Update/Mise à jour:
10:42 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
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5:50 PM 12/01/2006
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Niagara Falls
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Libearl/libéral
Gary Burroughs
NDP/NPD
Wayne Gates
Green/Vert
Kay Green
Conservative/conservateur
Rob Nicholson

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Rob Nicholson

2004 Result/Résultats:
Rob Nicholson
19882
Victor Pietrangelo
18745
Wayne Gates
10680
Ted Mousseau
2071

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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16 01 06 Tom S.
With the numbers as they stand now, nationally and provincially, this one is all over but the shouting. Nicholson historically runs 7% ahead the national party numbers while the Liberal candidate runs -7% running against
Nicholson. (Check it out on elections Canada results). Burroughs had a 14% margain to make up to start. That number has ballooned with the Conservatives taking such a large advantage in the polls. I think it's lights out for the Grits.
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Anyone who thinks the Mayor of Niagara on the Lake, no matter how much he campaigns, can take this riding despite a general shift to Conservative, is deluded.
This riding is very diverse and the least representative part of it is Niagara on the Lake, which is widely viewed as a sort of refuge for rich annoying people by its neighbours. Just being the Mayor of NOTL will be enough for most voters, who will immediately sniff elitism and close the door in their head if not in fact.
To win here, a Liberal has to talk very Green about the agriculture, and very NDP about the auto industry, but also has to appeal to blue collar types working for minimum wage in Niagara Falls itself. That doesn't seem possible given the way the Conservative attack ads seem to have bitten on the low income taxpayer, and given the choice of candidate.
10 01 06 Chicken Wing Charlie
Last week a number of Gary Burroughs key advisors quit the campaign and Burroughs hasn't been seen in public for almost a week. This one is all over as the very popular Rob Nicholson wins by at last four times the 1,100 vote margain he had last time. Burroughs is heading for the worst Liberal loss ever in Niagara Falls
06 01 06 Santa
This riding will be closer than the previous bloggers have indicated. The only reason that Wayne Gates did so well in the 2004 federal election was because Daulton McGuinty announced mid-campaign that he was imposing a new health tax. Gates can talk all he wants about being organized (which he may very well be), be he was the direct beneficiary of an anti-Liberal-anything vote in 2004. I do not see that this time around. However, the announcement yesterday that Harper would give the Customs Officers guns may help shore up support for Rob Nicholson (but their votes were always with the Conservatives in the first place). It will be close. Wayne Gates and the NDP have no realistic hope of winning this riding. They are just a place to park disgruntled Liberal and maybe some Conservative votes.
04 01 06 Chas
Nicholson will win, especially if the NDP remains at 22% in Ontario. Last time Gates got 21% of the vote, well above the NDP provincial average and much better than the party had done in this riding in the past. If he maintains this number, and there's no reason he shouldn't, Burroughs is toast. That's what killed Pietrangelo last time. The Libs stand to lose votes in both the Falls and Fort Erie because Burroughs is a nonentity there. I understand that Gates has the same campaign team as last time and they know what they're doing (they ran Kormos campaigns in Welland). The Conservative vote is very entrenched in NOTL and hard to move and that means that even if they like Burroughs personally or as mayor they likely won't vote for him.
30 12 05 Easter Bunny
The Liberals had their shot at Nicholson last time and couldn't beat him.
This time they have the unknown mayor of Niagara on the Lake running and it's not going to work. Nicholson will slaughter Burroughs in Fort Erie, beat him in Niagara Falls and even though Burroughs is from Niagara on the Lake, Nicholson will still have a higher vote total. This might have been a closer race with a strong Liberal candidate from Niagara Falls but that didn't happen. Nicholson will win by at least 2000 votes this time.
28 12 05 Mike
I have met Mr.Nicholson standing in front of 2 grocery stores during this campaign and have not seen Mr.Burroughs out at all. While I am sure Mr.Burroughs will be extremely active, from a neutral point of view, he has been extremely inactive thus far. Much has also been made of Niagara-On-The-Lake. 500 votes is a lot of votes for Mr.Burroughs to take from Nicholson and Gates. This is assuming that Burroughs only needs 500 votes in Niagara-On-The-Lake. My opinion is that he needs at least an 800 vote margain in N-O-T-L. As per previous poster's remarks, he is unknown in Niagara Falls and Fort Erie. Victor Pietrangelo only won Niagara Falls last election because he was so well known in Niagara Falls. It will be a very, very tough task indeed for Burroughs to swing 800 votes. Keep in mind that people in Niagara-On-The-Lake know and trust Nicholson as far as his abilities on Parliament Hill. Ottawa is not the Mayor's office.
