12:56 PM 27/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:39 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Bill Blaikie
Tanja Hutter
Tanya Parks
Christian Heritage
Robert Scott
Linda West

Hon. Bill Blaikie

2004 Result:
Bill Blaikie
Bryan McLeod
Tanya Parks
Elijah Gair
Robert Scott
Gavin Whittaker
Paul Sidon

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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26 12 05 M. Lunn
For those predicting a Tory win, lets get realistic. The Tories tend to be quite weak in urban ridings so the only ones they might win in Winnipeg are the two ridings they currently hold, which are more suburban than urban. Bill Blaikie survived the 1993 disaster and is liked by people across the political spectrum, so there is no reason to believe he won't win in a landslide this time around. As far as I am concerned, Bill Blaikie, can keep this riding as long as he wants.
25 12 05 James C
This riding could be alot closer than most people think. The conservatives have a much much stronger candidate this time out, who has been Door knocking for the last year. The liberals are sure to lose two to three thousand votes to the conservatives. It will be close and you can't count Linda west out.
23 12 05 Aric H
The only time when Blaikie came close to losing this riding was in 1993 when he won by only 350 votes or so and that was the worst NDP election in history. In every other election he has won by comfortable margins. With the NDP in decent shape in this election and with the media reguarly pointing out that he is now the longest-serving MP in Parliament, (eg. "the Dean of the House") Blaikie should have no trouble winning again. As the Deputy Leader of the NDP he is also one of the highest-profile MP's in the Party after Layton, Broadbent & Davies.
22 12 05 Jeff Niederhoffer
I know it looks like an uphill climb, but Linda West should not be counted out, even in a seemingly 'safe' NDP riding as Elmwood-Transcona. She has good name recognition, and she has been campaigning non-stop for about a year. In terms of the 'lawn-sign wars', West has more election signs out than any other Conservative (= Progressive Conservative + Reform + Alliance) who has run against Blaikie in the generation or so he has held office.
07 12 05 Andrew M
I live in this riding, and just to clarify, it is in the northeast part of Winnipeg. Bill Blaikie has held this seat since the year I was born, and is the longest current serving member of Parliament. This riding is not, as mentioned, socially conservative in the least. You can usually spot the winner in any election in this riding by looking around the neighbourhood. Just look for the name on the orange sign.
24 06 05 Mathias
Yep, Bill Blaikie will win this one again. Its a riding dominated by the old school of the NDP, working class folks with NDP fiscal values but whom are conservative on social issues. I don't think Jack Layton could take this riding, but Blaikie is very much in touch with the people of his own riding and could win this seat with any party.
29 05 05 A.S.
Incredible to consider that now with the party's Sask shutout, the only territory that has been continuously federally NDP since 1993 is Blaikie's Trashcona and Svend Siksay's Burnaby--and Blaikie's got seniority and stability to his advantage. Now, maybe he'll show some Manitoban or even Northern Ontarioan coattails...
18 05 05 Agent 204
Blaikie is a big part of the reason why this riding has stayed solid orange, but not the only one. Even in the 1988 provincial election where the NDP was decimated, Elmwood and Concordia stayed NDP.
08 05 05 PB
By the way, M. Lunn, Elmwood-Transcona is in the EAST side of Winnipeg, not the North...still, that said, Bill does have credibility among non-New Democrats, which is why he held on in 1993, and which is why he will be in a contest with Libby Davies in Vancouver East for highest vote percentage among NDP candidates.
07 05 05 BrianJA
Bill Blaikie has held the seat since 1979, and he can hold it for another 25 years, if he likes. Bill is a riding MP, in other words he is extremely popular in his particular riding, even if the NDP is down in the polls. The Conservatives, or maybe Liberals, will come in second, and Bill will likely not win a majority victory here, but he'll still hold on. Prediction: Blaikie with 40%+ of the vote.
06 05 05 M Moreau
No doubt that this is going to the NDP. Bill Blaikie is extremely popular and other parties almost never treat this seat like its in play. No repeat of the 1993 election is possible as the Libs are neither riding a national surge in support, nor are they going to field a candidate as widely respected and popular as 1993's Art Miki. So, there is no discussion here.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Blaikie could take this riding as an Independent, he'll certainly win it as a New Democrat.
04 05 05 Aric H
If Bill Blaikie runs again which I assume he will since I haven't heard anything to the contrary, he will maintain this riding since he has had it since 1979 and still has a high-profile in the NDP and in Parliament.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is generally an NDP stronghold since the Northside of Winnipeg usually goes NDP. Besides Bill Blaikie is extremely popular amongst people from all sides of the political spectrum. In fact he even survived the 1993 massacre when the NDP only won 9 seats. Even myself as someone who leans to the right, likes Bill Blaikie, so one can imagine many non-socialists will vote NDP simply to support Bill Blaikie.

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