Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:25 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:38 PM 6/26/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Rick Barsky
Dennis Gruending
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Myron Luczka
Carol Skelton

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (94.6%)
Carol Skelton
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin (5.4%)
Maurice Vellacott

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,186 41.74%
11,009 41.08%
3,097 11.56%
1,488 5.55%
18 0.07%

(141/146 polls, 46831/48311 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(12/167 polls, 2655/53733 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
Wow - what a tough riding to call.
Although I confess to rooting for the NDP, this one is tough. Carol is one fantastic person and MP - the only Conservative in Canada I would vote for. However, strategic voters scared of a Conservative government will throw their support to the NDP in this riding.
And let's face it, Saskatchewan voters are too savvy to confuse provincial and federal NDP - the disastrous provincial NDP of recent is a very small factor. And as for the argument that Jack Layton is Saskatchewan unfriendly - well, he's a thousand times better for NDP chances than Alexa whats-her-face was.
Very very very close, but I have to say an NDP squeaker.
24/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
This seat is too colse to call and will be one to watch on election night. As I said before the winner will win by less than 300 votes. The reason that I am giving this to the NDP is that they have a better ground game than the conservatives. NDP in a squeeker
20/06/04 WM
Email: [hidden]
This is a close two-way race between Gruending and Skelton. Assuming that some Liberal voters will vote strategically against the Conservatives, Gruending will win the seat that should have been his last time.
12/06/04 J Soanes
Email: jsoanes@sasktel.net
The NDP won this riding in a by-election just before the 2000 election where they lost by a tiny margin. I've read that redistribution favored the NDP and they certainly haven't gotten any weaker lately. Not only that but it seems to me the weakest Liberal candidate in Saskatoon is in this riding so that will not split much of the non-Conservative vote. I think the NDP will win this one in a close race.
12/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Carol Skelton is a favourite among Stephen Harper and he's not going to allow her be to defeated by the NDP. Currently, she sits on the front bench in Parliament when even Diane Ablonczy sits in row 2.
11/06/04 Kip Luce
Email: [hidden]
This is a two way race between a couple of candidates that represent parties that have no chance to form a majority government. Conservatives that want to argue the point, take a look at the numbers: since both parties will be shut out of Quebec to form a majority govt they would need 155 of 233 seats, a whopping 66.5% of the non-Quebec seats. With the Consatives polling 30-35% and the NDP polling 15-20%, we're looking at either another Liberal majority, or some kind of minority government.
Ignoring the candidates totally, I think this riding will go to the NDP for two reasons: 1. They put up big gains on the praries in the latest poll and the Conservatives took a nose dive.
2. Undecided and soft voters are thinking about a minority government, and a Liberal-NDP govt. is far more plausible that a Conservatives-Bloc one.
In this riding, look for Gruending to pick up a lot of Liberal votes as well as a lot of votes on the left by people who didn't bother to vote last time. Why? Oddly enough, in this riding he is the only candidate with a chance to go to Ottawa and NOT sit with the opposition.
Gruending will take the seat and probably not sit that far away from Chris Axworthy after all.
11/06/04 HAS
Email: [hidden]
Skelton will win and here are the reasons why. (1) Gruending's win was in a by-election when the turn-out was about half the norm for this area. Remember the Dippers always get their vote out. (2) Gruending lost in the 2000 election with a normal turn-out of voters and don't tell me about a snow storm. Remember the Dippers always get their vote out. (3) In 2000 the Libs had a very weak candidate which helped the NDP, and this time there is a stronger Liberal which will hurt the NDP. (4) Last but not least Carol Skelton has proven to be a very hard working MP in Ottawa and is well respected by all who have got to know her in the past four years.
