Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:06 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:28 AM 19/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Peter Adams
James Jackson
Linda Slavin
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Brent Wood

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Peterborough (100.0%)
Peter Adams

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,662 48.43%
14,443 28.36%
6,877 13.51%
3,906 7.67%
1,032 2.03%

(236/240 polls, 85186/85991 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 Sean McCarthy
The Tory and NDP candidates are not well known. This isn't to say they aren't credible or lack experience. It's just that the 99.9 percent of Peterborians who aren't eccentric political junkies generally don't know who they are. Ask any group of constituents and the most comon question is "who is running against Mr. Adams this time."
20/06/04 Bill B
Email: [hidden]
This riding is Peter Adams Territory. He has represented this riding very well in Ottawa. He has worked hard in both the city and county. It has been suggested that this is a traditional Conservative Riding. That is not true. In the last forty years the Liberal Party has held the seat for 24 of those years, first by Hugh Faulkner and currently by Peter.
14/06/04 John
Email: [hidden]
This may have been a conservative riding 40 years ago, but it's pretty hard to think that a guy who makes his living letting people sleep on his couch in his basement is going to make any inroads here, especially when he spends the entire campaign sitting around by himself in a Tim Hortons staring at an empty dayplanner.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
On paper this looks like an ideal Conservative pick-up. However, the feeling here is that Peter Adams has enough personal popularity to win by a comfortable margin.
10/06/04 Stevo
This one should be changed to Too Close To Call. The Liberals by no means have Peterborough in the bag, considering its traditional Tory roots and the fact that many of the ridings surrounding it are poised to turn blue on June 28th. In addition, Peterborough has been pegged as Tory territory by Barry Kay, the researcher behind the famous seat projection declarations we've been hearing so much about, and someone with a track record of accuracy dating back to the 1980 election. This will be one to watch.
10/06/04 Arthur
Email: [hidden]
I think that Peter will take this riding but he will be in for a hard ride right to the end. Peter is very popular as a moderate/left within the riding he will hopefully appeal to many city residents.I predict the rural is going Conservative.Linda Slavin will make a strong showing that hopefully won't split the vote in the city. Peter will have to carve out a unique image by distancing himself from Martin. I support Peter I do not support Paul! It should be noted though on my street where there are 100 houses I am the only one with a political sign! There were at least 5 signs on my "bend" for the Liberals on my street in the Provincial Election! I hope that doesn't mean anything! However, as a card carrying Federal Liberal in this riding I am glad that we have that so called "stupid" clause in your constitution where we have to reassess our leader 1 year after the election. I am moving to dump Martin! Despite everything,those poll by poll results will be really really interesting on June 29th!
10/06/04 Wild Eyed Socialist
Email: [hidden]
To Mike ... who said ... "For those who think that James Jackson is an unknown in Peterborough, you must have had your head stuck in the ground for a long time. He is the current Director of the Greater Peterborough Area Economic Development Corporation - you know the organization working hard to bring doctors to Peterborough!"
---- Okay then, since you brought it up, let's talk about the GPAEDC and all the poop de-doo they're into these days ... and who actually KNOWS that JJ is on the board? They sure are spending a lot of MONEY on staff to bring doctors, with no results yet!! (Check the staff costs, plus the need to set up another committee ...???) . He is, or was, also the chair of tourism, another org in hot water with their new ad campaign that came out of an ad can (ie no local pictures of the Kawarthas) and spent lots and lots of money on questionable media purchases.
Okay then, good leaderhip there!
Have you been to any of the debates this week?
He was not well received. Neither was Peter on many issues.
Linda is the clear leader here in terms of qualifications, in her vast knowledge of all the issues, extensive experience base, and her ability to articulate the platform clearly. JJ frequently says "that's a good idea" to direct questions. Well, that combined with really unclear Party policy (and confused PC candidates) is going to go far isn't it?
"And the merger of the right, the James Jackson will slide nicely into victory in Peterborough."
"Slide nicely"?
