Update/Mise à jour:
11:29 AM 19/01/2006

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La prévision a changé
11:42 PM 10/05/2005
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Etobicoke Centre

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Cynthia Cameron
Progressive Canadian
Norman Dundas
Axel Kuhn
France Tremblay
John Vanderheyden
Borys Wrzesnewskyj

Borys Wrzesnewskyj

2004 Result/Résultats:
Borys Wrzesnewskyj
Lida Preyma
John Richmond
Margo Pearson
France Tremblay

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18 01 06 James
The Etobicoke Centre candidates meetings are over without any real conclusive winner. Judging from the sign poll, they appear to be running neck and neck. I believe Borys will take this riding but it will probably be tight. I think the ethnic vote will carry Borys first past the post. It really depends on how many people actually vote.
16 01 06 Todd S.
Etobicoke Centre has voted ONCE for an opposition MP - Michael Wilson in 1980. The current numbers indicate that the Tories will win BIG. Most voters in this riding vote for the Party most likely to form government. In short, Etobicoke Centre voters do not tolerate opposition MPs. Etobicoke Centre will go blue if the Tories stay in the lead. See this as the only riding in the 416 to go Blue on Election Day.
13 01 06 MF
I'd give a slight edge to the Liberals here, given their huge margin of victory last time, but after Etobicoke-Lakeshore, this is the second-most likely pickup for the Tories in 416. If they had a high-profile candidate, such as Gloria Luby or Michael Wilson, I think they would have taken it. With Axel Kuhn, they have a slight chance.
05 01 06 love, sydney
Although Borys is not high profile, he won by an incredibly strong plurality. That he may lose by 6-7,000 votes to Axel Kuhn, a businessman with some acumen, will not be a small feat. Despite the shifting current of public opinion, this riding looked to be fairly safe until the 'Gun violence' issue hit the fan.
03 01 06 JSH
To be labelled as a backbencher is one thing, to be the invisible back bencher is another. Poor Borys. And to have the endorsement of David Miller rescinded as well, wow! I hope Borys enjoyed his short stay in Ottawa
18 12 05 MH
Michael Wilson's victories from 1979 (when he knocked off the Hon. Alistair Gillespie) through 1988 demonstrate that the Conservatives can win in this constituency. Only in 1984 was Mr. Wilson's margin of victory really big, however, and ever since he retired from politics the Liberals have taken Etobicoke Centre handily.
A big shift in voter support in Toronto could put this in the Conservative column once again, but nothing that has happened in the election campaign so far suggests that a shift that big is at all likely. The personality of the Conservative candidate is almost certainly irrelevant. Borys Wrzesnewskyj seems poised to return to the House of Commons.
14 12 05 James
The 2004 election was not about Borys but about an extremely poor CPC candidate. That candidate was so divisive within her own ranks that the sitting CPC riding President publicly withdrew his support.
To better understand this riding, one must go back to 200o election when the two conservative parties ran quality candidates, especially the Alliance. The combined conservative vote was 39% and Cabinent Minister Liberal Alan Rock took 56%.
With the extreme mood for change, a CPC candidate that fits the profile of the Etobicoke Centre constituents, I expect a tight race with the winner being within 1000-1500 votes.
Additionally, Borys is only really certain to get the Ukranian vote due to the Etobicoke Lakeshore mess. Borys has spent considerable time outside of the country looking after democratic rights in the Ukraine and Somolia. His last riding piece was all about him in Somolia and nothing about EC. Remember elections are all local.
Borys also gave a visionary speech in the 2004 election about a national vision tied to a local vision and he has failed to deliver on any of that vision.
The drawback with Axel Kuhn, is he has retained some of the campaign team from the previous CPC candidate and they are still saying some pretty divisive stuff about other conservatives. Axel has to get that stuff under control. Axel has been concentrating on traditional conservative polls and unfortunately has been ignoring the soft Liberal polls.
Even with all that, the mood for change should assist Axel and I will go out on a limb and suggest that if Harper retains above 32% support nationally, then Axel will ekee out a well deserved victory
14 12 05 M. Lunn
This riding will not go Conservative. It may have gone for the PCs in the 80s and provincially PCs, but in 2004, the Liberals clobbered the Tories and regardless of the candidates they likely will again as Stephen Harper's conservatism has no traction whatsoever in the 416 area code.
13 12 05 Mark
From talking to members of the community, and gauging their responses, I feel there's a good chance this riding will go conservative this election. First off, we here in Etobicoke Centre like to see some higher level of Government involvement than just a straight-up MP, and there's no way Borys is going to get one of Martin's cabinet posts, since his ideals differ from Martin's significantly. On the other hand, Axel Kuhn (the Conservative Candidate) has a good shot at forming a part of the Conservative cabinet, as he's a very charismatic man, a leader of industry, and doesn't have too many policies that contradict Harper's. Next there's the fact that Borys hasn't done anything noticeable for the Etobicoke centre community (albeit he hasn't been in long) and in fact, doesn't even live in Etobicoke Centre. Axel, on the other hand lives right in the heart of the riding, and has for some time, and thus has a vested interest in the community.