11/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
This is one of several mixed urban/rural ridings in Saskatchewwan (8 in all) that are perennially tightly fought. However, given some recent national polls (and their Sask/Man regionals) I think momentum is now in favour of the Conservatives in Saskatchewan...regional polling for both provinces is showing them in the mid 40s and higher than that in Saskatchewan. NDP polling varies wildly (as you expect with a regional subsample) but recently is now showing the NDP at less than even 2000 levels. I appreciate more views from the ground (the comment from one poster about the 2000 snowstorm was remarkably interesting!), but I think the incumbant Conservative, Carol Skelton, will be re-elected.
01/06/04 keith
Easy win NDp. Last time turn out really hurt ndp. There was a large blizzard that hit around 5:00 last election. People in the rural areas had all ready voted. The urban part of the riding (which is strong ndp territory) had not yet voted. The ndp will make sure to get its vote out this time.
25/05/04 JCM
Email: [hidden]
Dennis Gruending will win big in this odd constituency. Despite the strong cleavage between urban and rural, which has lead to relatively close races in the recent past, I believe there will be a strong turnout in the Saskatoon portion of the constituency, which will give Dennis a reasonably comfortable victory here.
01/05/04 PFR
This riding will go conservative. Carol Skelton despite being only a first term MP rose to be the deputy leader of the Canadian Alliance. She is a future cabinet minister and the residents of her riding know that.
28/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
OK. Yes, this will be a tough seat. The margin of vicotry for whoever wins will be in the hundreds, not the thousands. However, why was the vote so close in 2000 and what does that tell us about this seat? In 2000 the Liberals ran a very effective campaign where they told people that if they didn't vote Liberal then the Alliance would win. What this meant in S-R-B was that soft Liberal voters went to the Libs rather than vote NDP and risk the seat. (This is based on personal experience from door-knocking in the riding)
This time out those soft liberal voters will be more inclined to vote NDP as they can see what happens when they vote Lib (The CA won the seat). With the gains in the polls that the NDP has had over 2000 this looks like just enough to squeze the NDP over the top.
And to the person that talked about the "influential hill times" I don't think the word influential means what you think it means, maybe 1 in 100 people have even HEARD of it.
In 2000, Mr. Gruending used all his political capital, including name recognition and being the incumbent and LOST. Mrs. Skelton won as a virtual unknown. With the name recognition, respected record and the 'incumbancy factor' this time around, she should win by more than any redistribution margin working against her.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We'd like to point out that redistribution DOES help the NDP (albeit slightly) when using last elections numbers. If you turn your head slightly to the left and then scroll down you will see that the NDp would have won this riding under the new boundaries. As for some other posters comments that NDP support doesn't last, that's often true. However as of now the Liberals are a sinking ship and in an area like Saskatoon, the support will go to the NDP. This riding has elected NDP MPs before and with their current good fortune it looks like they'll do it again.
Those who are predicting that the redistribution will benefit the NDP have not done their homework. The 2000 results are evenly split between the CA and NDP.
Carol Skelton's popularity and the concentration of the conservative vote should win this one for her.
03/04/04 Craig
Her hard work as MP should get Carol Skelton re-elected narrowly, but it certainly won't be pretty. The NDP will be looking for extra votes from the Liberals, but Skelton has cabinet potential in the unlikely case of a Conservative government, so she should be re-elected. Predicted results: Conservative 47%, NDP 43%, Liberal 6%, others 4%.
03/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
Of all the Saskatoon ridings, I believe this one to be the easiest to predict and I'm not that certain of it. If the Conservatives are being predicted to win Blackstrap (I'd give them about a 50% a chance at this point), the NDP should be predicted to win this one. The rural area of the riding has been reduced and the urban part of the riding expanded into traditionally strong NDP territory. The NDP candidate is well-known and there is a goodly number of "Red" (Orchardites) Tories in the rural part of the riding that I expect to vote NDP this time.
01/04/04 Greg
Email: [hidden]
The Alliance/CPC incumbant won against the same NDP candidate by under 70 votes last time. several rural polls which strongly voted alliance last time have been redisticted out of the riding and the strongest NDP polls from the Waneskewin riding in 2000 have been brought in. Colour this one orange.
