Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:34 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:34 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
M.A. Bonnie Brown
Rick Byers
Alison Myrden
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tania Orton
Canadian Action canadienne:
Zeshan Shahbaz

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Halton (4.5%)
Julian Reed
Oakville (95.5%)
Bonnie Brown

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,821 48.01%
13,701 27.61%
9,930 20.01%
1,360 2.74%
806 1.62%

(10/212 polls, 3568/98898 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(200/201 polls, 76255/76255 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Drove through Oakville on Tuesday night, Byers looks stronger than Bonnie. My socialist cousing lives here realizes that her vote is the NDP is meaningless, but says that Bonnie's campaign has no traction and no Lib literature has reached her door (Third Line and Upper Middle). Byers has inundated them with stuff. Byers, Dean Martin, Bob Dechert and Mike Wallace are all going to win in a new Tory belt from Hwy 10 to Hamilton.
20/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
The Feds came through for Ford this week pledging money for the new plant (pretty good campaign strategy for Brown even though it could technically count as buying votes). Nonetheless, definitly a good wedge issue for the Libs and the CPC. The Liberals here will draw back some left leaning support as a result and the NDP will once again win only 2% of the vote. The problem is that statistics show 52% of working Oakville residents hold managerial job positions or own businesses. This means Ford funding may be a local issue but it doesn't directly impact people's lives enough (not the right group of people anyway) to make it a voting issue as much as healthcare, taxes and accountability might. And the Liberals got the Ford Plant employee vote last time anyway so the Tories here aren't losing anything.
07/06/04 my 2 cents
Email: [hidden]
Brown will take it for the fourth time. With Harper's announcement of no corporate grants, the FORD deal for a flexible plant would be down the tube on June 29th if they are elected. NDP have same position.. no corporate grants.. Byers must be singing the blues. 4,000 Ford workers and other spinoff industries have a clear direction. Even the local paper said this election was about one thing in Oakville - Ford jobs. Although Liberal funds haven't come to fruition yet, they are in serious negotiations.
With the new part of the riding - Iroquios Ridge - this demographic is all liberal.. young families who love the 1 year parental leave. Numerous financial sector employees who approve of Martin's financial record are comfortable with Martin -even if they are mad at him and they will support him rather than the unknown Harper.
01/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I have to agree with A.S that Oakville was (and still is) Progressive Conservative, mainly because of the tradition of supporting them in the past as the #1 party of choice (especially on the taxation issue). I wouldn't say they are "Joe Clark" red Tories, but more in line with Brian Mulroney's darker blue Toryism. Anyways, here's the first update on the local campaign:
-Is it just me or is Bonnie Brown's camp not as worried as they should be? I live in one of the "swing vote" areas of the riding and I have seen more fingers on one hand than red lawn signs in front of people's houses. But you can't go down one street without seeing at least a couple blue Byers signs up. Also kind of strange how she's using her old election signs that sport the Chretien era Liberal logo instead of many new ones...not sure what the strategy is there.
-Can't say if Brown is knocking on doors but Byers showed up at my friend's house with Senator Don Oliver along with him on the weekend. More on this later...
27/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The archetypal affluent 905 riding in spite of the working-class Ford undercurrent, Oakville epitomized federal Toryism until 1993; thereafter it epitomized the eternal Tory quest to recapture lost hallowed ground, only to run smack dab into those Paul Martin budgets being perfectly Tory enough for enough of Oakville's critical voting mass. (Hey, Martin's record even convinced Gary Carr to flee the PCs.) But Finance Minister Paul Martin and PMPM are two different issues. Furthermore, the CPC's done the right thing by nominating 2000's third-place PC candidate--despite that result (attributable to an Alliance "star candidate", the CFL's Dan Ferrone), Oakville's more inherently Progressive Conservative than Reform/Alliance, yet not necessarily so Progressive Conservative to be eternally Martin Liberal, no matter what Gary Carr's decision is. Still, Bonnie Brown's been a pretty credible and competent parliamentary performer for somebody whose probably wouldn't be on Parliament Hill had Avril Phaedra not laid such an electoral egg--she's a lot "cleaner" than Paul Szabo next door--but is that good enough?
26/05/04 harold
Email: [hidden]
Let me commend you on this site - It provides a forum for people to talk politics. However, its popularity is now its weakest point, as now the Tory Campaign in Oakville actually plants items (isn't it obvious from below).
