17 01 06	knows better
I can't believe your not re-looking at this race. This riding has NEVER elected a memeber federally to the opposition. Add to that the fact the the Conservative candidate is working her butt off I think that this former Warden and local politician will win easily riding on Harper's coattails.
	21 12 05	Graydon
I'm a little surprised that this riding is still in the 'too close to call' column. Roger Gallaway was elected in the Liberal sweep of '93 and since then has pretty consistently stayed at the 42% support level. Reporters keep listing this riding as vulnerable, but the eveidence hardly bears this out. There is no legitimate case to be made that this riding will swing at all without a substantial change in the provincial numbers in Ontario. Yet again Gallaway will win with 42% of the vote.
	16 12 05	Brain Trust
this riding will stay Liberal. Galloway is popular & enough of a maverick to easily keep this riding. Now if the conservatives win a few seats shy of a majority, it may quickly become blue after the election.....
	07 12 05	JT
I'm surprised this is labelled too close to call. I could probably name at least 10 ridings in this province that Liberals are more likely to lose than this. Gallaway the maverick MP can successful distance himself from Gomery. Not to mention he listens to the people and not so much the party brass.
	05 12 05	JS
I think HG's analysis of the riding is correct. There are large numbers of small "C" social conservatives in the riding. But, Gallaway's position on marriage, C68 and Kyoto and his independent streak seems to make him well liked or at least respected by many people in the riding (including, IMHO the small "C" conservatives). He won by over 5000 votes last election and I think he will hold on again.
	29 11 05	HG
I live in Sarnia and it is nothing like Windsor. Roger Gallaway really didn't have much of a challenge in the last election. Beaubien was so thorny he offended practically everyone. Pat Davidson, on the other hand, is a much more credible candidate. She will do well in her rural home turf (Wyoming) - but may have difficulties in the city. I also wonder if she can shake the "Harper baggage". The only way Davidson can win is if the NDP increases their vote significantly - at the expense of Gallaway. The NDP will increase their vote - but probably not by enough in this riding. The results in this riding will be closer than last time, I think, but Gallaway will ultimately prevail here, yet again.
	29 11 05	JDG
This one won't change. Roger has too much lingering support for the NDP to rock the boat enough to sink him.
	14 11 05	A.S.
Generally, what B&A says is correct--except provincially during the Bob Rae blip, the NDP hasn't had, legislatively speaking, an elected history in Sarnia. But there've also been signs that, not unlike London, the Rae years led Sarnia to twig onto a certain broad-based NDP-congeniality it never really knew it had; the party lost less ground than usual here in '95, and did surprisingly well provincially in '03--less so federally in '04, but that was due to a throwaway candidate vs the anticipated Galloway/Beaubien donnybrook. And here in the Chemical Corridor, there are plenty of environmental and health-care issues that the Dippers can piggyback off of (and have). Sure, the nature of the industry means there may be more of an post-secondary scientific class ruling the roost here; but this is far from monolithic, far from a strict Lib/Tory Oakville-type seat--with the right wind in the sails, the NDP *can* be competitive here, even with the added rural/Bible Belt territory. But yes, Lib/Tory has the advantage; and Gallaway's irrepressible, so much so that despite a boundary redraw taking this into Conservative Beaubien country, Marcel Beaubien not only fared worse in '04 than in his provincial reelection bid of '03, he didn't even improve upon Sarnia's own non-incumbent '03 PC standard-bearer. (Though a pesky CHP candidate in traditionally ultra-CHP-friendly territory didn't help.) So Sarnia may appear two-way at best, but don't be entirely surprised if it morphs into three-way--although that may be in the event of a plethora of unprecedented three-ways across SW Ontario...
	08 11 05	Bear and Ape
We're going to have to disagree with Steve about the NDP and their possible fortunes here. Correct us if we are wrong, but the NDP has never won in Sarnia-Lambton. It is industrial like Windsor, but the workers in Sarnia are worlds apart from their Windsor counterparts. Windsor is assembly line manufacturing, the work force is mostly less educated (not to be insulting) blue collar working class. Sarnia is mostly petrochemical production and there is not much machenery needing to be manned by unskilled labour. Rather most employees of the chemical valley companies are chemists and engineers; highly skilled workers with post-secondary education. Since both of us are scientists (a collective gasp rings out across the website as it is revealed that we are not political scientists :P ) and live relativly close to Sarnia, we do know the area well and the demographics are quite different than Windsor's. The people working in chemical valley (the chemists and engineers) are closer to other southwestern Ontario urban voters (like in London, Kitchener, Guelph, etc) than the Windsor (or Hamilton) working on the line blue collar types. The rest of Sarnia's population is closer to the southwestern Ontario rural crowd (not to mention that a good chunk of the riding is rural) which is social conservative. Now Roger Galloway is socially conservative and just way too popular to be defeated. So the Liberals will keep this one. However once Roger leaves (and all other factors, like splits on the political right, remain more or less equal) then the CPC would have an excellent shot, with those chemical valley scientists and engineers keeping things competetive for the Liberals. Sorry but the NDP just don't have a chance
	04 11 05	Steve G
Sarnia is a working-class small city which would have been prime territory for the NDP (considering its strength in nearby working-class Windsor) as well as the old Reform/Alliance, but not the newly merged Conservative party with its much-decreased level of populism. Roger Galloway's social conservative views go over relatively well within the city and certainly in the surrounding rural areas. I suspect that when Galloway leaves politics this will be a prime target for all three national parties.
	20 07 05	M. Lunn
With the liberals having made a full re-bound in Ontario and this being somewhat more urban than neighbouring ridings and more liberal than neighbouring ridings, Roger Gallaway should hold his riding even though I do think the Conservatives might gain a few more rural ridings in Southwestern Ontario, but not this one. Besides Roger Gallaway's positions on the Gun Registry, Kyoto Protocol, Gay Marriage, and Abortion are more in line with the Conservatives than liberals so many Conservative voters who vote for the candidate as opposed to the party will vote for Roger Gallaway.
	13 05 05	cal
The NDP will do Roger in. They have a high profile candidate ready to go and while they haven't a hope of winning they will bleed from the Liberals and that coupled with Roger's outsider position, flip flop on gay marriage, will allow the PC to slide right to victory.
	02 05 05	M. Lunn
I think Roger Gallaway will probably keep his riding for two reasons: of the Rural Ontario ridings in Southwestern Ontario, this is probably amongst the least conservative. Add to the fact Roger Gallaway is really a conservative himself in his views on gay marriage, gun registry, CBC, abortion etc, so he should pick up some of those who would normally vote conservative. If the Conservative can retake their six point lead in Ontario, then they might have a good shot at taking this one.
	26 04 05	cal
This is a whole new ball game. If the election is about gay-marriage (and it will be) the confusing positions of the Liberal and Con candidates could get real ugly. Gallaway the Liberal has been a recent out-spoken opponent. This after addressing gay pride marches and calling for full equality. The Con candidate former PC MPP Beaubian is uncomfortable with same sex marriage but not opposed. The only hope Gallaway has is if the NDP can't find a creditable candidate. It saved him last time and might be his only hope this time.