Update/Mise à jour:
12:25 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:58 AM 19/01/2006
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Peterborough
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Independent
Bob Bowers
Conservative/conservateur
Dean Del Mastro
Libearl/libéral
Diane Lloyd
NDP/NPD
Linda Slavin
Marijuana
Aiden Wiechula
Green/Vert
Brent Wood

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Peter Adams

2004 Result/Résultats:
Peter Adams
25099
James Jackson
18393
Linda Slavin
10957
Brent Wood
3182

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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20 01 06 Rudy
I concur with ptbo resident on some of the points. In the Examiner's story on the televised all candidates' meeting, Del Mastro came across as arrogant, presumptuous and sexist and Lloyd finally looked like she knew haow to fight. Sadly, the quality of the candidate doesn't always seem to matter. I suspect that Del Mastro won't do well in the city but will clean up outside of town. I'd hate to say it but the Conservatives will win this one in a very tight race. Peterborough will again follow the pattern nationally.
17 01 06 ptbo resident
Wow, talk about a lot of comments. Well, I have to say that from my feel of things, I have to agree with PTBO pundit... I am getting a real negative vibe from people about the way that Mr. Del Mastro has been running this campaign. And some of the commnets that he is making is sure not gaining him any supporters in certain sections of our community. A prime example came in the January 11th edition of the Peterborough Examiner. He was speaking to a group of students when he was asked about what a Conservative government will do to help with funding for Post Secondary education. He said that " I'm not sure I wouldn't have worked as hard if I hadn't had a financial obligation" in refernce to his own student debt load. Obviously he doesn't realize that many students can't afford to be pushed in that way that he was and he believes that having student debt is good for students, as if attaining a higher education and the career potential that would come therefrom would not be good enough motivation for students today. That is the sign of a man who is out of touch.
15 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
My daughter lives here. I've been to Peterborough once a week since the campaign started. Yes, Slavin is doing better than last time but hers is too big a hurdle to cross. Lloyd is doing much worse than Adams. With the loss of Adams and the national trend, Del Mastro will be an easy winner in the P-Dot.
14 01 06 PTBO Pundit
This will be a very close riding to watch. The Tories who presume that this is in the bag are way off the mark. The word about town is that Delmastro has run the most tacky / obnoxious election campaign in recent memory. His truck with the blue siren light isn't very becoming of someone aspiring to national office. People complain about excessive signage on public property and his campaign ads are booed at Peterborough Pete's Games... - the true heart beat of the riding. Using his car dealership as a campaign office was also a poor decission. However, with the polls moving the way they are in Ontario, Election Prediction is right to put this in the too close to call column.
12 01 06 Full name
This is definitely going to be a Tory pickup. With the conservatives surging all across eastern Ontario (Ottawa and Kingston aside), Peterborough will go to Del Mastro. Liberal Diane Lloyd has been getting creamed in the local papers for two weeks now, and Del Mastro has been pounding the pavement at an impressive rate. John Tory was there this week to lend his name to the Del Mastro campaign as well. With Adams out of the picture, the "swing" characteristics of Peterborough will be the main deciding factor, albeit with a great deal of help from the Tory campaign. The NDP is stronger here than in most other central Ontario ridings, getting a good chunk of votes last time, but not enough to be a deciding factor.
If the signs are a good indication of how the riding is going to go, Del Mastro will take it with a good margin.
12 01 06
I think some people are undermining NDP Candidate Linda Slavin. If the Newspapers are correct in anyway the Liberals are falling apart! That means you will have diaffected voters leaving the Liberals on both sides. Jack Layton is very popular here in Peterborough and that will make a lot of Left wing voters flee into Slavin's arms. Green Candidate Brent Wood is also very intelligent and is attractive to many people. Conservative Candidate Del Mastro won't be getting my vote. But if signs around the city are an indicator of anything Del Mastro will win this riding hands down. On my street during the Provincial Liberal camapaign. There were 5 signs for the Liberals. Today there are only 2 signs for Del Mastro. Many of the people haven't decided. I thought after Diane Lloyd canvassed the riding she would have at least 1-2 signs on the street. No such luck! That means the "Adams effect" might not be working. You have to remember Adams was very popular. But Adams towed the line alot and people are fustrated with that. Del Mastro is a not a car salesmen! He is a businessman! Plus he is not a diehard right winger. Slavin's problem might be that she hasn't been seen in this area even though the local newspaper said she was suppose to be here. People know that Slavin is left of left and some people think she just doesn't like people in the richer west-end. Even though lots of them are Health Care Professionals! She appears to people to be spending too much time downtown and in the county. Last time around she had lots of signs in this area. This time no signs in my immediate area. People have been talking about that. Election prediction is right! Just too close to call! One thing is for sure Jan 23rd sure is going to be an interesting day!