One has to look at what was said in 2003 Election prediction
1. October Road

There's no question that Kurt Franklin (PC) won't win Oakville by the same amount as Gary Carr (Liberal) did last time
2. Tory in Dixie
Come on! This riding should be bedrock Tory. Tossup my eye
3. Nick
There is no way this riding is going to the Liberals Even if the Tory's were reduced to Third Party status in this election Oakville would still elect a Tory MPP. This riding is NOT going to the Liberals in any way, shape or form. Stop dreaming!
4. TD
Whoever thinks the Liberals will come within 5,000 votes is smoking something funny. First of all the Liberal Candidate is running municipally. This is because he even knows he is going to loose. If the Tories won 6 seats in the province this would probably be one of them. Change this one to Tory and stop dreaming....

LIBERALS WIN by 3437 votes. It is not one of the ridings that stays PC
I absolutely agree with BMS that the Ford Plant is the local issue in the riding of Oakville
If everything stays the same, people are presently predicting
either a Liberal majority or a Liberal/NDP coalition.
This means that if Oakville elects a Conservative member than they will have an opposition member. This will make it less likely for the Ford funding.
I am the first one to admit that the election is NOT over. Canadians are more concerned about the Stanley Cup (and cheering for the Calgary Flames) than the June 28th vote.
The debates will happen
Will Martin bomb? Will Harper bomb? Will Layton bomb? These factors will affect Oakville.
Will one item change the election (let's admit it - the evil reptillian memo won the Liberals the last election)
What helps Bonnie
1. Ford Plant - is it best to have a Member in government
2. She is noted as the first legislator in North America to speak against the Iraq war (it is on record) - Imagine if our troops were in Iraq - they'd have been slaughtered
3. Allison Myrden the NDP candidate - A marijuana activist from Burlington. As an Oakville resident there is one thing we absolutely abhorr is parachuted candidates. And those urging change in law and order Oakville are not welcome here. This is the weakest candidate the NDP has ever run in Oakville (noit like lawyer Doudg Black).

What hurts Bonnie
1. A bit of desire for change
So again
PRESENT PREDICTION: Too close/early to call
Let's see what the election holds
Will Martin bomb? Will Harper bomb? Will Layton bomb? These factors will affect Oakville.
We don't know yet. I'll be back.
23/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I riding-specific issue has come about that could make the Liberals, as the editor of the Oakville Beaver stated, "kiss the Oakville Riding goodbye". The Ford Plant wants Federal funding to build a new flex plant and are begging MP Bonnie Brown to fight for the money. She made a speech to the employees about the 100th anniversary of the company and the CAW are upset that she has been "silent" on this issue and accused her of basically doing all talk with little walk. If the Grits don't step in and soon, Brown is going to lose her Ford employee voter base to the NDP or maybe the Tories. In Oakville, the only block of solid red support is Clearview, the neighbourhood where everyone from Ford lives. East or "Olde Oakville" is solid Tory territory and is the biggest block of staunch support for one party in the riding. Everywhere else Lib/Tory support is spread evenly. A riding poll conducted right after Joe Clark's scathing review of Harper showed the Tories neck and neck with the Libs. If she doesn't win the "Ford worker vote", it's going to be bye bye Bonnie!
19/04/04 B.M.S.
Email: [hidden]
Just a reply on Doozer suggesting Oakville won't endorse Stephen Harper. This is an unusual riding where the Toronto Sun is a newspaper favourite among some blue collar workers (Ford Plant, Petro Canada refinery, Speers Road industrial belt), yet there is actually a "Limousine Liberal" population (Mayor candidate Rob Burton, John McCallum who actually lives here) who voted Chretien and will be happy with Paul Martin. so those rare two groups cancel eachother out. However, fears of the loss of the "red Tory" votes won't likely be an issue here. There is a HUGE difference between a Tory and a Liberal here (in principle) and everyone who voted PC last time did so for a reason. Oakville gave Mike Harris (28,000+ votes) compared to Chretien (23,000) and that's with less people who vote provincially. Oakville likely didn't vote for Ernie Eves because he was too left-leaning for their taste (the usual voter turnout last provincial election was down allowing MPP Kevin Flynn to creep in. I'm guessing because the usual PC voters stayed home). Any riding that fell head over heals for Harris that much should feel comfy with Harper. CPC members here endorsed him with 65% support during the leadership race, strongly surpassing the provincial average. At the first CPC Board of Directors meeting, Tories seemed pretty united making remarks like "I want to kick Bonnie Brown out of Oakville" and "I've lived in Oakville for 2 years and I'm already sick of her" as part of their voting speeches. And with Liberal support in Ontario 10% lower than in 2000, those votes have to go somewhere and the NDP is practically non-existant here. Gary Carr may have influenced some Tory leakage to the Liberals but by having Rick Byers (who was PC in 2000) running again, that should help prevent that. Oakville also has a low income population living near Third Line and Kerr Street who voted Liberal last time, but will probably go NDP this election, taking 1000-2000 votes away from Ms. Brown. There is a general re-alignment in the political spectrum going on but the Conservatives here are generally right leaning Tories.
