Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:36 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:36 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Michael Garfinkle
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
David Kilgour
Naomi Rankin
Paul Reikie
Tim Uppal

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Southeast (92.2%)
Hon. David Kilgour
Edmonton-Strathcona (0.01%)
Rahim Jaffer
Elk Island (0.1%)
Ken Epp
Wetaskiwin (7.6%)
Dale Johnston

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,793 49.69%
16,300 40.92%
2,170 5.45%
1,194 3.00%
375 0.94%

Edmonton Southeast
(143/165 polls, 59909/67204 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(5/261 polls, 26/88948 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Elk Island
(2/222 polls, 84/78682 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(15/237 polls, 4951/75763 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
21/06/04 Confused
Email: [hidden]
Not sure how to predict this riding, in the recent edmonton examiner article the candides were asked 3 questions. why are you running, why vote for you and what are the issues inthe riding.
Kilgour had a good reply , the comunist candidate replyed however Uppal did not reply to the papers questions.
Not answering showed a lack of respect for the voters in the riding and will not help Uppals cause.
20/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I see this not as a Liberal but a David Kilgour seat. This will be close but in the end Kilgour will be the sole Liberal MP from Alberta.
12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Due to the collapse of the Liberals in the Polls, I am pulling my Liberal prediction here. While I'm not ready to call it for the tories, this is very close. Last time we saw a united Conservative party, it took all alberta seats for about 20 years straight
12/06/04 Stevo
The federal PCs garnered 5% of the vote here in 2000, and one can expect that vote of this total will be transfered over to the Liberals this time, since the new united Conservative party is less likely to win over these former PC diehards in Alberta, as compared to the fence-sitting PC voters in Ontario. Kilgour should be re-elected with about as large a margin as he did in 2000.
11/06/04 Dan Lamden
Email: danlamden@hotmail.com
Edmonton Sun put out a column claiming that this is the safest Liberal seat in Canada. After reading it, they have good points. Kilgour gained rural areas in redistribution, and he has been a strong advocate of Ag issues, so that would turn "never vote Liberal" farmers into well Liberal votes just because of that. As for the other areas, its not a matter of voting for the Liberals, its voting against the Conservatives and questions regarding social values here. If theres not a party in which you want to vote for it becomes strategic, or about local candidate... and Kilgour would get the edge.
10/06/04 OMM
Email: [hidden]
How this could be changed to a "Too Close To Call" is beyond me. Kilgour knows this riding better than anyone. People here like him and vote for him, sometimes despite the fact he is a liberal. Last time he took Uppal with over 50% and I don't see it changing. Kilgour is going to be going back to Ottawa on June 28, many have writen him off before and have consistantly been proven wrong.
06/06/04 John Thomas
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure why this is still listed as a Liberal riding. It should at least be too close too call, if not outright conservative. While I know David Kilgour is respected (hell, I voted for him before), his time has come. After 25 years, Kilgour was skating on thin ice as it was. Add to that all of the money his party has wasted and the fact that he missed a few crucial votes and what we've got is the perfect political storm. Both Uppal and Kilgour have been to my door and i've gotta tell ya, Uppal presents himself way better. Kilgour looks tired and he's never at your door for more than about 15 seconds before he rushes off. Uppal stayed at my door for a good 2 minutes answering questions... it probably made the difference as to how i'm voting. Another interesting thing: A neighbour of mine woke up to a Kilgour sign on her lawn one morning. She didn't ask for it so she phoned to have it taken away. She says Kilgour himself phoned her later that day and pretty well begged her to keep the sign up because he was losing the race and his team was getting really demoralized. Sounds to me like the words of a desperate man.
My prediction? Uppal by at least 2000 votes.
04/06/04 David Haitel
Email: [hidden]
Despite Having held the seat since 1979, David Kilgour, though personally far more popular than his party, has angered many constituents about his failure to vote against same-sex marriage. Conservative candidate Tim Uppal on the other hand, is a good speaker and has a solid grasp on policy. Last campaign he did not have the time to properly mobilize his campaign due to a snap election being called. This time the tables have turned. It will not be a shoo-in but Tim Uppal should come out on top in a squeaker.
