Update:
4:39 PM 14/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:46 AM 02/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
NDP/NPD
Neal Gray
Libearl/libéral
Amarjit Grewal
Green/Vert
Kate Harrington
Conservative/conservateur
Mike Lake
Independent
Kyle McLeod
Communist
Naomi Rankin

Incumbent:
Hon. David Kilgour

2004 Result:
David Kilgour
17555
Tim Uppal
17421
Paul Reikie
3975
Michael Garfinkle
1911
Naomi Rankin
135

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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v
13 01 06 RC
I am a strong liberal but I believe a narrow to moderate conservative victory here is clear. Not only can Mr. Lake rely on traditional conservative voters in the riding (ie - caucasian voters in Beaumont), he will likely also obtain much of the ethnic vote. What prior submissions have failed to take into count is that there is much underlying division and rivalry within Millwood's ethnic groups. For example, large divisions within the Sikh community will not vote for a Sikh candidate (As was clear at David Kilgour's nomination contest where the majority of Sikh members voted for Mr. Kilgour as opposed to a Sikh nominee well known in his community, Many sikhs voted for Kilgour as opposed to Uppal in the last election). At the same time, rivarly between muslims and sikhs will ensure that the majority of muslims (who are very active politically in this riding: many were present at Mr. Kilgour's nomination, one member ran for the PC's in the provincial election) will vote for Mr. Lake.
12 01 06 Conservative Voter
First, Mike Lake is not a rural candidate he is urban. Second, Tim Uppal came close to winning the nomination and since we are headed to another minority government Uppal's supporters may just vote the other way or not show up at all.
As for the Sikhs not showing up due to weather is a load of huey. Ethnic groups in this riding are better organized and take their right to vote seriously where as most other Canadians do not. I have seen this more times than I can count and believe me it is impressive. It would be nice if more Canadians exercise the right to vote this election.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
"Uppal couldn't get elected so his endorsement is not really meaningful" . You're kidding, right?!? He lost by 134 votes, and probably swung a few thousand on ethnicity, and his endorsement "is not really meaningful"?
Sounds like propaganda. Internal party splits tend to kill candidates and a rural white guy nabbing a questionable nomination from a less rural Sikh is going to make a lot of difference. Combine that with bad weather on election day and you could see a lot of the old blue vote not coming out.
The idea that an aged Sikh would haul himself or herself through snowstorm conditions to go vote for Lake seems far fetched. The vote that Uppal got may stay home, much of it. That said, Liberal voters may stay home too due to Kilgour departing. The Kilgour-Martin split was actually devastating to the Liberals in Alberta, it leaves only Landslide Annie as the anchor.
09 01 06 Conservative Voter
Baghada Bob is right, Mike Lake is no Tim Uppal, in fact the only reason why so many Sikhs voted Conservative was because of Tim. The Conservative platform is not beneficial to ethnic groups in Canada as stated in the Sikh news online.
08 01 06 BC Tory
The reason that the Liberals won this riding on four successive occasions was because people were voting for Kilgour, not the Liberals. Were it not for the people voting for Kilgour, rather than for the party, Kilgour would have been long gone by now. Now, not only is Kilgour gone, it's not much of a secret what party he will vote for this election. So, because of this, much of the Kilgour vote will go Conservative this election.
07 01 06 Baghdad Bob
Brian Dell, you're right, Amerjit Grewal is not Kilgour. BUT, Mike Lake is no Tim Uppal. Uppal attracted thousands of Sikh votes that Lake won't get. LAke has been invisible and uninspiring. He concern will be getting the Con voter to come to the polls. This riding will stay Liberal.
28 12 05 Brian Dell
Follow Kilgour's career and you see that he has held on to this seat by taking a small c conservative tack. Amarjit Grewal is a totally obscure 60-something bus driver and it would be a stunner if Grewal could snag this riding when Kilgour's edge in 04 was just 132 votes.
24 12 05 Bear and Ape
With Liberals down in the polls in Alberta, even Kilgour would be hard pressed to win this riding. Should ANY conservtaives-who-vote-for-Kilgour switch back to their Tory roots would ensure a CPC victory.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
As much as I think it will be bad for Alberta to have even fewer or possible no members on the government benches, I think this will go Conservative this time around. David Kilgour got a lot of personal votes and still only won by 131 votes last time around, so I doubt if the Liberals can hold it; even David Kilgour doesn't think they will. This may go Liberal provincially, but lets remember Kevin Taft is a lot more popular than Paul Martin in Alberta, plus the right wing vote is also split as the Alberta Alliance got between 5-10% here.
