn't.
Paul Steckle is sounding worried these days and almost begging people to vote for him. And Barb Fisher just sounded terrible on the Bryan Allan show today, she was rude and talked over the others and continually sounded flustered as Grant Robertson pointed out inconsistancy after inconsistancy.
When I hear people saying that they think the NDP is going to do better than anyone thinks, and that Paul Steckle looks like he might lose, I take that as code to mean they are voting NDP.
Should have been one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario, but when you leave the centre open and run too conservative a Liberal in this climate, you leave yourself open to this.
17/06/04 asimpson
Email: [hidden]
I travel around this riding a lot and the only thing I can agree with about the last comments is that this is a strange riding and an even stranger election. I would never have thought is even a remote possibility, but Paul Steckle is in serious trouble and Grant Robertson is picking up the slack. The last thing I would have ever predicted was an NDP victory in this riding, of all places, but it is a distinct possibility.
Robertson just stood head and shoulders above the other two candidates on the local Bryan Allen radio show. As the other two bickered and sounded poor he stayed above the fray and was his usual folksy, charming self, but backed up everything with facts and knowledge. This will likley be a defining moment in the campaign as this is easily the most popular radio show in the area. In the coffee shop I was just in, all the old guys were talking about how they thought it was time to have someone like Grant. They called him Grant, that means something surely.
What a strange ridng. The NDP is running someone who is more of an old-style Liberal, the Liberals are running a person who should have joined the Reform Party and the Conservatives are running a discredited Mike Harris MPP after the riding just turned against them.
I would never have thought it possible, but I'm predicting that people who like Paul Steckle's independance, but want to punish the Liberals, are going to go NDP this time. Should be close, but the number of NDP signs on lawns that normally have Liberal ones, and the absense of many Conservative ones at normally PC homes, has to mean something.
14/06/04 hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
This is one of the strangest ridings out there. EVERYTHING about it is small C conservative (including the Liberal Incumbent) I think it is too close to call
Though I would like to see a Conservative victory, I am not so sure for several reasons:
1) Paul Steckle is well liked and even many who hate the liberals still defend him. He is often the first one in the riding to disagree with the party.
2) Guns and Abortion are big issues in this largely rural riding and the most socially conservative incumbent somehow convinces many he can work on thier side from within the liberal party.
3) The northern boudary of this riding has been expanded to take in the rural municipality of South Bruce. I grew up here, and this is LIBERAL country. Even during the Mulroney landslide the majority of voters in this municipality bucked the trend, (even though the riding went blue).
Fisher has a chance but if Steckle had somehow changed parties he would beat any candidate in a rout. Don't look for the NDP to do much here a lot of the old farmers and the like I know still call them communists not socialists.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Yes, a Grant Robertson prediction's a bit farfetched, although by way of trivia there *is* local precedent for a farm-friendly New Democratic "swell guy" rising from a depositless third place to surprise victory: Huron's Paul Klopp in the 1990 provincial Rae landslide. (Which probably all but killed the possibility of such a thing ever happening again--even though Klopp earned enough respect during his doomed tenure to still hold over 20% in 1995; and Robertson may indeed be a better candidate than Klopp. But that's all academic.) And re Steckle's so-called redneck bigotry: remember that somebody like Tom Wappel is even more of a religious/homophobic froot loop in many regards, yet Scarborough Southwest is the demographic antithesis of Huron-Bruce--and Wappel may even be safer than Steckle going into this election. Say what you will about Steckle's social conservatism--it sure helped increase his 1997 base while so many rural Ontario Grits remained stagnant or declined--but even *it* might be no match versus an anti-Liberal wave, not least versus an ex-PC MPP. So it's Harper Tory macro-"bigotry" versus Steckle Liberal micro-"bigotry". And social conservatism sure didn't save a lot of Western PCs' keisters in 1993, remember...
