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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Tina Agrell
M. A. Bonnie Brown
Laura Domsy
Terence Young

Bonnie Brown

2004 Result/Résultats:
M.A. Bonnie Brown
Rick Byers
Alison Myrden
Tania Orton
Zeshan Shahbaz

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 harold
Definetely will go down to the wire....But Bonnie by 1000. When Bonnie wins it will definitely be "her" votes and her silent strength with woman voters. I don't think Terrence can beat a 9000 plurality. Also Bonnie is perceived by many as almost an Independent and has run a good constituency office.
She got out a good piece of campaign literature that is her literaure - not the Liberal Party's. And as of yet I have not had a call or canvasser at my door in Oakville for Terrence.
There are still some Ford workers in Oakville. What happens with the Ford Announcement on January 23rd might be a variable.
At the end of the day another website Democratic Space...is still predicting a small Bonnie win. So am I. (I'm kind of curious if Election Prediction will call Oakville right..It has been wrong a few time)
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
A 9000 vote margin separated Bonnie from the Conservative contender in 2004. That's a big jump for Mr. Young to overcome. Can he do it? He has name recognition. The CPC is gaining strength. This is Bay Street style Conservative-land and the CPC blueprint just released appears legit (from what we have been hearing on the news by the buisness-folk). Maybe he will...just wait and watch.
12 01 06 david gates
Less than 2 weeks left and Oakville is TCTC at the moment but I believe it will go CPC. The blue wave is sweeping into the 905 area code ridngs as the National Liberal Campaign falls apart. Terrance Young is a known quanity havng served as a PC MPP in the Ontario Legislature 1995-1999. Bonnie Brown has not run a strong enough campaign to block the blue wave sweeping the area.
11 01 06 Final Prediction
Due to the latest events, I think there could be a major swing in voter-support in Oakville.
1) The rise in Tory fortunes in Ontario has been enough of a swing to defeat Bonnie Brown.
2) That rise in Tory fortune has been in particular from high-income earners, and suburban cities. That applies greatly to Oakville.
3) The local campaign hit some turbulance (as reported by Canada Press, and the Oakville Beaver) with the resignation of the Liberal Riding Association president over an e-mail telling a man to take his "gun-loving ass back to the USA."
4) Oakville then had a shooting at Oakville Place mall, along with other shootings earlier last year.
5) The Tories' tough-on-crime stance has gained major traction in the 905 Region.
Just a few observations. I would at least say this riding is "too close to call" at the moment.
09 01 06 M. Lunn
The tory numbers are certainly improving in Ontario and should they hold them, I say they have a good chance of picking up Halton and Burlington of course if the Liberals re-bound that is a different story. But Oakville is still too urban for them. They lost by 17 points last time and when one considers the NDP is virtually non-existent here, even if the Tories get over 40% they still would lose this. Even Garth Turner on his weblog in the neighbouring ridings admitted his worse polls were in the Halton portion of Oakville, while he was stronger in Milton and Burlington. This area is fiscally conservative, but socially liberal so John Tory should take this back next provincial election, but it will stay Liberal federally. Besides Terence Young was part of the family caucus in the Harris government who were the few social conservatives and often, rightfully so in my opinion, marginalized within the Harris government, which is probably why he didn't run again in 1999 or lost his nomination, I cannot remember which it was. Either way chalk this up for the Liberals
07 01 06 david gates
Surely it is time to put Oakville into the "Too close to Call" category. Terrance Young is a credible CPC candidate who will add strength to the CPC caucus and will serve Oakville well if elected. Computer projections clearly indicate that if current Ontario and Canada wide trends continue, Terrance Young will be elected on January 23. Bonnie Brown is likely done as she has not run a particularly strong campaign such as would be needed to overcome a trend.
31 12 05 A.S.
The longtime richest-place-in-Canada (or something like it), and a longtime PC fortress, it's now a textbook case of old PCs fleeing to the Liberals, to the point of giving Bonnie Brown an *absolute* majority on '04--she even held close to par in the traditionally staunch-PC zones from Old Oakville eastward. (And in this paradoxical Ford Motors town, she's a natural beneficiary of Buzz-the-Liberal logic, too.) The as-the-year-turns problem for her is that stuff like Goodalegate may signify those old Harper's-scary tactics passing their sell-by date. And remember: while Bonnie Brown may remain popular, it's the kind of seat where she can get over 40% of the vote and still lose...