16 12 05 Baghdad Bob
Kilgour has not endorsed any candidate. It is strange that the CPC always says there are no liberal votes here, just Kilgour voters. It's as if Lake is running away from his own theocon background. Lake has run a dismal campaign of invisibility.
Amarjit Grewal has powerful support in the ethnic community which is 40% of the eligible voters. He needs only 20% of the rest to win. 20% is below the provincial average for the Liberal vote in Alberta. This is a Liberal victory.
13 12 05 TC
Just reading the CTV news article in which Kilgour himself is endorsing two Conservative Candidates and campaigning against the Liberal party in Edmonton Millwoods Beaumont by telling people not to vote liberal, this is a disaster for the Liberal Party. David himself thinks this will easily go Conservative.
By the way anyone who thinks the Kilgour vote will go NDP does not know Alberta and needs to read his book Uneasy Patriots to find out why Albertans vote for him.
11 12 05 sure
Although it pains me to say it the Conservatives have this locked up, if anything some of that Kilgour Liberal vote will probably go to the NDP. The Liberal can't count on the Hair block vote the way Kilgour did :)
05 12 05 EE
It will be closer than people think... probably within a few thousands. Mike Lake might want to think about actually campaigning... this is Mill Woods not rural Alberta, buddy. I'm only kidding, but he has been low profile so far. With that attitude you can tell Mike Lake might be a less than stellar MP. Where are thou Tim Uppal...
01 12 05 Marcus
Shouldn't have Liberal predictions here at all. David Kilgour was re elected by the constituents because he was a former Progressive Conservative, is more right wing of the Liberal Party, opposed SSM, and is a trusted incumbent. Kilgour isn't running here again. That means that the constutient will revert back to their Conservative roots. Lake is a young and charismatic candidate. He will win here.
29 11 05 Matt
I predict that with David Kilgour out of the picture, this riding will be back in Conservative hands. David Kilgour has won this riding repeatedly since the late 70s, regardless of what party he belongs to. This seat was quite literally won by a hair in the last election.
25 11 05 when will this mike guy start working?
How lazy is this Mike Lake guy? He has been nominated since may, and his website claims he has doorknocked 2 days since then. Why hasn't he given brochures to everyone in the riding? He has had 6 months! If he is that lazy he is in trouble. Plus, people are forgetting one point. Tim Uppal wants Mike Lake to lose so he can run in Mill Woods the next election. He is not helping Mike Lake, aside from a handshake. And why should he...Mike only beat him due to questionable 'strategy' during the nomination campaign.
26 11 05 Inderjit Bains
Tim Uppal split the Punjabi community. Now those votes, 3,000 to 4,000 will be coming back to the Liberals. This riding will go Liberal.
IND
23 11 05 Alf
I don't get the reference to the "autism file". Lake has a son that has autism. Is that what you mean by file? Otherwise, autism is a provincial health responsibility and Lake has done nothing to advance the cause of treating autism in Alberta.
Uppal couldn't get elected so his endorsement is not really meaningful.
The real threat is from Gil Poitras running as an independent. He was extremely popular in Beaumont and has a respected base in Millwoods. Many Conservatives prefer him to be the MP over Mike Lake.
If Poitras runs he would win.
21 11 05 Rebel
Mike Lake looks to be a pretty attractive candidate to me...and his involvement on the autism file suggests that he is one of those Conservatives with a strong social conscience. He has received Uppal's endorsement and, I expect, will be elected in the riding if the writ is dropped soon.
31 10 05 Steve G
The Tories have given the Liberals a fighting chance here by inexplicably dumping Tom Uppal as their candidate. This riding is too close to call as far as I'm concerned, whereas it would have been a Tory slam dunk if Uppal had been chosen as the party's candidate once more. He would have held the traditional Tory base while taking in a large proportion of immigrant voters who are becoming a greater factor in both Edmonton and Calgary with each passing election. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Libs nominate a visible minority here and take the seat, but as of now this one is still a toss-up.
04 11 05 PFR
JVC clearly does not know what he is talking about. This was not a Liberal seat since 1979. In fact David Kilgour won this seat in the 1979, 1980, 1984 and 1988 elections as a Progressive Conservative. He then left the Tories to join the Liberals due to a disagreement over the GST. It was then that he was re-elected as a Liberal in the 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2004 elections. However, this has always been more of a David Kilgour seat than a Liberal seat. Love him or hate him he knew how to win and when he could he could win. As much as the Liberals want to twist themselfs into pretzels dening it the only reason that he has decided to retire is that he does not believe that he can be re-elected in the next federal election. He said it himself that he did not want to be thrown out on his ear. With the socially conservative and long time Kilgour supporters now shifting their support over to the Conservatives this will be the easiest and safest bet for a Tory pickup in the entire country. Look for the Tories to win this riding by a minimum of 5,000 votes.