26 12 05 Jen
The Niagara Falls riding will go Liberal this time out. The only candidate canvassing (for the past 2 months) has been Gary Burroughs. Sure there are a lot of Conservative signs in Niagara-on-the-Lake and NDP signs on a few main streets in Niagara Falls, but the Liberal candidate has his signs slowly popping up on people's front lawns throughout the riding as if a wave of support. Nicholson is too "right wing" and frankly has done nothing for the riding over the past term. Wayne Gates cannot even get support from Buzz Hargrove, so how can he expect it from educated voters? Prediction: Gary Burroughs wins this riding for the Liberals by 2000.
23 12 05 John D.
This riding will be close, but I have to give the slight edge to the Liberals. In 2004 Nicholson won Niagara-on-the-Lake by approximately 1000 votes, and in turn the riding by about the same margin. Gary Burroughs, as the Lord Mayor of Niagara-on-the-Lake will surely erode at least half of this cushion in his home town essentially causing a 2 vote swing for each one he takes from Nicholson, as well as some NDP votes (not that there were many in this Conservative town). That leads to Niagara Falls and Fort Erie. In 2004 NDP candidate Wayne Gates did extremely well in both Niagara Falls and Fort Erie capitalizing on the Liberal Premier Daulton McGuinty's very unpopular health "premium" (tax). In disgust, many Liberals parked their votes with Wayne Gates. He is popular in Niagar Niagara Falls, but really not that significant in Fort Erie. In conclusion, I see the balance of the votes for Gary Burroughs coming from the NDP in Fort Erie and this number will be how many the Liberal candidate wins the riding by. Could be a Liberal victory by anywhere from 500 to 1500 votes.
18 12 05 Bear and Ape
We're going to cautiously give the nod to the CPC for Naiagar Falls. The CPC is gainign steam in SW Ontario, couple that with Nicholson's incumbancy, name recognition and popularity (?) means this will once again go blue. The Liberal candidate's own popularity is whats going to keep this close. Thing to watch is the NDP vote, will it go Hargrove? If it does, it will allow a Liberal win. However if the Liberal vote has collapsed as suggested by a previous poster, then that'll counter act any Hargrove effect.
17 12 05 jonforest
I think Tom overstates the Liberal-ness of this riding: indeed, it seems to be a bit of a bell-weather, going Conservative in '79, Liberal in '80, Conservative in '84 and '88 (when Nicholson himself was MP).
My guess is that this is a Conservative hold. The polls in Ontario seem to be slightly better for the CPC this time than last, so unless there is compelling reason to suppose a change, we should assume a Conservative hold.
15 12 05 D.A. Cooke
I do believe that this riding was lost in the last election, rather than Mr. Poilievre having won it. The residents of Nepean Carleton are largely middle class, whether urban or rural, and cannot possibly relate to a 25 year old western transplant who has fallen into a six figure salary. Beyond all his antics, I was nauseated to hear that he was complaining to Lowell Green (nice forum) about some of his signs being vandalized. First of all, given that he had his signs out prior to the writ being dropped and therefore in violation of election rules (methinks I smell a "culture of entitlement" here) one would think the last thing he would want to do is draw attention to the signs.
15 12 05 P Scholes
The rumour around this riding is that the Liberal vote has collapsed and that this has really become a two way race between the Conservative candidate, Mr.Nicholson and the NDP candidate, Mr.Gates. The NDP strategy of labelling the Liberal candidate, Mr.Burroughs, as the "other Conservative" seems to be paying off. Also, as Mr.Burroughs is the mayor of Niagara On The Lake he is virtually unknown in Niagara Falls and all but forgotten in Fort Erie. With Mr.Martin not mentioning anything about what the Liberal party can do for the wineries during his recent visit to the region I can't see Mr.Burroughs even winning Niagara On The Lake. Mr.Gates was the NDP candidate in 2004 and therefore has even more political recognition than Mr.Burroughs. As a non-partisan I can honestly say that surprisingly the NDP will be a strong opponent to the Conservatives in Niagara Falls.
08 12 05 Tom
The fundemental truth remains that Niagara Falls has always been a liberal town. Nicholson didn't have enough of a cushion from last time to beat someone with even the slightest name reconition, even if mostly in NOTL.