28 10 05 Bear and Ape
Looking at Brandon's posting, we think much of what he says has merit, though our impression is (from some of his other postings) that he is a Conservative supporter and may be a little blinded by partisanism (if we are wrong on this, we are sorry for our presumption and please correct us to the contrary). Now it is very true that this is a "natural" Tory seat, but unfortunatly for the CPC it is a seat that would go Progressive Conservative and not Harper-Republican stlye conservative. The comment about the voters going Liberal at the last minute should exemplify the uncertainty people have about Harper. In such a situation, people will tend to vote for "the devil they know" as opposed to something potentially worse. Until Harper becomes less scary or the CPC gets a new leader (preferably from the PC side) then we think Bonnie has the advantage. Never the less, a good ground team and lots of hard work, the Conservatives could take it, we just think it is very much a long shot. Like Brandon, we too will be watching and we too will be back.
11 10 05 Brandon
Just an update:
Terence Young is supposedly already out campaigning and door knocking; ever since he won the nomination race. If the election is held off until this Spring, that's an entire year's head start on the Liberal campaign (and Bonnie has been in the newspaper once/twice since the election, pretty much). Having talked to my neighbours (who at the last minute voted Paul Martin last time), they seem drawn to Young's founding of Drug Safety Canada since the tragic death of his daughter. Like it or not, that's resonating with voters here and it will help him.
Secondly, the Tories would have done much better in this riding had they actually "mobilized" their vote in the usual East and Olde Oakville deep blue polls, and other upscale streets throughout the riding. (And no, there are many more "Hard Tory" areas in Oakville than just the waterfront homes). These areas may have 'just come out' on their own to vote for Ernie Eves, but the Conservatives aren't "presuming" they are this time. As for the north end, the area is not full of liberal-voting new Canadians as one poster once said. The riding has only about 10% immigrants, as I recall. A matter of fact, the new polls in Joshua Creek will actually hurt the provincial Liberals in 2007, as they voted PC last time around. Anyways, still too much time to tell; I'll be back.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Ideally this should be a safe conservative seat, and will likely return to the conservative fold in the next provincial election, but Stephen Harper's Bush-style Conservatism may sell well in rural ridings, but has very little support in the GTA even amongst those who lean to the right. Even many former Mike Harris supporters, who was certainly no centrist, cannot stomach Stephen Harper's conservatism. Bonnie Brown will easily be re-elected, although she could be in trouble next time around if the Conservatives chose someone from the PC side as opposed to the Alliance side and considering the liberals will likely only win another minority government, the next election will probably happen before 2009.
13 07 05 harold
Winner: Bonnie Brown
One of the best compliments to this site is how now the "Conservative" campaign must try everything and write "hopeful fiction" to defeat Bonnie Brown. Oh I just can't wait to read it
Considering she has now won 4 times in a row - last time with over 50%
Of course the strengths of Bonnie are:
1. The Ford Plant - The continued economic uncertainty in the Auto industry strongly leand that many Oakville residents to "stick" with the government
2. Although Oakville shares Terrence Young's pain in the tragic and unnecessary death of his daughter Vanessa he is a past politician. Oakville still remembers the Young/Harris agenda and it has been quite a few years since he's been an active politician. (Also let's not forget Young lost the Conservative nomination to a more moderate Gary Carr)
The past comments that his name wins votes is spurious. The North of Oakville is a Liberal goldmine with many polls Bonnie won in the 60% to 70% range
3. Also Oakville is a growing town. Much of the North of Oakville is new housing araes. These have traditionally swung to the Liberals.
Also, these new araes tend to be ethnically diverse which helps Bonnie
4. The Conservative's are running behind
Bonnie's going back, she has her own vote - she is active in the community
PS - last election - the Conservative candidate was pro-choice (so I don't think it was a factor in the election)
10 05 05
Oakville voting has shifted over the years. Unless the Tories can find a Star candidate (no -Terrence Young is not a star) the Libs will hold on to this riding - though with a reduced margin.