02 10 05 hatman
With Kilgour out of the picture, this suburban Edmonton riding will be flipping blue once again. Back before he was a Liberal, Kilgour was winning this riding by 13,000 votes. Expect similar figures, or maybe a few thousand less, to take into consideration the transition.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Contrary to an earlier post, provincially the PCs won Leduc-Beaumont-Devon and Edmonton-Mill Creek which spill over into this riding, plus the combined PC/Alberta Alliance vote would have taken Edmonton-Ellerslie by 8 points so if this riding existed at a provincial level, the combined PC/Alberta Alliance vote would have been enough to take this riding. This riding has a large immigrant population and mainly went Liberal due to David Kilgour's personal popularity who was originally elected as a Progressive Conservative in 1979 and switched to the liberals in 1990 after voting against the GST and being kicked out of the party. Despite his popularity he barely won this riding so I expect the Conservatives will take it this time since he is not running again. Also the provincial liberals always do better than their federal counterparts and likewise the federal Conservatives usually do better than the provincial PCs as many centrist may not ideologically agree with the Conservatives, but vote for them since they see the liberals as anti-Alberta, anti-West. Anne McLellan will likely be the only liberal elected in Alberta after the next election and even that is not a guarantee.
13 07 05 Bear and Ape
"Ethnic, urban and cosmopolitan", eh? Just like Edmonton East, Edmonton-Strathcona, and (parts of) Edmonton-Spruce Grove (not to mention several of Calgary ridings). People voted for Kilgour(whether he be PC or Grit), not the Liberals. Could be a liberal hold but we think the smart money is on the Torys.
13 07 05 JVC
Liberals will hold. This riding has been Liberal since 1979. Kilgour had his voted deivided by Tim Uppal, a strong ethnic candidate. The ethnic vote will go to the Liberals in large numbers and will not be split this time.
Harper has not rejected 2 tier helth care and that is worrying seniors. Seniors will vote in large numbers with the Liberals.
Grewal is killing the CPC and taking Harper down with him. The feeling in the riding is that the CPC is hanging Grewal out and not defending him.
02 07 05 Dave
This riding is ethnic, urban and cosmopolitan. The surprisingly weak Conservative, Mike Lane,will not do well. Lane can get no help from Harper who also has his own leadership problems. Liberals are surging nationally and in this riding. Easy hold for Liberals.
19 06 05 ktr
I see this riding going Liberal. In the provincial election last fall, both MLA's elected were Liberal. The conservative's best shot was with Tim Uppal, but the party shafted him hard in the nomination, and a no name with no political experience won. The guy is only interested in gay marriage, and is your typical one issue candidate. With the support of the ethnic community and those who feel healthcare is the biggest issue for the riding, the Liberal candidate will win by about 2000 votes.
28 05 05 punditman
This is a naturally conservative riding. It has been held by David Kilgour, but remember, Kilgour was first elected here as a Conservative. When he switched to the Liberals (for no better reason than to thumb his nose at the Tories for giving him the heave-ho), people stuck with him because they liked him. Last election, he barely won. The Liberals have some Nigerian guy running for them who isn't all that popular. Throw in that CPC support in Alberta runs at about 68% right now, and it looks like an easy Conservative win.
07 05 05 GM
People here voted for Kilgour, not for the Liberal party.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Like the 20 or so year stretch from Stanfield to Mulroney, the tories will win all the ridings in the province, including this one. It does not matter who runs for the liberals here, this one is simple, conservative win. Kilgour might even run for the tories, if so, that'd be a slam dunk.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
In all likelihood, with David Kilgour gone, this will go Conservative. But if it weren't for the adscandal and if other issues overshadow it, the liberals still might have a slight chance of winning since this area has a large ethnic community, is an urban riding, went mostly liberal provincially, and Edmonton is not as Conservative as elsewhere in Alberta.
26 04 05 JC
This is an easy one to start, Kilgour isn't running again and I doubt the Liberals are going to find a good candidate to replace him. So whoever wins the Conservative Nomination will win this riding.
26 04 05 Travis
I don't even need to know who the candidate is to predict this riding is going blue on eleciton night. I do believe if Tim Uppal is the Conservative candidate it will not be a very close race. David Kilgour is not running for re-election, and one poll put the Conservative party support in Alberta around 70%.



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