kam-Kamloops

Election Prediction Project

Kamloops
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:14 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:28 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

BC Conservative
Terry Frank Bojarski

NDP
Doug Brown

BC Liberal
Claude Harry Richmond

Green Party
Frank Stewart

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
RICHMOND, Hon. Claude

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 48330

Dev. from Quota: 2.51%

Area (km2): 2770

Pop Density: 17.45

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

60.21%

22.55%

10.71%

2.11%

1996 Result (redistributed):

44.41%

40.41%

7.48%

5.41%

0.01%

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo South
Kamloops-North Thompson
Yale-Lillooet


	14 05 05	M. Lunn
After seeing the Mustel poll that shows the liberals with a six point lead, which is outside the margin of error, and considering liberal support/NDP support has been stable, I think the liberals can count on being re-elected. This has always gone with the winner since 1903 and that trend will likely continue as Claude Richmond is re-elected and the liberals are re-elected. The interesting race is in the next door riding of Kamloops-North Thompson where two separate polls show Kevin Krueger only has a one point lead.
	14 05 05	Bozard
Despite Claude's high profile and Doug Brown's lackluster campaign, I'm willing to give this one to the NDP. The anger at the Liberals here is palpable. People aren't willing to just forget about the treatment of Hosiptal employees and, above all, the near-privatization of the coquihalla. I've talked to many dozens of people who will vote to turf Claude for that alone. Having an oaf like Kevin Krueger as MLA in Kamloops' other riding doesn't help the Liberals unpopularity here.
	31 03 05	Pundit
Kamloops has been held by Goverment since BC first had political parties in 1903. Not a single time has Kamloops been held by the opposition. Claude Richmond will be going on to his fifth win as MLA for Kamloops.
	30 03 05	PJ
As has been eluded, Kamloops has gone with the winner every election since 1933. It is BC's "Ohio." If the BC Liberals hold their lead, they will hold this riding.
	24 03 05
This should be a very close riding, however I'm giving the edge to the Liberals. I'm not prepared to call it for them because the Liberals are controlling the agenda now, and the NDP haven't picked up their campaign (media wise including adds and platform) yet and the NDP is still ahead in the interior. Nonethless it's a bell-weather and riding too watch. Kamloops is one of the few places that isn't in the bag for either party, or even really leans either way. It's also one of the few places where individuals matter more than the average place. Claude Richmond annoys NDP'ers for what they see as his heavy handed tactics as speaker, yet will that be enough for non-aligned people? It's hard to tell, the NDP will need to paint him as heavy handed, while the Liberals will need to paint him as an elder statesman. Since this area hasn't been hard hit by the cuts, on election day this riding might go Liberal, whereas Kamloops North Thompson an area hit hard by the cuts (that went Liberal in 96') might go NDP.
	22 03 05	M. Lunn
The liberals will probably keep this one. Kamloops isn't as heavily unionized as some other interior towns and the impact of the cuts hasn't been as harsh as areas in the Kootenays for example. It will be a lot closer for sure, but the liberals will likely narrowly hold this. I should be noted that Claude Richmond won this in a by-election back in 1981, which is the last time a by-election went to the governing party. While some may point to the fact that was for the Social Credit, the policies of Bill Bennett are not all that different from Gordon Campbell. The only reason this area went NDP from 1980-2000 was because of the personal popularity of Riis Nielsen, not because it is a left wing area. The Conservatives did hold this riding in 2004 and the drop was only 10% as opposed 20% as it was on a province wide basis.
	14 03 05	My name is fine.
I'm going to disagree with the last poster, and give this one to the NDP, with a proviso or two. The NDP rank and file are hungry - I just read that the campaign is already finding a far greater number of volunteers than it has ever had before. No one expected it, and I think it a) demonstrates the extent of the BC Liberals' unpopularity in Kamloops; and b) augers very well for the organisational success of the campaign. Further, people around town seem especially receptive to the basic themes the NDP has been putting out. In fact, the entire NDP platform seems designed for this district: the privatisations, the school funding cuts, the HEU strike, closing down Ponderosa Lodge (the seniors home), and Gordon Campbell (personally), are all very unpopular with the majority of folks up here. As such, given that both parties enjoy roughly equal support (though I believe the NDP to be less unpopular), I see this district as being very much in play. I base my prediction of an NDP victory, then, on two x-factors that I believe will determine the way this plays out. The first, as always, is the get-out-the-vote. Kamloops is changing a lot, and the breakdown this time around will essentially be the Liberal leaning Aberdeen/Sahali v. the NDP leaning Downtown/Northshore. Though numerically superior, the latter are less likely to vote. As such, the Liberals will likely focus on pulling their votes as much as possible (hoping for the numbers), while the NDP will focus on both snagging Liberal votes (the NDP's Brown is a Ph.D and a C.E.O.), and pulling their votes. Here, I think the raw numbers slightly favour the NDP. The second x-factor is NDP candidate Doug Brown. At times, a seemingly half-hearted candidate, he will need to come out and put the effort in to win it. Few in Kamloops are thrilled about the prospect of re-electing Claude Richmond. Richmond has been around way too long, he's not particularly popular, and as Speaker of the House, he hasn't done much for Kamloops over the last four years. However, as a political novice, it is uncertain as to whether Brown will be successful in raising his profile as a viable alternative. In the end, the NDP always surprises with their GOTV, and I'm going to assume that Brown will do just enough, and thus, I'll predict a narrow NDP victory in Kamloops.
	28 02 05
Doug Brown, the NDP candidate for Kamloops, was quoted in the Kamloops media that he has a lot of respect for incumbent Claude Richmond and that his chances of defeating him are slim. It will be interesting to see how the Claude Richmond factor plays with the local electorate and let's not forget that, as a bellweather riding, as Kamloops goes so does the province.
	26 02 05	M. Lunn
Although this is a swing riding, I would give the BC Liberals a slight edge. Since Kamloops is not a small town like many of the other interior ridings, they haven't been as hard hit by the cuts as elsewhere therefore they will focus more on the strong economy as opposed to the harshness of the cuts. This still could go NDP, although unlike in 1996, I would say that Claude Richmond has a better chance of being re-elected than Kevin Krueger simply because Kamloops-North Thompson includes many smaller communities which are generally more right wing than the larger ones, thus going liberal in 1996, but more angry at Gordon Campbell than the larger ones therefore more likely to switch to the NDP.
	28 02 05	Nick Boragina
The BC Liberals should take this riding. This is a historic Social Credit area, and as the modern successors to Social Credit, the Liberals should easily sweep an MLA back into the house.
	02 03 05	Dennis Piva
As Kamloops goes, so does BC. The BC Liberals will win the next election, so Kamloops will stay BC Liberal.

Submit Information here
Return to - regional Index
Return to - 2005 British Columbia Prediction