08 04 26	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
Let's start off with the NDP in Guelph. The seats the NDP picked up in Ontario in the 2006 election all had one thing in common. The NDP finished second in those ridings in 2004. We couldn't find a riding where in this province where the NDP went from third to first. Since the NDP finished well back in third in Guelph last time, logic suggests they won't be taking this riding in 2008 especially with the Green Party developing a base in this city. This leaves the race for Guelph between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberal win by 6000 votes in 2006 is a significant number and demonstrates they have a very solid base in Guelph that stuck with the party when the central campaign was a mess. Frank Velonete is not going to set the world on fire but he is a substantial enough candidate to finish ahead of Gloria Kovak thanks to a weakened NDP and the buffer of 6000 votes from 2006.
	08 04 14	Tom 130.64.137.40
Worth mentioning that this was the Greens' second-strongest riding in the Ontario 2007 election, 19.5%, well ahead of the NDP. The Greens are probably unlikely to repeat that performance, especially with a different candidate, but at the same time it makes an NDP surge seem highly unlikely.
	08 04 13	Nick J Boragina 74.13.127.100
There are two key things that lead me to believe that this riding will likely be held by the Liberals in any by-election. First, by-elections do not usually flip a seat from the opposition to the government. We’ve recently seen one where this was not the case, but the fact that so much attention was paid to it, just proves its rarity. Secondly, especially in Ontario, the poll numbers of the Liberals and Conservatives remains where they were in the last election. This stagnant political situation does not loan itself well to seat flipping from one party to another. Combine that with the fact that Guelph, while small and rural in character, is still an urban centre, and the Tories do not do well in urban centres, and you have a Liberal win – at least in a by-election.
	08 04 12	Hannah Montana 216.13.88.86
One other point, there's only one politician in Guelph with a campaign machine and that's provincial MPP Liz Sandals. Sandals didn't like Brenda Chamberlain and didn't help her out. Now that Chamberlain is gone, Sandals and her team are backing Frank Velonete. The Grits will win this district with the Tories a weak second with the NDPers coming in a lame third.
	08 04 07	Mad Max 69.157.72.63
It is hard to suggest that a 5,000 vote lead could evaporate. But Guelph is just the riding that could see anything happen in a By Election. I think the By Election gives the NDP candidate an opportunity to create a 3 way race where either the Libs/Cons or NDP could win. I believe that if the General Election Happens first, it is likely to be a two horse race with the edge going to the Libs or the Cons.
	08 04 07	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
Gloria Kovach is a solid candidate for the Conservatives in Guelph but I don't know anyone who'd consider her a star candidate. Frank Valeriote isn't a star candidate either but he has the advantage of a voter base that gave the Liberals a 6000 vote victory last time. Guelph has changed a lot in the last 15 years and anyone who's been there will concede it looks more and more like a typical GTA riding. That means the Liberals are going to hold Guelph and I predict they win by 7500 votes as Guelph becomes less and less a riding where the Conservatives have a chance.
	08 04 05	R.O. 209.91.149.160
Sort of think this one we might not know how its going to go until a few weeks into the by-election or election. After the campaign starts signs or general momentum might point to a likely winner. Happened to be in Guelph last fall for a day was surprised by how big the city was and how urban parts of it were. Its largely a mix of retail, industrial areas, homes and large apartment buildings. But at the same time somewhat similar to the other ridings the conservatives have won that are close to yet not in Toronto. So I wouldnt say there is not a chance for them here. It really depends on what kind of campaign Gloria Kovach . Frank Valeriote and Tom King is able to run here. And lets be realistic here how is the ndp going to close that gap and pass both the liberals and conservatives here ? it seems a little unlikely
	08 04 03	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.22
There has been a very large increase in the number of communters who live in Guelph and work in the western GTA. This means commuter train service is really a major issue to this significant number of people. Then there's the university population, student and more importantly staff. There are just too many factors working against the Conservatives for them to win. Guelph will stay Liberal.
	08 04 01	King of Kensington 74.15.84.77
In a byelection scenario, Guelph could prove to be interesting as the individual candidates become more important. The NDP is running a star candidate, Tom King, who can potentially appeal to disaffected Liberal voters as well as take a lot of the protest vote that goes Green. With the Dion Liberals in very poor shape right now, the NDP could take this.
