Update/Mise à jour:
4:47 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:27 PM 05/05/2005
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Hamilton Centre
Hamilton-Centre

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
David Christopherson
Canadian Action
Tony Des Lauriers
Conservative/conservateur
Eliot Lewis Hill
Green/Vert
John Livingstone
Libearl/libéral
Javid Mirza

Incumbent/Député:
David Christopherson

2004 Result/Résultats:
David Christopherson
20321
Stan Keyes
14948
Leon Patrick O'Connor
6714
Anne Marie Pavlov
1422
Stephen Downey
520
IND
Michael James Baldasaro
345
Jamilé Ghaddar
91

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page



Authorized by the Official Agent for David Christopherson

11 01 06 RD
The NDP's choice of Hamilton as the location to launch their platform today (1/11/06) was not by accident. I hear that the NDP is experiencing a groundswell of support in the city, and I would predict that they take both Hamilton East and Hamilton Mountain, along with an easy hold for Christopherson in Hamilton Center.
25 12 05 A.S.
The biggest threat on the Xtopherson horizon is the reawakened spectre of "strategic voting" which unfortunately (deceptively?) has been peeping out of the early polling woodwork in SW Ontario. But if we get down to seat-specific circumstances, it's hard to see how this can fall. Maybe one or two of the Windsor seats might, but this one's a stretch. And if Xto *is* in danger, well, then the Dipper troops in the other two Hamilton ridings will gladly (if tragically) fall on the swords on behalf of "the big one"--that's how Layton won his own seat in Toronto, after all...
05 12 05 political junkie
actually christopherson is not 6 for 6 in other elections run. he lost in '84 in hamilton east to sheila copps-former mayor jack macdonald ran 3rd-and he lost an NDP nomination battle on hamilton mountain to former Ottawa Mayor Marion Dewar in '88. that having been said, unless the wheels completely fall off the national campaign, he wins this one without breaking a sweat.
01 12 05 The Invisible Man
Easy win for Dave, whom everybody likes, even people who vote Christian Heritage. Now, Javid Mirza was tossed aside on the Mountain for star Bill Kelly; he probably would have been a good candidate up there, with an incumbent-less race, but down in Hamilton Centre he's fighting a losing battle. Christopherson is a proven vote-getter: although people tend to point to his loss as mayor in 2003, one must also note he swept the wards that take in Hamilton Centre handily, and he is 6-of-6 for the other elections he has run in. Batting .867? Tip O'Neill would be proud. Anyway, if he could dispose of Stan the Man in 2004, a cabinet minister no less, I can't imagine that he'll have much of a problem against a political neophyte who is relatively unknown and with a tainted Liberal brand (the Conservatives will do poorly here).
28 11 05 justin
In response to CP:
The supposed "kidnapped kids" are university students in Canada. If they were held against their will one would think that their return to Canada would have been forbidden.
Allegations are one thing but at least take the time to get your facts straight.
26 11 05 swankyspoon
I think QM in incorrect on this one. Christopherson is an immensely popular figure in Hamilton who enjoyed a solid win in 2004. The only reason he lost the Mayor's race were the more conservative suburbs which have been amalgamated with the city of Hamilton, but are not a part of this urban riding. I expect a solid (perhaps 15+ point margin) NDP victory in Hamilton Centre this time around.
25 11 05 CP
There is no way Javid Mirza will win this riding. It is an embarrassment for the Liberals to run him with the kidnapping allegations still not resolved. Javid's brothers' children were taken from their mother (who had legal custody) and taken to Pakistan. The public scrutiny of an election will hopefully see this issue resolved and the extent of Javid's involvement will become known. However the allegations get resolved, I would have thought the Liberals would think twice before running such a controversial candidate.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
If the NDP could defeat a cabinet minister by 12 points, when they were lower in the polls, there is no way the liberals can re-take this now that the NDP has the incumbent advantage. David Christophson will easily be re-elected, probably with an increased majority.
08 09 05 QM
Mr. Mirza has a great deal of resources and a strong team around him. His biggest asset will be that he is not afraid to work hard. If the Ontario numbers hold till the election, this should be one of the last Liberal seats in Ontario. Predict 43.5% Liberal, 43.4% NDP, 8% PC and 5% Other.
01 06 05 TAN
I dropped into Christopherson's nomination meeting, and bore witness to a side of the NDP more at home in a Ken Loach film than a "green and prosperous Canada" Jack Layton ad. Indeed, I daresay that honoured guest Jack didn't quite know how best to deal with a hall of several hundred rather hungry oldschool dipper-types who uniformly bayed with every spittle-soaked mention of the word "scab.". I'd drop those people into Calgary Southeast and half-expect them to drum an NDP plurality out of the electorate. Christopherson is capital-S Safe.
20 05 05
In the Spec today it mentioned that Javid Mirza and Bill Kelly made an agreement where Bill Kelly will run in Hamilton Mountain as a Liberal and Javid Mirza will run in Hamilton Centre as a Liberal.
Javid Mirza is the president of the Muslim Association of Hamilton.
Still this riding got David Christopherson name written all over it.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
Popular incumbent, beat a popular incumbent last time, who was high profile, when the NDP vote was less then it is now, with a party with an Ontario Leader = NDP win in Hamilton Centre. Christopherson could sit on his hands all campaign and win.
16 05 05 Craig
David Christopherson should hold on to this seat without breaking a sweat. This is one of the safest NDP seats in Ontario, and by defeating a sitting cabinet minister by a fairly wide margin, the difference should be even greater this time as an incumbent. The Liberals and Conservatives can only battle for 2nd now while the NDP can save resources for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (prime target for a pickup) and Hamilton Mountain (likely to be a 3-way race). Predicted results: NDP 51%, LIB 22%, CPC 21%, GRN 4%, others 2%.
16 05 05 Bear and Ape
Christopherson obliterated the incumbant Keyes in 2004. Keyes is not running again, making it only easier for the NDP to win once again. Liberals would have to have a superstar candidate or helluva lot of luck to win.
13 05 05 MW
Stan Keyes isn’t running again, and the poll numbers don’t show that the Liberals will be gaining any seats [in Ontario] this election. Look for an increase in the CPC numbers here, but not enough for them to be a threat. David Christopherson will win with a wider margin, very easy NDP hold.
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Christopherson took out the incumbant who was also a cabinet minister by over 5000 votes last year. Look for him making short work of whoever the Liberals pick for this riding.
09 05 05 JFB
David Christopherson est très apprécié dans le coin. Circonscription très pro-syndicale. Après un an de travail, le NPD mettra le paquet pour garder cette circonscription. Et Hamilton le lui rendra bien. Victoire du NPD, peut-être avec une majorité réduite cependant.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
A strong union town and considering this was one of the NDP's best showings not just in Ontario but nationally, they should hold this one. Also this was formerly National Revenue Minister Stan Keyes' riding so if David Christophson could take down a cabinet minister, he will be able to take on whoever the liberals run against him.



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