Update/Mise à jour:
10:39 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:06 PM 08/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Guelph
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
NDP/NPD
Phil Allt
Conservative/conservateur
Brent Barr
Libearl/libéral
Brenda Chamberlain
Marxist-Leninist
Manuel Couto
Christian Heritage
Peter Ellis
Communist
Scott Gilbert
Green/Vert
Mike Nagy

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Brenda Chamberlain

2004 Result/Résultats:
Brenda Chamberlain
23442
Jon Dearden
13721
Phil Allt
10527
Mike Nagy
3866
Peter Ellis
634
Lyne Rivard
291
Manuel Couto
66

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

14 01 06 The Dude
My prediction last spring has come true - the Conservative surge in Ontario has put seats in the golden horseshoe on the verge of turning. Chamberlain alienated this riding's substantial progressive underbelly when she voted against equal marriage. She's also well-known as a conservative Liberal, having held a Conservative membership prior to her first election in 1993. Now that the Tories are surging, local Tory candidate Brent Barr, who is more in line with this riding's social liberal/fiscal conservative bent, looks well positioned to knock off Chamberlain. Progressive voters have no incentive whatsoever to vote for Chamberlain - in fact, they have an incentive to vote for Brent Barr, who is in favour of equal marriage, to stop Chamberlain.
13 01 06 A.T
The tide in Guelph appears to be turning, turning towards the Conservatives. I did not see a single Brenda sign up until after Chrismtas (except a few lawn signs). I think that will prove to be a disasterous mistake for Ms. Chamberlain. The problem in past elections is that she hasn't really had a solid opponent, well this time in Brent Barr she does. Well respected and well known and a very moderate voice. Paul Martin made a major campaign stop here in Guelph, he would not have done that if they needed help here. This will be a close one but if the rest of the country goes Blue, which it appears they are, Guelph I think will too.
11 01 06 G.K,
This one should be in the TCTC column (but I can't call a Tory victory just yet). Brenda Chamberlain has gone MIA once again, missing two all- candidates debates tonight, and the word is that she is keeping such appearances to a minimum. The NDP, Greens, and even the Communists (Gilbert is a somewhat controversial leader in the UOG's student union) have serious potential to shift votes away from the Grits.
Having said that, Brenda still maintains a strong presence in the community, and it appears that her campaign team is still fighting this one out. Barr is undoubtedly a strong candidate, but he is still something of a neophyte; his presentation is overly polished, and he is clearly running a highly personal campaign, on mostly local issues (In his remarks tonight to students, he said the words "Stephen Harper" twice, in passing).
It may not be enough to win over voters who've stuck to Chamberlain since her days on Council. Coupled with the NDP making one final push towards the undecided, this could turn into a surprise three-way race. This will be one to watch on election night.
11 01 06 Fodor
I have to agree with M. Lunn. People have said much about university students not voting. While this may be true to a certain extent, it is important to remember that a univetrsity town such as Guelph draws in not only students, but thousands of faculty members, researchers and related professionals (and their families). These people are highly educated and are unlikely to vote for the ultra right CPC. I work at the university and while most people seem to be NDP or Green supporters, my impression is that there is going to be alot of strategic voting going on to block the Tory candidate. I think Chamberlain will lose many votes (more socially tolerant voters will not like her conservative social views and true hardline conservatives will simply vote Tory), but I think she'll squeak through due to strategic voting.
04 01 06 M. Lunn
It is true the CPC are improving in Southwestern Ontario and had the old riding boundaries of Guelph-Wellington been used they mave had a shot at this. But this is an urban riding and most of the CPC gains in Southwestern Ontario have been in rural areas not urban areas. When you combine with the university and the general left leaning character of the city, this will easily stay Liberal despite Brenda Chamberlain being a more right leaning Liberal. It has only been a bellwether riding in the past since it included rural areas which have been moved to Wellington-Halton Hills.
03 01 06 BBS
Barr in a nail-biter.(3 to 6 hundred votes) I spent some time in Guelph over the holidays. Got a good look at the CPC organization. Chamberlain did not do any campaigning whatsoever in the first three weeks, stating she would not start until after Christmas. This will probably go down as one of the more foolish political decisions ever made. Barr's VoterID is fantastic. The team is solid, organized and geared up for the final run.
Like many other EDAs in the Southwest, people are reading far too much into the results from the last election. Guelph has always been a bellwether riding, and will probably be again. The CPC had a throw-away candidate last time, that certainly is not the case this time.
21 12 05 PFR
Brent Barr will be aided greatly by the Michael Chong bounce in Guelph. Add that to the fact that he is a much stronger candiate than Jon Dearden and you got a race on your hands. Like Chong, Barr is a red tory and that should help to win him a lot of votes in Guelph which clearly is not the most socially conservative city in southwestern Ontario. In addition, his impressive business backround will help to swing over a lot of votes to the conservatives. This riding will be going blue on election day.
20 12 05 David H.
I can't understand why people think university students are somehow a monolithic bloc of NDP voters. Every campus in the country has a well-organized Liberal and Conservative club, and I'd say that most campuses (including Guelph) probably tilt Liberal more than any other party. All of this is rather irrelevant since returning officers tend to make it difficult for students to vote in their school riding, and most prefer to vote in their more familiar home riding anyway.
01 12 05 Bear and Ape
We said this God-knows-how-many-times, whether school is in or out it makes little difference to the riding where the university is located. University students have one of the lowest turn out rates. Couple that with the fact that students who don't live in the riding will vote in their home riding, not the riding where they are during school. Sorry to burst your bubble, but this will have very little effect on the election outcome in Guelph. Chamberlain again with about 10K votes.
30 11 05 mini phreek
