Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:10 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:36 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Phil Allt
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Brenda Chamberlain
Manuel Couto
Jon Dearden
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Peter Ellis
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Mike Nagy
Parti Marijuana Party:
Lyne Rivard

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Guelph-Wellington (100.0%)
Hon. Brenda Chamberlain

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,990 49.11%
8,857 18.92%
8,384 17.91%
5,248 11.21%
1,334 2.85%

(210/242 polls, 78714/89801 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Conservative Jon Dearden, by beating Marie Adsett, has shown the Ontario PC took over the Federal PC aka the Harris-MacKay coalition or the BradGate Committee even though the redistribution of Guelph does favour Martinite backbencer Brenda Chamberlain. The University of Guelph single-handedly engineered Ontario's environment in the rural regions so watch the Greens suck on exhaust but the issue is still same-sex marriage so figure that one out as Brenda tries to before she follows Elliot as the other Brenda. But if anymore EGALE activists visit Cowtown and poke their sign sticks into the faces of another deaf old men, be sure to bring the pepperspray/tazer and Dr. Kevorkian to finish the job they came and started because they sure left a media mess in that community.
22/06/04 David Josephy
Email: [hidden]
This riding should not be listed as a sure Liberal "hold".
Yes, I am an NDP partisan, but I think that it is objectively fair to list Guelph now as "Too Close to Call".
Brenda Chamberlain has been a popular person in the riding, but her local campaign has been a flop; she has tried to distance herself from Paul Martin, although everyone knows she was one of his most ardent partisans in the Liberal caucus under Chretien.
The Greens may do "well" - but that still means 7% instead of 5%.
Dearden has been a no-show at campaign events and is widely distrusted.
Guelph has a record of being a bellwether riding.
This is a three-way race now, and bears watching.
17/06/04 The Dude
Chamberlain has been a hard worker and is a well-known commodity. But her close association with Paul Martin won't necessarily help her here. Guelph is a bellweather riding - and how Ontario goes, so will Guelph. Jon Dearden is a complete unknown local businessman. His fortunes will be totally dependent on if people decide to punish the Liberals and elect a Conservative government. Still too close to call at this point. Chamberlain will have difficulty convincing progressive voters in Guelph, of which there are many to vote for her to stop the Tories - she sided with Harper and voted against equal marriage in the recent vote in the House. Not a smart move considering the majority of people in Guelph now have little trouble with the concept of same sex marriage and equal treatment under the law. If Chamberlain loses by less than 500 votes, it'll be because progressive voters saw little difference b/n her and the Tories on key issues.
08/06/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure how this riding will go, but it did make the national news the other day. At a Conservative meeting in Guelph, a gay rights activist tried to ask questions of Stephen Harper and got punched and hit by a stick. If the Liberals decide to pick up on this the video of people with Conservative signs hitting someone could put a hole in Stephen Harper's ship.
08/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Ah, Bruce Abel. So *that* explains Ben Polley's outsize Green result, or why I saw so many Green signs on apparent erstwhile NDP lawns in 2003--here's one Ontario seat where the "split in the left" was and may remain real. Because otherwise, the campus town Red Toryness of Guelph would be relatively amenable (by SW Ontario standards) to the Layton message--look, the NDP scored over 10% in *2000*. So, with the rural parts cleaved out, and the assumption that Harper won't sell in the city, it ought to be a free ride for Chamberlain--right? Trouble is, the *former* provincial riding of Guelph, which was coterminous with the city, easily went with the Mike Harris flow in 1995...
26/05/04 Bruce Abel
Email: green4canada@planet-save.com
I agree with the previous analysis, but not the outcome. My % predictions: Liberals drop from 49% to 40%; Conservatives move up from 18% to 25% by uniting the right; NDP, up from 11% to 20%; Green Party up from 2% to 14%; and, CHP at 1%.
Thanks Rhetorical Ray for clearly showing that the Green Party is composed of former members of all political parties. That’s why we say that we are neither right nor left — we are in front.
24/05/04 Rhetorical Ray
Email: [hidden]
Do not underestimate the contacts the NDP have made with disenchanted Liberals. Phil Allt's first flyer is sharp. Very sharp. May be some surprising local supporters...maybe not.
I expect the Liberals to bleed red in Guelph. Many going to Dearden, most going to Allt.
P.S. Mr Abel was a recent candidate for the NDP. Now he insults the party he once believed so strongly in?!? Furthermore, Green leader Jim Harris is a former conservative! Jim has been described as this: "he seems to care more about corporate lobbies of high-tech clean energy companies than education funding" Wonder how many Green voters know that? Check your ideology folks!
11/05/04 Bruce Abel
Email: green4canada@planet-save.com
Interesting question from "To The Max" as to Guelph being a possible Green pickup. I hadn’t considered it, but strange things happen in politics. MP’s have been and will be elected with less than 30% (another reason for proportional representation). The key questions are where will a) Soft Liberals frustrated with the Martin leadership go? b) Red Tories who don’t accept the Alliance values go? c) Where will the youth/first time vote go, given the non-partisan campaigns to get the youth vote out? Back to my prediction: GPC will grow from new voters, soft Liberals and Red Tories. How much? That’s the enjoyable part of being Green … all increases represent a victory.
05/05/04 To The Max
I'm just curious if people are indicating that this could be a possible Green pickup? If so, I must ask how? Aside from what I could see as a respectable showing in Guelph U.'s 5 odd polls, the Greens really don't have much room to grow in Guelph.
02/05/04 Bruce Abel
Email: communications@greenparty.ca