I think you might want to watch the results on June 28th.
I don't think anyone is going to slide nicely here.
The last two weeks shall tell all; but my money's on Jack for The Great Debate.
10/06/04 UFO Observer
Email: [hidden]
Peter Adams is a shoe in! Most people are happy with peter. They are willing to give him another mandate. He is well known and makes countless efforts to help people. He certainly is winning the sign war on private property.
Linda has run many times before, being appointed for a second time by her party suggests that the NDP are having a tough time finding other candidates. Also, I am scared to vote for her because a vote for her is a vote for Jackson and thus private healthcare.
08/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
This will certainly be a Conservative riding. With the typical left leaning more to the NDP and Linda Slavin as she has more credit than the Liberals. And the merger of the right, the James Jackson will slide nicely into victory in Peterborough.
For those who think that James Jackson is an unknown in Peterborough, you must have had your head stuck in the ground for a long time. He is the current Director of the Greater Peterborough Area Economic Development Corporation - you know the organization working hard to bring doctors to Peterborough! Plus he has extensive work & volunteer experience throughout the entire County!
07/06/04 Peter
Email: [hidden]
With the recent 35 - 32 lead by the Conservatives
I can't think of one scenario where the Liberals could hold Peterborough a traditional Tory seat
This is said with respect to Mr. Adams, and to Ms. Slavin (who has won once in Peterborough and is a credible candidadte)
06/06/04 Dean
Email: [hidden]
Peter Adams knows every blade of grass in the riding. The riding is his lock stock and barrel. The man is a relentless campaigner and is widely like and considered a great MP. He was even Nominated for chair of his committee by a Conservative Member.
His oppents are weak. Linda Slavn has lost before to the Liberal's and James Jackson is an unknown in a riding that hates unknown canadites. The only thing that could go wrong is that the Adams vote takes it for granted that he will win. Every vote will count in this election.
06/06/04 Jesse Hoffman
Sean, are you for real? Linda Slavin is not, by any stretch of the imagination, an unknown. She has been a respected, dedicated activist in the community for decades. If, in the unlikly case that the NDP take's Peterborough, it will be more on the strenght, and personal popularity of Linda herself, than on the party name. Common sense tells me to still call this for the Liberals, but the NDP is simply destroying the competition in the sign war, and the Conservatives are a very distant third. The Liberals are sinking fast in the polls, and I truly think that if anyone is positioned to beat Peter Adams, it's the NDP and Linda Slavin.
04/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Regardless of the weakness of Jenny Carter's 1990-95 Rae mandate, there's always been NDP pep in Peterborough--although a lot of it is heavily concentrated in the inner city'n'such; but it's not just a "Trent hippie" thing, and the above-average Dave Nickle provincial mandates of '99 and '03 prove it. Yet countering that bohemian/blue-collar Trent-Kawartha-granola ambience is the fact of P-boro being Great White Middle Ontario the way Toronto used to be; remember how it was the home base for Reform/Alliance political operator Nancy Branscombe in the 90s. Within that maelstrom, Peter Adams has been a supple centrist backbencher/constituency man--but Peterborough's also disturbingly ensconsed within the Eastern Ontario ReformAllianceConservative zone. Because it's not quite suburban-boomtown ultra-Tory like Barrie, or quite the easy insular Liberal hold like Kingston, P-borough's a difficult one to judge--though if there's a *big* Tory swing, the rural parts could well pull it into the fold all by their lonesome; except that it's not an unreasonable outer-orbit Layton target as well, and they got the candidate to do it in Slavin. A confluence of all elements of Middle Ontario--are we looking at an under-40% victory? (But forewarned: at this point, the most likely party to win Peterborough with *over* 40% is the Conservatives, as part of a wave...)
03/06/04 Sean McCarthy
This is a liberal hold. Adams has had the riding by the horns for some time now. The opposition parties have not helped themselves by nominating virtual unknowns. And... the bottom line is, he really is an above average, high calibre MP. The average people in both the rural / urban areas of the riding know this. I expect most voters are in no hurry to just throw such experience out the door. There are more people out there who vote for Adams, rather than just his party affiliation, than is commonly thought.