11 01 06 Dale Sanger
Although this is not my riding, I do live close by. In today's Peterborough Examiner (Front page Jan 11). There is an article about how the Liberal Candidate was "on the hot seat" By the sounds of the article (link here http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/webapp/sitepages/content.asp?contentid=140596&catname=Local+News&classif=News+Alert )
The liberal candidate was not well received at a local All Candidates meeting.
06 01 06 Jonathan
This is going to be a very, very close race. Liberal candidate Diane Lloyd isn't anywhere as well known as Peter Adams, but, then again, she's better known than Dean Del Mastro. In my chats with non-decided voters, many of them seem to harbour negative feelings towards Del Mastro. The local Conservative campaign has lots of money, and are getting their word out in the area; however, Peterborough has changed over the last 40 years, and is truly a centrist, if not centre-left, riding.
02 01 06 Ditmar Veinbach
The local Liberal campaign is non existent. The local Tory has been hard at it for months. His signs are everywhere and blue is popping up in places that havent seen a Tory sign for the last 4 elections counting both provincial and federal. Harper has been here and rumour has it he will be back. Martin? Layton? No shows thus far. Peterborough goes back in the blue column.
19 12 05 MS London
John Q. Public is way out of line on this one. Bill Domm represented this riding from 1979-1993 and he was a half-baked car salesman. I went to school with the current Conservative candidate. He was no genius at that time, but may connect with Peterborough's blue collar and rural red neck voters. If there is anything this election shows about Peterborough as a "test market city," it's that it shows the trend towards the lack of quality candidates that are offered by all 3 parties.
18 12 05 Peterborough Guy
With the country divided into different sectors. The regional poll numbers are often more telling than the national. With the Liberals sitting around 46% in Ontario and Harper with not traction here I cannot see Del Mastro making the grade in a pretty left leaning town. Peterborough is the arts and culture centre for this part of Ontario. The only trouble the Lloyd and the Liberals may have here is if Slavin and the NDP prove strong enough to split the vote. Unlikely however the NDP peaked out in the last election.
13 12 05 John Q Public
This has been a Liberal stronghold for 12 years. This is fortress Adams territory. The barbarian hord is at the gates and the Leftist are going to pour hot oil on them. We have two post secondary schools and a very active Arts community. If a half baked car salesman thinks he is going to make any inroads into Peterborough he had better think twice and go back to New Jersey.
05 12 05 Arthur Setka
I think that fact that election prediction has labelled this as too close to call speaks volumes about this "Bell Weather Riding." I think Peteborough is coming into itself. It is growing and developing opinions. To be honest I think it could go anyway between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. This will be definitely be an interesting campaign.
30 11 05 PTBO Pundit
I agree with Mr. J's comment at the bottom of this page.... Peterborough has Liberal councillors, Liberal MP, Liberal MPP, its full of teachers and other government workers. The bottom line is that Diane Lloyd is the only candidate running with any experience as an elected official. She is the only candidate to have shown a serious, practical interest in contributing to Peterborough's political course. It may be close, but this will be a Liberal hold.
28 11 05 College Student
I've decided now that I've seen the candidates...
Even though Peter Adams was highly popular amongst the Peterborough residents, the new Liberal candidate Diane Lloyd looks like she'd have trouble beating a cucumber in this election.
The Conservative candidate, Dean Del Mastro, does look like he has a little spark, his backgound as a car salesman could negatively influence the vote.
The NDP candidate, Linda Slavin, is solid however, I don't think we'll see her win, her role should be stealing former liberal votes, thus launching the conservatives into the lead.
Conservatives will win....but just barely...