06/06/04 Heme
Email: [hidden]
Since I live in this riding and know it fairly well, I feel that I can make a comment. I currently support Barb Fisher and am working on her behalf. This riding can go conservative only if there is a conservative sweep in Ontario. Steckle although a liberal is extremely well liked in the riding. If he was the conservative canidate he would like take 80% plus of the vote. At this time I call it a liberal win but will be close.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We've been kinda silent on this riding since, truth be told, we really know little about the incumbant or the other candidates. The thing is the Liberals are starting to tank in Ontario with their support being concentrated in Toronto. This would seem to indicate that the Liberals will keep plenty of seats in Toronto but seem to be losing many in rural Ontario. Huron-Bruce is sourounded by many ridings that (as of now) are either listed as going Conservative or too close to call. It seems logical to us that this is not an easy liberal victory. Correct us if we're wrong, but is Steckle that good of an MP that he could survive the voter backlast that we're expecting to occur?
26/05/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
This riding will probably stay Liberal but a lot will depend on the campaign. Steckle is a jerk but he is the incumbent. Barb Fisher did win the riding in the 95 provincial election and is certainly better respected than Helen Johns. Grant Robertson is a smart and personable guy. I predict Liberal 40%, Conservative 35% and NPD 25% with +/- 10% for all.
12/05/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
I wasn’t going to respond to Milton’s diatribe because I have no idea what he is talking about with the J Smythe thing (I think that was it). But having re-read Milton’s comments the only thing clear is his unsavoury prejudice against rural and small town communities, certainly he doesn’t have a clue about the riding.
Firstly, I had the honour of meeting Pierre Trudeau in 1972. In every election since I was old enough to vote I have voted Liberal. I have worked on no fewer than a dozen campaigns-10 Liberal and two of my own successful municipal campaigns. So I do have a little bit of experience to go by, but that hardly qualifies me as a Robertson supporter. You see Milton here in civilization we have some manners and we show respect for our political adversaries because they are also likely to be our friends, or people we meet at children’s hockey games or in church or at other community events. It is not hard for us to be both strong partisan supporters and also see the qualities in other candidates. We are also pretty independent even as partisans, it's in our nature. Because I am well known to be politically involved people talk to me about politics, that’s why I hear so much.
Secondly for all I know Grant Robertson is not just a swell guy he is also nice to children and small animals, that’s not the point. I have worked with a lot of politicians in my day. I think it honest to admit that he is easily in the top 5% of that group. He not only has a quick mind and a large depth of knowledge, he has tremendous political skills. Sitting where ever you are Milton you obviously know more than the local media, who in the last week of the provincial election started calling it a three-way race too close to call. He and his team created that, not the NDP catching on fire across Ontario. I can tell you from my canvassing for Carol Mitchell that those stories probably won us the election. Going into that last week my intuition is that Helen Johns was ahead followed by Carol and Robertson. On the door in that last week, our checks went way up because people who really wanted to vote for Grant Robertson wanted Helen Johns gone more. If the dippers had any sense they would be throwing money into this guy’s campaign. If anyone is going to make a breakthrough for them in rural Ontario this is the person who could do it. Thankfully the NDP rarely thinks strategically.
Thirdly, my point has been not that Grant Robertson will win, but that he is going to have a major impact. If you take his provincial vote and assume no upward movement it is already almost double the NDP vote in the last federal election, and these are much different times and a much different candidate and a much different Liberal Party, sad to say. My expectation is that Robertson is sitting at, at least 20% and the election hasn’t been called yet. That is going to have an impact Milton whether you like it or not, pretending otherwise is not good strategy nor does it reveal much political knowledge or experience on your part. 20%, even 11% in a volatile climate is a good base to make an impact in an election, even to win- ask all the Harris Tories like Barb Fisher.
Fourthly, I still expect that the most likely outcome in this election will be for Paul to win. I have always believed that the only way to beat an incumbent is for them to do something stupid or to be part of an electoral tide. What does appear to be happening is that the anti-government vote is coalescing around Robertson, not Barb Fisher, so if a wave does come, Robertson is the most likely, at this point, to catch it. By the way the poll rumour has grown. Even the New NX- hardly an NDP voice, in a pre-election story about the candidates broadcast 'person on the street' interviews a week or so ago, all of them said they were voting NDP. They would not have broadcasted it unless it was indicative of the general mood, at least not in favour of the NDP. I have never seen such a volatile electorate, so I do not rule anything out.