Since Carol Skelton has been recognized as the hardest working Opposition MP by the influential Hill Times, it is unlikely that she will be defeated in the next election. She is very popular locally and obviously recognized nationally too.
30/03/04 Trent
Email: i_am_saskatchewan@hotmail.com
I gotta agree with the dippers here. Part of this riding was one of only like 9 places the NDP won in 1993. (funny that the guy who won here then is now running as a liberal in another riding). The liberals aren't a factor here at all and the provincial NDP have a strangle hold on the Urban part of the riding. Carol winning last time was a fluke. Hopefully, Denis will get to spend more then a year in the House this time.
30/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The NDP go up in the polls all the time, they get that support from the Liberals. We all know that it never last. The NDP provincially have run three staright deficit budgets, the people of Saskatchewan truly want a responsible government, that won't come form the NDP or Liberals, but the Conservative party. People know that, and it will show when this seat goes Conservative.
28/03/04 Steve L
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure what the deal is with all the NDP predictions in this riding, but I have no problem at all calling this a CP victory. Skelton has actually shown herself to be a reasonably good MP, and conservative support is riding high. S-R-B will be an easy hold.
27/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
A united right means that numbers can be put together. Harper has shown that he can reach out and bring in old PC members, who consider themselves red tories. This will be a Conservative seat.
26/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Ah, Ghoris I very much share your pain. I've tried to point these things out to CPC supporters in other ridings but they just can't grasp the concept. But ah well, they will just have to be dissapointed on election. I'll try and make it as simple as I can:
-The results from the last election in this riding were very close.
-The NDP is up almost 10% nationally since the last election.
-The CPC is down just over 10% nationally from the combined CA/PC in 2000.
-In Saskatchewan the NDP are up from the 2000 election, whereas the CPC is way down.
This riding is going NDP. In a walk. It's not rocket science...
24/03/04 Ghoris
When are CPC supporters finally going to figure out that you can't just add the Alliance and Conservative votes from 2000 together to predict how the CPC will do this time out? First, the CPC is polling well below the combined numbers of the Alliance and PCs. Second, in a riding like this one, anyone who was still voting PC in 2000 did so because they DID NOT WANT TO VOTE ALLIANCE. The CPC (especially with Harper as leader) will get few if any of these old PC votes.
The NDP would have won this seat on the new boundaries. Add to that the fact that the NDP's polling numbers are double what they got in 2000, with a leader with no seat in the House of Commons. This riding will go orange. End of story.
23/03/04 Sandy
Email: [hidden]
The joint CA and PC vote would have shown a Conservative win in 2000. With Harper being a Westerner, Saskatchewan will likely go Conservative. And to whoever sent those NDP submissions, it is obvious that they are the same person. In this riding, Conservative 48%, NDP 43%, Liberal 9%
18/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Thanks to the recent re-distribution, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is now a notional NDP seat, and with the Federal NDP polling the sort of numbers they did in the good 'ol days (whilst the CA/CPC having collapsed since 2000), the NDP are clear favourites.
Add to that the fact that Dennis Gruending is running again, it looks like Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar will be an NDP gain (or, to be pedantic, an NDP hold)
17/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
If you look at the transportation of votes, under the new riding boundaries, this seat would have gone NDP. The NDP is running a strong candidate, and has doubled its national support, wheras the CPC is way down in Sask since 2000. This alone makes Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar an easy NDP win.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
take a look at the re-distributed results, it tells the story.
This riding is mostly the old Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, with some strong CA areas cut out. If you only take that chunk of the riding, the NDP would have won. Re-distributed results would have elected an NDP MP in 2000, and I beleive it will elect an NDP MP in 2004.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
The transposition of 2000 votes to the 2004 boundaries (electionscanada.ca) shows the NDP would have won this on the new boundaries. Dennis Greunding the former NDP MP is running again. With NDP fortunes rising in Saskatchewan, and the Conservatives waning, Conservative MP Carol Skelton doesn't stand a chance.
Email: [hidden]
With former MP Dennis Gruending running for the NDP, this should be an easy win.

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