Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:39 AM 6/9/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:02 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Bill Blaikie
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Elijah Gair
Bryan McLeod
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Tanya Parks
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Robert Scott
Paul Sidon
Parti Marijuana Party:
Gavin Whittaker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Winnipeg-Transcona (100.0%)
Hon. Bill Blaikie

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,205 48.15%
7,967 25.23%
5,801 18.37%
2,041 6.46%
566 1.79%

(173/178 polls, 55041/56226 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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06/06/04 Rich Thurston
Email: [hidden]
As mentioned above, this is quite possibly the safest NDP seat in all of Canada. Blaikie wins in a cakewalk.
Pity poor Tanya Parks. She ran against Gary Doer in his Concordia riding in last year's provincial election and now is up against Mr. Blaikie. If anything she should be commended for her commitment to lost causes.
06/06/04 G Kennedy
Email: [hidden]
It will be interesting to see whether Bill Blaikie's behaviour over the past few years will increase or decrease his popularity this time around. I have no doubt that the residents of this riding are generally anti-Bush/anti-Iraq war, but Mr. Blaikie's assertion that the US President just can't murder Iraqi women and children fast enough may have been a little much even for these loyal voters. Interesting also to see what effect, if any, the NDP's rebranding under Jack Layton from the party of big labour to a party for young, largely urban Canadians and the anti-globalization crowd will have on Blaikie's support. This constituency is definitely of the former brand.
25/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Well the Liberal Party has found a sacrfical lamb in Tanya Parks at the last minute to run, so any chance of Mr. Blakie having a serious fight is over now. This will be an easy win for the NDP and with Blakie not having to worry about any serious competition it will allow him to spend is time out on the streets in other Winnipeg ridings helping the NDP hold onto its seats.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Bill Blaikie is one of the more centrsit NDP members. He is also extremly popular in this riding, more so then your normal MP. He could win this riding running for the Communist Party if he chose to do so.
07/04/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
This riding doesn't vote NDP in federal elections -- it votes Bill Blaikie in federal elections. He could win no matter what parting he was running for (although he wouldn't run for any of the other parties). He's survived tougher NDP times than this, and will easily hold on.
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Bill Blakie could run for almost any party and would win his seat. This is the safest NDP seat probably in the country.
17/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Even though he is not the leader Transcona will always be Blakie country!
17/03/04 full name
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
This is Bill Blakie's seat. Period. He will win with well over 50% of the vote.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
NDP incumbent Bill Blaikie will win his seat with little effort. NDP win with at least 60% of the vote.
16/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
This is one of the three safest NDP seats in the country. Bill Blaikie is one of the most highly regarded MPs now serving, and the area has stood by him through some pretty awful years for the NDP. If Blaikie couldn't be unseated in the disaster of '93 or in the low of 2000, he won't lose now.
Expect a margin for Blaikie in the neighbourhood of 10,000 or more.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
Providing Bill Blakie runs again - and nothing indicates he won't - this is the safest NDP seat in Canada. Blakie survived the disastorous 1993 election for the NDP.

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