03/06/04 Aedan Shaughnessy
Email: [hidden]
Linda Slavin's campaign has by far garnered the most free media, despite not having as many funda as the Liberal and Conservative campaigns. I certainly expect James Jackson to finish a distant third in this riding, with Linda being the greatest threat to Peter Adams' incumbency.
Email: [hidden]
Me thinks the political tide has turned in favour of the Conservatives in Ontario and the Peterborough riding will be no different on June 28th.
Peter Adams, though a nice man personally,is going to fall victim as a result of his association with the Chretien/Martin legacy of corruption.
An ever-increasing positive profile for James Jackson in the community (note his front page exposure in the Peterborough Examiner on June 1st and the launch of an informative website, to name a few) should help put the Conservative Party over the top when combining a revived city vote with already strong rural support.
29/05/04 Jesse Hoffman
'The Trent hippies who would normally vote NDP will be gone for the summer, meaning that Adams will cruise here.' Well isn't that brilliant comment? Because we all know only 'Trent hippies' vote NDP.
I still say Peter Adams has this riding, but out of the gate is seems to me that his support isn't as big as I thought it was. From what I have seen, Linda Slavin is winning the sign war thus far, but obviously that isn't an accurate measure of overall support. If things get any worse for the Liberals we could actually have a tight three way race here. I put in the Liberal right now though.
28/05/04 DL
I lived in this riding and voted for Peter Adams in 2000. He is a likeable guy who listens and is respectful.
The Trent hippies who would normally vote NDP will be gone for the summer, meaning that Adams will cruise here.
26/05/04 D. Veinbach
Email: [hidden]
Peter Adams has been beaten before. Provincially, in the Bob Rae tide of 1990. But by a very narrow margin... and the people are cranky just now... as they were in 1990. Peter's die hards have their signs up early but there are also alot of early NDP signs dotting the landscape. I dont think Peter can count on the soft middle 5000 voters or so that usually determine most elections in Peterborough to come around so easily this time. James Jackson is not well known out of the gate but he has gotten favourable press coverage in the first few days and that will be enough to make up for his virtual silence pre writ. More and more voters are commuting to the GTA these days and Peter's legendary local appearances will have less an effect this time as many more people are taking their cues from the national press rather than the Examiner. I think the vote will be close, with a very strong showing from Linda Slavin, who is well known as a person of principle. This will serve to bleed off disenchanted Liberal and swing voters. That should be sufficient to allow Jackson to come up the middle. Jackson by less than a hundred votes.
Email: [hidden]
I'm surprised to see this riding listed in the liberal column. I would echo the comments by others that this is a classic bellweather riding. I think nationally we are heading for a very tight election and that the liberals are moving into minority territory. The libs and the conservatives will be in a tough battle here.
24/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
"I have no doubt that this riding may remain Liberal but I think it may be an interesting election." Now THAT'S a wishy-washy prediction, if ever there was one! :-) Let's be frank, here. If the NDP wins a seat in the Peterpatch, it will truly be a sign of the apocalypse. That's not to say there's no support for the Dippers here, but it's a horserace between the Conservatives and Liberals, in which I'll give Adams a slight edge just cause he's personally principled, no matter how mired in scandal his party might be.
12/05/04 Wild Eyed Socialist Wishing NDP
Email: [hidden]
I have no doubt that this riding may remain Liberal but I think it may be an interesting election. Peter Adams has solid support here, I hate to say that ... but it is likely true. He will defend his party despite the scandals.
Yes James Jackson is not known, but he is a good speaker, very professional and will present himself well. His office is in a low profile location down on George Street, not great visibility. Another area to not discount here is the strong emergence of the Alliance vote here. With the party merge, my fear is that the new PC party could come right up the middle, especially with strong rural support. The rural areas also have very strong PC roots; which helped the PCs keep the seat here for many years. James Jackson has strong relationships in the county area and experience in business / tourism. These rural ties should not be discounted.
