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Vancouver East

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:52 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:49 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Parti Marijuana Party:
Marc Boyer
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Shirley Chan
Libby Davies
Harvey Grigg
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Gloria Kieler
Louis Lesosky
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ron Plowright

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vancouver East (98.8%)
Libby Davies
Vancouver Kingsway (1.2%)
Sophia Leung

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,613 42.50%
12,446 33.88%
5,068 13.79%
1,229 3.35%
2,383 6.49%

Vancouver East
(172/191 polls, 66440/71791 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver Kingsway
(5/190 polls, 776/67302 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 pro activist
Email: [hidden]
Hi this is my second post and I had to write again because some other posters are implying that Ms Chan is homophobic. If people have lived here in this city for any period of time, they would know that Shirley Chan and Mayor Mike Harcourt proclaimed the first ever Gay Pride Day in 1981. Often Shirley accompanied Mike, around town to the various Gay Functions. She has loads of gay and tranny friends. Does this sound like Shirley is homophobic. My god how long did Libby live in a heterosexual relationship for. Well to be exact, it was 24 years with her late husband Bruce Eriksen. So according to my calculation while Shirley was visiting, learning about and supporting the gay community, Libby was I assume either in the closet while presenting to the world her heterosexual status in Society or perhaps the other extreme is she might not be Gay at all. However, since announcing in 2001 that she was now in a same sex relationship but not desiring to identify as Lesbian, I think this raises some concern for the GLBT communities. Whether Ms Davies has some internalized fear about being Gay, I think is open for debate and the proper place for this discussion should be in an electoral election. And since Ms Davies is a public figure, I think voters have a right to know all the facts. I also think Shirley Chan should be free to voice her opinion and challenge whether in fact, Libby might be internally troubled by her now homosexual status. Ask any sociologist and they will confirm that someone who is homosexual often still has difficulty accepting it. Whether Ms Davies has personal demons or issues to reflect on or consider I guess is a matter of personal preference for her. However, being Gay, Lesbian or Transsexual is not normally a choice issue. You either are or Not. And Ms Davies needs to realize she is angering many in the queer community with her stance of 'well I might be in a same sex relationship now but that doesn't mean I will be forever. Nor does it mean I'm a lesbian. For now it works for me and that is what matters'. Ms Davies should be embarrassed for even voicing this opinion. Its really sad that a supposed progressive women like her would digress to such a troubling position. Finally I need to pose this, is Ms Davies posturing on this issue not that far removed from the extreme factions in society who claim that homosexuality can be cured and that its an issue of choice around being homosexual. Ms Davies needs to set the record straight. To not do so is cheating voters in the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered communities.
23/06/04 Deeby
Email: a@b
The last time Vancouver East constituents voted in anger, the votes were split and Margeret Mitchell lost her seat to Anna Terrana, who disappeared into the Liberal backbench for the next 4 years.
Not this time. People remember and will return Libby Davies; probably with 50%+....
22/06/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
It's unclear what's going to happen to Dosanjh in Van. South (he'll probably win, but you never know), but it seems clear that "star" candidate Chan (like the other NDP turncoat Haggard in New West.) will be losing by a big margin. Her incoherent temper tantrum over Libby's partner and sexuality is not the behavior of someone on the way to Ottawa.
20/06/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
I cannot see Libby losing this one, not this time. This is my second post for my riding, no change, but an interesting observation. The liberals have become so unpopular that they SEEM to have lost support to the conservatives, who are having the best showing in 10 years. There are large amounts of tory signs on private property, compared to last election where I saw a grand total of 1, plus a few on public property, in the riding. Though this could be from many factors, I think it does not help the liberal cause which needs Van east to be a 2-way race for them to even beat the NDP. It all just makes the race a clear keeper for the NDP.