If you don't think this is generally liberal riding... http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=483
06 12 05 KJ
This is one of those ridings where Hargrove's musings will have little effect, if only because Wayne Gates is huge (in reputation if not stature) among the CAW set in Niagara. He ran a solid campaign in 2004 and will be even better this time around. That said, he is a very, very longshot to win this riding. This riding is close and will come down to how well Gary Burroughs can a) get some recognition outside of NOTL; and b) shed his former Tory clothes. It will be an uphill battle for him to beat Nicholson, who is no slouch as a politician and is very popular in Niagara Falls.
03 12 05 mr.t
Now that Buzz is suggesting that NDP'ers vote strategically where they have no chance of taking the seat - the writing is on the wall for Rob. A 10% shift from the NDP (1000 votes) and a 10% pickup in his hometown (NOTL)(+800, all which come from Nicholson) will carry Burroughs into the lead, plain and simple. NDP-9500,PC-19000,Lib-20500,oth-2500
Liberals and Tories in the Falls/Ft.Erie will vote the way they always do - and so the above mentioned shift (which could be even greater) pretty much hands the seat over to Burroughs.
02 12 05 dude
According to the Niagara Falls Review, Burroughs' was a card carrying STephen Harper Conservative two years ago. According to Elections Ontario, he was a donor to the Make Harris Conservatives. Expect the NDP to run with the theme "Burroughs is a Tory". Result: Voters will re-elect the Tory who has the guts to call himself one.
30 11 05 Hootie
This will be a BIG Conservative win.
Why? Well, there are three reasons.
1. Nicholson has been an outstanding elected representative in Niagara for years, and that counts a lot in this very "rural" minded riding.
2. Nicholson has an excellent local organization, will likely be supported by the national conservative campaign, and is considered a highly valued member of the caucus. No chance that Harper & co. will let Nicholson fall without a fight.
3. Burroughs is not well known outside of Niagara-on-the-Lake. He may be the "Lord Mayor", but he's the "Oh Lord, Who's He?" candidate in the rest of the riding. You need mroe than just the Liberal banner to win - and Burroughs doesn't have much of a name.
Face it folks, bellweather riding or not, Nicholson will get re-elected with by a larger margin than last time.
23 11 05 KJ
This is a tough one to call, with three very able men in the running for the seat. Rob Nicholson has been a strong member of the Conservative caucus since the June 2004 election, and was a strong member of Niagara regional council before that. Liberal candidate Gary Burroughs is a well-respected and popular lord mayor of NOTL and former colleague of Rob's on regional council. NDP candidate Wayne Gates had an excellent showing in 2004, has strong ties to labour and is an extremely conscientious man. While an NDP victory is a longshot at best, the strength of the NDP vote could determine whether it is a Liberal or Conservative seat at the end of the election.
09 10 05 A.S.
What really handed NF to the Conservatives, in the end, was simply the weak/nonincumbent Grit vs. strong/moderate/prior-federal-record Tory matter; otherwise, as Judy LaMarsh's old bulwark, the seat's too gritty to be habitually un-Gritty--even if, now bookended by both Niagara-On-The-Lake *and* Fort Erie, it's less relentlessly blue-collar urban in demeanour than it was. But it's worth noting from a PC>Lib standpoint (and with sume regard for Gary Burroughs) that in the traditional Tory power base of NOTL, the Grits actually succeeded at a mid-30s percentage par (surpassing it in the genteel Niagara Parkway belt): it was only by being an NDP black hole that CPC won there. Meanwhile, in the more knockabout turf of Fort Erie, it was the reverse: underachieving Grits, at-par NDP. Ditto within NF proper: the best Liberal polls were the most affluent polls. So, now Rob Nicholson's the incumbent to beat once again. Yet despite his prior elected experience, the whole makeup of the riding guarantees that he remains one of the more "beatable" Ontario CPCs--and with a history of relative NDP competitiveness to contend with, maybe not just by one party, either...
17 09 05 M. Lunn
The fact the liberals have chosen a stronger candidate and actually plan to campaign here rather than write this off, should help. But Rob Nicholson is reasonably popular is one of the more moderate members of the Conservatives. Also the Niagara Region was one of the areas where the Canadian Alliance had their best showings in 2000 so its not likely the Conservatives will do any worse than they did last time around. In fact one poll that showed the Tories 16 points behind in Ontario showed then 5 points ahead in the Niagara Region. The only way the liberals can take this is if they pick up some of the NDP votes who got 20% last time around.
18 08 05 mr.t.
Big Decision last Night!
