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Hamilton Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:59 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:29 AM 5/15/2004

Constituency Profile
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Michael Baldasaro
David Christopherson
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Stephen Downey
Jamilé Ghaddar
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Stan Keyes
Leon Patrick O'Connor
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Anne Marie Pavlov

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hamilton East (33.1%)
Hon. Sheila Copps
Hamilton West (66.9%)
Hon. Stan Keyes
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot (0.0%)
John Bryden

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,027 52.98%
7,207 18.16%
5,150 12.98%
4,703 11.85%
1,601 4.03%

Hamilton East
(76/190 polls, 26054/64520 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Hamilton West
(165/235 polls, 52651/71333 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(3/196 polls, 16/74416 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for David Christopherson
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Hamilton Centre is all David Christopherson because here the Liberal Stan Keyes splits the right with Conservative Leon Patrick O'Connor, who I think is a former Metis Reformer, if I am on with that one plus Stelco seems to be bigger here than the East and irony doubles as it seems John Bryden from the West did the most past what Dominic Agostino did provincially. Past that, the Copps-Valeri shootout is the top concern amongst constituents, even those locals that were polled at the Jackson Ave. visiting the Canadian Football Hall of Fame say they are either going with O'Connor or Christopherson, not Keyes but more like David plus paul Martin doesn't know what a Democratic Deficit is and Dalton McGuinty doesn't know what a Democratic Renewal is so Hamiltonians are right to be mad and vote NDP until real Reform is to be had in Steeltown.
20/06/04 Justice Jack
I have thought for a long time that this riding was a lock for Christopherson. The question now is how much of an influence the momentum from Hamilton Centre, especially in the eastern area of the riding that was a part of the provincial by-election, will influence Hamilton's three other ridings.
15/06/04 Craig
Email: [hidden]
I believe that Christopherson has the edge here. Below the escarpment (most of this riding) you rarely see a Conservative sign and a surprising lack of Keyes lawn signs. Calling a vote based on Lawn signs is risky, but Christopherson is known and trusted in this riding and has won Provincially here WITH and WITHOUT Hamilton Centre and Westdale as the riding boundaries have changed. Forget about vote-splitting - it won't be a factor.
12/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Stan Keyes is getting more desperate by the day. He was quoted in the Hamilton Spectator that when he goes to people's doors he's subjected to a 10 minute barrage about how the Liberals are a bunch of "god damned liars." His personal popularity will help him some bit but it's not enough to best Christopherson's popularity. Paul Martin will definitely make a few more stops here to shore up support but depending on what happens after the debate, people may not want to see him down here.
The Conservatives are a non-factor in this riding, so prepare for Opposition MP David Christopherson. This may be a good thing if miraculously the NDP and Liberals form a coalition. The NDPers would be in a better position to get some goodies for their riding. McMaster University will always have its hands out for a large investment.
09/06/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: [hidden]
June 8 CBC national had a pretty interesting little profile on this riding. It looks like the NDP candidate did exceptionally well in the municipal elections. This ocmbined with most recent SES polling numbers make me think this is an NDP gain.
09/06/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Spike reminds me of that dolt who predicted that the NDP will sweep rural Alberta because of that province's proximity to Saskatchewan: The NDP is way up in the polls in Ontario, Hamilton is one of its traditional strongholds, and Christopherson is very popular in this part of the city.
Christopherson will win this riding by a margin of Andrea Horvath proportions as Liberal canvassers continuing being cursed out of residences and the Conservatives are a sorry joke everywhere outside of the Mountin.
09/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Craig Oliver said tonight on Mike Duffy's program on CTV that Liberal sources had confirmed to him that it is over for Hamilton Liberals Stan Keyes and Tony Valeri, so this would be a good time to predict an NDP win here.
02/06/04 Spike
Email: [hidden]
In a three way race, it will be a squeaker with LEON O'CONNOR the Conservative edging out KEYES and CHRISTOPERSON a distant third. Hamilton has been hit hard by local tax increases as well as the recent Provincial Liberal's health tax increase. They are mad at the Liberals and afraid of the NDP. Despite Christopherson's appeal, he has lost his Westdale base in the new riding. The Mountain will carry it for O'Connor. You heard it here first.
01/06/04 B.O.
Email: [hidden]
Remember that the by-election actually happened before the provincial budget was released. So if the voters want to punish the Liberals for the budget itself, they actually haven't been able to get it out of their systems. In other words, the voters are likely to be still mad. Combined that with the fact that quite a large portion of the riding never even had a chance to vote in the by-election because they were outside of Hamilton East, and we have a potential for an NDP pickup.
