Update/Mise à jour:
10:47 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:27 PM 08/05/2005
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Simcoe Grey
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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NDP/NPD
Katy Austin
Green/Vert
Peter Ellis
Conservative/conservateur
Helena Guergis
Libearl/libéral
Elizabeth Kirley
Christian Heritage
Peter Vander Zaag

Incumbent/Député:
Helena Guergis

2004 Result/Résultats:
Helena Guergis
22496
Paul Bonwick
22396
Colin Mackinnon
5532
Peter Ellis
2668
Peter Vander Zaag
2285

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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13 01 06 Hubert G. Guttersnipe
As much as it pains me to say it, the riding will go Conservative on Jan. 23, probably by around 4,500 votes. Of course, much of that depends on Peter Vander Zaag, and by all appearances, he's running another strong campaign here on behalf of the CHP. But without a strong Liberal as candidate, Helena will have a cakewalk on her way to becoming Minister of International Cooperation in a Stephen Harper cabinet.
BTW, believe it or not, Conservative (PC/Reform/Alliance) support has actually dropped considerably since 97, from 57 per cent of the vote to around 40 per cent of the vote. I suspect it will probably go up to around 45 per cent on election night. And in reference to a previous poster, Reform only represented a very small part of the riding that was once part of the Barrie-area riding (Ed Harper); Simcoe-Grey has never gone Reform...
And to Kasa Vabu - did you see last night's performance in Collingwood?
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Given that this riding is weird enough to have both a Potato Festival and an Elvis Festival, it does not surprise me in the least that "both the NDP and Green party made their best showings ever in this riding last election. If this support does not hold one would expect it to go to the Liberals." Nonsense. In 2004 the GPC was promoting corporate tax cuts and this election they aren't. Don't you think that sends a few votes to the Conservatives? Though the CHP will take more than that away, the rise in Harper's popularity in Quebec, incumbency, and a general hatred of the provincial Liberal Party of Ontario (probably a big unstated factor in the federal Liberal collapse, remember, Gregory Sorbara the provincial finance minister was caught red-handed and had to step down unlike Ralph Goodale), will seal this for the Conservatives. As noted below, Reform held this seat once.
08 01 06 B. Barker
I drove through the riding yesterday (01/07) and Guergis signs outnumber her competitors no doubt. The Christian Heritage Party candidate seems to have more signs than the Liberals. Combine this with the fact that this is conservative country in the provincial elections, Guergis will win this in a walk.
04 01 06 B. Swidersky
Conservative Helena Guergis is no longer the relatively unknown candidate who defeated Liberal incumbent Paul Bonwick in one of the closest battles of the last election. She has become known as one of the busiest MPs both in Ottawa and in Simcoe-Grey.
23 12 05 ryan
Simcoe grey should be a conservative riding come election day. It was close last election(only 100 votes) but the liberals ran long time mp paul bonwick without him i'd be surprised if it's close. Helena guergis should be able to win this riding.
21 11 05 Kasa Vubu
Without a doubt, Kirley is the far superior candidate and she should be able to run circles around Guergis in any debate. Interestingly, although Guergis has more signs on private lawns in the south end of the riding (not that there are a lot), there are about 1/10th of what she had the last time around. This is significant because the south-end is where Guergis won it last time and the south-end is also where Kirley has her base (Tottenham). Kirley also happens to be the spouse of a well known Tottenham lawyer who happens to be the law partner of the well-known Town of New Tecumseth (a community that includes Alliston, Tottenham and Beeton) solicitor. Given that the previous incumbent, Paul Bonwick of Collingwood (from the north end of the riding), nominated Kirley, one can only assume that Kirley has his support. If Bonwick can deliver the north, and Kirley takes some support in the south, Kirley will win. It should also be pointed out that both the NDP and Green party made their best showings ever in this riding last election. If this support does not hold one would expect it to go to the Liberals. Finally, I have heard that approximately 1/3rd of Guergis' riding executive resigned in the past year. Several are well known Town Councillors in the riding including at least two from the south-end. That makes one wonder what's going on in the Guergis camp.
19 12 05 Conservative Insider
Helena's in a tougher fight than she knows -- she'll be counting on high-profile help, particularly from one Rahim Jaffer -- to come to her aid here. Stephen will be visiting this riding in January, but if he comes more than once, Helena's in trouble and we'll be throwing everything at holding on to this one. It's just too bad that she wasn't a stronger performer ...