School is in, in this very university town, this will give the NDP a big boost to the 20% they got last time, it will also cripple the Tory chances in this riding. However Chamberlen will not be easy to unseat, she still has a huge base in Guelph and even with an upsurge in dipper support it is unlikely it will be enough to lose, i think this might become a toss up if there is a swing to the NDP in the last week of the election.
30 11 05 Guelphite
Mr. Morgan, your evaluation of the race in Guelph couldn't be more wrong. First of all, Chamberlain voted against same sex marriage, a position held by half of the population of this country, yet apparently shes is basing her decision on "blatant homophobia and bigotry"? You better hope Mr. Barr doesn't hold this same opinion, I've heard its not good to start off by alienating 50% of the electorate, you should have a little more respect for people if you want to win their vote.
Secondly, why would the people of Guelph vote for a Conservative who wants to run as a Liberal when they could vote for the real thing? I know this is Mr. Barr's first foray into politics however you would hope his campaign team would know better.
06 09 05 A.S.
Red Tory vs Blue Liberal; yeah, it looks like an interesting 2-way on paper. But keep in mind that the college-town (and *agricultural* college-town, at that) undercurrent has led the once rote bellwether jurisdiction of Guelph to take a turn for the radical over the past generation; except for Kormos-i-fied Welland, it was the only non-Hamilton/London/Windsor seat in SW Ontario where the "united left" outpolled the Tories in '04. Problem is, it's a left that resists unifying, i.e. all too many radical old-school Red Tory types who'd rather park their organizational energy w/anything from Mel Hurtig in 1993 to the Greens in recent years--yet even with that split in place, the NDP eked out a 20% finish and, in a common Southern Ontario pattern, was a far more ominously efficient poll-winner than the Tories. Methinks that given the stigmas that continue to be attached to CPC, a moderate federal Tory running in Guelph *now* is but a forlorn orphan--best to wait for the next provincial election under John Tory (or settle for Mike Chong continuing to represent the periphery on Parliament Hill). While Brenda Chamberlain remains the default choice, weird things can happen: if Guelph's present-day penchant for bottom-feeding electoral radicalism were translated into British parliamentary terms, this'd be a Labour seat ripe for the plucking by Charles Kennedy's Lib Dems, for sure...
23 05 05 Ernest Heath
I agree with previous posts that this is a fairly socially liberal riding, but with the university population, it is economically liberal as well, meaning that no Conservative candidate is likely to emerge victorious. A socially liberal Conservative will alienate small-c conservative voters, and social conservatives will have little difficulty re-electing an independent-minded MP in Brenda Chamberlain. The many social liberals would not vote for the somewhat socially conservative Stephen Harper, irrespective of the local candidate. Expect Ms. Chamberlain to prevail once more if there is an election.
13 05 05 Morgan
A right-wing Liberal (Chamberlain) against a socially progressive Conservative (Barr) could pose quite a dilemma for voters in this riding. Guelph is a university town with a well educated population, and Chamberlain’s willingness to base political decisions on her own fundamentalist religious convictions will not go over well with many voters. Her blatant homophobia and bigotry have been perceived in a negative light by many in the riding (particularly among those who are more likely to vote) and this could send many of the left-wing votes to the NDP candidate. Meanwhile, Barr, with his more sophisticated social views, may appeal to many centre of the road voter who would ordinarily not vote Conservative. The split could very well lead to a Conservative victory.
09 05 05 JS
With Brent Barr (Chamber of Commerce)running for the conservatives, Brenda Chamberlains lock on Guelph could finally be broken. Brent is a centre right candidate like Brenda, people in Guelph can finally vote for someone other than Brenda and still have a quality representative. Its been along time since a quality candidate ran against Brenda. Could be one of the closest races in the area. If the province finally decides to dump some Liberals Brenda is a likely candidate.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
Under the old boundaries of Guelph-Wellington, the Conservatives would have had a good shot, but with this riding now being entirely, urban I think the Brenda Chamberlain has got it locked up. This has a large university population, which should make it difficult for the Conservatives and also Brenda Chamberlain is an independent minded MP who will vote against the government when she disagrees with them.
08 05 05 The Dude
Chamberlain, like other Liberals in the heart of the Golden Horseshoe, easily took this riding last time, but as previous elections have taught us, when the Golden Horseshoe decides to switch allegiances, it does so with a vengeance. If Stephen Harper is going to break through in Ontario and form a government, the Tories will take Guelph - plus other places nearby like Kitchener, Waterloo and Burlington, etc. Voters in comfortable areas like Guelph will give incumbents huge re-election victories if they're not ready to toss them out, but look out when they decide they are ready. Just ask Brenda Elliott, the PC MPP who won Guelph provincially in 1999 with 52% of the vote, but then went on to lose badly just four years later. This is a swing riding and elects the winning party everytime.
Generally well-regarded as a person and a hard worker, most constituents have caught on that Chamberlain will never make cabinet or do much more than simply be a good constituency MP. Most now realize there isn't anything particularly special about her. Her opposition to same sex marriage reflects a lack of sophistication and a sad unwillingness to lead - in a riding that is very mainstream, and with a hot underbelly of progressiveness that has no problem with equality. If Brent Barr, the Conservative candidate is in favour of same sex marriage, many progressive types for whom this issue is important will vote for him just to stop Chamberlain. While Liberals in most places will be able to rely on lefty-progressive voters to save their bacon against socially conservative Conservatives, expect the opposite to happen here.
07 05 05 A Guelphite
Chamberlain will be re-elected in Guelph. The marriage issue will be a major campaign issue in Guelph and there is a reason why Chamberlain is opting to vote against her party in favour of the traditional definition of marriage. The Conservatives just recently nominated Brent Barr to run as their candidate. He is in favour of same sex marriage and this position alone will indefinately derail his campaign. Chamberlain has nothing to fear.



Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster