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Saint Boniface
Saint-Boniface

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:55 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:30 PM 14/03/2004



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Mathieu Allard
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Daniel Backé
Parti Marijuana Party:
Chris Buors
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Ken Cooper
Communist:
Gérard Guay
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Jeannine Moquin-Perry
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Raymond Simard

Population 2001
populations
81,239
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
60236

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saint Boniface (100.0%)
Raymond Simard

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
19,886 52.10%
8,852 23.19%
4,963 13.00%
4,467 11.70%
OTHERS
0 0.00%

Saint Boniface
(170/170 polls, 60236/60236 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
19886
8852
4963
4467
OTHER
0



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20/06/04 HB
Email: [hidden]
This will go Liberal again. Stephen Harper's stunt on the new bridge connecting Saint-Boniface to downtown Winnipeg was badly received by many. His weak endorsement of Bilingualism has most francophones and many anglophones here quite concerned. The anger directed against the Liberals that the media is reporting from Quebec and Ontario does not seem to be as much of a factor in Manitoba.
20/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
To correct myself it is Ray not Rick Simard and for the one who mentioned Leo Duguay. He was only in one term as he was soundly defeated by Ronald Duhamel in 1988.
15/06/04 Gilles
Email: yiknob@yahoo.com
I live in St.Boniface and it is pretty obvious that Raymond Simard is going to win. Like it was mentioned Ken Cooper is spending lots of time and money, billboards ect... but I don't think you can underestimate the DEEP spite for the Conservatives in this riding. I have surprisingly seen many more NDP and Green party signs than I thought. I think Raymond Simard will take it but not with as much support as he though, the NDP will pick up more votes then expected in this ridding and yes even Ken Cooper will get more votes than expected but not enough to win.
11/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I'm doing use the by-election results as my guide here. The people of this riding had a chance to smack the Liberals like what happened in Windsor West, Perth-Wellington etc. Instead, Rick Simard won this handily and while the percentage will likely be lower this time he won't have too much trouble retaing this seat.
02/06/04 HABSFAN
Email: [hidden]
Much of the Liberal confidence in this riding is in the French block-voting. However, the reaction that I have had in talking to people in the riding is that even if the French community votes en masse for Mr. Simard, the remainder of this riding is perfectly capable of outvoting them. For the first time in a long time, those of us on the right see a glimmer of hope that the Liberals could fall. That, combined with the scandals, double-speak, and broken promises give reason for people to get to the polls. Ken Cooper and his team are working his tail off in this campaign, and the CPC rally with Mr. Harper was an incredible spark for all who attended (and for those who have only heard about it!!). Those ingredients could mix together to give this riding a real shock come election day.
28/05/04 James A. Best
Email: [hidden]
I spent my first 25 years in St. Boniface, and found it to be a near even mix of small L's and small C's. Although the riding has been Liberal of late (Thorfinn: You're forgetting the two terms of Leo Duguay (PC) during the Mulroney era), this had more to do with Ron Duhamel than people's political leanings. Mr. Duhamel was an exceptional MP. Not as much for his accomplishments in Ottawa, but for the attention he lavished on his riding. The would always take the time to come out to community events, regardless of size. If more MPs modelled themselves after him, there would be a lot less political apathy in our country. I'm sure he's very sorely missed.
25/05/04 Reid
Email: [hidden]
I live in Saint-Boniface, and it's as Liberal as they come in Manitoba. The riding will be closer because of the absence of Duhamel, but it's still a Liberal win.
25/05/04 J.E
Email: [hidden]
Unless the "Team Martin" Liberal campaign turns into a repeat of Kim Campbell I don't think the Liberals will lose this riding. Ray Simard is a weak MP, and no doubt the people of St. Boniface wish that they had someone of the quality of Ron Duhamel to represent them, but even with Simards questionable abilites this riding is a pretty safe bet, as the Francophone community always comes out strong for the Liberal Party making this seat a safe shade of red.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