30/05/04 RWA
I think calling this for the NDP is hasty. Sure they won easily in the byelection, but now they're running against a high-profile Cabinet Minister who took 52% last time (to 12 for the NDP). Let's also remember that the Liberals are facing an electorate that wants to punish Liberals in the wake of the provincial budget. However, Hamilton-Centre voters have already had that chance (some of them, at least), and taken it out on the actual perpetrators. Having got that out of the system, I'm sure many will return to Keyes. People have also got to be aware that Keyes is one of Martin's closest caucus confidantes, and that with him in Ottawa, the gravy taps are turned on in Hamilton.
29/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't call this one so quickly. That kind of over-confidence certainly didn't help Dave in the mayor's race. It's true that this is Christopherson's stronghold of support, but take a look at the way the mayor's race result break down:
Ward 2: Christopherson -63%, DiIanni-30%
Ward 3: Christopherson -57%, DiIanni-33%
Ward 4: Christopherson -52%, DiIanni-39%
Christopherson did really well in this area, right? Sure he did, but consider this...
Dave represented this area provincially for years, DiIanni was a virtual unknown (a stoney creek councillor).
DiIanni barely campaigned in this area at all, focussing instead on the mountain, the east end, and the suburbs.
Perhaps Christopherson's legendary popularity is not all it's cracked up to be.

Also note that this riding contains portions of the west mountain....hardly an NDP haven.
It's also well established that people on the mountain vote in greater numbers that those down the mountain.
25/05/04 Justice Jack
Email: [hidden]
This riding is the easiest to call in the Hamilton area. Prior to the by-election, I would have said that it would be too close to call between Christopherson and Keyes. However, I think that the large victory by the NDP, partly due to the poor quality of the Liberal candidate, will have an enormous impact on the result. There is a large underlying anger against the Liberals in Ontario these days, and I do not think that it has peaked yet. Keyes prominence as a leading local Liberal will work against him. In the end, I think that this riding will be won by Christopherson much easier than it could have a few months ago. The conservatives will not be a factor in this riding.
24/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Ah, the net effect of riding redraws; we wanted to think that any seat Sheila Copps gunned for was the stronger blue-collar steelworkers' eat'em raw NDP prospect in Hamilton--but it isn't. And such might even have been the case had Hamilton Centre remained Hamilton West (and not just because of Xtopherson's candidacy). Ironically, the icing on this particular Steeltown Dipper-cake isn't the traditional blue-collar demo; it's the fact that this is the most inner-city yupscale/educated-cultural-class of Hamilton's seats, i.e. marked with a screaming-loud Jack Layton bullseye. However, an important caveat: provincial byelection success doesn't necessarily presage the same federally, or vice versa. (Joe Comartin's 1999 fed byelection near-victory in Windsor-St Clair didn't help his provincial compatriot Wayne Lessard; while Lessard's defeat could scarcely have presaged Comartin's 2000 general-election victory; and in turn, Windsor's now double-barrelled federal NDP representation didn't help 2003's provincial candidates, etc etc.) Besides, Stan Keyes isn't exactly a pushover--but the fact that, at campaign's beginning, he's *already* deemed "endangered" is a pretty ominous sign...
23/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Yo Mate, you called McGuinty classless because he appointed a candidate, but Paul martin is not? Hello?!? Don't you watch the news? Martin has appointed a great deal of candidates clear across the country, honking off scores of voters all along the way. He did not appoint anyone in Hamilton because if he did, his goons (and that's exactly what they are) would have lost due to a massif voter backlash. We are both convinced that he had some backroom dealings in the ousting of Sheila. The fact is that it doesn't matter what the facts are, but what matters is what the voters believe and enough believe that Sheila was wronged. This is going to hurt the Hamilton Liberal candidates. Period! And yes, you are correct that there is a big difference betwen McGuinty and Martin; McGuinty waited until after the election before he broke his election promises. Martin hasn't even called the election and already the "democratic deficit" pledge has been broken. This is going to hurt Martin in Hamilton and in many other corners of the country.
19/05/04 reb
Email: [hidden]
Good call here changing this to NDP. Christopherson has been canvassing since the beginning of the Andrea Horwath by-election. I am sure he has heard lots of venom about Liberals - Provincial, Federal and locally. I believe that Christopherson is starting with maybe 2000 sign locations and maybe 7500 marks from the Ham East by-election. His personal popularity, the riding being his old stomping grounds and his good mayor race results in this area combined with the Horwath slaughter of Liberals definately means a Christopherson victory.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
The Ontario provincial Liberals just lost this seat to the NDP in a by-election. Considering the relative low popularity of the federal Liberals it is our opinion that the NDP will win this seat. We just hope that Valeri in the riding next door gets turfed as well.
