Update:
5:01 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:48 PM 10/01/2006
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Green/Vert
Rick Barsky
Christian Heritage
Marcel Bourassa
Libearl/libéral
Myron Luczka
Conservative/conservateur
Carol Skelton
NDP/NPD
Nettie Wiebe

Incumbent:
Carol Skelton

2004 Result:
Carol Skelton
11875
Dennis Gruending
9597
Myron Luczka
4171
Rick Barsky
841

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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11 01 06
I think it is way to soon to say who will we this seat. People have to realize that this is diffrent election hear than out east. Changing polling numbers have nothing to do with what is happening in saskatchewan. Conservative are worried about this seat and Chris axworthy,s next door. Why else would they trying to get the Chirstian Hert. to drop out of the race.
09 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
Skelton will win here. The CPAC show on this riding demonstrated her strength in the rural areas of the riding. Saskatoon will split in the usual way and the Skelton will make gains elsewhere. While Wiebe is a local, I just don't understand why the NDP moves its losers from riding to riding. As if the voters don't know?
06 01 06 M. Lunn
Since the NDP is making few gains in Saskatchewan, I just don't think they can overcome an 8% gap. They will likely take most of the Saskatoon polls, but lose badly in the rural parts. Despite the NDP's long tradition here, we seem to be seeing Saskatchewan much what we are seeing in the Southern US. Many traditional CCF voters are migrating to the CPC despite the fact they have little in common just as many traditional Democrats are migrating to the Republicans in the South. It beats me why this is happening since I don't see the Tories as being a party for the working man when you consider the National Citizen's Coalition which Stephen Harper was president of was created solely to stop medicare, but this perception does exist in both rural Saskatchewan and rural BC.
28 12 05 Derek G.
An NDP win by 4,000 - 5,000? Come on. The NDP is not going to win this riding. Will it be close? Yes, but the Federal NDP are not the same party as they used to be. The federal party has lost its traditional roots in rural Saskatchewan, and is placing its roots in major urban areas. Nettie ran in Saskatoon-Humboldt last election and lost even though Jim Pankiw was able to gain 7,000 votes. Now not all of those would have went to Brad Trost, but if she was a strong candidate she should have been able to win. Will there be a major difference now that she is running in her own riding? I am not sure, but it will be a battle given the majority of rural seats in Provincial politics are held by the Saskatchewan Party who are polling over 50%. This will have some affect on the campaign. Nettie may have been standing up for farmers, but the Federal NDP have shifted in my mind too far for alot of farmers who would support Nettie to do so. I have not seen anything besides the signs from the USSU stating students pay tuition and vote. Now the U of S is in Saskatoon-Humboldt, unless students live in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar I have a feeling they will not be going to an Elections Canada office to get a special ballot to vote. There will not be more of a student vote, youth will turn out at about 25% again or even lower. Carol Skelton is a future Cabinet Minister, and is viewed as one of the hardest working MPs on the Hill. As of right now it is too close to call, but I would expect a Conservative win by around 1,000 votes.
26 12 05 love, sydney
I wouldn't move it too close, I believe Wiebe is out front now and will knock Skelton out of her seat by 4,000-5,000 votes. NDP was more unpopular in Sask at the time of the last vote, this largely rural riding has a solid history, federally and provincially, of being independent minded and backing CCFers and NDPers at the cost of tory incumbents. The grits will play the spoiler here.
21 12 05 Wood-eye
This one should definitely be moved to TCTC. This will be a hard fought race between Skelton and Wiebe, two worthy candidates. I am going with Wiebe due to the fact that she is running in her home riding where the NDP has a lot of support. With her rural/faith-based roots she will also pull some of the rural vote. This combined with a low-profile liberal running and a lack of the so called 'strategic voting' from last election haunting the NDP, Wiebe will sneak a win. Definitely one to watch on election night.