12 10 05 College Student
Peterborough is often considered the finest test market in Canada due to its political and demographic similarities to the whole country. My prediction like many others, if Peterborough goes consevative, it is only because the country is voting in Stephen Harper. If Peterborough goes liberal by a small amount, expect another Liberal Minority. Trent Students often add to the NDP & Green vote, however, this is will not be enough for those parties. Fleming College students will most likely be a good mix of conservative, liberal, and NDP votes. That is...if they vote at all!
Also Consider...Peterborough has been neglected by both levels of gov't (also both liberal) in recent years, so you may expect a possible close call election here!
28 05 05 A.S.
The big problem w/Linda Slavin is that, when all is said and done, she didn't really do all that well last time--sure, she got over 10K votes, but that was only enough for 19%, not a lot better than Dave Nickle got provincially a year before. Then again, that might be a measure of strength for Peter Adams' idiosyncratic community-minded approach to backbench Liberal politics (which also allowed him, as Peterson-era MPP, to come but a recount away from withstanding Bob Rae's 1990 landslide). Overall, the artsy "Trent Town" aspect of Peterborough and its drumlinny environs *does* smell sublimely NDP-compatible (and especially Layton-NDP-compatible); but then again, the seat is hemmed in by heavy-Tory backwoods on all sides, and Mike Harris scored one of his most pummelling victories here in 1995. And while the inner core of P'Boro proper is a seething socialist haven, it's way outflanked by the gird of whitebread 705-area-code-and-proud-of-it suburbia that lies beyond. So you can see where, post-Peter Adams, the truer potential anti-Liberal momentum may come from--if it weren't for the local Tory tendency to fall on its own ReformAlliance sword, as if the party hasn't realized it's no longer 1993 or 1995 or 1997. Peterborough's a potent bellwether, alright: so potent that the left consistently overrates its progressivism, while the right consistently overrates its regressivism. Reverend Ken vs. the rural rednecks. Even post-Peter Adams, it could wind up w/Kingston as the sole Grit seat remaining betwixt Ottawa & Toronto--maybe because just like Kingston, it's got a whiff of British "Lib Dem" to it...
26 05 05
Leaning Tory. Reasons. 1) This riding has gone NDP exactly once, by but a handful of votes, when Bob Rae swept a provincial election. Linda Slavin may be a lovely person but Ed Broadbent would have a tough time winning here in the best of circumstances. 2) Peter Adams was definitely a great MP and a widely respected person, but I would argue Peterborough would have voted Liberal in the last four election regardless of candidate. The riding is a bellwether and followed the national trend. Its mixture of urban and rural, of religious groups, of ethnic minorities, closely mirrors the Ontario average. Peterborough will continue to follow the trend. 3) That said, in the last election, Adams was certainly able to outmatch Jackson in stature, helping some swing voters to hold their nose and say they were voting for the candidate not the party. Adams' departure takes away that line of reasoning and opens the riding up to a potential swing. 4) The list of Liberal candidates is underwhelming, but frankly, so is the Tory list. If either side gets a truly great candidate, that could swing the contest. 5) If all things remain as they are, with a weak candidate on each side, I would suggest the contest will be decided mostly by the national trend. 6) In my opinion, the national trend will see an increase in both the NDP and Tory vote, at the expense of the Liberals. Slightly fewer than 3500 would need to change their mind about Paul Martin to elect a Tory here. That could very well happen. 7) My feeling is that Peterborough has missed out on some of the economic opportunities that have helped Toronto or Ottawa in recent years. That lingering economic sluggishness may spark a slightly higher Tory vote as a protest, but again, that is only a feeling.
16 05 05 Craig
One of the most perfect bellwether ridings in Ontario (and all of Canada), the polls will determine the winner here. Peterborough is traditionally Liberal, however has shown it can support both Conservatives and New Democrats as well when they are strong. I wouldn't count out any party, it all depends on how the polls move and whether or not the Liberals can stop the bleeding. The Conservatives may not be able to put all their resources in here as Northumberland-Quinte West is next door and that is the prime target for them. The NDP would need to move up in the polls to have a chance at a steal. Still I cannot call a winner. Predicted results: LIB 35%, CPC 33%, NDP 24%, GRN 7%, others 1%. (Too close to declare a winner)
15 05 05
Liberal MP Peter Adams is indeed very popular in the Peterborough community, and even with sinking Liberal fortunes, Adams may have been able to keep Peterborough in the Liberal column. Adams, however, has announced that he will not be running. If the Liberals want to have any hope of retaining the riding, they need a strong, popular candidate, but in that regard things are not looking good for the Liberals either. Almost every potential candidate the Liberals have publically approached have declined to seek the nomination including Doug Peacock, Dean Pappas, Bob Hall, and several others. To my knowledge, the only one left is the incredibly unimpressive School Board Trustee Diane Lloyd; if she is the candidate, and the Liberals fortunes do not improve drastically on a federal level, The Liberals can kiss Peterborough goodbye.