	08 04 01	T.V. 209.29.21.241
In a by-election, the NDP would have a very good chance of taking this riding. They've got a strong candidate, and the NDP always does well in by-elections. In a general election, though, this is a Liberal seat and there's pretty much no doubt that it will stay Liberal. Kovach split her own riding association, so I don't expect her campaign will be particularly strong. City councillor candidates are always way overrated. Valeriote isn't going to be attracting too many votes on his own either, but left-leaning Liberals will be scared off of going NDP by the prospect of the Tories winning the seat.
	08 03 30	A Rathbone 207.210.9.219
The whole thing about the Peterborough train doesn't enter into the equation. No offense Doug but it seems your prediction isn't really connected with the reality of Geulph. The people I know in Guelph don't care two cents worth about public transit. Guelph is not the GTA and definitely not Toronto. Ex-Torontonians who moved there are mostly doing it to get away from Toronto or Bride of Toronto (Missi) While that doesn't guarantee a Conservative, it does mean public transit for the riding isn't a big as an issue as you seem to consider it.
	08 03 29	R.O. 66.186.79.127
Well I see some reasons for each party to be optimistic here but then at the same time not be. The tough part for the liberals is the fact Brenda Chamberlain is not running again, she has been mp since 93 and fairly well known in the riding, also there new leader dion has been having some trouble. The tough part for the conservatives is this riding has not been conservative for a while and there was some nomination issues here. But both these problems aren?t enough to rule out the possibility that either is able to win the riding. The conservatives have a good candidate in Gloria Kovach so that will help. liberals new candidate Krank Valeriote seems to lack profile maybe. Another interesting factor is the green and ndp vote they have both been a major factor in recent elections and should not be underestimated due to the large university presence here. Another big question is will this riding see a by-election or not its still to early to say if it will.
	08 03 27	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.21
I read in one of papers on the weekend that only 900 people per day, according the Conservative MP there, will use the new GO-TRAIN service out of Peterborough that was part of the budget. Taking that into perspective, a full GO-TRAIN can hold up to 1200 people. Ignoring transit in the GTA and blowing millions on trying to hold a seat in Peterborough makes it clear that the Conservatives don't see any chance of picking up seats like Guelph.
	08 03 24	A Rathbone 207.210.9.219
A couple of points about the whole University thing. 1) Guelph isn't exactly a stronghold of leftist thought like some other Universities. 2) Conservatives CAN win in areas with Universities. Witness seats in Alberta and Sask. which were won even though they contain Universities. Also witness Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale a riding with Two (2) Universities (One being McMaster a large University) where the Conservatives won last election.
	08 03 22	PoliSci Student 64.230.100.120
Many of the Liberal votes were Chamberlain votes, so without her as the candidate, and having a high-profile female in Gloria Kovach, this will be a reasonably-margined Conservative victory.
	08 03 22	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
Some very interesting opinions posted for Guelph. Here's our take on this riding. If you look at Ontario electoral map right now, you'll see that cities that have a major university in them for the most part don't elect Tories. Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Windsor, London, Kitchener, Guelph, Hamilton, Kingston, Ottawa and Toronto. The Conservatives hold seats on the edges of these cities but nothing in the towns themselves. The only two cities that buck this trend are Peterborough and St.Catharines. All three of us know these two places well and they have a couple things in common. Both Trent in Peterborough and Brock in St.Catharines are small universities located on the edge of both cities. Both are small schools and tend to be much less involved in the community and therefore hold less influence on their cities. Urban areas that the Conservatives do hold right now like Oshawa, Burlington and Whitby don't have universities, making them very different from other cities and they elect Conservatives. Getting back to Guelph. This riding is quite compact, only taking in the city itself. The University there has a great deal of influence in the city and as others have mentioned, the Harper government is simply not investing in post secondary education. It's just not one of their priorities. For all of these reasons, we don't see any Conservative gains in cities where universities play a major role. For that reason and the fact the Liberals won easily here last time, we all believe that Guelph will be Liberal again.
	08 03 21	24.81.18.126
6000 votes in not an impossible vote margin to overcome. Look at Vancouver Quadra: In 2006, the Liberals won by 12 000 votes. In the recent by-election they won by just 151 votes, or 0.5% of the votes. If this is in wealthy, urban, metro-Vancouver, the home of UBC, then certainly the CPC will be able to gain ground in Guelph, especially with a strong candidate with name recognition like Gloria Kovach. Plus, the presence of NDP star candidate Tom King will shift votes away from the Liberal candidate, especially with Dion at the helm of the Liberal party.