18/05/04 Matthew Hammond
Email: [hidden]
In the recent mayoral contest, this riding overwhelmingly favoured Christopherson by a 2:1 ratio over the eventual winner; in contrast the rest of the city which favoured the winner 3:2 margin. If amalgamation did not happen Christopherson would be Mayor of Hamilton. Because he's not he will represent the inner city in Ottawa - no doubt about this. Much of Keyes traditional territory has been left out of this new riding redistribution too.
17/05/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
I cannot understand how people can blindly accept that HESC's nomination process was "rigged"......Sheila has made a lot of accusations, but she has not produced hard facts to support her case. I personally think a lot of voters, while appreciative of everything she has tried to do for Hamilton, are tired of Sheila and her antics.
Considering that most of Hamilton Centre never was the domain of Copps, I also fail to see how this whole riding will go for the NDP, based solely on the Copps/Valeri fiasco.
Christopherson is a huge candidate, the NDP team will be out in force, but remember that Christopherson has not scored well, even in victory. He did not crack 40% in 1999 and in 1995 he almost lost to the Liberals. Howarth's victory reminds all Liberals that they can't take any riding for granted.
McGuinty was classless in his actions. He appointed a candidate. Paul Martin let the people choose in Hamilton. There is a big difference between these men.
17/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Elections Canada must have drawn this riding with Christopherson in mind... a solidly working class seat that includes not only his old provincial stomping ground of Hamilton West, but *also* part of that long time Ontario NDP fortress, Hamilton East.
As if this wasn't enough, the Liberals decided to make his route to Ottawa a bit easier by indulging themselves in an interesting mixture of all out civil war and arrogant top-down directives...
17/05/04 Brant Liberal
Email: [hidden]
As a recently transplanted Hamilton Centre voter I still think this is in the too close to call category. Stan Keyes is a popular guy in a tough fight but the Liberals took almost 53% of the vote last time.
My friends in the riding (who are basically uninterested voters at this point) simply don't care about politics right now. They are talking about beer, holdiays and golf.
This means that the NDP has got to keep the momentum up in the riding when people are tuning out for the summer. The Hamilton East-Stoney Creek melodrama is over. Once the writ is dropped and the national trends and provincial trends start taking shape, the by-election victory may not sustain NDP support in the City.
I think that this is simply too close to call with the riding staying Liberal on June 28.
/05/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
My feeling is that this should be an NDP win by a moderate margin (5 to 10%). Christopherson is both very capable and very well regarded. He won most of this seat from 1985 (I think?) through 1999 and would have won again in 2003 if he had re-offered. At the same time he came very, very close to winning the Hamilton mayor's seat in the municipal elections.
Keyes profile as Minister will not be enough to offset the lower amount of time he'll be able to spend here.
13/05/04 mini phreek
Email: mini_phreek@hotmail.com
The by-election last night for the Ontario seat of Hamilton east was a litmus test for how Hamilton will vote in the up comming election, the NDP could win 2 Hamilton ridings, it will be difficult ousting the liberals here, but the NDP have a good chance now.
13/05/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Hamiltonians are spitting mad at the Liberals, and Horwath's 64% - 26% trouncing of Agostino in the provincial byelection proves it. Horwath was Christopherson's protege, and now that the voters have sent her to Queen's Park, they'll surely give her mentor a lift up to Ottawa, too. I think it's time to move this riding into the NDP column.
13/05/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Paul Martin screwed over Sheila Copps by rigging the federal nomination (Democratic Deficit? Smells like hypocrisy to me). Weeks later Dalton McGuinty screwed over one of Copps’ aides from Hamilton by rigging the provincial nomination (Democratic Renewal? Smells like hypocrisy to me). The result was Sheila’s people sitting on their hands or even working for the NDP (as seen on Andrew Howarth’s campaign). Hamilton rightfully slapped Dalton McGuinty in the face, and will no doubt do the same to Paul Martin.
13/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
The NDP just won the Hamilton East byelection with a whoppiong 64% of the vote. A third of that riding is in Hamilton Centre federally and Christopherson was going to be a very formidable candidate to begin with. Add up the factors:
1. NDP support nationwide has gone from 8-9% to 17-19%
2. The NDP in Hamilton is going to be full of good morale and momentum after the smashing byelection win
3. The Liberals in Hamilton are demoralized and divided after the Sheila Copps fiasco and the beyelection loss
4. Christopherson is a very strong candidate and Stan Keyes is just a typical Liberal nobody with no particular personal following
13/05/04 Lynn Smith
Email: [hidden]
Christopherson will win this riding hands down. I have been volunteering in the Andrea Horwath campaign in Hamilton East and I have noted that response from voters both on provincial and federal issues are not favorable for liberals. A large part of Hamilton East falls in the the new Hamilton Centre and the support is very srong for the NDP. The release of the Provincial Liberal (bad news)budget next week won't do the Liberals any favours.David Christopherson brings experience but most of all integrity to this election.