25 11 05 Keith
The conservitives are dreaming if they think they will ever take this seat. Bory had the 6th highest number of votes in the province and came in number 16th for margin of win in ont, he got like 16000 vote that higher then rock ever had.
10 06 05 A.S.
While middling in the pre-implosion ranks of PC-friendly seats, Etobicoke-Lakeshore emerged as the top 416 target for Harper's CPCs, and I can see the test-case logic; it's got both the High Tory Middle Etobians of the Kingsway *and* the Low ReformaTory Reagan Democrats S of the Gardiner/QEW. (It also had the best 416 PC result in 1993; but that was a Patrick Boyer vote more than a PC vote, so it doesn't quite count.) If the Harper Tories could crack these disparate-yet-complimentary demos, with the ever-tempting target of the ever-dependably wishy-washy Jean Augustine within firing range, they'd have it and, by extension, a lot else within Toronto in the bag--sadly, in 2004, it was not to be. But the test-case strategy bore itself out in the Liberal-over-Tory margins being roughly the same in the affluent N as in the workaday S (and perhaps affirming suspicions that CPC was nothing more than a reborn Reform Party). By losing its deposit even with the spectre of Jack Layton *and* Mayor Miller looming ever so near, the NDP presently appears to be an extinct cause in this once-competitive seat--though as S Etobicoke becomes demographically Toronto-ized, who knows what sort of ivory-billed woodpecker situation may be afoot in the long term. And as for the Greens; as their 2004 result proves, ah, the benefits a Polish name can bring hereabouts...
03 06 05 punditman
What I meant from my last posting was that people in Etobicoke are more Conservative than people in Toronto. Thus, I don't think they'd be adverse to voting in a Tory the way the rest of the Toronto megacity is. Capobianco is the better candidate of the two, and would have a better chance at making it in a Conservative cabinet than Augustine would in a Liberal cabinet. And Etobicoke wants powerful gov't representation more than anything else (Etobicoke Centre is more like that than here, but this riding still is like that nonetheless). So, anyways, I think Capobianco will win, I think it will be close due to skepticism about Harper. If Peter MacKay was leader, though, Capobianco would absolutely steamroll Augustine.
02 06 05 Aric H
According to this election nominations site I checked, Jean Augustine is the nominated candidate for the next election, so it looks like she is staying:
Since the Liberals still appear to be ahead of the Conservatives by a number of points in this region, and since the Liberals aren't going to lose the incumbency advantage either, I would say this seat will remain Liberal unless the Cons go up in this area by election time.
26 05 05 A.S.
Actually, Borys Gesundheit marks an interesting break from pattern for Etobicoke Centre; rather than the usual Gillespie/Wilson/Rock cabinet-table anchor, he's more the soft-lefty feely-goody multiculti community advocate--which, together with this being NDP no-go zone, helps explain his endorsement by Mayor Miller. Had Borys not stood in the way, though, there is little doubt as to whom this seat would have been perfect for, especially in how it would've assured the stately cabinet pattern continuing--Ken Dryden. Family home turf, y'know. Not that it mattered; fueled no doubt to the f'ed local Tory situation, Borys surpassed *all* of Allan Rock's winning mandates. And this in a jurisdiction which, municipally speaking, embodies Common Sense Conservatism like no place else in the 416--look, Stephen Harper lived here as a teenager. So on paper, EC should remain a prime CPC target; yet I suspect it, like the rest of the 416, is too far gone now. *Especially* post-Belinda.
11 05 05 punditman
I think this riding will go Conservative for these reasons:
1)The CPC says a high-profile city councillor is seeking nomination here. They haven't named names, but it will likely be Gloria Luby or Doug Holyday, both of which could win hands down if Jesus was the Liberal nominee. Both are personally popular and would massacre Borys (I can't spell his last name, and I won't even try).
2)Etobicoke, more than anything, wants government involvement, something they would have more of a chance of if they voted Conservative. Borys is a no-name backbencher who has slim-and-none chance of getting any cabinet job in a Liberal govenrment if they win. Again, the Conservative might be able to pull off getting a candidate who could be in the next cabinet.
3)The only reason Borys won by so much last time was because the CPC candidate was accused of running a corrupt campaign.
Throw in the fact that the NDP is a non-factor here, and this riding will go blue on election day.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This certainly has the demographics for a conservative win if they focused solely on fiscal issues and dropped their social conservatism, but as long as Stephen Harper remains leader of the Conservative Party, this riding will continue to stay liberal by large margins. His hardline conservatism has very little support in Toronto. Even though this riding went PC in the 1999 provincial election and the provincial conservatives probably have a good shot at taking it back in 2007 since John Tory is a moderate conservative unlike Harper. If Belinda Stronach becomes the next leader, then the Tories have a good shot at taking this riding.

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