	08 03 20	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
Proposing that the Conservatives will win seats they lost by a HUGE 6000 votes makes no sense. I looked around and I don't see any ridings that the Conservatives won by 6000 votes last time in the too close to call category. With the Liberals and Conservatives close in the polls ridings that were won by a large margin like Guelph just aren't going to change hands. Sorry but the numbers mean more than Conservative spin.
	08 03 18	99.236.197.34
In light of the trend we've seen over the past eight months (the Conservatives gain two seats, the NDP one and the Liberals lose two), I'm inclined to give this riding to the Conservatives in the event of a by-election (it will be TCTC if we have a general election before then, which I doubt). Doug the Slug makes this riding out to be just another bedroom community due to its pecking order just behind Milton on the 401 however there are a few reasons why this assessment isn't accurate: First and foremost, the GO Station presence here isn't nearly as strong, with only buses so far going to the Georgetown train station. While there are auto commuters into Milton (I commuted myself to that station in the fall and know the traffic well on this stretch of the 401!), they aren't nearly as numerous as they are when you hit Milton. Next, the city's development is still that of a southwestern Ontario small city in the mold of Kitchener, London and Brampton. While all these cities were swept by the Liberals last time, the margins were not the massive pummeling that the Liberals dealt in the 416 (let's remember that if Stephen Harper is competitive in Brampton-Mississauga now, he is competitive here too). Finally, the UofGuelph lies in this riding, swinging it a little more Liberal, but unlike the massive schools like UofT or UW, Guelph is a smaller university and the Liberals usually only poll a small plurality in student polls (they can swing to the winner of the riding too). On top of this, given the Green Party's ability to do well in by-elections so far, I'd bargain that the Liberals will bleed a significant lot to the Tories from this area. These points address the myth of Guelph being a GTA riding - something I'm sure the residents would consider an insult given the culture here. It doesn't address the other points made that the Tories have a star candidate with name recognition in the area, Harper is visiting the riding showing that the PMO feels that they can capture this if resources are poured in and that the type of Liberalism here isn't the type one finds in downtown Toronto, making voters more palatable to the idea of voting for a Stephen Harper MP.
	08 03 16	24.81.18.126
Doug The Slug, ?Some of the pundits here forget there are real voters with real issues living in these ridings.? So apparently, Conservatives don't represent any 'real issues' in Guelph? Only Liberals apparently resonate with Canadians? I find that statement inaccurate, as well as arrogant. ?Since the federal Conservatives have done nothing for post secondary education, there won't be any new votes for them with this group either.? Actually, the Conservatives have repealed scholarships being taxable income, a move that will attract the votes of hardworking and high achieving students who receive scholarships. ?In order to make up for the more than 6000 spread in the last election, the Conservatives would have to come up with an earth shaking issue to win here. No chance for the Conservatives here.? 6000 vote margin of victory means 3000 minds have to be changed in the riding to vote Conservative. Don't delude yourself - that's really not that gigantic of a margin. Something like a 15 000 vote margin I would not consider winnable, but 6000 is definitely competitive. In 2006, the CPC support went up 5000 votes since 2004. That's a solid gain in votes that the Liberals would make a severe mistake in neglecting. Peg Leg Pete, If Liberals were the party of urban voters, they would sweep Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, and Ottawa. I don't suppose you'd call cities like Ottawa where the CPC has a handful of seats as urban, at least I hope not. While the CPC has a sturdy base in the rural areas, they do well in the suburbs as well as certain urban areas. Guelph is not exception - it's a small enough city to be considered winnable by the Conservatives, especially with a Conservative candidate with name recognition (Gloria Kovach). Also the presence of start NDP candidate Tom King will damage Liberal support here. Sorry to float your boat here, but unfortunately, youth apathy is very high - university students don't vote ind droves, but in fact a very small number actually vote. Their presence in the University of Guelph will not have a large effect on the race outcome, especially since the students who do vote are known to spread their support quite equally among the major parties. Guelph is definitely a competitive riding.