13/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Shirley Chan of the Liberals must be getting desperate here. Last week she apparently said that Libby Davies was anti-gay because Libby refered to her girlfriend as her partner instead of her spouse. It was the most ridiculous thing yet I have heard during the campaign. Libby is open about the fact that she lives with a woman, has been given an A+ ranking by gay rights groups, and supports all gay rights legislation and same sex marriage. Libby is a popular MP here and if she won when NDP support was lower in 2000 than it is now in 2004, she should have no problem getting relected this year with NDP support double what it was in the last election.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Not only will Libby Davis win but don't be too surprised if she wins by at least 50 % of the vote
11/06/04 pro activist
Email: [hidden]
Libby is in for the race of her life. Shirley Chan on June 10th had a salmon bbq at the Aboriginal friendship centre and over 600 guests attended. Notable endorsements were received by the President of United Native Nations George Holman and Everyone's Hero Elijah Harper. Elijah gave a rousing speech. Chief Leonard George was also present and drummed and spoke. Many other native leaders were present and endorsed Ms Chan. Libby has a fight on her hands as Shirley Chan knows how to campaign. Every night she is out door knocking. Already her campaign has 400 lawn signs out whereas in the last election Mason Loh only had 165 signs by the end of the campaign. Rumour has it Shirley has ordered even more signs. Shirley Chan is pro gay rights, aboriginal and sex trade worker rights. Many well known social activists are campaigning with Ms Chan. Its an interesting campaign as activists are working alongside Chinatown business leaders who also support Ms Chan. Libby does not have this race sewn up. Yes Libby will get the commercial drive vote. But Shirley will take Gastown, Chinatown, Hastings Sunrise, and probably Strathcona. The Downtown Eastside vote will determine the eventual winner. Many think Libby will sweep the Downtown Eastside however Shirley Chan is actively courting this community and has a few key organizers from the Downtown Eastside. A squeaker on the 28th, with an upset in the making. Shirley Chan by one hundred votes.
09/06/04 Ryan Thiessen
Email: [hidden]
I don't see how you can give Vancouver-East to the NDP, Shirley Chan of the Liberals is a much stronger candidate than the previous Liberal candidate and the Green Parts looks to make inroads into the traditional NDP support. Last election the margin was only 5%, this riding should be marked too close to call becaues it will likely be a very tight race.
03/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
It is certainly the NDP turf but I should underline that the Liberal candidate is of course the best that Martin could have got and her being parachuted into the riding did not create nearly as much controversy the neighboring Burnaby-Douglas or Vancouver-South. Given the fact that 26 % of the riding speaks Chinese as their mother tongue and the real number of Chinese Canadians is even higher it does give Mrs Chan an advantage, BUT the working class that largely dominates this riding would certainly give the edge to Libby Davies and so would the average household income of $48,184 ( the lowest in the province ) . Yet another advantage for Libby are the conservative policies of the current B.C. Liberal gov't as well as what is often described ( and yet not proven ) a lower voting turnout among the Chinese Canadians. Libby will win, but it won't be as easy as many people predict.
02/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
Traditional NDP riding, a national NDP leader focusing on urban issues, well known, popular incumbent -- tough to see how this riding is in any way competitive for the Liberals, even before their recent troubles. Easy NDP hold.
23/05/04 JK
Email: [hidden]
The provincial Liberal government's popularity has been declining lately. Recent polls have shown that the provincial NDP sre now leading the Campbell Liberals 43% to 39%.
If Libby could hang onto this seat during the end of a very unpopular NDP government, she will be able to easily win the riding this time around with NDP fortunes now on the upswing.
12/05/04 Susan Anderson Behn
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be a tight race. The Liberal candidate has a history of living/working in the riding, but that was years ago when Mike Harcourt was Mayor of Vancouver...before he became the leader/Premier as an NDP member. The Liberal candidate has no obvious association with the Liberals, and may well be confused by some who still think of her as being NDP...Although there is a significant ethnic vote inthe area, many of those who reside here are not yet able to vote. Business owners would be more likely to vote Liberal, but many do not live in the riding.
The riding residents have changed significantly in the past 5-7 years...it now is home to a significant number of urban professionals, and the division between the Downtown East Side and Yaletown is going to be a factor. House prices have jumped in Strathcona, so incoming people are in a totally different socio-economic catagory than the previous residents...The NDP have a head start...but need to appeal to the newer residents...and get the old NDP vote out.
08/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Dear JC...Appointed versus acclaimed is a distinction without a difference. The other candidates were "discouraged" from running...or were not approved to run at all...leading to the acclamation.
Why the Liberals choose to do this for Vancouver East is a true mystery. This of all years, it should be an NDP stronghold. Perhaps these shinnanagins will add an extra swipeful of icing to that cake.
