Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Cardigan
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Lawrence MacAulay

2006 Result:
Lawrence MacAulay **
11542
Don Gillis
6923
Edith Perry
1535
Haida Arsenault-Antolick
533

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
20 years since PEI went 4-for-4 federal Liberal, and it's easy to forget how much of a surprise it was--and who'd have thought it'd stay that way. Blame the fact that by far the most viable opposition party remained the decimated Progressive Conservatives (who, on a province-by-province basis, got their best percentages in PEI in 1993, 1997, 2000--and still not enough to win seats); plus the fact that the Harper Conservatives are insufficiently Progressive. On the surface, Cardigan--Pat Binns country, remember--is where Tories might stake their strongest hopes; the PCs gave Lawrence MacAulay stiff ultra-marginal challenges in both '97 and '00--but now that PC is no more, and MacAulay's cabinet-target days are long gone, it's receded considerably from opposition radar. About the main thing that could threaten it right now is if there's an Islander temptation to counterpoint the Ghiz Jr. legislature federally...
07 06 06 binriso
156.34.212.113
Well lets see, provincial Liberals swamped the PC's, PEI has been swept by the Liberals 6 straight times and really none of the ridings were even close, last time it was 53-33 province wide for the Liberals. The Conservatives have almost no chance here. Although maybe they do if they get Pat Binns to run for them.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Whatever controversy Lawrence MacAulay may have run into at the national level, he is well liked locally and most Tories here are Red Tories so many are philosophically more like the Liberals than current Conservatives. When one considers the ridings are small enough that it is easy to keep in touch with one's local MP, it is pretty tough to knock off an incumbent in PEI as opposed to elsewhere where MPs are less visible.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. There might be some PEI ridings willing to go tory, but this is not one of them.



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