D farmer notes one Green vote scenario – a decline. There are other possibilities – the % is maintained or increases.
1) Locally the NDP retained their traditional % vote in the Ontario election. Ben Polley’s 7% wasn’t taken from NDP supporters – it came from other areas. 2) The Mike Nagy Team, with campaign manager Ben Polley, now has election experience. They are, as a result, focused and election-ready. 3) Polls consistently give GPC 5% nationally. The NDP "green policy" platform has shown no impact on GPC support. 4) BC surveys asked Green voters, "If the Green Party (GP) did not exist, how would you have voted?" 30% said they would not have voted at all. Another 30% would have voted right and the remaining 40% would have voted left. This suggests the GPC is: a) drawing support from across the political spectrum and b) bring more people into the democratic process. 5) In the ’96 BC election, the GP won 2%. In ‘01, the GP was polling at 5%. Then, BCTV included the Green leader in the televised debate. On Election Day, the GP got 12.4%. Inclusion in the TV debate is seen as the factor in this 640% increase in votes. The GPC is determined to have Jim Harris participate in the National TV debates. Voter support could change dramatically as many Canadians get to see Green policies for the first time. My prediction: Green votes in Guelph will increase.
10/04/04 D farmer
Email: [hidden]
Layton and the NDP's "green policy" platform released as their first platform highlights their priority of Environmental issues, something the provincial NDP/Howard didn't represent well in the Provincial Election. They have basically just picked up 2,500-3,000 Polley/Green Party vote from the Provincial election. That's about 10,000 'presumed votes' for the NDP. Not enough to yet win but a good start before an election even gets under way.
10/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Even though I am a life long Conservative, I agree that this riding will stay in the Liberal column...for now. With staunchy conservative Wellington county joining Perth and Halton, the prospects don't look as good for the Conservatives here (this wasn't a vote-splitting riding by a long shot even with Wellington). I always thought this riding was more bellwether than anything, provincially going with whoever wins and federally as well for the most part. If the Conservatives do win most of the Ontario seats, this will go Tory, but not yet at this point.
08/04/04 Dory
Email: [hidden]
First, I think clearly the Liberals' contempt for the Canadian public won't go unnoticed, and Chamberlain must be held accountable. Second, Chamberlain has been a Martinite for years and years and even then it didn't do her any good in his government. She's still on the backbench, giving scripted speeches and generally following along with the crowd. This riding may be more difficult for the Conservatives because of the loss of the rural areas, but I think the new party will do better electorally now that it is one clear alternative. My sense is that the "conservatives" have stayed home in numbers the last number of elections because there was no point...
And as for Dearden, he also has a background with the Ontario PCs - so I wouldn't be too quick to paint this as simply an Alliance take over. The local association has a good mix of both parties - the best of both, in my opinion, and that will make for a strong team.
26/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
this one will remain a liberal seat, after the liberal victory in october plus the fact that all the rual area of the ridding is now part of wellington halton hills, i can't see either the Tories or the NDP putting up much of a fight here, the tories will put there efort into the wellington and halton ridings and the NDP into the K-W area, it's a cake walk for the liberals
25/03/04 Stevens
Email: [hidden]
Chamberlain has done so little for this riding in terms of results that her constituents can see. She has sat, and continues to sit essentially at the government's backbenches. The people of Guelph are used to being represented by more than just in name (provincial cabinet ministers, P.A.s etc). They will see through this and, like all of Canada and Ontario start asking the Liberals 'what have you done for me lately?'. The honest true really is: nothing.
Ontarians have been represented by over 100 Liberal MPs for nearly a decade and what has that got them? Nearly nothing. A stronger NDP will rob Brenda of votes, and the Conservatives will get the recognition they deserve.
Guelph residents know that the for change has come. And that change comes with the Conservatives.
18/03/04 D. Farmer
Email: [hidden]
Chaimberlain has too many weak spots in her armour to gamble with. She lives outside the riding. She doesn't fall in line about the same sex marraige issue as her liberal companions do. She has recieved little from the PM in encouragement of ministerial positions. She has lost the support of past Liberal organizers. 22,900 in 2000. My guess 16,000.
However, John Dearden, the Conservative candidate doesn't fair much better. His origin wipes away any doubt the Alliance didn't swallow the Troies hole. He was a exec memeber of the local. Furthermore, his beating of Adsett in the nomination battle proves this. Dearden has a fairly high profile amoung local political animals but not much outside of that. It would be foly to think the CA and Tory votes from thelast election will add up this time. 8,800 + 8,300 = 17,100. My Guess 13,000 tops.
NDP? Who knows. Depends on the local candidate somewhat. I expect that the central campaign will draw in thousands of votes for the local candidate. Most of those votes will come form left-liberals mainly on the same sex marriage issue and the epiry date on Chaimberlain. Jack Layton will also draw in quickly the Green votes lost in the last Prov. election. Guelph could prove to be a swing riding the NDP are looking at should support swell during the campaign. 6,600 + 3,500 = 10,100. I expect 13,000.
That's pretty close to call now. Check back when all candidates are chosen and platforms are released.
17/03/04 RWA
The NDP won't be a factor here, and this is not on the list for Conservative breakthrough ridings in Ontario, let alone urban breakthrough ridings.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
With the redistribution, Brenda is quite safe running in Guelph. The more right wing part of the former riding (Guelph-Wellington) has been chopped off, leaving the more liberal minded city of Guelph ripe for her picking. Relativly safe liberal keep.

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