There are a great many long term Liberals, like me, especially in Bruce, who have had to hold our noses to work for Paul. In the opinion of many he is not really a Liberal and has been becoming more and more aligned with social conservatism. That might work in the Bible-belt south of the riding, but as you go further north it is wearing very thin. It is strange I’ll admit, but the most moderate,centrist candidate in this riding is the NDP candidate. If he looks like he has a chance to knock off Paul a great many Liberals will vote for him, so will Tories I expect.
This is long I know, but the underlining vehemence in Milton’s comments demanded a thorough response. It is still most likely that Paul will be going back to Ottawa, but it is far from certain. Honesty dictates admitting this riding is too close to call. I and many others would be just as happy to see the back of Paul Steckle due to his focus on social conservative issues over everything else. If we can quietly go out and vote for someone like Robertson we will. If I can avoid having to worry about him running against Carol in a couple of years, with another election under his belt and a bigger vote universe that's an added bonus. That does not make us ‘supporters’ Milton, just political realists.
27/04/04 Milton
Email: [hidden]
All those "rumours" merely show the Grant Robertson campaign has a few (or one by the name of J Smythe, or JB or whatever.) members that are very "net-keen" but obviously clueless about politics. Look at the Provicial prediction page for case to point. And guess what, Mr. Robertson win 11% of the vote and lost his deposit!! I am sorry, but Grant Robertson is nobody in the grand scheme of the election, and a candidate doesn't win election just because you think he is a swell guy, which I am sure he is. Paul Steckle is one of the worst right wing bigot on the Liberal bench, and somehow that just makes him a suitable candidate for this red-neck zone.
27/04/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
I was going to wait until more people posted to add anything after my long-winded epistle. But I heard a rumour over the weekend from two entirely separate sources that I thought was worth reporting. Apparently there has been some quiet polling going on in the riding that shows Paul Steckle in first place followed "very closely" or "within striking distance" by Grant Robertson with Barb Fisher being a "distant third" , or "well back" in the words of the two people I spoke with. Basically they said the same thing in different ways.
If it is true it seems to confirm what the last poster said and the feeling I have been getting as I talk with people trying to make my own decision about where to put my energy. Even if it is not true the rumour is clearly out there and may become true by default.
I said NDP not because I think it is a win yet, but clearly Grant Robertson is on the move and has already regained some of the momentum he was building up in the latter part of the provincial election. It is looking very much like he will be the serious challenger to Paul. Robertson will likley need a bump from the national campaign but it is starting to look like he might be in position to pull off an upset should it come.
24/04/04 Bruce Lawrence
Email: [hidden]
What an intersting site!
I think Paul Steckle is in real trouble. I hear a lot of people say things like "I like Paul, but the Liberals have to go."
I visit a lot of farms for my job and farmers love to talk politics. They seem to be turning to Grant Robertson, or at least considering him. He was very well regarded in the provincial election and a lot of people wanted to vote for him, but were afriad that Helen Johns might win.
Not much positive is ever said about Barb Fisher if people even know who she is. She seems to be past the best before date.
If Robertson is making gains in the farm community, one can only assume it is happening elsewhere. Word is also that he is already out and canvassing hard. A few short months ago I would never have thought Paul could be beat, but things seem to be chnaging fast around here. Too early to call a victory for either one, but this riding is getting rather interesting in a way I would have never expected. So since I can only click on one thing I`ll say no opinion.
03/04/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
I think it is a real mistake to count out Grant Robertson's impact on the election. And just so my bias is clear I worked on a campaign against him in the provicial election and may do so again. From that vantage point I watched him absolutely clean the clock of the other candidates in all-candidates meetings and in the media. This time out, I and a number of other people in the riding are very undecided. Does the Liberal party nationally still represent the kind of Canada I want, especially with a local candidate that seems to have more in common with the Alliance. It was hard to work for him last time out, now it's even harder. What's strange is just as many of my Tory friends are talking about maybe voting for Grant Robertson not Barb Fisher. I haven't quite figured that one out other than people just like him
This is not an endorsement, but just an acknowledgement that if he runs as strong a campaign as he did just 6-7 months ago, something will happen. Consider that he rec'd just under 12% as a first time candidate and virtual unknown in Huron in a riding that swung Liberal and that we had a great deal of help in. It is likely that vote has held and even more likely that it has increased closer to 15-20% with BSE and being a family farmer, the sponsorship scandal, the inclusion of Walkerton (his backyard) and so on. That is a significant change to the last federal election. That support has to be coming from somewhere.