08 05 05 Brandon
After discussing this with the riding association(s), Oakville appears to be very fiscally conservative and yet very socially liberal at the same time. I would expect John Tory to win this back quite handidly for the Ontario PC's (the new part of the riding actually voted for Ernie Eves but Liberal federally). The reason why Bonnie Brown got so many votes (noting this was among the highest voter turnout in the country) was the abortion issue. Women are powerful in Oakville, are the Mayor, Regional Chair, and MP, and will bring their kids by the ears to the ballot boxes if they have to. This explains why polls for the first time in ritzy southeast neighbourhoods like Eastlake and Old Oakville started going Liberal when internal polling showed Oakville a Tory win 2 weeks before voting day. If Harper shows better "fiscal" policy and sheds his "so-con" image, Oakville's (very) critical voting mass may go for him. The Terence Young factor makes it more interesting since he won Halton Centre in 1995 with the 4th largest plurality of any Ontario riding (16,000 votes). He is well-respected in the north end and should alone swing a few thousand votes. Overall, Harper's performance nationally will ultimately dictate this riding's fate like Mississauga South next door. But the issues favour the Tories here a lot more this year than last year and they won't lose by 9,000 again, unlike what Bonnie Brown arrogantly told the Oakville Beaver newspaper last week.
06 05 05 JC
Just need to point out you've been wrong on this prediction 3 times in a row, people thought Ferrone would win in 2000, people thought Byers would win in 2004, People thought Kirk Franklin would win in the Ontario 2003 Provincial Election. AND THEY DID NOT! Bonnie will win and prove you fools wrong yet again.
06 05 05 Craig
Unlike neighbouring Burlington, this riding has real GTA dynamics as opposed to the social conservatism that thrives next door, and the riding is a mixture of business elites (who may vote either Liberal or Conservative) and middle-class suburban residents (again, split between them although more Liberal now). Social conservatism does not exactly fly here, so while this is in Halton geographically, it has much more in common with the Mississauga ridings than the rest of Halton Region. Also, AdScam has not been as explosive in the GTA as elsewhere in Ontario and especially in other parts of Canada. Bonnie Brown to hold. Predicted results: LIB 44%, CPC 33%, NDP 14%, GRN 6%, others 3%.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Although the liberals will likely hold this, the poll numbers are still too unstable. Last election the liberals took this by 17 points will finished 14 points ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario. If they hold their six point lead, Bonnie Brown will be re-elected. But if the Conservatives have a six point lead like they did a week ago in Ontario, then this could fall to the Conservatives. Although the really only conservative stronghold in this riding is the waterfront houses while the rest of the riding is pretty middle class.
02 05 05 Brandon
If Oakville is "in the bag" for the Liberals, then why did the latest Environics Poll in The Globe And Mail last week state that under current climate conditions, Oakville (with Burlington and Halton) would switch hands "automatically"? This riding did split the vote between the PC's and Reform/Alliance in previous elections and was PC for many elections before 1993. So here's what happened in the last election that lead to Bonnie's larger victory:
Ford Plant funding from the Liberals and none from the Tories. Oakville supported the creation of more jobs at Ford. The funding was announced 2 weeks before the vote and the local Tories basically "gave up". This time around, it isn't a wedge issue that can be made. And Gary Carr running for the Liberals came back to haunt the Tories too. They basically only won the advanced polls (which does provide much hope).
Things are different this time. Oakville's wealthy business leaders send a lot of tax dollars to Ottawa and want the federal government to pay its fair share to the province. Harper, not Martin, has been the advocate for this. Oakville's work force consists of over 50% business owners and managers. They support corporate tax cuts. Martin's deal with Jack Layton to claw back corporate tax cuts is not going over well here at all. Oakville also abhors NDP fiscal policy and won't like dealings with the socialist party.
This time, the Tories' most likely candidate is Terence Young. Remember Vanessa Young, Oakville's famous local tragic death from a few years ago? This is her father and the former Tory MPP for Halton Centre. He has more name recognition and community respect than Rick Byers did. Bonnie Brown hasn't committed to running yet, however.
26 04 05 JC
Bonnie Brown has this one in the bag, she won by 9% last time and to be honest it just seems like this area is not as conservative as everyone believes it to be. Oakville has started to shift to the left, they will vote Liberals because of what was in the budget. Ms. Brown says the biggest issue on her constituents mind is the Fiscal Imbalance. She's going to win.

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