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10:46 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
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11:56 PM 05/05/2005
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Scarborough-Guildwood
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Conservative/conservateur
Pauline Browes
NDP/NPD
Peter Campbell
Green/Vert
Mike Flanagan
Independent
Farooq Khan
Libearl/libéral
John McKay
Independent
Andrew C. Thomas
Canadian Action
Brenda Thompson

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. John McKay

2004 Result/Résultats:
John McKay
20950
Tom Varesh
8277
Sheila White
5885
Paul Charbonneau
1106
Brenda Thompson
200

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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14 01 06 Dan M
Agreed that that this riding will be close one way or another, however have to tip towards Browes. She canvassed our street last night, was thoughtful and articulate with my concerns about change needed in government. Also, many neighbours, particularly "new" Canadians are voting for Browes as she is moderate and has good track record. Have to laugh at the post earlier calling Browes "old" at 67. hey, isn't Martin 67 ?
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
Polls still say the Liberals are strong and the Torys dead in the water in Toronto, despite Tory strength provincially. McKay won with over 12,000 votes (say aloud folks; TWELVE THOUSAND VOTES), he isn't going to fall that much. For the CPC supporters out there, stop griping about ridings in the GTA where the Liberals won with ten, fifeteen, twenty thousand votes plurality in 2004. These predictions just make you look foolish and make your other predictions look less credible. Besides, think of it this way; with Liberal votes concentrated in Toronto and the polls numbers looking the way they do, the CPC stands to win all of the razor thin Liberal victories of 2004 (like Northumberland or Chatham-Kent-Essex), win some of the races where Liberals won by a few thousand votes (places like London and Kitchener come to mind), all the while maintaining the 2004 CPC victories. Just keep it real, will ya?
11 01 06 JT
I don't think the Tories making a breakthrough in this Blue Grit fortess called Scarborough. This riding will be closer than the surronding ones largely due to the CPC candidate having some name recognition. However, Mckay will take this by several thousand votes.
11 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
Pauline Browes is an awesome campaigner. She is everywhere. And when the tide changes as profoundly as is happening shocking things happen. Ask any PC MP in '93.
With a huge lead in the polls -- ten percent nationally -- the bandwagon is going to start in the 416. Scarborough Pickering might have gone too but McTeague is higher profile than McKay.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
Pauline Browes may have been a former Mulroney cabinet minister, but like the rest of Toronto, the Tories cannot win no matter how well their campaign goes or no matter who they run. They would need at least 10-15 point lead province wide before they start picking up seats in Toronto.
05 01 06 love, sydney
I take no joy in these predictions, but Browes is close as a sure thing for the Tories now that the tide has gone out of the Grit beach. She has the experience and name value that puts her on people's minds as they enter the ballot box, nevermind that to date the Conservatives have run a picture-perfect campaign. Harper's scary items will eventually surface, but it may take a year as gov't before we see their true nature. Browes, however, will be a relatively harmless MP.
26 12 05 MH
Hon. Pauline Browes's candidacy is a sign of the desperate condition of the Conservatives in Toronto, somewhat akin to the condition of the Liberals in rural Alberta. Ms Browes is 67 years old, a loyal Mulroneyite who managed to hang on to Scarborough Centre by the skin of her teeth in 1988, then suffered a crushing defeat in 1993 as she finished third behind the Liberals and Reform. Her chances of winning Scarborough-Guildwood are approximately those of a snowball in hell, but apparently no other Tory's chances looked better.
Some people said in 1993 that Jean Chrétien was yesterday's man. What is Ms Browes in 2006? Evidence that in Scarborough-Guildwood the Conservatives aren't even trying? The NDP may well end up in second.
12 12 05 taurean
Mr. McKay - Scarborough's policy wonk will be back in the house, carrying on about everything and anything again in the spring. Having lived and gone to high school in the riding, I know that he is visible in the community and highly accessible. Personally, I'm not a big fan of some of his stances, but he has performed fairly well as an MP.
His competition doesn't have a chance. Ms. Browes, a Mulroney-era retread cannot seriously be considered. She sat in the cabinet of one of Canada's most unpopular governments, and at almost 70 cannot possible present a fresh, new, energetic voice for Scarborough-Guildwood. She is as much an antique as the now defunct Guild Inn.
The NDP candidate (according to his website) wants to implement "practical socialism". Proletarian revolution notwithstanding, this fellow doesn't have a chance. He claims to be a certified travel counsellor, leads an association for humanistic psychology and all while working for IBM. He will get a few votes from Scarborough campus residents and the party faithful, not much more.
Mr. McKay will have a chance to re-grow his mustache in the next session of the house. Liberal win by 7,000 votes.
03 12 05 A.S.
Pauline Browes is what passes for a star Tory in Scarborough now--and given that her most vivid turn in the cabinet limelight was during Kim Campbell's tenure, that isn't saying much. Compounding it all is the same old issue: Scarberia's shifting demographics. Maybe if there were more "Guildwood" to Scarborough-Guildwood, Browes might have half a chance--but as it is, as star Toronto Tories go, she's this year's Dave Johnson. And remember the beating her provincial compatriot Marilyn Mushinski took in '03. John McKay once again by default as per usual--although if we take the anti-SSM Scarborough Liberal caucus as more of a "Bloc Scarberia", maybe it isn't so much by default...
02 11 05 Craig
While not the strongest Liberal riding in the region, it's more than strong enough. John McKay is a popular MP in the area, and like all Scarborough Liberals, the Conservatives cannot use social issues like gay marriage as wedge issues here (but the NDP can!). AdScam is not a big issue in Toronto and the general perception of Stephen Harper is that of being out of touch with urban voters. Predicted results: LIB 56%, CPC 20%, NDP 19%, GRN 3%, others 2%.
12 05 05 Brandon
Former PC Cabinet Minister Pauline Browes is rumoured to be the Tory candidate in Scarborough-Guildewood. This means this will be the best riding for Harper in Scarborough. However, a 12,000 vote win is very hard to overcome unless urban Ontario starts to swing the other direction. For now, John McKay wins here but he shouldn't count his chickens before they hatch.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Scarborough is a middle class type area that will sometimes elect moderate Conservative parties and maybe more hardline ones if they stick to solely fiscal issues i.e. Mike Harris, but won't elect a hardline fiscal AND social conservative party. Interestingly enough, John McKay is really a conservative in liberal clothing. His views on most issues are more in line with that of the Conservative Party than liberals. In fact Warren Kinsella said he should run as Conservative where he really belongs.



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