Moving onward, conventional wisdom would suggest The Conservatives are the favourites here, however, while they certainly could win, things won't be as easy for them as they might appear. A handful of white men are seeking the Conservative nomination, but none of them are particularly well known or impressive. It seems likely that James Jackson will once again be the candidate; Mr. Jackson ran an underwhelming local campaign in 2004, and failed to make a striking impression on voters. While there is a significant conservative voice in Peterborough, it is entirely possible that it would take a more impressive candidate than James Jackson to translate it into a win.
Enter Linda Slavin. In all likelyhood Slavin will be the most impressive, experienced (undoubtedly!), and locally popular candidate in the running. In a political climate where many voters are reluctant to support any party, the effect of local popularity and local experience should not be underestimated; it did, afterall, help the Liberals immensely when Peter Adams was their candidate. Also, Slavin was clearly hurt in 2004 by Adams' successful strategic voting campaign and without Adams, The Liberals will not be able to repeat that success. Expect many NDP sympathizers who voted Liberal strategically in 2004, to return to the NDP fold. The NDP does have some history in the riding, electing provincial NDP MPP's on two occasions, and electing an NDP MP in a by-election in the 60's. Similar in many ways to our current situation, these NDP victories happened at times when there were general feelings of discontent among the electorate, and I wouldn't underestimate NDP chances in 2005.
I put this riding in the two close to call section for now, for two reasons,
1) The CPC and Liberals have not yet nominated candidates.
2) While a Conservative victory is likely, Linda Slavin is nearly certain to be the most proven, well-known candidate in the running, and that combined with feelings of discontent at petty, unproductive way The Liberals and Conservatives have been handling the current political situation will likely lead some voters who wouldn't normally support the NDP, to vote for Linda Slavin. In a three-way race, Slavin could conceivably be elected.
I'll re-assess the situation, however, once the candidates are certain, and the campaign is underway.
12 05 05 Full Name
On April 20, longtime MP Peter Adams announced that he will not be running again, and is retiring. With Adams, it was often a case of a vote for the man rather than for the party, and as a result, the Liberals will be hard-pressed to replace him with a winning candidate. The Mayor, Sylvia Sutherland, who is a Liberal, has expressed that she will not run, as have other prominent Liberals such as businessman Dean Pappas. The favoured replacement for Adams, Robert Hall, is a much-criticized city councillor, and will fall as easy prey to opposition. The Conservatives have yet to name a candidate, as of May 12.
The NDP acclaimed political veteran Linda Slavin on Tuesday, May 10th. Slavin ran in the last election, and garnered in excess of 10,000 votes on both name recognition and a solid NDP base in Peterborough. She is likely to be the only candidate to run that ran in the last Federal Election, and could well capitalize on Adams' retirement and ever-growing discontent with the Liberals among centre-left voters.
I'm predicting a rather tight three-way race with Slavin taking the riding.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This is one of the few ridings in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa (besides Kingston & the Islands, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) that could stay liberal. Peterborough takes up most of the riding's population since this riding is more urban than rural therefore favouring the liberals. Also Peter Adams is reasonably popular, which should help him. However, this is a bellwether riding that almost always goes with the winner so if the conservatives win the next election, they will likely win this riding, if the liberals win the next election, Peter Adams will be re-elected.
09 05 05 paul westwood
toss a coin between CON and LIB to find out the result right now. There is no incumbent advantage and the lead from the previous election isn't exactly insurmountable by any means. It all depends entirely on the national campaign, so for now we will have to wait and see.
09 05 05 Mr. J
Peterborough has a Liberal mayor, Liberal MPP, Liberal MP, Liberal councilors, and the number one employer is the Ministry of Education. This seat will remain Liberal.



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