29/03/04 Jerry Mathers
Email: [hidden]
While I am a long-time Liberal, I agree with previous posters that Oakville is ripe for the Conservative picking. This is a well-off Toronto commuter community who has been fleeced by the Ottawa tax authorities for a long time. If we knew that the tax dollars were actually going to legitimate projects, that would be one thing. But the sponsorship scandal shows just how prevalent fraud, not just financial mismanagement, is in Ottawa. Unfortunately for Paul Martin, his alleged ignorance of the fraud just doesn't add up, given that he was Finance Minister for much of the time frame post-1995 referendum. Perhaps Bonnie Brown will become victim of the "unite-the-right" or the same "desire for change" Oakvillians felt that nearly (and likely will in 2006) turfed Mayor Mulvale. Much as I will hold my nose and work/vote for Brown, this riding will be a good omen for the new Conservatives.
28/03/04 Doozer
Email: [hidden]
I agree with the other postings which state that Oakville is a wealthy riding, with many business owners... and they'll be quite happy to elect Paul Martin as CEO. The results from recent elections mirror provincial trends very closely, and the Conservatives are still only polling a few point above where the Alliance was last election, so I predict a Liberal win, by at least a 5% margin. The Conservatives will pick up seats in rural areas, where Stephen Harper will have some appeal, but not in places like Oakville.
23/03/04 B.M.S.
Email: [hidden]
The way Oakville has been known to vote is in the Conservatives' favour this time. This is a wealthy, traditional blue riding to begin with. The only time Oakville has ever gone Liberal is when there is feeling of negativity towards the Conservatives, in which voters tend to be complacent. This allows the Liberals to win, not because Oakville voted Liberal, but because they stayed home and didn't vote for the PC Party. Now there's negativity towards the Liberals! Seeing how in 1990, it was negative feelings towards David Peterson's Liberals that got Gary Carr elected as a new Tory MPP of Oakville South during the NDP sweep (when only 20/130 seats were elected PC, with a drop of four seats from the election before), history has a good chance of repeating itself.
23/03/04 M Cluett
Email: [hidden]
Rick Byers ran an excellent campaign in 2000 and has gained experience over the past 4 years. WIth public discontent for Bonnie Brown running in Oakville, the career disepation light for her is starting to flicker.
Rick Byers wins with a substantial majority. Way too strong for Ms. Brown.
23/03/04 Mike Webster
Email: webstermr@rogers.com
Conservative gain. This is an example of a white collar, traditionally P.C. riding lost to the Liberals because of vote splitting and low voter turnout. Rick Byers is running, who ran P.C. in 2000 and should be able to hang on to all his votes from last time with the Alliance ones.
20/03/04 Adam B.
Email: polski_69@hotmail.com
Rick Byers is a stand up guy, and has been in Oakville for years, heavily active in its respective riding associations. I think that in a riding that is one of the wealthiest in the country, as well as many entrepeneurs and business owners, the Conservatives, with this strong candidate stand to make a nice victory here. I know there is a lot of hatred for the Brown, the incumbent Liberal, as she, like Paddey Torsney in Burlington is never there, and citizens agree she has done nothing for Oakville.
20/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
Oakville will remain Liberal. The memory of dissident PC MPP Gary Carr still strong, the Liberals will win, if only by a slim margin.
20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals and the United Right already have faced off in this riding once, last fall, and the provincial Liberals took this riding handily with popular city councillor Kevin Flynn. Unfortunately, I don't think the federal Liberals will fare nearly as well here as their provincial cousins, because this time the momentum for "change" cuts clearly against them. Right now I think Oakville is still too close to call, but I have to say that Burlington, Halton and possibly Oakville are high probability Tory pick-ups in 2004.
18/03/04 --eternal optimist--
Email: [hidden]
well, oakville's definitely a conservative town, no doot aboot it. however, here is my theory on how the ndp stands a chance:
-the new conservative party is really far right-leaning
-oakville voters are all rather wealthy people who don't like the liberals on principle rather than any hard facts
-the liberals are now right of center, an ideal place to vote for them except for that a lot of oakville-ites don't like bonnie brown any more and want to get rid of her
-the ndp isn't too far left anymore
-oakville doesn't like to go to any extremes, and since the ndp is close to the middle... it could happen!
really though, who am i kidding?? i say liberals. bah.
