12:03 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:41 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Saint Boniface
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Mathieu Allard
Ken Cooper
Christian Heritage
Jane MacDiarmid
Marc Payette
Raymond Simard

Hon. Raymond Simard

2004 Result:
Raymond Simard
Ken Cooper
Mathieu Allard
Daniel Backé
Jeannine Moquin-Perry
Chris Buors
Gérard Guay

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 M.T.
Although I really don't expect the Liberals to lose Saint Boniface, it is almost certain that the race will be closer than last time. The Conservatives are much better known, and seen as more moderate than last time, and their new found popularity in Quebec (where both Dumont and Cherest have all but endorsed them) may have an impact on French speaking voters in the rest of the country. The NDP and Green votes will both be up slightly as well. In a situation where the Tory and NDP vote were both higher than expected, vote splitting on the left might lead to a Conservative victory here. This is still only in the shocker category, but with talk turning to a Tory majority, that is just the type of shock we might see. Liberal hold for now, but anything is possible.
07 01 06 ACM
St. Boniface isn't really all that French anymore. Judging from the sign war, the ever expanding subdivisions on the south end are giving more support to Cooper than they did last time. I would predict an increase in the Conservative vote, possibly resulting in something around a 42%-36% win for Simard.
08 01 06 Kiesman
This is as safe of a riding as they come for the Liberals in the West. This riding has only gone Tory in HUGE Conservative victories in 1984 and 1988 when the Conservatives pulled in 200 seats nationally. Harper's campaign is far from accomplishing this. In 1978, the Tories did take this riding, but it went back in 1979, when it was one of two ridings west of Ontario that went Liberal. With 20% of this riding being Francophone and 12% being immigrants (although some constituents count as both) the Liberals not only have a solid historic foothold on this riding, but a demographic one as well. These are the exact same candidates for the Tories and NDP who lost to Simard last time around, so no one should expect major vote changes if the all of the same candidates are running. Cooper has a good financial background but doesn't speak French, which automatically cuts him off from 20% of voters in this riding! Simard as well has a financial background but has also been a gaff free Member of Parliament with a perfect voting record in the House of Commons. His stance against gay marriage will likely maintain his already solid francophone and religious support. Historically, this is the strongest Liberal seat in Western Canada and it will take a major liberal national melt down to change this. Simard will get another trip back to Ottawa, winning by 4000 votes.
28 11 05 Patrick
Simard is a very weak MP, but I think he's going to win again because the Tories doesn't have any chance in St. Boniface. I'm a Liberal and would prefer a stronger candidate than Simard. I miss Ron Duhamel, who worked very hard for the riding and who represented well the French community and the interests of all the other communities. But in St. Boniface, the tradition is liberal, and Simard will benefit again from it, despite his weak record as an MP.
02 07 05 Mathias
This is a francophone riding and Liberals always win Francophone ridings outside of Quebec. Simard is actually becoming a stronger name in St. Boniface than he is given credit for as he has won twice already by reasonably high margins. The Conservatives nationally seem to be hurt more by things like the Grewal scandal and so forth than the Liberals currently seem to be hurt by the sponsorship scandal and knowing that I can't see their being enough anger at the Conservatives to prevent Simard from winning here again.
17 05 05 Tory Insider
You could paint a lawn chair red and St. Boniface will vote for it. Simard is a weak MP, but will win because he speaks French. Cooper has all the credentials and talent, but that is not how people vote in that riding.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Saint Boniface has a large Francophone community which will likely vote liberal while the Southern portion is centre-right meaning they won't go NDP, but are likely uncomfortable with more hardline right wing positions taken by the Conservatives, which is why the Southdale portion will go PC provincially but still vote liberal federally as will the rest of the riding. Despite the liberal decline, their margin of victory is too large to overcome not to mention the Sponsorship Scandal has done less damage to the liberals in Manitoba than in some of the other provinces.

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