Enter Linda Slavin. Strong support from the local NDP party in the nomination. Well known, supported in many areas of the left/activist/university communities. Linda will provide strong competition to Peter. She is a strong speaker and very knowledgeable. It will be interesting to see if Jack Layton visits during the cmapaign!
It will be interesting all around.
I have no idea who the Green Party Candidate is; and I'm an environmentalist!
09/04/04 Jesse Hoffman
Well, Peterborough is my home riding, and I'm afraid that this it's staying Liberal, unless they take another big hit in the polls. The MP Adams is indeed well known and respected in the community, and I would agree with Andrew about the Conservative candidate Jim Jackson. He is a complete unknown. Despite my best efforts I have been able to find out nothing about him from anyone, and wouldn't even recognize him walking down the street, i'm sure the same could be said for most other Peterborough voters. Infact Peter Adams may have to look left for his primary opposition. On April 5th the NDP nominated Linda Slavin, who is a well known community and international activist, who has deep roots in the community and is quite well known. She has experience in the world, that perhaps even the sitting MP Adams cannot match, and he would do well not to underestimate Linda. Nevertheless, a weak Conservative candidate should allow Peter Adams to draw some votes from the ri! ght and secure the seat with a fairly strong hold. However, unless Jim Jackson gets out there and makes his name known fast, expect the NDP to finish a surprise second. PREDICTION: Liberals - 43% NDP - 29% Conservatives - 25% Other - 3%
30/03/04 Andrew Cox
Email: Andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Addendum. My apologies. The Tory candidate is not, in fact, from the rural parts of the riding, but runs a bed and breakfast in town. Still, my mistake only reinforces how low profile James Jackson is.
29/03/04 Andrew Cox
Email: [hidden]
Liberal hold. Reasons: 1) Peter Adams is a very solid MP who works hard in his riding. He has always been well-liked and respected, even by his opponents. 2) Adams is a former Ontario MPP who was defeated by a New Democrat in the 1990 election by a handful of votes. As a result, he will work - as he does in all elections - like a maniac to get every vote to the polls and won't take anything for granted. 3) The riding is a bell-weather because it so closely represents the average on some many factors: urban/rural, demographics, age, etc. The rural areas have typically been PC/Alliance with a Liberal/NDP downtown and a Liberal suburban area. Unless the suburbs across Ontario break away from the Liberals, Peterborough should hold. (And if they do, losing Peterborough is the least of Martin's worries.) 4) The NDP here draws from a downtown/university vote that tops out pretty low. Even in 1990 provincially, the margin was very thin for the dipper win. They can draw ! away Liberal votes, but Jack Layton won't play here well outside the downtown. 5) The Tory is a nobody from the rural parts that plays to their strengths, but doesn't draw much in the city. 6) Peterborough is the centre of a key media market with several marginal Liberal seats (Haliburton, Northumberland, Hastings, etc.) The Martin campaign tour will be through here at least once, probably twice during the writ, which should help.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
Peterborough is the quintessential bellweather riding. It has never failed to elect a member of the governning party in decades. Peter Adams should easily hang on to his seat unless there is a Tory tide after the writ is dropped. The Tories would need to win 30+ seats in Ontario before Peterborough would be in play. Plus, the Tories have nominated a no-name nobody as their candidate.
24/03/04 Watcher
Email: [hidden]
A few weeks ago this was a sure thing for the Liberals, now I think that this riding is in play. A Liberal victory is not out of the question by any means, but Peterborough is a real bellweather as the previous poster noted - and over the decades, has elected Liberals, Conservatives, and NDPers at both the provincial and federal levels. I will wait on the campaign to call this one.
18/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
This is known as one of the most famous bellwether ridings in Ontario. If Martin wins the election, it will probably be Liberal. If the Conservatives win, they will go CPC. It's way too early to tell who will win the election but I'd say there will be a marginal Liberal win here.

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