18 12 05
Though the Christian Heritage party could prove disastrous to Guergis, I predict she will win again this time by a few thousand votes. The Liberals are sinking in this riding, and though they elected Elizabeth Kirk, I don't think she can match Guergis.
14 12 05 Murray S
The Liberals will win this riding in a close one, with the increase in Urban demographics mentioned earlier and the Liberals making the handgun ban promise to sweeten the Ontario pot Guergis is doomed to be a one term MP. Rest assured the Liberals will put all they've got in to getting this riding.
12 12 05 taurean
The Guest of Honour at this year's Alliston Potato Festival and Collingwood Elvis Festival will not necessarilly be Helena Guergis.
Although she will draw support from the Blue Mountain, Essa and New Tecumseth areas - which are place of traditional rural/tory support, the small towns and villages of Simcoe County will go Liberal. The NDP will pick up the remaining 5k or so votes.
One only needs to look at the poll-by-poll results from last election to see this rural vs. small town divide. The winner in this extremely marginal seat will be won by the party most able to 'get out identified supporters' on election day.
A warning to residents of Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Alliston, Elmvale, etc. - on January 23rd, there might be a knock or two at your door!
11 12 05 Ed
Liberals were unable to find a candidate until the middle of last week.
Elizabeth Kirley has a fine resume in terms of education and some prominence in the very south part of the riding. But an unknown to most in the riding.
No Liberal signs up as yet while Conservatives and Christian Heritage signs are everywhere. NDP nominated a candidate just this past Tuesday.
Still a long campaign but probably after next weekend, everyone will tune out until January 2.
07 12 05 DsW
There's no way that this could be a Conservative lock after a hundred-vote squeaker last time. At the very least, it's too close to call, but I'd quite honestly say that the Liberals will take this one. The population is getting more suburban all the time, which is ripe territory for Liberal pick-up. Moreover, the Tories don't seem to be making any of Helena Guergis other than a pretty face.
04 11 05 Steve G
While Stronach's defection was a disastrous blow to the CPC in the short-term, in the long-term it may be a good thing since it will allow the far more talented women in the CPC caucus (Guergis, Ambrose, Skelton, Finley, and of course Ablonczy) to emerge with greater profiles. This is interesting terrain since it is a former Tory stronghold that has become progressively MORE Liberal in the past two elections, whereas some long-held Liberal fortresses like Essex are veering sharply away, probably for the foreseeable future. Still, Guergis's satisfactory performance as an MP, with the benefits of incumbency, and considering that, contrary to the impressions of many, the Conservatives are actually holding their own in Ontario in virtually every poll, remaining around the 30% mark they achieved in 2004 - this should culminate in a fairly comfortable Tory victory here, not the 100-vote squeaker like last time.
20 10 05
Lol! Quite the "astute" analysis. Guergis, as much as she may aspire, is not the Stronach of the party. Not even close. That said, she should comfortably win re-election given the incumbent factor and the absence of any credible candidate for the Liberals.
12 10 05 A.S.
Wow. In turf that saw Reform's only Ontario win in 1993 and nearly the same in 1997, Stephen Harper was 100 votes away from the supreme humiliation of his party being shut out of every riding prefaced by "Simcoe". (Mitigating factor: York-Simcoe. But the York cometh before the Simcoe, and Peter Van Loan's more PC than Reform, so there.) Blame Paul Bonwick (who topped 50% in Collingwood *despite* whatever role PMPM had in the shipyards' closure), and that robust like-the-80s-once-again CHP tally, and maybe murmurs over Helena Guergis being a carpetbagger last seen on a provincial suicide run in Trinity-Spadina. And on the whole, this turf is getting too exurban/expatriate-GTA'd, too infused by the Michael Stadtlander-dining chattering class, for an easy ride for a political party tarred with the "Cheryl Gallant" frontier-redneck brush (though provincially, John Tory'd be right up their alley). At least Gorgeous Guergis is no Gallant; rather, she's Rona Ambrose's partner-in-arms as tough-as-nails young Tory parliamentary-channel eye candy. And now that constituents have grown accustomed to her and that maybe it's not so bad to be represented by a federal non-Liberal, I'm tempted to make this an outright Tory prediction. But 100 votes is 100 votes.
02 10 05
Okay, so maybe Helena Guergis was buoyed by the Stronach factor; since Stronach's gone out the door, Helena Guegis IS the Stronach of the Conservative party, and therefore, this time she will win by a bigger margin. Interesting reasoning?
