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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:33 PM 6/8/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:39 PM 17/03/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Paul Charbonneau
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John McKay
Canadian Action canadienne:
Brenda Thompson
Tom Varesh
Sheila White

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Scarborough Centre (22.2%)
John Cannis
Scarborough East (64.5%)
Hon. John McKay
Scarborough Southwest (13.3%)
Tom Wappel

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,792 61.87%
6,154 18.31%
4,098 12.19%
2,086 6.21%
478 1.42%

Scarborough Centre
(42/215 polls, 14131/74162 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough East
(119/194 polls, 40988/71947 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough Southwest
(27/202 polls, 8451/67251 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
If there is a major shift in voter support towards the Conservatives in Toronto this riding could conceivably go blue. At time of writing this still seems unlikely, even though hostility to the provincial Tories is probably less strong here than in the older parts of the city.
Predicting an NDP win is altogether foolhardy. A couple of thousands votes aren't much to build on, and the riding's demographics don't favour the party. McKay will likely return to Ottawa, though whether on the Government or the Opposition benches remains to be seen.
12/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Mind the fact that geographically speaking, Scarborough-Guildwood has shifted a little "intown" from the former Scarborough East; and like the rest of Scarborough, the demographic's shifted as well--which perhaps explains why the hitherto/supposedly "safe" PC MPP Steve Gilchrist didn't just lose in '03, he was whumped by nearly a 20-point margin. (And against a lady of colour!) Although the affluent parts (or what remains of them following redistribution) still project a bit of that tranquil-conservative-exurban "Pickering West" feeling, it doesn't even feel like the same seat which gave Reform its best Toronto result in '93. Yet the Tories are not unjustified in targeting the seat, especially as they do have strength on the municipal level (including deputy mayor/budget chief David Soknacki). But their chances, if high by Scarborough standards, seem rather vague at this point. Re NDP winnability, I wouldn't put SG so low as 19th/20th in T.O.--it isn't *that* monolithically affluent, and indeed there's significant splotches of "Scarlem" within, and don't forget that this part of town went with the Bob Rae flow in '90. In fact, Sheila White's a surprisingly credible candidate for a supposedly lost cause. On the other hand in 2003, Gary Dale ran a quixotically aggressive NDP campaign against Gilchrist, practically running to win--and for all his effort, he still fell out of deposit range. In the end, with the boundary shifts and all, looks like more Liberal wallpaper--but in a minority-or-worse situation, who knows.
12/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I agree about Varesh's chances...I can't predict a Conservative win right now, but the territory is the most promising in Scarborough for the Conservatives and has regularly elected conservatives in any sort of reasonably close provincial race...Given a trend, Scarborough also tends to swing with a greater margin than many other areas, so large majorities for unpopular parties can vanish...See the easy Liberal win in 1985, the NDP "come from nowhere" win in 1990 and the huge Conservative win in 1995 (all provincial contests in this area). Federally, the area went Conservative in 1972, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1988...However, it is not a riding I would give a glancing chance to the NDP...
25/03/04 Red Tory
Tom Varesh is the Conservative candidate in this new riding. He has deep roots in Scarborough and should provide a strong challenge for the unimpressive backbencher MacKay. If CPC grows to over 35% in Ontario, expect to see some of these more suburban Toronto ridings go Tory (as they did in the 95 and 99 provincial elections).
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
JWP needs to get real. Of the 22 Metro Toronto ridings, this one has to be 19th or 20th on the list for the NDP in terms of winnability. If the NDP was going to win a seat in Scarborough, it wouldn't be this one. Liberals in a walk.
16/03/04 JWP
Email: [hidden]
This race for the Scarborough Guildwood Riding will be one of the most interesting races in Scarborough. The NDP have two strong women candidates running for the nomination - Sheila White @ Catherine Kozuch, both have strong name recognition. With the sponsership scandal hurting the Liberals, Scarborough Guildwood all of a sudden becomes into play, and to be frank John McKay if he choses to run in the riding ( all indications are that he will ) will find that he doesn't have a leaders coat tails to coast in on, the way he has before.
Scarborough Guildwood goes orange this time.

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