12:06 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:53 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Calgary West
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Rob Anders
Canadian Action
Tim Cayzer
Teale Phelps Bondaroff
Jennifer Pollock
Danielle Roberts
André Vachon

Rob Anders

2004 Result:
Rob Anders
Justin Thompson
Danielle Roberts
Tim Patterson
James S. Kohut
André Vachon

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 MH
Unfortunately I think Rob Anders will win again. There hasn't been much of a noticeable campaign so far, and in our area of this riding (we live in Calgary west, but our area used to be part of Calgary centre, so is more "inner city" than many parts of the riding), signs from the Greens, Liberals,
and NDP actually outnumber Anders signs. However, there are very few signs overall - far fewer than in Jim Prentice's riding which is just across Crowchild trail. Jennifer Pollock seems an OK candidate, but hasn't been campaigning very aggressively as far as I can tell. Teale Phelps Bondaroff is probably a very bright guy, but is very young and inexperienced and will be hard pressed to come third in this riding, since Danielle RObertson managed that last time for the greens.
Alas, no big changes here. I would expect low voter turnout, and Anders to win by a comfortable margin over Pollock, with third place too close to call. However I urge all residents to vote against Anders who is a lousy MP and a poor representative of this riding.
27 12 05 Travis Chase
I would like to point out that Rob Anders margin of victory has increased every election.
The only time Calgary West went Liberal was Justin Edwards in 1940. The only time the provincial Calgary West which overlaps went to the provincial Liberals was in 1989 to Danny Dalla-Longa. Federally Calgary West has always had a high number of Liberal Votes, the trend shows itself provincially except for when Peter Lougheed held the provincial riding. The fact is there have always been a high number of Liberal supporters, this is due to Calgary West being a trendy older area near the city centre.
However do not under estimate this Conservative strong hold this was the seat of former Conservative Prime Minister Richard B. Bennett he was elected here five times. The only other left leaning candidate ever elected was Joseph Shaw in 1921 for the Labour Party
It should be pointed out that provincially or federally no left leaning candidate has lasted more then one term, while members from right leaning parties tend to have long stints in public office.
17 12 05 M B
Calgary West... One of the most educated ridings in the country... Highest cell phone rates per capita.
I -HATE- Rob Anders. Everyone here -HATES- Rob Anders, but he's able to 'luck out' in riding nominations (e.g., in 2004, won the riding with < 50% of the total votes cast, because the plurality of voters who selected the 3rd place candidate, didn't put down a second or third choice). In fact, if you attend those nomiation meetings, they don't truly reflect the population of Calgary West - the hair colour is a sea of white hair tinged dark blue...
That said, even though Rob won with ~10,000 votes last time (the smallest Conservative margin in Alberta), there's no way that this result will change.
20 11 05 Lone Wolf
Anders is one of those politicians that help create and sustain the image, sterotype if you will, of Albertans, and Calgarians, as being 'red necks' and arch Conservatives. This notion troubles me. There are progressive voices even in downtown Calgary or rural Alberta, although not nearly as many needed to break through and elect someone other than a Conservative; mind you, the election of the Liberal troika from Calgary in last the Provincial election suggests the possiblity of change. Even so, there are some good Conservative MPs from this city. Anders is not one of them. Pitty he is my MP. What is truly odd is that almost everyone I speak with agree that Anders has no business in the House of Commons, that he should be replaced, and that an individual more mature and reasoned, less marginalized for his suspect views, should speak for a community that is affluent, well educated and peopled by good citizens. Yes, I predict an Anders victory. Perhaps at one time, before sponsorship, the right name-brand 'star' candidate, either in the context of the Tory nomination process or the general election, the margin here might be cut. But not now.
16 07 05 hatman
Rob Anders is one of the worse MP's you can have. Yet, despite his being the only vote against Nelson Mandela's honourary citizenship- he was able to trounce his other opponents last year. Well, without that fresh in the memories of the voters, he should be able to win again. Liberals haven't won here since the riding was created in 1976.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
Rednecks like Anders are popular in places like this. If he were in any other party, he'd lose by wide margins, but this is a party vote, folks. No question about it, Calgary, Conservative, Congratulations mr MP.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Rob Anders is one of the worse MPs, but despite his personal views being too extreme for most people in this affluent, but educated riding, people usually vote for party as opposed to person so he will be re-elected. The biggest challenge will be for Harper to get him to shut up during the election since everytime he opens his mouth, he just re-enforces in other parts of the country that the Conservatives are too extreme to govern.

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