Prediction Changed
11:14 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Kuhn, Axel
Schaffer, Marion
New Democratic
Schwartz, Joseph
Wrzesnewskyj, Borys

Borys Wrzesnewskyj

2006 Result:
Borys Wrzesnewskyj **
Axel Kuhn
Cynthia Cameron
John Vanderheyden
Norman Dundas
France Tremblay

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 28 rebel
Pm Harper's visit to Richview Collegiate's Alumni is a strong hint that he thinks this riding is shakey and is on his target list.
The Conservatives have to gain quite a lot of traction to break into any Toronto seats but if the Liberals cannot stop their freefall of this past week, by Election Day the Conservatives will break into 905 and be competitive in 2-3 Toronto ridings.
08 09 21 Jason
I know this is Boris' to lose. Boris is VERY popular in this district but I'm just reporting based on the so-called sign war.
Looking ONLY at signs on private properties (and I drove through basically the entire region), there is literally a 5-1 ratio of Conservative to Liberal signs.
Whether that translates to a Conservative win is questionable, considering the past margins of victory but it is at the the very least, interesting to see so much BLUE on the streets of Etobicoke-Centre.
This could be a bit closer of a race than last time around.
08 09 11 BB in T.O
After driving through the riding today; it appears that if we were going just on signs, that Borys will definitely take this one. I was heading eastbound on the Westway ave. and it is literally lined with red signs.
Axel is definitely outnumbered; cons have a better chance in Etobicoke south with a more Anglo base than in Etobicoke Centre.
08 09 08 Andrewbythelake
It's the perfect mix of circumstances for Axel Kuhn to pick up this riding. Firstly, he has name-recognition not only from 2006, but from heavily marketing in the riding. Third, since this riding, like most GTA ridings, has significant pockets of ethnic voters, Kuhn and the party have done immense work in ethnic-outreach and now new-Canadians have little to worry about what kind of policies Harper would enact since all of his immigration policies have been pragmatic and fair. Fourth, E-C has the highest concentration of seniors in Canada. As we all know, seniors tend to lean conservative on most issues.
08 05 08 R.O.
Not sure where some of you get the idea that a conservative winning etobicoke centre is that impossible. Mean it used to be one of the most conservative seats in the city of Toronto and the home riding of high profile cabinet ministers like Chris Stockwell and Michael Wilson. well it has obviously changed in recent years as the city of Toronto has but its still largely the same riding. So I wouldn?t say conservative candidate Axel Kuhn has no chance at all in such a riding especially when the conservatives are in power. Although the liberals and mps like Borys Wrzesnewskyj will put up a good campaign to try and hold these ridings. But I am willing to say its still a competitive riding.
07 12 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Is Etobicoke Centre becoming the Windsor-Tecumseh of 2008? For those of you who don't remember, we argued with a plethora of CPC supporters that insisted that Windsor-Tecumseh will go Tory on election night. The CPC came in a dismal third place. Now it seems all that energy is being focused on this riding having conceded Windsor-Tecumseh. So why are we not buying the argument for the CPC? First, the hidden agenda: true Canadians no longer fear that, however they have not warmed up to the CPC either. If they did their poll numbers would not be as sad as they are.
Second, Dion as an alternative: yeah he's lack-luster, but why do the Liberals still dominate Toronto (recall Etobicoke is in Toronto). Polls consistantly show this AND the most recent polls show the CPC have lost significant ground (from what little they have) in the major urban centers.
Third, trageting this riding: the Torys can target this riding all they want, but unless they can start really reaching urban voters (and polls stubbornly say they are not...must be very frustrating for them), it will mean absolutly nothing that a slightly closer race.
Fourth, Axel Kuhn: so what if he ran before? Urban voters go for parties, not candidates (exceptions are star candidates) and as excellent a candidate Mr. Kuhn may be, he isn't a star candidate.
As for Borys, yeah he has made some major blunders, but honestly, who outside of political circles or the Jewish and Lebanese communities really remember the Hezbollah comments? And so what if he's a backbencher, again, urban voters vote for the party over the candidate.
The race does have the potential to be closer had the key empirical evidence, the poll numbers, were remotely close in Toronto. They are not and is why we are adamantly dismissive of any CPC prediciton here. If Borys was running in a closer riding (mississauga South for instance), then all of the arguments made would be quite valid. Unfortunately for the CPC they don't hold water in a riding with over a 10K margin of victory for the LIberals.
07 12 18 T.V.
Keep dreaming. He won by 11,000 votes last time, and the Liberals are virtually unchanged in Ontario since last election. That doesn't add up to anything but a solid hold.
07 12 10 callenconservative
Conservative by a slim margin!
Borys W has been remarkably invisible since being re-elected. And when he is visible, it seems he is always putting his foot in his mouth. He got attacked by his own MPs for his support of Hezbollah, is a complete backbencher, and recently spoke at the funeral service of a Tamil militia leader. WOW. Not exactly policies that align with the values of this middle-of-the-road community.