This is the safest Liberal seat in Manitoba. If they lose this one, they'll be shut out entirely in the Keystone Province. Despite drops in popularity and disgust with the Adscam, I see no reason why the people of St. Boniface will not continue to vote Liberal this time around.
04/05/04 Thorfinn
Email:
I didn't know that tories smoked crack - how else to explain the predictions of a Conservative victory in St. Boniface? The last time this riding went for a conservative was the by-election in '78 that elected Jack Hare, who promptly lost the seat in the general election a few months later. There is no conceivable way this seat is going to go conservative, and if the Liberals lose it - highly, highly unlikely -- it would more likely be to the NDP, which does get people elected here at the provincial level.
19/04/04 Jeff Niederhoffer
Email: [hidden]
Take it from a resident of St. Boniface and someone who saw Ken Cooper in action during the nomination contest - Ken Cooper will win St. Boniface because he is an indefatigible campaigner, and because he is driven in the best sense of the word. On top of that, Cooper has strong ties throughout the constituency, and has what is shaping up to be the best campaign organization in St. Boniface. An energetic candidate like Cooper is the perfect antidote to the tired Liberal machine personified by Raymond Simard.
And that brings us to another reason why Cooper will win: Ray Simard. The sad truth for the Libs in St. Boniface is that Simard really has done nothing to distinguish himself. Aside from the physicial presence of his campaign office, his newsletter and his periodic photo ops with select community groups, he has not been visible in the constituency. St. Boniface loved Ron Duhamel, but Simard is no Duhamel. He has done nothing to cement the loyalties of voters in St. Boniface, and he doesn't have the presence in Parliament to effectively advocate for the constituency. If you actually talk to voters in the area, you'll learn very quickly that Simard's re-election is by no means a sure thing. In fact, Simard is in serious trouble. He rode on Liberal coat-tails in 2000, but, with no end in sight for the downward spiral in national Liberal fortunes, Simard this time around will have nobody to rely on but himself.
14/04/04 HABSFAN
Email: [hidden]
When this riding went Tory in the past, the Francophone community did not change their votes--they just did not vote at all. Often that is the indicator of frustration with the current situation. Duhamel was a good MP, that point is conceded. But, Simard is a weaker candidate by far. With a strong CPC candidate in Ken Cooper running combined with a high level of anger/disillusionment toward the Liberal Party, this riding is going to be closer than the Liberals want it to be. The overconfidence shown by those who are choosing the Liberal landslide in St. B is typical of a party that feels it is "The Natural Governing Party of Canada". We will see come election day.
09/04/04 SellerstheMammoth
Email:
There is speculation within the CPC camp that Raymond Simard is a lightweight. In the 2002 byelection, the combined CA and PC vote would have bested Raymond. On April 3, the CPC nominated Ken Cooper as the candidate - former chair of the Winnipeg Stock Exchange, former CEO of one of a Manitoba Trust Company. He has the backing of powerful business executives, the backing of former PC premier Gary Filmon, former PC provincial cabinet ministers Shirley Rendeer and David Newman. In other words, we have a heavyweight for the CPC in this riding.
There is a sense of change in the air in this riding - an analysis of the 2000 eleciton results shows that if 20% of the Liberal vote breaks 12% to the CPC, and 8% to the NDP, and the combined CA+PC vote holds, then the CPC has the riding. What used to be the safest Liberal seat in Manitoba is no longer a slam dunk for the Liberals.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
1-The Liberals are doing well in the polls in Manitoba
2-The Liberals won this riding with a majority
3-Most "red tories" are expected to break towards the Liberals
easy win, no question about it.
31/03/04 Jacob
Email:
How do you say Red Dog Riding en Francais?
26/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
With its strong Liberal history and francophone population, I would say this is even safer than Reg Alcock's riding. Afterall, Alcock was nobody prior to Martin's upsurping the throne. St. Boniface produced much more outstanding MPs (such as Ron Duhremel) before.
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
With the exception of Reg Alcock's riding, this is probably the safest Liberal seat in Manitoba.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email:
St. Boniface has gone Liberal in every election since 1925 with the exception of 1958 and 1984 (years that saw massive Tory sweeps). Since nothing like that appears in the works this time, this seat will return Liberal incumbent Simard by a healthy margin.


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