28/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Tim Uppal from what I can tell is a very good member of the community. As for Mr. Uppal not being white, and that being a problem. Give me a break. The people of Alberta and this riding, look for the quality of candidate and not for the colour of the skin. I am glad to say this riding on June 28 will elect Tim Uppal.
25/05/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Oh my god..... I cannot believe somebody honestly things the fact that Uppal is not white will hurt his chances.
I have worked on a minority candidates campaign in Alberta and it was NEVER an issue. Albertans get unfairly demonized as being hicks. Honestly folks in Alberta, while more conservative than most Canadians, are not THAT racist.
Uppal's heritage can only help him. The Millwoods part of the riding has a HUGE indo-canadian community. Many of those voters will vote on race, taking votes directly from Kilgour.
Western anger at the Liberals will help the Conservatives sweep the entire province....
Kilgour's day in the sun is over. Time to head into retirement with that big pension in hand.
25/05/04 Steve B
Email: [hidden]
I won't go as far and say the Tory will pick this seat up. But Albertans do like MPs they feel will stand up for Alberta.
Last time Kilgour lucked out by being the S.Am junior minister when our boys got kidnapped, then freed by Marxist rebels. He got rewarded.
This time. He didn't show up for the gay marriage vote. If he won't show up to vote. I doubt Kilgour will get re-elected. Also, it's not the 80s anymore. Being a Sikh won't hurt the Tory.
24/05/04 RetroRyan
I'm really torn on this seat, which I think is the Liberal's best shot of winning a seat in Edmonton. But I think the moderator should change this to "Too Close To Call" Here's why:
1) Three of the seven Alberta Liberal MLAs have their provincial ridings here, which is an indication of deeper support for the Liberals.
2) On the other hand, the addition of the town of Beaumont makes this riding more favourable to the Conservatives.
3) The redistributed results show strong support at the federal level for both the Conservatives and the Liberals.
4) Liberal candidate David Kilgour is an ex-PC MP, which makes him a little more attractive to the voters of Alberta. Besides, Kilgour looks the part of the stereotypical Albertan.
5) Tim Uppal may be a good vote-getter for the conservatives, but as a previous poster mentioned, he has to convince the rural voters of Beaumont to come on side with him.
6) The Conservatives must win ALL of their previous CA and PC voters in order to win this seat. Either that, or they must have a strong "Get Out the Vote Strategy" here.
The Conservatives in Edmonton should not ignore this riding and merely throw all their resources at Anne McLellan. I'll try to revise my prediction as more trends come in through the campaign.
24/05/04 Chris Young
Email: cyoung@ualberta.ca
David Kilgour may be in for a surprise this time. The Conservatives will be running a stronger campaign, and Kilgour is now without a cabinet post. Also, the boundary changes have made this a whole new ballgame. I predict a Tory victory, but it will be a tough battle.
23/05/04 Cheryl
Email: cherylwhite222@yahoo.ca
Yes sir this ALberta, and might I remind you that we currently have two very respectable LIBERAL MPs among us! Mr. Kilgour and his office staff are tremendously helpful and after the media coverage he got last year on a certain incident of his, I don't think you can say he doesn't share the views of his constituents. He knows where his party lies and he knows where he himself and his constituents lie and that shows great charcter my friend
23/05/04 Rob Johnson
Email: albertatory@hotmail.com
Kilgour's time in office is coming to a close... the cards are just stacked against him. He's been booted from cabinet by Paul Martin, reducing Alberta's cabinet representation to just one. He's been in exile from Edmonton, only coming home for big events and this election... he lives in Rockcliffe (Ottawa). He has tried to become the farmer's hero given that his riding now takes in a rural area, but he's just been censured by the House of Commons Agriculture Committee for his constant ranting about the meat packers on television and radio. His desperation is quite apparent given that he's reduced himself to having a picture of Paul Martin on his lawn signs (Anne McLellan has just a maple leaf). And most importantly, he is facing off against a more mature and much more organized Tim Uppal than when they squared off against each other four years ago.
19/05/04 CC
Email: [hidden]
A very close race to call but c'mon this is Alberta the right-wing province. I say a Conservative win by about 500 votes.
08/05/04 MC
Mr. Kilgour will hold this seat for the Liberals. He has been a good Member of Parliament and won by a good margin (for a Liberal in Alberta) in the last election. I believe that people will vote more for the person than the party in this riding.
12/04/04 Anand Sharma
Email: anand47@yahoo.com
Now that Tim Uppal has been elected, I think this is too close to call. Had it been a caucasian CPC candidate than I would have put this in the CPC column. The unfortunate reality is the new boundaries open the ridings up to rural Alberta. While many rural albertans are progressive, others would not vote for a visible minority male (or any females period). This is not to advance a stereotype, but rather discuss the voting behavior of a minority of people in the riding. That being said, this minority will have an impact. Beaumont has many professionals (teachers, nurses, etc) as well, which should help elevate Kilgour's vote, however a stronger NDP candidate in Paul Reikie should increase the split. Reikie is a eco-activist and popular university student, should be able to crack 5%. A this point a very small lead for Kilgour, but on E-day it will come down to pulling the vote.
07/04/04 W. McBeath
Email: wmcbeath@telusplanet.net
This riding has been the most secure Liberal seat in Alberta. However, this is no longer the case. In the last election, the CA had very little time to actually campaign (19 days), was running agaisnt a popular Cabinet Minister, and did not include the municipality of Beaumont. This time, the CPC Candidate is in place early, and is already out and actively working. As well, the Liberal incumbent is no longer a popular cabinet Minister. Additionally, Mr. Kilgour has to live down his decision not to be in the House of Commons during the vote on Same Sex Marriage - which has angered a number of constituents (both those that oppose Same Sex Marriage, and those who are angry that they did not have a voice in this important vote). Finally, the addition of Beaumont (which the CA won in the 2000 election) shifts the results more to the CPC's favour. Although this will be another close race, I believe that Tim Uppal and the Conservative Party will be able to succeed this time.
01/04/04 Goldy S.
Email: Singh4Life@hotmail.com
Alberta will be a clean sweep for the Conservatives. There are three main reasons this riding will swing Tory: 1) Stephen Harper is the new leader of the Conservative Party. 2)Alberta used to be CA country, now this riding doesn't have to worry about the P.C vote. 3) About 8% of this new riding was part of Wetaskiwin. That riding voted over 70% Conservative last election.
29/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I don't think there are any safe Liberal ridings in Alberta. I hope there is not a Conservative sweep but I wouldn't be surprised if there is one.
25/03/04 Blake Robert
Email: [hidden]
Mr. Kilgour may be personally popular in the riding of Edmonton Southeast... but this isn't Edmonton Southeast anymore. With the addition of the rural area south of the city of Edmonton (and, of course, the town of Beaumont) Kilgour is in line for a severe whomping. Albertans are tired of Liberals and even those who may have held their noses and voted for Liberals are going to have a second thought this time around.
The only way any Liberals will get elected is if the Conservative is has a questionable and shady past which is well-known or becomes public knowledge. There may be one of those in Alberta, but it certainly won't be in Edmonton-Beaumont.
19/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
At this time we really have no opinion on whether or not this will stay Liberal or go Conservative. Kilgour's recent comments (which banished him from cabinet) will scare off left-leaning Liberals to the NDP, while Liberal follies could send votes to the Conservatives. Despite this Kilgour seems to be a survivor, winning against the odds. He is far more likely to keep his seat than the deputy Prime Minister one riding over. Wait and see for this one...
17/03/04 Craig
The most marginal seat in Alberta, but the Conservatives will still oust David Kilgour with the sponsorship scandal, the united right and the NDP resurgence all playing a role. The 50% of the votes in 2000 will erode as a result and the Conservatives will take this en route to a clean sweep of Alberta. Predicted results: Conservative 44%, Liberal 38%, NDP 15%, others 3%.
17/03/04 N.C.
Email: nairn@canada.com
This seat is likely to remain with David Kilgour until he retires, based on his consistent personal popularity. McLellan may be at risk this time around (as ever), but Kilgour will likely survive.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Mr.Kilgour was a former PCer who crossed the floor in the early 90's. He won his riding with such strength that looking at the re-distributed results, even a joint PC-CA candidate would have lost. Easy win for the Liberals... well, easy by alberta liberal standards.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster