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3:53 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
10:57 AM 08/05/2005
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Hull-Aylmer
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Bloc Québécois
Alain Charette
Green/Vert
Christian Doyle
Marxist-Leninist
Gabriel Girard-Bernier
NDP/NPD
Pierre Laliberté
Conservative/conservateur
Gilles Poirier
Libearl/libéral
Marcel Proulx

Député:
Marcel Proulx

2004 Résultats:
Marcel Proulx
20135
Alain Charette
15626
Pierre Laliberté
5709
Pierrette Bellefeuille
3963
Gail Walker
2561
Christian Legeais
98

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

19 01 06 Adrien Charlebois
I believe that the BQ will pull it off since last time the candidate finished 2nd but was very close. The Liberal incumbent hasn't been doing that well and voters are noticing by reading the local newspaper. The Conservative and Npd candidates are also stealing some votes from the liberal candidate Marcel proulx.
17 01 06 PIERRE
Normally , this is a very secure liberal seat.However , polls shows that the Outaouais region is very unsatisfied of the Martin government, more so than other regions.Altough the conservatives will take most of the votes that the liberals will lose,there is no way that the conservatives will gain enough votes to win this riding.This will be won by the bloc.
15 01 06 Bear and Ape
The CPC supporters are getting a little rosey-eyed with the new-found strength of the CPC in Quebec. The CPC is still not a powerhouse in Quebec and has become the repository for some of the disenfranchised Francophone Federalist voters who opted BQ in protest in 2004. Polls show the CPC gainign at BQ expense. Hull-Almyer will re-elect a Liberal with some of the BQ support going CPC. Look for CPC being strong in the Quebec City region and parts south of it, not Outaoais.
15 01 06 Vote NDP
A Tory victory? In a riding where they previously finished behind the NDP and only marginally ahead of the Green Party? That's not happening any time soon: Hull-Aylmer is a fairly left-wing riding (Greens, Bloc, and NDP all do fairly well, and a lot of left-leaning people also vote Liberal) with no appreciable Tory presence, and while I think it's possible and maybe even likely that both the Tories and the NDP will improve enough to narrowly hand this riding to *gasp* the Bloc, I can't see how a riding where everybody and their dog works for the feds could swing Tory before it swings NDP.
14 01 06 Anglo Quebecer
This has been a liberal riding for 100 years, but the liberal incumbent is a non-entity backbencher and the Bloc came within 5000 votes of ousting him in 2004. At the start of the campaign, it was expected that federalists would have to hold their noses and vote Liberal in order to keep out the Bloc - who in all probability will poll about as well as they did last election (Alain Charette is a capable and likeable separatist).
The big question now, given the unexpected rise in Conservative fortunes in Quebec, is whether the "tipping point" has arrived - where federalist voters feel it is strategically in their interest to vote Tory instead of Liberal in order to keep out the Bloc. I would argue that that point has already arrived in Quebec ridings where there is a viable high profile conservative candidate, such as in Pontiac and Louis St.Laurant. And it is quickly getting to that point in ridings where the conservative candidate is competent, if not well known, and/or the incumbant Liberal is uninspiring (both of which are the case in Hull-Aylmer).
Don't be surprised to see the Tories pick up about a dozen seats in La Belle Province, including Hull-Aylmer, IF they can keep up the momentum to election day.
13 01 06 Anglo-Quebecer
Ok, I admit this may be a bit of a reach but its not entirely impossible either.
The Liberal incumbant (Proulx) is the quintessiential backbench MP....quiet with no noticeable skills, policies or personality. He missed the last candidate's meeting and in general has been as invisible in this campaign as he has been throughout his wholly unremarkable 6 year tenure as MP (ironically taking over for the colourful and controversial Marcel Masse). The Liberals would normally hang on here as they have held this seat for 100 years, even through the Dief and Mulroney sweeps, but the incumbant is so entirely uninspiring (he is so boring that there is not even a whiff of scandal about him...remarkable for a Liberal in Quebec) that I think a major upset is possible.
The Bloc will get approximately as many votes as they did last time (15,000 or so). The Liberal vote will almost certainly be down (they won by 5000 last time). The Conservative vote will almost certainly rise due to upsurge in Quebec and the fielding of a credible centralist candidate this time around - instead of local gadfly Pierriette (the NDP again field Laliberte, a strong candidate who unfortunately has no chance of winning but who should keep his vote count).
Ordinarily this would add up to a Bloc victory as the Tories and Liberals split the main federalist vote (in fact any split of 60-40 or less in the federalist vote and this is what will happen). However...this is Quebec and Quebecers are savvy voters. IF they sense that Proulx is becoming/has become a lame duck, federalist voters, even die-hard Liberals, may suddenly flock to Poirier if he can show any sense of momentum in order to keep out the Bloc. It hasn't happened yet...but the tide is starting to turn and with Quebec's fabled fickleness this can quickly turn into a totally unexpected win for the Tories.
13 01 06 arni
Ce comté est maintenant plus assuré aux libéraux. Le BQ et le PC profiteront assez de l'effondrement libéral mais la situation profitera au BQ. Circonscription serrée.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
Hmmm, "outside the Montreal region" you say. With no Liberal hopes anywhere but the capital region and Montreal, and the Bloc looking to make federal Liberal a very poor career choice for smart local politicians, it may be part of their strategy to eradicate the Liberals in the "National Capital Region". Maybe even get *that* money split up. Who knows? So it seems entirely likely that the Bloc can win this, and I call it for them:
Federalists in this riding are as saavy as Gatineau obviously and all the same factors there apply here. The voters know they won't lose their goodies for voting Bloc, it just means more goodies wrapped in extra Canadian flags! (which even Duceppe says is OK now).
Another aspect of the saaviness is that the bureaucracy likes majority not minority government, which plays in the Liberals' favour. But only a bit.
The third aspect of the saaviness is that many people realize that only a federal electoral reform is going to ever give any alternative to Liberals for Quebec federalists. The number of potential Liberal Prime Ministers from Quebec is getting dangerously thin. There are Conservatives, NDPers and Greens who deserve to be elected and everyone in Quebec knows this now. So voting for some of them so close to the Hill will send another message: reform the federal voting system so that people in Quebec have choices...
These dynamics, plus a snowstorm that will not deter separatists but will deter older voters, should hand this to the Bloc. Look at the numbers.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Hmmm, "outside the Montreal region" you say. With no Liberal hopes anywhere but the capital region and Montreal, and the Bloc looking to make federal Liberal a very poor career choice for smart local politicians, it may be part of their strategy to eradicate the Liberals in the "National Capital Region". Maybe even get *that* money split up. Who knows? So it seems entirely likely that the Bloc can win this, and I call it for them:
Federalists in this riding are as savvy as Gatineau obviously and all the same factors there apply here. The voters know they won't lose their goodies for voting Bloc, it just means more goodies wrapped in extra Canadian flags! (which even Duceppe says is OK now).
Another aspect of the saaviness is that the bureaucracy likes majority not minority government, which plays in the Liberals' favour. But only a bit.
04 12 05
Victoire du Libéral Marcel Proulx. Ce comté à toujours voter Libéral même durant le temps de Brian Mulroney et ce avec des majorité semblable a celle de la dernière élection, donc ce comté va voter Libéral avec une majortié quasi identique.
20 06 05
This could actually be too close to call, since last time around the bloc got the highest numbers in the riding I have ever seen a 5000 vote difference is a close one for Hull-Aylmer, the NDP candidate last time also did a very well last time around getting over 5000 votes, and the Conservatives this time have an excellent candidate who is for same sex, and actually used to be with the NDP this is good for this urban riding. Yes Marcel Proulx COULD still win but he will feel the heat from all other parties like a Liberal in Hull-Aylmer has never felt before in its 100 year rule of the riding.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
Marcil Proulx is probably safe, and possibly the only Quebec Liberal to survive outside the Montreal region. He's going to have a bit of a fight on his hands unless Liberal fortunes change. Still we think he'll win in the end.
03 05 05 NDP Newbie
If Levesque could do it provincially in '76, Duceppe can do it in 2004, and by more than 2 votes. :D
06 05 05 M. Lunn
Outside of Montreal, this is probably the federalist strongest riding. However I believe the Parti Quebecois won this in the early 80s during their landslide so a Bloc win is possible here. It would be major embarassment to the liberals if the separtists won in a riding just across the river from Parliament Hill, but that just may happen.



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