Will he win, it will be tight if he does, especially now that I see there is a Green candidate, will he determine who does win- likley. Is he just taking support away from Paul Steckle- no. Robertson is the kind of person people respond to around here. He is independent, has deep roots in the area, is mainstream with a stong populist streak but has a track record on the environment, is personally well-known by many Bruce Power workers, has a very quick mind, is funny and the farm community respects and trusts him. If he was a candidate for either the Liberals or Conservatives- in this riding he would win in a walk.
I'm not going to go out on a limb and predict a win for him and really it would be for him, not necessarily the NDP. However, I think it wrong to assume he will have no impact and as much as I'm torn about it, even more wrong to still continue to list this as a Liberal win. The jury is still very much out on that one and I still believe the potential is there for a three way race. If people like me are considering switching, my guess is that lots of others are too.
27/03/04 Compassionate Conservative
Email: [hidden]
This riding has traditionaly broken Liberal in Bruce, and Conservative/PC/Alliance in the farm-heavy Huron areas. With Steckle from Huron area & Fisher from Bruce, there is a real toss up.
Steckle's chance can be found if the Huron voters ignore his Liberal party & focus on him personally. The Alliance was always popular with the Huron voters and if this moves to the Conservative Party and stays away from Steckle then he will be defeated. With Walkerton's additon, Steckle's popularity based upon his past will not face as much of an issue as they are only now joining the riding. This area could be the real horse race to determine the outcome, and in the end the old fashion GOTV could determine the outcome.
That said, I think the Conservatives have the edge, even given Steckle's popularity.
23/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
There is actually an issue in this riding that could elect CPC candidate, Barbara Fisher. Mad Cow disease rocked Canada's agriculture industry coast to coast, and Bruce and Huron counties are prime cattle heartlands with no exception to the areas hard hit. The Liberals are only just starting to act on this crises now. Since Stephen Harper is from Alberta and has been an active voice on this issue, farmers may be looking in his direction.
23/03/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
A few months ago I would have agreed this was a cake walk for Paul Steckle. But with national and local factors that is simply no longer the case. This riding should not be listed as a Liberal win, it should be too close to call. This riding is going to be a horse race and Paul Steckle could be in real trouble, which is surprising I know, but it is the new post-sponsorship reality. I say change the listing.
17/03/04 J.B.
Email: [hidden]
This is a riding to watch. This has the potential to be a three way race. With popular incumbent Paul Steckle damaged by the sponsorship scandal, former MPP Barb Fisher running for the Conservatives and news that Grant Robertson is seeking the NDP nomination this one will likely be too close to call until late in the day. Paul Steckle is popular in some quarters, but his party is on the skids. Barb Fisher has a united Conservitive Party behind her and thanks to losing to Helen Johns in a nomination battle might not be tarred with the later problems of the former Ontario government. Grant Robertson generated the kind of interest in the NDP that has not been seen in these parts in a long time, if ever, in the last provincial election. His vote count doesn't really tell the story, you had to be here to understand the goodwill he generated. If voters turn away from the Liberals and Paul Steckle both Robertson and Fisher stand to gain a great deal of support from that and perhaps Robertson has the best chance to pick it up. Looking at past election results will not tell us much about how this riding will breakdown. Robertson is a force to be reckoned with and very respected by the base of both other parties, particularily in the farm community. Fisher has name recognition and is generally well thought of in much of the riding and Bruce is now more powerful with Walkerton being added. Steckle is one of the few Liberals that might be able to go against an anti-Liberal tide. This is definately a riding to watch with 3 big local names all in contention. Time will tell, but it might just come down to the old fashioned notion of who gets their vote out on election day.
16/03/04 RWA
This rural Ontario riding may seem like prime CPC territory, but MP Steckle is popular and a Liberal maverick on the gun registry and social issues.

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