17/03/04 Editor's note
The three submissions below initially failed the filter test, as they were all generated from the same computer eventhough they are supposedly from two different individuals, and the rhetoric sounds suspiciously partisan and similar. However we decided to post them anyway as they provide some legitimate background information for the riding. They were given zero weight in our evaluation.
16/03/04 Emily G. Wainwright
Email: [hidden]
When examining votes from the last (2000) election, it would appear this could be close, with the combined Alliance-PC vote equalling 45 more than Liberal. With the merger between the PC and Alliance, some feel "red Tories" may vote Liberal. However, you have to consider all the people who stayed home or voted Liberal because Bonnie Brown was doomed to win anyways. Adscam (the sponsorship program) will also tilt the scales as many previous Liberal votes, if they do bother to vote this time, will go to other parties (mainly Tory or NDP). As I've noted before, the riding isn't the same as last time either. Expansions in the rural/wealthy north-east end means good news for the Conservatives, as does many new expensive houses near the Glen Abbey golf course, Bronte, and downtown/east Oakville. Current polling shows Tory support in Ontario on the rise at 31% compared to the mushy 47% for the Liberals. That's without a leader/policy/platform for people to consider and 16% "undecided" voters. That's not to mention the trend of Tory unpopularity between elections. In 2000, the Liberals had 50% in Ontario and 38% for the combined Tory votes. The gap was 14% in 1997, and we were still a vote-split riding then. Conservative support in Ontario should be on the rise after the leadership convention. I therefore expect Oakville to go Conservative by only a few thousand votes, as I expect the Liberals to win the election, but with a minority.
16/03/04 Emily G. Wainwright
Email: [hidden]
Extremely easy Conservative gain. The CPC candidate is Rick Byers, who ran for the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 and will easily keep the "red Tory" votes for he is rather popular with the former PC Party in Oakville and a red Tory himself. He is a star candidate being an advisor to Mulroney Finance Minister Michael Wilson and was even rumoured by the Toronto Sun to run for the leadership of the P.C. Party in 2003. Liberal MP Bonnie Brown may not be as popular a politician in Oakville anymore because of some of the remarks she made including her infamous speech of comparing George Bush to the Pearl Harbour attacks, which gained front page coverage in the National Post and a not-so-pleasant reaction in our Oakville Beaver newspaper. Provincially, we did go Liberal, but by a very small margin, all due to popular former MPP Gary Carr's unpleasant statements about Ernie Eves. So a lot of people took Carr's side and the majority of Tory voters just stayed home Election Day. Gary Carr's flirting with the federal Liberal Halton seat recently came to an end because of the neighbouring Sheila Copps-Tony Valeri affair, which reflected badly on the Liberal Party in Halton region as a whole. On a geographic note, the riding boundaries recently expanded into North-East Oakville, which is a very wealthy area and consists of some rural area, which more likely translates into Conservative votes. On a historical note, Oakville has always gone with the Conservatives, likely because of the high "white collar" population here. Otto Jelinek secured an overwhelming majority, even defeating Bonnie Brown in 1988 when vote-splitting wasn't an issue yet. Provincially, when Ontario went NDP, Oakville South was one of the 20/130 seats to be Conservative and has enjoyed a P.C. MPP every time besides then. The only time we did go Liberal was when the P.C. MPP spoke out in favour of gay rights. A definite CPC win.
16/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going to go back to its Conservative roots. The incumbent, Bonnie Brown, has only cruised to 3 victories because of the fractured right. Now that the party is united and gaining steam, she will have to fight hard to retain her seat, as this was a vote-splitting riding in 1993, 1997 and 2000. Before that, it was historically Conservative with P.C. MP Otto Jelinek for many years. Bonnie Brown claims that many PC’s will vote for her instead of the new party. Maybe a few but the Sponsership Scandal will likely change that. Some disgruntled Liberals no doubt will hand their vote to the Conservatives, hand their vote to the now stronger NDP, or simply sit on their hands come Election Day. I see very few Conservatives switching to the Liberals because financial accountability is an important value to most Oakville residents, as this is a wealthier riding. The candidate Brown is up against happens to be Rick Byers, who ran P.C. in the 2000 election. People who voted for him last time will probably do so again, as will former Alliance voters. It’s also important to note that the voter turnout was down considerably in 2000 by the thousands, probably because many conservatives didn’t vote (because they felt it was hopeless either way) or just threw their vote to the Liberals for the sake of not knowing who else to vote for. However, the alternative is now available.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster