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Simcoe Grey
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:02 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:02 PM 6/26/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul Bonwick
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peter Ellis
Helena Guergis
Colin Mackinnon
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Peter Vander Zaag

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford (0.3%)
Hon. Aileen Carroll
Simcoe-Grey (98.6%)
Hon. Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North (1.1%)
Hon. Paul DeVillers

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,898 45.15%
14,834 32.05%
8,077 17.45%
1,535 3.32%
946 2.04%

(2/227 polls, 236/99471 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(196/219 polls, 77318/82895 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Simcoe North
(4/232 polls, 869/80181 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Bob L.
This is a tough call. One would expect a Conservative candidate in this riding to run away with the race given a united Conservative Party. I don't see that here. The Conservative canadidate hasn't been in the riding for many years, isn't well known, and therefore doesn't have the benefit of an established network. Further, if it is a close race Guergis has to be very worried about a strong candidate for the Christian Heritage Party. Peter Vanderzaag is a well educated (I think he's a Ph.D), well-known, well-liked, local farmer from the south end of the riding who is active in local church community. I expect him to finish 3rd in this riding ahead of the NDP. In a close race his candidacy could cost Guergis critical votes.
24/06/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
Have to make some predictions as the deadline nears, and my gut says this'll go conservative, despite the fact their momentum has gone down, I think they will win traditional (electorally) conservative areas in Ontario like Simcoe-Grey. With the polls as close as they are, these traditionally conservative seats will go conservative, traditional liberal seats will go Liberal, and the inbetween/swing seats are too close to call (or i could be way off, who knows).
17/06/04 Joel Kidd
Email: [hidden]
Having just come home from the all-candidate debate in Collingwood, I have a few observations.
1. Bonwick(LIB) drew boos from the crowd on multiple issues. No one was booed as much as he. Which tells me that he's suffering from backlash, and also that Simcoe-Grey is really a morally conservative riding, and the liberal party is morally liberal.
2. Peter Vander Zaag(CHP) stood out as the best man in the race, though he's running for a small party -- the CHP. He was well spoken, courteous, intelligent, and a man of moral fiber. These character traits drew a lot of applause from the audience -- mixed with thin boos of course.
3. Guergis(CPC) spoke well, was polite, pointed out Liberal failures with excellent memory of facts. However, she doesn't stand on any personal moral convictions -- she says she'll do what her constituents want. I think people are looking for more backbone than that.
4. Ellis(GREEN) and McKinnon(NDP) pointed out the priority that our environment should have. An important point. But do we buy their solutions?
God knows what result will come out of our polling stations on June 28th! I sure don't!
13/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Re Guergis, cannon-fodder test runs aren't an uncommon political phenomenon (for instance, Tony Blair first tried his electoral luck in an ultra-Tory byelection no-hoper). The perils of strict extrapolation from prior election results were evident in 2000, when in the run-up it *looked* like Simcoe-Grey--Reform's closest 1997 call in Ontario--might be one of the handful of Ontario seats certain to go Alliance. Uh-uh, far from it--reflective, perhaps, of 905-moderation ripples into absolute exurbia/gentleman-farmer/rural estate country where, paradoxically, Stockwell Day was a less cosmopolitan option than Preston Manning (Belinda Stronach's choice for Alliance leader, lest we forget). But the provincial record remained 50%+ PC through the last election; and while Bonwick's been a pretty good MP considering how vote splits explain his parliamentary presence, he's working against a wave. A scared-of-Stockwell demo saved his skin in 2000; rekindling that dynami! c is his best hope vs. Harper. An interesting possibility, if CPC's got more Mike Harris than Preston Manning to it (and echoed in provincial figures): a reversal of 1997's patterns wherein "Reform" Collingwood is now more Liberal, and "Liberal" New Tecumseth is now more Conservative...
08/06/04 T.O. City Slicker
Email: [hidden]
I like to think of myself as watching this election dispassionately from the sidelines, so I'm not going to call this for any party. While I'm from Toronto, I did travel through much of the riding on holidays recently and noticed a pretty evenly matched 'sign war' though I suspect it meant little since most were on highway land.
The one question I have for those who are closer to the riding pertains to the fact that the CPC candidate ran for the Eves PCs as basically sacrificial cannon fodder in Toronto's Trinity Spadina riding in the last provincial election. (Marchese is the very popular NDP incumbent there, and easily retained his seat even against the provincial liberal tide. Guergis was a poor third.) Anyway, would such a candidacy in ol' TO have any impact on her federal electoral efforts in Simcoe Grey? (e.g. a 'political opportunism' issue?) I wonder what others might think.
06/06/04 RW
Email: [hidden]
Someone used the argument that Paul Bonwick is going to lose because of the close result in 1997. This was because the person running against Paul (when there was no incumbent) won Collingwood, the largest area of this predominently rural riding. Once Paul was successful, the public realized he was the best candidate for the job in 2000 and vote-splitting aside, he was re-elected with a considerable higher result.
This time around, Paul does not have the vote-splitting to aid his cause but he is a very strong candidate (who is from Collingwood) and has done a considerable job to secure a strong base, something the Conservative candidate has not (being a candidate in Trinity-Spadina) and this is why, although it will be close, Paul will succeed in Simcoe-Grey!
28/05/04 Judy
Email: [hidden]