08/05/04 westdaler
Email: [hidden]
I'm frankly skeptical about Christopherson's chances here. Yes, he managed to win Hamilton West provincially in elections in which the NDP did not do terribly well. But he managed this in a three-way race between strong campaigns run by the liberals and provincial conservatives. A weak conservative showing (which expect here) will help Keyes.
Also, Westdale, which always is one of NDP's stronger neighbourhoods, is now part of the Ancaster riding.
I like Christopherson a lot and voted for him myself several times, but I don't think he'll pull this one off.
08/05/04 To The Max
This riding essentially to be Christopherson's old stomping ground by the same name back when he was an MPP pre-99. It now composes of the very conservative north-west mountain; an area that will turn out to vote and the central downtown area which either goes NDP or Shelia Copps(take note!).
As I had noted before in my H-M post, Stan Keys loses his very supportive Italian areas in the south-west mountain to Hamilton Mountain. This will be a killer since the downtown will go NDP, with the Liberals usually coming a distant second, or in a fair number of cases, third!
The Conservatives are clearly not taking this one, especially with Leon O'Connor carrying the banner again (he was the CA canidate in Hamilton-West in 2000 and is fairly unpopular since he had close Liberal ties in the 90's).
So, with 70% of the riding being the traditional NDP playground, and the Liberals having no clear stronghold in the area and the Conservatives likely to help out in the more attractive ridings that neighbour the area (AFDW, H-M, and to a small degree HE-SC), I predict we'll see Dave move to Ottawa shortly after Martin finally decide to call the election.
05/05/04 Marino
Email: [hidden]
I think Christopherson will take this one. He has a good personal following in the area, the NDP is hungry to win and will pump resources into this race, and the Liberals are going to be hurt in Hamilton by the serial nomination fiascoes with Copps vs Valeri federally and Agostino II vs common sense provincially. If Andrea Horvath wins the provincial by-election, which she stands a good chance of doing, the Federal Liberals are going into a general election with a by-election setback and what is likely to be a very unpopular provincial budget hanging over their heads.
27/04/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
In order to win, David Christopherson will have to focus on increasing his woefully weak voters turnout in his old constituency....sure he won those areas, but the people barely turned out to vote...this after Christopherson campaigned hard in those areas, with DiIanni ignoring the area completely.
David Christopherson is respected but look at the 1995 and 1999 campaigns: he barely won in 1995 and did not get 40% of the vote in 1999. Christopherson is not the political legend some make him out to be.
This riding has a considerable portion of mountain voters - the west mountain does not vote NDP...and they show up to vote.
The way things look now, which is early, David Christopherson will be battling for second spot in this riding.
24/04/04 Matthew H.
Email: [hidden]
David Christopherson is well known and respected in these parts of the woods. With massive labour unrest in Hamilton (re: Stelco) and upcoming Mayday rallies I see the N.D.P. pulling out a victory here. Also helping their case is the fact that this riding includes both the poorest and wealthiest parts of the city. Many on the West Mountain might vote Conservative. The Liberals may fininsh third here sending a major message to Martin by ousting one of his ministers.
11/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
David Christopherson has name recognition and was liked by his constituents when he was a provincial MPP. He managed to take 39% during his run for mayor. Other than Jack Layton, this may end up being the only other NDP win in Ontario where the candidate captures over 50% of the vote. Look for Christopherson to serve Hamilton just as well federally as he did provincially.
07/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Jobs, jobs, jobs... and jobs.
This is going to be THE issue on the doorstep in Hamilton whenever the election is called, and the Liberals are very weak on this file. Hamiltonians will vote for candidates who talk about saving local jobs and may even use the defeat of two local cabinet ministers to get Paul Martin's attention. Right now, only the NDP are talking about a jobs strategy that benefits places like Hamilton. Add to that a strong candidate like Christopherson and the stars have all lined up.
You can't give millions to Canada Steamship Lines or Bombardier to save jobs in Montreal, then turn around and leave Stelco to twist in the wind. It's like running with an "Argos" logo on your campaign signs.
NDP win here with close races Mountain and East--Stoney Creek.