The Liberals picked Gary Burroughs to carry their torch!
He is a popular Lord Mayor of Niagara on the Lake, where the last Federal Liberal to hold the seat came from.
Given the propensity of NOTL voters to tip the balance when N.F. and Fort Erie split their votes, it is just possible that a hometown boy like Burroughs can unseat the boring tory Nicholson (widely seen as having done nothing since getting elected!)
23 07 05 Hampie E
I believe that Mr Nicholson has this one in the bag. As a member of the CPC and the riding board I can assure you that we are confident of a Nicholson victory no matter who we face for 3 reasons:
1. Rob is a well liked, visable candidate who has experience (cabinate position), and the skills to win.
2. Rob had a big lead as far as CPC cadidates are concerned in Ontario last time and will only increase it this time.
3. If the liberals bring in a NOTL candidate voter loyalty will weaken in Niagara Falls for the liberals. Fort Erie will also vote more conservarive to elect a person from the south central part of the riding instead of the far north.
My prediction Rob not only takes this riding but by a bigger majority than last time.
30 06 05 William
Just heard that Gary Burroughs, mayor of Niagara on the Lake, will be seeking the Liberal nomination. This should scare Nicholson as NOTL won him the last election and Gary, a well-known and popular figure, will siphon off some of those votes. Fact is, though, that Niagara Falls is critical and, to win, Burroughs is going to have to win back some of the NDP votes from last year's election. The NDP team did a great job with a poor candidate. I think Burroughs is largely unknown outside of NOTL but, with the Cons sinking in the polls, Nicholson's incumbency likely won't help him.
06 06 05 AG
Actually, the Liberal vote only dipped in 1997 and rebounded in 2000, much the rest of the country. The national campaign will play a big role here, like elsewhere given the political soap opera that is playing out. With the Liberals rebounding in the polls, even using bad information on electionpredicition.org can’t save Nicholson
14 05 05
Despite what previous posters have written, Liberals in Niagara Falls have consistently won a smaller share of the votes than the Liberal campaign province-wide. The Liberals are also having a very difficult time finding a credible candidate to take on Nicholson. Pietrangelo was not a great candidate in 2004, but at least he had a profile. I predict that the Liberal share of the vote will dip below 30% in this riding, in part thanks to a renewed NDP organization.
08 05 05 Aric H
This riding was mentioned by pollster Allan Gregg on CBC's election coverage last year as one of 5 bellweather ridings to go for the winner every time since 1979. At that point in the night it was Liberal and then the Conservative ended up taking it by about 1,000 votes. What happens here will therefore depend on the candidates in the riding and the provincial numbers. I would say the Liberals could take it back under the right conditions (eg. if they stay well ahead in the Ontario numbers) but that the Conservatives could also hold it. Therefore I think it should be too close to call until we see the Ontario numbers during the election itself.
08 05 05 M. Lunn
I accidentally hit the Tory button for my last post, so I am moving this to the too close to call column. The Tories had a six point lead in Ontario two weeks ago, but now have an 11 point deficit so the numbers are way too volatile now to predict except in those ridings the liberals or tories one by clear margins. I still think Rob Nicholson will be re-elected, but until the Ontario poll numbers stabilize, I don't want to make a call.
06 05 05 Adam Gaudry
Victor Pietranglo's campaign was non-existent, but he lost by only about 1000 votes, it is a traditional Liberal Riding, that still has strong Liberal leanings. The conservatives, stong in Niagara-on-the-Lake and Fort Erie, were weaker in Niagara Falls proper, where the NDP syphoned off the Liberal vote. With a strong campaign and strong candidate, Nicholson can be easily defeated, because the bulk of the support in NF proper, is Liberal.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a bellwether riding that almost always goes with the winner unless it is a close race, in which case the Conservatives usually win even if they lose the election. Also Rob Nicholson has been a strong MP and will almost certainly be a cabinet minister if the Conservatives form the next government since he is the only Conservative MP to have ever been a Cabinet minister at the federal level. A liberal win is possible, but unlikely. This maybe part of the 905 Belt, but not part of the GTA where the liberal vote is concentrated. Despite the liberals leading in Ontario in the most recent polls, that is largely due to the GTA, and in fact outside the GTA, they are trailing the Conservatives.
04 05 05 Nick
Nicholson has already been acclaimed as the Tory candidate for Niagara Falls, and the entire riding association is behind him. I don't even think Jim Diodati running for the Liberals could unseat Rob Nicholson this time around.



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