Paul Bonwick will be successful in the next election because he is deeply connected with our community. He knows it better than anyone else running in this election. Paul Bonwick was born and raised in this region and continues to reside in this riding; the Alliance Conservative candidate for example, doesn’t even live in the simcoe-grey riding. Not only that but she jumps from one riding to another to win herself a seat (she last ran in the Trinity- Spadina riding during the provincial election where she lost to the NDP candidate). He is well liked, honest and hard working.
26/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Bonwick won his riding with the smallest majority for a Liberal in all of Ontario in 97. This riding is naturally Conservative (take a look at how the great red tide last year missed this riding) and the Liberals only won because of vote splitting. Truth is most if not all of the Lake Simcoe area ridings are going to go Conservative, unless they tank in Ontario.
17/05/04 Jay P
Email: [hidden]
This is a genetically blue riding that has only gone Liberal for the past decade because of the vote-splitting on the right. It's going to be uphill all the way to election day for Paul Bonwick - he might still pull it out of the fire if the Conservative national campaign stalls in Ontario, but unless it completely goes off the rails, he is likely gone.
11/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I'll be the first to predict a liberal victory here. We have an incumbent, Paul Bonwick. He was able to win here considerably. You can't forget that. Why should things change now? For a Conservative to defeat the Liberals, you need to have at least a strong Reform+Alliance vote to take it. Sure, this is Conservative territory, and it is provincially, but that's different. The Liberals have moved to the right of centre, and appeal to many on the right. It will be close, but the Liberals will hang on here.
06/05/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go to the Alliance-Conservatives. It would be a marginal riding in this election even if there was a strong incumbent. Unfortunately, Bonwick's incumbency is weak. Bonwick narrowly won in 1997, although he managed to win by a significantly larger margin in 2000. The Alliance candidate in 2000 must have been a real dud! Basically, Bonwick is the wrong kind of guy to represent such a rural riding. All flash and no substance might work in a major urban area where party label means everything, but in a rural riding like Simcoe Grey, people want an MP who is down to Earth. Bonwick was elected then re-elected on the party's coatails. I doubt he will get the free ride again this time.
06/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding had a strong showing for the Reform Party in 1993! Add to that strong showings historically in the entire simcoe area for tories past and persent, and you have the right mix for a CPC victory. Polls say the CPC will take 25 seats in ontario, this is one of them.
30/03/04 Wyatt Earp
Email: [hidden]
This one is going to be close, but I see the Conservatives finally making the breakthrough. The incumbent has no volunteer support, a small riding eexecitive comprised of family and close friends and little pressence in the south-end of the riding, except for his constit office and the odd mailing. The Tory machine has a popular candidate who is well known in Conservative circles who has the support of many former Alliance members. Over 800 people were on hand for the Conservative nomination meeting, while the incumbent held his in the local consitiuency office.
29/03/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
An easy win for the Conservatives.
Bonwick is a sub-par MP, who doesn't do his homework and who's idea of constituency work is flying off to different junkets with his office staff.
In fact, his reputation is so low in Ottawa, he is known as the Parliamentary Assistant for Golf.
He has also managed to alienate most of his riding executive and has pushed some of them so far as to either work against him outright or work in other ridings.
No organization and no money = no seat
Lucky for him he got his 6 years and qualifys for a pension.
26/03/04 Freddie Anderson
Email: [hidden]
This is one of the ridings a merged party would've won handily last time. In addition, it's one the Tories hung on to during the disaterous provincial campaign. The Reform Party came within a whisker of winning it in 1997. All that means that if the Tories win 10 seats in Ontario, this should be one of them.
20/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
There are so many reasons why this riding will be go Conservative. The candidate, Helena Guergis, will receive the largest plurality of votes for any Conservative candidate in Ontario. Some of the reasons for a Conservative win here are:
1. Riding has gone Conservative provincially since Confederation (It seems that way). A yellow dog could run here and win.
2. The combined Reform/PC/Alliance vote totals since 1993 have always been more than the Liberal vote by a healthy margin.
3. The Liberal MP flip-floped on the same sex marriage issue. During the 2000 campaign he was against it, now he's for it. This is in the Bible Belt of Ontario.
4. The Collingwood Shipyards was closed down by Canada Steamships Lines' owner Paul Martin. There are a lot of people in the area who would spit on their mother before they would elect a Prime Minister who created 40% unemployment in their home town.
5. Did I mention the Liberal sponsorship scandal?
18/03/04 RWA
This riding was home to the only Reform MP from Ontario, and was a case of vote-splitting in both 97 and 2000. The incumbant is a minor Chretien-era minister who has outlived his usefulness. Tory pickup if they win 25 seats in Ontario, Liberal hold if the Tories falter.
11/03/04 Brad
Well well, another election seems upon us. Could have sworn is was just a few months ago I was doing this for Ontario. If nothing else, the Canadian electoral scene doesn't seem to lack excitment. Anyway, I realize it's very early to make any predictions; however, I think there are a few seats in Ontario where we can reasonably speculate given current conditions.... If the conservatives are going to make a significant breakthrough in Ontario this time, and the signs seem to point to that, then Simcoe Grey will be one of the first to go CP. As my inaugural prediction, I'm going to call S-G conservative.

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