	08 03 13	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.21
Some of the pundits here forget there are real voters with real issues living in these ridings. Looking at Guelph a growing number of people living here commute to the Peel Region and Toronto. They have to deal with the GTA gridlock on a daily basis. Since the current government has done nothing about this situation there shouldn't be an increase in support from this group. Then there's the large segment of the Guelph community involved with the university. Since the federal Conservatives have done nothing for post secondary education, there won't be any new votes for them with this group either. Face the facts. In order to make up for the more than 6000 spread in the last election, the Conservatives would have to come up with an earth shaking issue to win here. Since they won't be doing that, Guelph will be Liberal again in the upcoming election. No chance for the Conservatives here.
	08 03 12	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
I'm not surprised the last Conservative supporter didn't leave a name on that last post. When the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the national polls, you're really stretching the imagination to predict the Conservatives taking an URBAN riding they lost by 6000 VOTES last time. That's like saying the Liberals will take Niagara West-Glanbrook this time. There are two Canadas. Urban Canada that votes Liberal/NDP and rural Canada that votes Conservative. Guelph is an urban riding with a huge university population that will be going to vote against Stephen Harper in the next election. Councillor Kovach is going to look like a deer in the headlights when the results come in on election night. I predict this riding stays Liberal by 7500 votes this time. Nobody misses Brenda Chamberlain.
	08 03 08	24.81.18.126
A lot of Chamberlain's support in 2006 were ‘Chamberlain-votes.’ She was well-liked in this riding. Now that she's retired, CPC Gloria Kovach, city councillor for 16 years, has a solid shot here. The CPC closed up the margin of victory from 10 000 votes in 2004 to 6 000 votes in 2006. With Chamberlain gone, this riding should go Conservative, or at least competitive.
	08 02 22	Doug the Slug 192.30.202.21
The old Guelph-Wellington riding had a substantial rural section but the current Guelph riding only includes the urban part of this city. Guelph is a progressive, university town without an NDP base. Perfect ground for the Liberals. Face it, Stephen Harper just doesn't sell in cities like Guelph. The Liberals will hold this riding without any problem.
	08 02 01	Jonathan 99.224.215.147
The removal of Brent Barr from the Conservative candidacy in this riding has likely destroyed any chance of further gains from the Conservatives, not only in Guelph, but also in surrounding ridings. Many grassroots Conservatives are enraged with Barr's arbitrary removal, and for lack of any clear explanation, have pinned Kovach and a faction of the Conservative Riding Association as the Brutus. Further, outstanding questions concerning Kovach's forced removal from the FCM, and her blatant use of Guelph's city council to advance her own partisan interests only serves to further inflame observers. Tom King has little chance for serious gains here as well. While he has some name recognition, it is generally among a small core of NDP party faithful and some students. The broader community is barely aware of his presence. The fact that the NDP placed dead last in the provincial election speaks volumes of the kind of campaign organization they possess, and their increasing irrelevance in the face of a surging Green Party and the perception by the vast majority of voters that they lack any credibility as an alternative to Stephen Harper will likely mean losses. Progressive voters will recall what happened the last time Jack Layton asked them to ‘lend him their vote.’ Stephen Harper was put in charge, and Layton, desperate for more seats, continued to attack the Liberals rather than his true ideological opponents. Moderate gains for Green Party candidate Mike Nagy can be expected, and major gains can be expected for Liberal Party Candidate Frank Valeriote. In both cases, this support is likely to bleed over from disaffected Conservatives angry over the Barr debacle. Such Conservatives will never vote NDP. Moreover, Valeriote's extensive involvement and relationship with the community runs extremely deep, on social justice issues as well as business; for this reason there is likely to be little significant leakage into the NDP or Greens from the Liberal camp.
	08 01 04	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 69.157.170.5
Question: If the CPC are inching towards certain victory (or just precieved to be by the voting public) as an election nears, would these alleged NDP and Liberal supporters still vote for Kovach, knowing full well it meant helping Harper and the Conservatives? Another question: Are these NDP and Liberal supporters who would vote for Kovach just playing lip service to a friend/neighbour/fellow citizen of Guelph and in the polling booth choose to vote for the party they support? Recall Guelph is a city and urban voters tend to vote for parties and not for candidates. Just some food for thought....