20 12 05 MWG
Better move this in too close to call. This is a definite priority for the NDP in Saskatchewan. Nettie went head to head with the other former NFU president Wayne Easter- Lib MP from PEI and James Bezan - conservative regarding Liberals renounced safety net and ethanol announcement. Nettie came out on top and took Easter to task. The farmers in Nettie's community know that she has stood up and spoke for them for the last 15 years. Also, with the students back in school and the push for the student vote at U of S and with the NDP message a vote for the NDP elects an New Democrat to get results for people will resonate with voters. More student vote, liberal vote decrease and going to NDP and farm /cons vote going to Nettie will see a very slim (less than 500) vote win for Wiebe. However, better throw this one into too close to call.
13 12 05 MDF+
Well, Steve, I was responding to a particular point that 1st choice had argued - a point that had no merit.
As to your point, I have heard nothing to suggest that Carol Skelton has been a particularly effective constituency MP. She certainly has limited profile. Of course, with the Conservative band of bumblers, limited profile isn't necessarily a bad thing.
It is certainly still a race. But Nettie is a stronger NDP candidate than Dennis was.
sure
Carol Skelton is one of the best MP's Saskatoon has ever had, bar none. Nettie Weibe is her main rival, but even her brother-in-law, Dennis Gruending could not unseat Skelton. Gruending lives in Ottawa, I believe, yet still comes back every once in a while to run for the NDP, saying he is a Saskatchewan boy. Nettie Weibe ran for the NDP leadership provincially, and when she lost, failed to run as an average MLA. She lost in Saskatoon-Humboldt with a serious Independent (Pankiw) to beat up on, and she will lose again trying to take on Skelton. Weibe may be a darling to Jack Layton, but she is considered even too far to the left for my working class NDP friends. On the plus side, Skelton is definite cabinet material.
12 12 05 Steve G
I don't understand how MDF can comment on this riding without even considering Carol Skelton's very strong performance as an MP and the significant increase in her margin of victory in 2004 as compared to 2000. The trends continue to favour Skelton.
05 12 05 schnits
The NDP are clearly going to push with this riding. Nettie is from the region, and she is a strong choice. She has had a documentary about her. She has a strong agricultural past as well. Last election, she lost by only 417 votes. This riding clearly depends on which candidate can pull the most voters.
05 12 05 Bear and Ape
Though we feel that Skelton is the definite front runner, we also feel that it is a little presumptuous to claim it a certain Tory win. Skelton is an excellent MP and has solid support, especially in the rural areas, yet she only won by a little over 2K votes. One would expect a larger margin of victory. The NDP were suffering from anger over the provincial NDP's budget in 2004, no longer an issue, good for a few votes. We have a long campaign ahead of us and alot can change. If there is even a modest shift int he polls against the CPC, Skelton could be in trouble. Till then we think she'll win, probablly with a reduced margin.
01 12 05 MDF+
First Choice seems intent on making a last gasp.
Nettie Wiebe ran in Humboldt in 2004 because the previous MP and three time candidate in Rosetown - Biggar was running again.
Despite First Choice's second guessing, few will remember that she ran elsewhere in 2004. Indeed, few will know. And even fewer will care.
10 08 05 1st Choice
The only reason Ms. Wiebe is running in SRB is because it is her second choice after getting beat across town. She may live in the riding, but it wasn't her choice to represent her own community in 2004 - we remember!!! If we aren't her first choice, she sure won't be ours.
09 07 05 Wilf Day
Last time's NDP candidate Dennis Gruending was competent, but sat in the House for only one year after a 1999 by-election win, and lost three general election campaigns. Nettie Wiebe has to be a stronger candidate. And Dennis only lost by 2,278 votes.
05 08 05 Facts
Carol Skelton is untouchable. She is consistently awarded the 'hardest-working MP' honours by the Hill Times newspaper. She is the only Saskatchewan MP with perfect attendance and is among the top 20 MPs for attendance in the whole nation. She has introduced 16 times as many pieces of legislation than the average MP. Her margin of victory increased more than any MP in the country from 2000 to 2004. She won every poll outside of the city and a good majority in the city. Let's stick to the facts, not baseless opinions.
