Update:
12:08 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:07 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Vancouver East
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Canadian Action
Bryce Bartholomew
NDP/NPD
Libby Davies
Green Party/Parti Vert
Christine Ellis
Liberal/libéral
David Carl Haggard
Conservatives/Conservateurs
Elizabeth M. Pagtakhan

Incumbent:
Libby Davies

2004 Result:
Libby Davies
23452
Shirley Chan
10768
Harvey Grigg
4153
Ron Plowright
2365
Marc Boyer
399
Gloria Anne Kieler
250
IND
Louis James Lesosky
147

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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14 01 06 A Vancouverite
This goes almost definitely to Davies. Driving through this riding briefly, I've seen 5 Conservative signs, 4 Davies signs, and 0 Liberal signs. However, Tory chances of winning here are very slim. What would be interesting is to see if Pagtakhan can surpass Haggard. Haggard started his campaign 3 weeks until election day, had large trucks parked in front of his campaign office, is in some controversy (Liberals allegedly paid him $80 000 to write a report, I think- correct me if I am wrong), is running a slow campaign, and has little signs up.
13 01 06 rockindude
With Libby Davies winning by such a large margin 18 months people who are soft Greens do not have to worry about splitting the vote here. Greens have done well in East Van provincially. Davies is a shoe in, lets help the Greens with a few more votes and $1.75 for each vote.
10 01 06 Whalleyite
Libby Davies will win this seat hands down without any question. Vancouver East is one of the safest NDP ridings in Canada. An NDP stronghold combined with the high profile Libby gives the NDP a lock on this seat. Dave Haggard is just another parachute candidate from the Liberals. NDP by a landslide in this riding.
23 12 05 Aric H
A couple of the recent posts predicting a Liberal win or a close NDP victory are very silly. This is the safest NDP seat in Canada. Just look at the 1993 results for this riding. 1993 was the worst election in history for the NDP - they only won 9 seats in Canada and lost official party status - yet in this riding they lost to the Liberals by only 1,600 votes. That means that at a time when the NDP are doing much better than in 1993 and when they have one of the highest-profile NDP MP's in the country who just won here in 2004 with 56% of the vote that the Liberals have no chance!
19 12 05 politics101
While I will probably vote for Dave Haggard I expect Libby to hold on an win fairly easily unless the NDP vote collapses in which case all bets are off.
Libby does a good job of looking after riding affairs which is very important to a riding with the eco-social make up of Mt. Pleasant
She has an excellent crew of volunteers to knock on doors and the party will put there resources here if they feel threatened.
A couple of weeks into the campaign and no one from the Liberals has called to ask for my help or support.
18 12 05 love, sydney
What should be another Libby walk now hints at a soft win, with comfort depending upon how well Dave Haggard unites the anti-Harper forces. A strong campaigner who is extremely likeable, the IWA horse can battle the Cantebury Ghost mano-a-mano on the hustings. It's been 30 years since the Grits won this riding, but if the Martin machine pulls out the right tricks and throws the right punches, along with Haggard's aggressive stomping through the middle class cut of Van East, and Libby offers her usual strolling campaign-for-the-poor pitch, this could be more interesting than expected.
Editor Correction: Liberal Anna Terrena last won Vancouver East in 1993.
16 12 05 Rob D
The Liberals have announced they are nominating Dave Haggard to contest this riding, after his close third place finish in New Westminster Coquitlam. No matter, as a washed up ex-union leader stands little better chance against Libby in this riding than any previous sacrificial lambs offered up by the Liberals.
15 12 05 JC
I know, many people think im rediculous for predicting Liberal here, But I would say if it does happen it'll be small. Dave Haggard is by far a much stronger candidate then Shirley Chan was. I wouldn't be surprised if Haggard siphons off some votes from the NDP here, being a former dipper himself. But all in all I do believe this would be a shock on election night if Haggard won.
13 12 05 MF
Of course Libby will win this. Even in increasingly gentrified Mount Pleasant and Commercial Drive, the professional middle class types who live there like Libby and Jack's stances on social issues.
12 12 05
Easy NDP win. If you go to this riding you'll see how left wing they are with the coffeeshops, thrift stores. Large Population of singles and low-income single parents and families which care about healthcare,education
11 12 05 quasar
In 2001 after the BC Liberal landslide, this was one of the two ridings provincially that went to the BC NDP. It consists of more low income constituents, so we'll see Libby re-elected again. Many people speculated that Shirley Chan, a federal Liberal star candidate, could take this seat, but Libby fried Chan last time.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
Chan was one of the 4 Vancouver area star candidates in 2004 and Libby made short work of her, getting more than 2.5 times the votes. What makes anyone think it'll be different this time (star candidate or not)?
06 06 05 hatman
This riding survived the NDP provincial crash in 2001 with not one, but two NDP ridings here. Libby Davies is popular, and with this riding being less affluent than most, people will vote for the party that cares the most about the poor: the NDP. Somehow the Liberals were able to win here in 1993, and I don’t know how that happened, but the NDP did crash federally. It may have had more to do with the popularity of the Liberals at the time. That cannot be said about the current Liberals, and therefore I can’t see this going for any other party than the NDP.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Davies is one of the more locally poplar MP's. She is Layton's personal friend, which does not hurt, and the NDP house leader. Davies is a longtime MP who will remain for a longtime. I dont think there's much the NDP can do to lose this riding if they wanted to. No one can take this, certainly not the Liberals.
04 05 05 Aric H
I believe Libby Davies won this seat by the largest margin of any NDP seat in Canada last year. Since then she has continued to have a high profile from being made NDP House Leader by Jack Layton and by being visible through projects such as her campaign to decriminalize prostitution at the Parliamentary Committee researching the issue.
03 05 05 PGW
This is the strongest NDP riding in Canada (56% of the vote in 2004). There is little doubt how Vancouver East will vote on election day.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This is a very left wing riding. Even during the 2001 provincial election when the NDP was wiped out, they still held the two provincial ridings within Vancouver East (Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Vancouver-Hastings). Libby Davies had the best showing in all of Canada for the NDP so this is probably the safest NDP riding in all of Canada. Even though it went liberal in 1993 (mostly to throw the Tories out rather than support the liberals), Libby Davies' personal popularity has helped her win with bigger majorities each time around. I have no doubt she will do even better come next election.
02 05 05 BrianJA
The NDP vote is way up and the Liberals(the only party concievable of winning here other than the NDP) vote is way down. Thus, there's not a soul alive that could unseat Libby in Van East this time around.
02 05 05 Benjamin Waterman
This is the safest NDP riding in the country. Even if the NDP faced a nightmarish meltdown, like in 1993, this would stay NDP. With the NDP at the highest levels in 20 years, this riding will continue to go NDP for years to come.



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