Yes the Conservatives were very behind in the 2006 election, but you have to consider a couple of things:
Firstly, there is no more hidden agenda to contend with.
Secondly, Canadians now have Dion to look at as an alternative. Enough said.
Thirdly, according to my friends in the Conservative party, Etobicoke Centre is being targeted as one of the 3 or 4 priority ridings in Toronto (Don Valley West, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Willowdale, etc.). Apparently the Conservatives are building a pretty strong organization in the riding, while the Liberals are said to have very little money.
Fourthly, Axel Kuhn's name is now out there. Before 2006 he was a complete unknown. And Borys hasnt exactly furthered his name recognition (in a positive way, at least)
Get ready for a close race!!
07 12 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Don't be so quick in comparing Quebec voters with Toronto voters. Quebecers are FAR more fickle in their voting habits. True about Borys not being as strong as an MP as his predecessors. True too that the CPC may have a slim chance if the stars align properly. However there is one major factor that many people forget or choose to ignore. That is despite some wiggling in poll numbers, the Liberal's numbers have not changed much. This means that only the close races from 2006 are in play (this ain't a close race!). Granted, a very strong CPC candidate, pooled resources, etc etc could tip it to the Tories. However there isn't evidence of such at the moment(this would only really manifest itself during an actual campaign). Till then, a Liberal hold.
07 11 28 seasaw
This riding has had a tradition of strong MP's and MPP's, such as Alan Rock, Donna Cansfield, Chris Stockwell and Michael Wilson. With all due respect for Borys, he does not fall into that category. He took the riding largely on Paul Martin and Alan Rock's coattails. Unfortunately, Dion is no Paul Martin, and this may be only one of two ridings in 416 that CPC has a slim chance. So, with a strong candidate and pooled resources, this riding may go CPC. To those people who predict that the CPC will not win seats in 416, remember, just two years ago, they were saying the same thing about them in Quebec and look what happened.
07 10 28 binriso
Ok ive looked over the last 2 election predictions for this riding, and both in 2004 and 2006 more people predicted CPC than Liberal. The Liberals ended up winning in landslides, 15000 in 2004 and 11000 in 2006. Not even close at all. 93 changed politics in Canada so those who use the arguments about Mike Wilson, it really doesnt matter so much any more. Provincially, the PCs did win here in 1999, but it had a lot to do with the candidate, Chris Stockwell. When he resigned he probably hurt more GTA PC candidates than just his own riding, leading to the Liberal sweep in 2003. Not to mention theres more and more immigrants here which means the Liberals will hold it again next time and the CPC will not touch the 416 GTA seats once again, just like the PCs didnt provincially.
07 10 25 TorontoCon
As much of a ‘lock’ this riding is and with the huge popularity of Boris as a person, his party is in deep trouble. I think that Boris will still win this riding DESPITE his party. I see Boris losing 20% of his votes from the last election bringing him to about 23,000 and the Conservative and NDP candidates will split up those losses between them.
Unfortunately, even if the Conservative candidate Axel Khun nabs half of those votes, that won't be enough to unseat Boris (which would be about 21,000 votes). 2000 votes difference......
Boris' regional popularity should save him but I would consider putting MANY currently liberal ridings into the ‘too close’ category, considering Dion's failed leadership.
07 04 07 A.S.
For all the talk about Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre is or ought to be the truer sensible-shoes E-Tory-Coke heartland; it's where Michael Wilson once stood federally, it's where Chris Stockwell most recently stood provincially, it's where Doug Holyday and Gloria Lindsay Luby stand municipally, and it's where the PM spent his Dan DeCarlo years. S-o-l-i-d Cold War middle-class (well, leaving aside apartments along the 427 and Dixon and Eglinton, that is). But disarray has beset the Conservative riding association in recent years, which is why EC's wound up playing second fiddle to E-L. And as the demos grow less WASPy, political reality grows more blurry; not only is current MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj a splendid embodiment of Dion/Kennedy-era ‘new-look’ Gen X progressive Liberalism, his rep as a foreign-affairs caucus maverick might well score him more electoral-conscience points than it loses, even among many old-school Progressive (note) Conservatives. It'd certainly make CPC attacks on him look positively parvenu-churlish now, even if, on paper, this seat is within the radar of vulnerability. It's just as well that the ex-Tory 416 becomes the last bastion of Chretien/Martin-era conscientious anti-Toryism, as if the sponsorship scandal never happened and Dion/Kennedy really is the bees knees--sort of like how onetime Tory Glasgow and Manchester seats swung permanently away during the Thatcher years...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This may have once elected Conservatives, after all it was Mike Wilson's former federal riding and Chris Stockwell's provincially, but those days are clearly over. Toronto is now solidly Liberal and no matter how much the Tories may gain elsewhere, Toronto is one area they won't and that includes this riding.

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