05 07 05 Travis
Bear and Ape is very correct that it was very much a three race, but Bear and Ape leave out Jim Pankiw who received around 7,000 votes. A good size of that 7,000 in my mind would have been likely Brad Trost supporters. So even with a independent conservative candidate taking 7,000 votes possibly away from the Conservative candidate the NDP star candidate still fails to win the seat. In order to beat a future Conservative Cabinet Minister, the NDP needed to nominate a strong candidate with a winning record but they have failed to do so. This will not be a very close race in my mind.
Now to comment on Mark R the poll numbers which I am not sure which ones you refer to show that as of right now the numbers are about the same as they were on June 28. So to say that the numbers are disastrous makes no sense. Will the Centennial help the NDP? I have to say probably not. It might help remind voters that not to long ago the NDP under Roy Romanow and Dwain Lingenfelter the province was running surplus budgets but now under Lorne Calvert Saskatchewan is a ``have`` province yet having to dip into the savings in order to call a deficit budget a ``surplus`` budget. A popular individual? I am sorry I just don’t buy the idea that a candidate who is popular in a riding where a independent conservative candidate takes 7,000 votes away from the Conservative party candidate would not have been elected. Could I be wrong on her popularity changing in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar? Possibly, but I have a feeling not much will change with Nettie Wiebe`s political record by running in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Stephen Harper has leadership issues? I do very much disagree with that statement considering I believe Stephen Harper can be sold in both urban and rural Canada, where Jack Layton has shown he is not sellable to rural voters.
22 06 05 Mark R.
The Conservatives poll numbers are disastrous, coupled with excitement surrounding the centennial celebrations in Sask will help the NDP. A popular individual will be running for the NDP this time. The NDP always focusses its' resources on certain ridings - this will be one of them. The conservatives have no place to go but down in the great Province of Saskatchewan. Harper has serious leadership issues. While Jack Layton is more popular in urban vs rural Canada - his advisors would not ignore S-R-B riding as they know it holds promise.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
To comment on Travis' mention that Wiebe was unable to win in Saskatoon-Humboldt, if you look at the results from that race, you can see a clear 3 way race with the 3 main parties all within 400 votes of one another. It seems clear that Paul Martin's last minute "NDP voters beware of Harper because he is big and scary and will do evil things to our health care and what not" message actually frightened enough voters so that Wiebe lost to the Conservatives (talk about irony). New election, new race in a new riding for Wiebe and she is up against a popular, competent MP. Rural part of the riding will vote for Skelton but the Saskatoon part of the riding will split mostly NDP and Conservative (the Liberals didn't do so well here and we can't see them doing any better). We feel there could be a race is Conservatives continue to slip in the opinion polls but for now Skelton seems has it. Bottom line, to close to call untill an election is actually called, alot can happen over the summer.
02 06 05 Travis
Carol Skelton will be re-elected. Everybody knows that this race is going to be between Nettie Wiebe and Carol Skelton. Nettie Wiebe last election ran in Saskatoon-Humboldt and somehow was unable to win the seat even though the Conservative candidate had the vote split between a former Canadian Alliance MP. The NDP needed to run a strong candidate in this riding to defeat a future Conservative Cabinet Minister, and I personally believe they failed to do so. Look for Carol Skelton to be re-elected.
12 05 05 bkj
The NDP have Weibe running this time. She is form the area and is very popular. The liberal vote will be done this time and this will benefit the NDP. The NDP will be pooling all its Saskatoon resources into this riding. It will very close this time.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Carol Skelton will likely be re-elected since she is a compotent MP and this riding didn't split the left wing vote like some other Saskatchewan ridings that allowed the Conservatives to come up the middle. The NDP got 36%, Conservatives 44%, while liberals only 14% so assuming Carol Skelton holds all the votes she received last time (which is probably pretty likely), then it is very difficult to defeat someone with 44%. Nevertheless, this riding did go NDP in 1997 and would have gone NDP in 2000 had the present boundaries been used, so an NDP upset is possible, but highly unlikely. They will likely win the majority of Saskatoon polls, while the Conservatives will rack up huge numbers in the rural portions while have a strong second place showing in the urban portions making a conservative win likely, but not guaranteed.



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