	07 12 19	Paul Atarsus 99.224.217.51
Hold the phone everyone... well respected city councilor Gloria Kovach has just announced that she's running for the Tory nomination. If she gets it, it's a HUGE boost for the Tories, and I think puts it back into the ‘WIN’ column for Mr. Harper. She's well respected on both the left and the right of the local spectrum, with a lot of Liberal AND NDP voters who have indicated they'd support HER, even though they don't support the Tories in general. I think Frank is quaking in his boots right about now...
	07 12 20	blakegoodman 130.15.94.27
It is amazing how stable this riding has been over time with similar vote tallies for the Liberals and the CA+PC/CPC, in 2000, 2004, 2006--there have been slight variations, but the liberals have retained a voting bloc between 22000-23000 people, while the tories hover around 15-18000. The NDP have been the only party with large growth over the past seven years, getting only 5,000 votes in the 2000 general election. While with any election there are new factors, it will be interesting to see how this bloc of liberal voters endures a new candidate, as well as a challenge from a charismatic and articulate candidate on the left in the form of Thomas King. As the NDP move closer to a three way race, they may just upset the old parties, either that or split the ‘progressive’ vote to the benefit of the conservatives. I think that the campaign to watch in this riding is not the old Grit-Tory rivalry, but instead the New Democrats. While I may be ‘dreaming’ as some posters have insinuated, I think that Tom King and his campaign deserve some more attention than previous posts have been giving.
	07 12 10	seasaw 99.225.19.235
I would like to reply to Foodora's comment, which belittled the Liberal candidate, Francis Valeriote. Well, this person obviously does not know the riding and its history very well. He must be completely unaware that the candidate himself and his family made some very valuable contributions to the community that dates back a century, and to say that Marva Wisdom, who hasn't done much for the community, would've made a better candidate, is totally wrong. To binsiro who thinks if elections were held today the CPC, would finish a close third, again, this person doesn't know the riding and its history. The Left has only done well here once, provincially, and that was during the 1990 protest vote, most of the time the left gets less than 15%. If elections were held today, I would not bet. Though the Liberals may have the best candidate, Dion's leadership style is unappealing to most voters here. Again the right time to call this riding for anyone, is days before the actual voting day whether that day falls in'08, '09 or even'10.
	07 12 06	binriso 156.34.226.67
Well when Chamberlain first won back in 1993, Frank Maine even ran as an independent and took away about 4000 votes mostly from the Liberals and they still won handily, by about 10000 votes. And its not like 1993 was a year that everyone voted Liberal. Then 1997 and 2000 came where the Liberals beat even the united right by alot, which tightened up a bit in 2004 and then became much closer in 2006. If you are going to say that the 2008 or 2009 election is going to be one of those 1993 washouts theres no way the Conservatives are going to come close to 90 seats. They’ll be lucky to get more half the seats in Ontario this time around. This might be one of them though, its a relatively close race and might be a three way race in the election if the Liberals go down and the NDP go up some in Ontario. Ill give the Liberals an advantage for now and if i was to bet id say they would win it, but the CPC although hurt by local problems benefit if the election is extended for several months in the future. They likely wont do better than a close 3rd if its held anytime soon though. NDP might sneak up with a center/center right vote splitting occurrence as well.
	07 11 09	seasaw 99.225.19.235
Still too early to call. We don't even know when the next election's going to be. For those people who think Brent Barr's firing means a Liberal win, remember 15 years ago. At that time, councillor and former MP Frank Main, was going to run and win for the Liberals, he was not allowed to; everybody said the Liberals have no chance. Well, we know the outcome of that one. I'm not saying that history will repeat itself, but it just might.
	07 11 04	Jack Cox 207.188.67.245
Well the Conservatives just handed this riding to the liberals, The Conservatives just removed Brent Barr as the candidate from this riding, and I am betting this is just going to harm the Conservatives here and in the region.
	07 11 02	T.V. 209.202.78.177
The Tory central party just fired their local candidate in Guelph, so division in their ranks can only help the Liberals. The NDP will put up a strong fight and might even win some of the University area polls, but they just won't pick up enough votes in the rest of Guelph to have a hope of winning.
	07 10 30	seasaw 99.225.19.235
The right time to predict a winner here, is in the last week of the campaign. The results here have always reflected the provincial average. Without a Liberal incumbent here it should make it a very interesting race. To the person who believes Elizabeth May could run and win here, I ask ‘ in which dream ? ‘, for the left has hardly ever done well in this riding. To Matt G, who calls this for the Liberals, I say ‘ it's too early to tell ‘; One should also not use provincial election results here and determine the federal outcome or vice versa. Just look at the past, in Fed. '84, the Tory candidate won over 55%, and just a few months later Ont.'85, the Lib candidate won by a substantial margin. In Ont. '87, the Lib. candidate won convincingly, the Tory finished a very poor third, yet in Fed. '88 the Tory candidate took it in a landslide. Fast forward ten years in Fed '97, the Liberals won without difficulty, yet in Ont. '99 the Tory candidate took it in a landslide. Also, in only 16 years since WW I, has this riding had politicians of the same stripe both in QP and Ottawa.
	07 10 15	Matt G 159.33.10.92
The Dippers on this board are dreaming. The NDP have no chance in this riding. At best, they'll hold the 22% they had last time. The NDP just finished a dismal fourth in the provincial election. Furthermore, the Tories just barely beat the Greens for second place in Guelph. This riding is progressive and not enamored with Harper. Frank Valeriote is a great candidate and should be able to hold this after a good fight with the returning Tory.
	07 08 12	Foodora 70.50.48.241
The Liberals made a foolish decision by picking Frank Valariote as their candidate. They had a far stronger, more articulate and more ‘liberal’ candidate in Marva Wisdom but chose instead to support yet another conservative Liberal who is essentially indistinguishable from his CPC rival. This will certainly bleed left-wing votes (and there are a lot of these up for grabs in Guelph) to the NDP and Greens. As a resident of the riding, I've heard many people who would have voted Liberal to block the Tories say that they will not vote Liberal now that Marva Wisdom was not chosen. It's hard to say what this will mean. The NDP has a good chance, but the left-wing vote split could just as easily mean a CPC victory. Even a Liberal victory is still possible. It all depends on how many liberal Liberals vote NDP and Green.
	07 08 08	P. Atarsus 66.46.250.130
With Tom King running for the NDP, the Tory chances just went up a whole lot. The Liberals picked a dud of a candidate in Frank Valeriotte, another socially conservative Liberal, backed by the Italian community... a constituency already voting Liberal, so not much pickup there. Due to Tom King running, look for the left of the Libs to swing to King, along with some of the Greens... and the Tories will pick up some votes due to name recognition from the last election, and people voting for the governing party, should Mr. Harper keep polling better than Dion. That being said, if the NDP bleeds as little as 3000 from the Libs (HIGHLY likely), and the Tories bleed as little as 1000, that puts this in the ‘win’ column for Mr. Harper. Plus, there's word the perenial CHP guy that runs here won't run again... that will likely translate into a 400-500 vote pickup for the Tories.
	07 08 06	A.S. 74.99.222.209
For the politically progressive-minded, Guelph's getting to be *really* fascinating, and the last municipal election's only the most visible manifestation of that--and now with Brenda Chamberlain out of the federal picture, just watch. The fact that Tom King's not only the NDP candidate, but given a very plausible chance of winning, tells it all. Except that working against him is a pattern of extraordinary *Green* strength, too--this is the kind of seat which Elizabeth May could have run in and won handily. So maybe it'll all just benefit the comparatively staid Grit/Tory forces instead, but I'll bet that at worst, the combined NDP/Green votes will outnumber either Liberal or CPC. And at best, the combined NDP/Green votes will outnumber Liberal and CPC, *combined*...
	07 04 29	Initial 74.114.226.78
I think that the election race for Guelph will be a very close race, but the NDP will just edge it out. However, should the election be called while the university is out, it may change the outcome as the influx of young, left-wing voters will not be present. The Liberal gap is being slowly closed in on by the other parties. Brenda Chamberlain has done very little for Guelph while in parliament, and voters are likely to remember this before they vote Liberal again. Brent Barr did not put up much of a contest last year, as he was expected to, and if the election is called while university is in session, the Conservatives will gain very few votes in comparison to the left-wing parties. It would take extreme vote-splitting between the Liberals/Green/NDP for this to be a Conservative seat. Tom King has the added advantage of name recognition, despite lack of political experience. This combined with the fact that voters in Guelph are becoming more disgruntled with our Liberal candidate, should lead to the NDP sneaking this one. Mike Nagy is the only candidate who has run for more than one election past, so he too has name recognition, but nowhere near the level of Tom King. Although Guelph is a fairly environmentally concerned city, I don't think we are quite ready for a Green candidate. NDP marginal seat.
	07 04 19	R.D. 12.4.238.25
Tom King has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Guelph, and I think he has the star power to win it. Here's what the Guelph Mercury had to say when he was just considering it: Tom King may not have any political experience, but you can bet the minute he throws his hat in the ring if he decides to run for the NDP nomination -- and we hope he does -- Guelph would have a federal election race on its hands being watched by more people than just those who live here. King's lack of political experience is nothing new in such situations; many candidates make the leap with no little to no background in politics. But what King lacks in political experience he more than makes up for in life and career experience: he is a member of the Order of Canada, has penned more than 10 books, is a professor at the University of Guelph and spent some time in the '60s and '70s rallying around native rights and social issues. You might also know him from his CBC radio show, ‘The Dead Dog Cafe Comedy Hour.’ There is no question Phil Allt has served the NDP well as the candidate in the past two federal elections. He's a teacher with a passion for politics and managed to secure a sizable chunk of votes in 2006 and 2004 -- 13,561 (or 22 per cent of the vote) and 10,527 (or 20 per cent) respectively. He doubled the percentage of votes the NDP received between the 2000 election and the vote held in 2004, and was a commendable candidate and debater. But with King, the local NDP riding association would have a candidate with national name recognition, and the excellent race that is already brewing behind the scenes would become that more interesting. Source: ‘King would boost excitement factor’ (editorial), Guelph Mercury 3/6/07.
	07 04 13	24.81.18.126
I will be very interested to see who the Liberals will run here (in all likelihood, a female, with Dion trying to run 33% female candidate). I do think, however, that the CPC has a very good chance here. The CPC are strong in small, urban cities like Guelph and I think the candidate who ran in 2006 (and is running again this time) is a very strong one. Brent Barr brought the CPC vote count up 5000+ from 2004, while Brenda Chamberlain's hovered around the same number of votes in 2004 and 2006. She was also one of the social conservatives of the Liberal Party, so this riding would not be hostile to Barr's more socially conservative views.
	07 04 10	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
In all likelihood, this should stay Liberal since despite the lack of an incumbent, this is a university town and university towns tend to be far more liberal than surrounding areas. In the US, many communities with major universities went strongly Democrat (such as Missoula, Tompkins County, New York, East Lansing, Michigan) despite being surrounded by heavily Republican areas, so Guelph in some ways is Canada's version of Missoula, Montana; Austin, Texas; or Ithaca, New York. And unlike McMaster University where many of the students reside in the Western suburbs of the GTA or other Hamilton ridings, the vast majority reside in Guelph. A strong NDP split is essentially needed to turn this to the Tories. In addition I would say the Tories chances of winning here are much better if the election is held in the late spring or summer when university is not in session than if held during the other parts of the year.
	07 04 03	Rob C 204.42.175.210
Given the 2006 election sweep of progressive candidates in Municipal elections, expect to see some local issues bleed into the next federal campaign if it is held in the next 6 months. This should be a very close race. It may be one that has a lightening bolt close to the end. Brent Barr, who ran last time, was re-nominated over Councillor Gloria Kovach to run for the CPC on March 21, 2006. On April 12, 2007 it appears the Liberals will nominate Marva Wisdom. She is the consituent manager for Liberal MPP Liz Sandals. She also worked in the same capacity for MP Brenda Chamberlain.
	07 04 02	Stevo 66.11.64.1
The Conservatives want this seat badly. They have test-driven many of their policy planks in Guelph - the mid-sized city represents the demographic that wasn't quite ready for the Tories in 2006 but will decide their majority/minority fate in 2007. With a new Liberal candidate and respectable Conservative results in 2006, this one could flip, but it will be a fight to the finish. Guelph is pulled by Liberal Toronto/Peel Region on the east, and Conservative Cambridge and Fergus to the south and north respectively. Too close to call, definitely.
	07 03 25	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 65.92.158.120
With Chamberlain not running again, the CPC faring well in non-metropolitan urban centers and a decent CPC showing in 2006, this riding could go either Liberal or Conservative. We're just going to have to see how the election race starts to shape up before anything definitive can be said about Guelph.