31/03/04 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
The NDP nomination meeting for this riding is set for April 7 at the Unitarian Church on Dundurn. Two candiates are expected to declare-Dave Christoperson who as other posters have commented, has a lot of strength in the riding, and Chris Goodwin, a young activist invovled in, amongst other issues the battle for a sane drug policy. .
One of the most interesint factors is the redistriubtion of the riding of Hamilton East, held by Sheila Copps federally and now vacant provincially with the regrettable passing of Dominic Agostino. Much of Sheila Copps vote should go to the NDP, as these social liberals are upset at how Sheila was treated in her losing fight for the nomination. Then, with the provincial by-lecion having to be called within 6 months and the Ontario NDP needing thia seat to regain official party status this federal riding and Hamilton East Stoney Creek have become the top priority for the Ontario wing of the NDP.
24/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
The poll putting Christopherson in the lead had an extremely small sample with a huge margin of error -- it really can't be regarded as saying much. Still, one thing it does confirm is the NDP has a great shot at this riding -- I'm changing my prediction, it's too close to call.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
A poll out this morning says the NDP would win this seat. I just dont know, seems to me that the Liberals are very strong here, and I just dont know if they can be beat. Time will tell.
20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
From the Hamilton Spectator 3/20/2004: "A poll released by NDP Leader Jack Layton's office says Dave Christopherson would give Liberal cabinet minister Stan Keyes a run for election in the new riding of Hamilton Centre. The poll of 230 voters March 8-9 shows 53.2 per cent of decided federal voters would support Christopherson, with 34.7 per cent for Keyes, and 11.5 per cent for the Tories. The survey by Strategic Communications polling company is considered accurate within 6.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."
19/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
Keyes will keep his seat, but Christopherson will do well and give him a right scare. Keyes's status as a member of Martin's cabinet heightens his profile, influence, and performance. The Hamilton media went nuts when both Valeri and Keyes were appointed to cabinet - this should work in his favour. Again, the strong NDP challenge will encourage the few conservatives in the riding to vote strategically for Keyes as well. As long as the Liberals look like they will retain power, Hamiltonians will want a person in government who can vouch for their city, not a protest candidate on the outside to keep the Liberals in check. However, the Sheila factor will help Christopherson, as will his relative success in the mayoralty race. Keyes by a slim margin unless the Liberals manage to trip massively once again.
18/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Stan Keyes should win, but David Christopherson will give him a run for his money. The current riding comprises most of Christopherson's old provincial Hamilton Centre riding, and he won this area easily when the rest of Hamilton voted for Larry DiIanni in the 2003 mayoral election. However, having a cabinet minister representing the area (and with the potential of being the ONLY Hamilton-area cabinet minister should Sheila Copps run against Tony Valeri) should give Keyes an edge. Unless there's another major Liberal scandal that Christopherson can exploit, Keyes should win -- albeit not by a huge margin.
18/03/04 JW
Email: [hidden]
According to today's Toronto Star Dave Christopherson, former MPP and mayoral candidate, is set to answer Jack Layton's call and run. Hamilton Centre covers the area Christopherson served in Queen's Park, and he outpolled eventual winner Larry Di Ianni here in the mayor's race. At the recent Davenport riding nomination meeting, Layton said internal polls show Christopherson taking Hamilton Centre in a walk. I don't think it will be a walk, but I think Christopherson will be a formidable candidate with a proven base of support, who will speak more to the concerns of downtown Hamilton voters than Revenue Minister Keyes.
18/03/04 full
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
Hold it easily? Hardly. Word is that former NDP Hamilton MPP David Cristopherson will announce that he will be the NDP candidate for Hamilton Center within the next two weeks. Anyone who lives in Hamilton know the huge personal popularity David has in the region. Trust me, with Cristepherson as the NDP candidate this seat is going to the New Democrats.
17/03/04 Hack
Email: [hidden]
David Christopherson represented much of this riding provincially and won it in the Hamilton mayor's race despite losing elsewhere in the city. Combine that with slipping goodwill towards the Martin government because of Adscam, an MP who is tightly connected in the public mind with Martin, rising NDP fortunes in urban Ontario and lingering ill effects from the Copps-Valeri mess next door and this could be an upset.
17/03/04 Nicola
Email: [hidden]
Stan Keyes has been around a long time, but the Liberal brand has been damaged in Hamilton by the Copps-Valeri shootout and the scandals. If the NDP runs David Christopherson, then they have an excellent chance to pull off a win in a close race.
16/03/04 RWA
Stan Keyes has a rising profile in the Martin gov't. He'll hold this seat easily.

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