06/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
It is clear in my opinion that Vancouver East will remain with the NDP. The NDP's numbers are up, so therefore I think all NDP incumbents will be re-elected. I think you will see over 50% of the vote here going to the NDP. Vancouver East is notorious for its social problems and the people there know that the NDP cares the most about social problems, as its part of their platform. Classical NDP riding, win for sure.
29/04/04 JC
Email: [hidden]
Shirley Chan was not appointed -- she was acclaimed. There were a couple of candidates who were interested in running (like Daniel Lee and Grace Wong) but they did not run when they found out that Shirley Chan was interested.
Libby Davies will be tough to beat, but Shirley is certainly the right candidate for the Liberal Party. She grew up in Van East, went to Britannia High Schoo, she successfully fought to save Chinatown years ago when threatened by having a highway come right down through Vancouver, she is the former Chair of VanCity Credit, former Chair of the UBC Board of Governors, and she was an extremely competent chief of staff to Mike Harcourt when he was the Mayor of Vancouver.
As the top public servant for Health Canada in BC, she knows everything there is to know about the Downtown Eastside, and the issues that this part of the riding faces.
Shirley Chan, and her background, provides progressive "street cred" for the Liberal Party in Van East. The NDP should take her very seriously.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
I was just down in Hades and no one was throwing snowballs, so Libby is back in.
Why would Martin make the moronic decion of appointing Shirly Chan to be a lamb at the slaughter here? Why would she agree? What is the deal she has been offered in her loss?
Though kudos to Martin for figuring out how to get all the NDP volunteers moblised to get Libby back - I figure there will be a halo effect in the lower mainland and you will see more NDP signs and leaflets since 1988.
05/04/04 Full name
Email: [hidden]
Libby 's reelection in her riding is almost a fait accompli. First, she is very popular and in touch with the residents of this area. She also has the rising fortunes of the NDP on her side, both provincially and federally. Furthermore, with the "appoinment" and parachuting of Ms. Chan ( a former NDP member, ironically?) into the riding by Mr. Martin's Libs, many people will see this as both undemocratic and cynical in an area that has a long history of grassroots democracy and activism, further bolstering Libby's support. I expect a larger margin of victory for her in this election than the last two. You go girl!
29/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
As mentioned before, Vancouver East has only gone to other parties besides the CCF/NDP twice in the last 75 years or so -- and only when there was a big dip in NDP support nationally (1974 and 1993). Since there's no evidence of this happening this election, Libby Davies should take this riding pretty easily.
28/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
This is my riding, so I might as well predict this one. Vancouver East is as close as you'll fing to a social-democratic stronghold in the country -- aside from north Winnipeg. Libby Davies is as well-known here as a politico can be, and she hammers away on the issues that disproportionately afflict the East Side: poverty, drug addiction, housing and homelessness. Is she everyone's cup of tea? No, but her views play well in the riding. Add in the fact that the NDP under Layton will make gains in all urban areas, and she will sustantially increase her plurality this time out.
26/03/04 Mark Phillipo
Email: [hidden]
Home of BCs two NDP MLAs, as well as the excellent Libby Davies, this is a safe seat for the party.
19/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
Libby Davies will take this again. Being elevated to NDP House Leader has helped her status nationally and with the NDP on the rise, I think she's a lock. Heck, she's smart, she's funny, she's British, why not?
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Much like Sven next door, Libby's got this riding down pat. Probably the poorest area of Vancouver, they will easily re-elect the NDP incumbant.
16/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Historically, since the 1930's, Vancouver East has been a working class riding which has been represented by the CCF/NDP.
Two exceptions to this rule were as follows:
1. 1974 - Art Lee - Liberal (57 vote margin);
2. 1993 - Anna Terrana - Liberal (2,000 vote margin);
During both of these Liberal victories, unpopular provincial NDP governments were in place.
During the 2000 election, the NDP polled 11.3 % and Libby Davies kept the seat.
At the present time, the federal NDP is polling between 20% and 27% in B.C. and as a such I believe that she will keep her seat with the Liberal placing in traditional second place.
11/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
With Jack Layton and the researgance of the NDP in B.C. I'd say Libby has this one in the bag. I had some hope that the liberals could put up a challenge, especially with the high polling after martin took over, but not after the sponsorship scandal....

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