17 09 05 M. Lunn
This is a very conservative riding. This was one of the PCs best showings in the 2003 provincial election and only one of five ridings (Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford, Nepean-Carleton), where they got above 50%. This also includes most of Simcoe Centre which was the only riding in Ontario to go Reform in 1993 as well as the Reform Party almost won this riding in 1997. In 2000 the liberals won by a larger margin and nearly won this in 2004 due to Paul Bonwick's personal popularity. If Paul Bonwick runs again, the liberals have a chance at re-taking this, but if he doesn't run again, it won't even be close.
29 08 05
This one is going to be close. Bonwick wasn’t the most liked guy but everyone expected him to get through. Surprize surprize. But 100 votes is didly squat. Helena has worked hard and has not done anything wrong yet but if you talk to her and try to get through another more centrist position her claws come out. If the libs can come up with a good candidate, they don’t have anybody yet and very little organization, they might pull it off. The word on the street is that Helena is not popular with everybody.
11 07 05
WTF? What are some of you people talking about? Don't you hate it when new young candidates become MP's and then turn out to be just as stupid and immature as everyone else. She is someone who is very lippy in parliament and so no wonder why Conservatives like her. That doesn't mean she would make cabinet minister and it doesn't mean she is anymore competent than the other douchebags in that party. Through all of her lippiness she still uses old an used arguments, taking cheap shots, and using stereotypes.
22 05 05 Pepsi
Helena Guergis was part of a group of young conservative women buoyed by the Stronach factor. Here, coupled with the fact that the tories have lost their moderate face in Ontario, the 100 votes will be more than easy to recoup for the Grits.
17 05 05 James Bond
Guergis has been a pleasant surprise as MP. She's built up solid good will in the area and, as demonstrated in 2004, the anti-CPC/anti-Harper stuff doesn't play as well in this area as in the more urban centres. She won't win in a landslide, but will return to parliament with an increased margin of victory.
14 05 05 MF
This is a pretty conservative area, not to mention Paul Martin played a role in closing down the Collingwood shipyards, so the Tories should hang on to this seat. There are a lot of Christian conservatives in the area (the CHP got 4% last time!), they may run a strong candidate or these votes might just go Tory.
Prediction: 46% CON, 36% LIB, 12% NDP, 6% others
11 05 05 Craig
The narrow win by Helena Guergis won't be repeated this time around. She has proven herself as a strong MP who is worthy of a cabinet post. She is one of the young stars of the Conservative caucus who will get off easy against the Liberals, especially with AdScam in their face and the fact that they are out of touch with this riding on gay marriage (especially considering this was one of the best results in Canada for the Christian Heritage Party who almost played spoiler). Predicted results: CPC 50%, LIB 33%, NDP 10%, GRN 4%, others 3%.
09 05 05 The Jackal
It's true that Helena Guergis won this riding by the skin of her teeth in 2004. But she has proven to be a solid MP and is considering a rising star in the CPC caucus. Final synpois CPC-50%LIB-39%NDP-9%OTHER-2%
07 05 05 Full Name
Even though I agree that Helena Guergis has had good exposure in her riding and in Ottawa - the margin of victory last time over an "alright" incumbent should really put this in the too close to call column. With such a volatile electorate this time out I think that this could be one of the ridings that could go either Conservative or Liberal depending on how people are feeling when they head to the polls.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
If Paul Bonwick runs again, he might pull it off for the liberals since he only lost by 100 votes. However, if he doesn't run again, it won't even be close this time around. This is the area the Reform Party won their only seat in Ontario in 1993 and almost won in 1997 so this is a very conservative riding. Helena Guergis was also seen as an outsider and rookie, whereas she has been a very quick learner and likely a cabinet minister if the Conservatives form the next government so her popularity has definitely improved. I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives break the 50% mark this time around.
02 05 05 Brandon
Simcoe-Grey (not Simcoe North) is the Tory riding in Simcoe County. And Simcoe-Grey will give Helena Guergis another 2 thumbs up. She won only by 100 votes last time. That was against a popular Liberal incumbent, however. Since then she has been a very active MP in the riding and in Ottawa. The Reform Party did very well here in 1997, meaning this area is very socially conservative and does not support same-sex marriage. That bends in Helena's favour. Tory hold.



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