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Cariboo-Prince George
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 1:19 PM 6/18/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 9:35 AM 17/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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Marxist-Leninist: Carol Chapman | ||||||
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Canadian Action canadienne: Bev Collins | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Douglas Gook | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Dick Harris | ||||||
| Independent: Mike Orr | |||||||
| Libertarian: Jeff Paetkau | |||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Gurbux Saini | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Rick Smith | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Cariboo-Chilcotin (47.2%) Philip Mayfield | ||||||
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Prince George-Bulkley Valley (52.8%) Richard Harris | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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24,943 | 58.08% |
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9,895 | 23.04% |
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3,497 | 8.14% |
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3,036 | 7.07% |
| 1,576 | 3.67% | |
Cariboo-Chilcotin (117/192 polls, 35426/53321 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 4329 | |
| 12144 | |
| 1706 | |
| 1832 | |
| 533 | ||
Prince George-Bulkley Valley (115/206 polls, 39638/59156 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 5566 | |
| 12799 | |
| 1330 | |
| 1665 | |
| 1043 | ||
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15/06/04 | Young Guy Email: [hidden] | |
| The most popular party in Cariboo- Prince George seems to be the "Anybody but the Liberals" party. Saini will be placing a distant third in this campaign thanks to his party's image in the riding. On the doorstep I have found that most people are undecided between the CPC and NDP but are vehemently against Paul Martin's Liberals. Dick Harris, a three time incumbent, undoubtedly has the advantage in this election and will most likely take the seat. Rick Smith has been gaining a surprising amount of support thanks to his down to earth approach, his people first agenda and because of political in-fighting that has plagued the local Conservatives. Smith will take a strong second place but will not be able to overcome the Dick Harris' hold on the area. | |||
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14/06/04 | Just here for the beer Email: [hidden] | |
| I think this riding will be too close to call between the Conservatives and Liberals, and a recent editorial in the June 10 Prince George Free Press agrees. I quote, "...Dick Harris in Cariboo-Prince George is in a far tighter battle [than Conservative MP Jay Hill] and he's had to spend as much time answering for other party members' mistakes as he has defining his own position or at least showing that he's more up to date with the new policies than some of his fellow party members. Mr. Harris has served this community for three terms in Ottawa and has said he will run on his record. But even he might be noticing that party baggage, old and new, may be dragging him down." Some of the polling numbers I've heard (from both camps) seem to indicate it is a neck-and-neck race. The numbers of undecided voters are huge. Saini's problem lies in Prince George and his lack of recognition amongst voters there (since he is from Williams Lake). 50% of the population resides in Prince George. Another point is that voters in PG do know Mr. Harris, where there are rumblings about his record in Ottawa as well as the Conservative nomination battle. If Saini can sway undecided voters in PG based on the Conservative hardlines, he can make this a riding which will be contested by less than 1000 votes. It will also be interesting to see if the losing side in the nomination battle votes Liberal, votes Conservative, or stays home. In this historically Conservative riding, it will be interesting to see, and it is far from a foregone conclusion. | |||
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12/06/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| Despite the problems with the nomination in this riding, I feel the gap that needs to be made up is just too large. If the CPC was at 30% province-wide, and the NDP at 40%, then I would not be making this prediction, but those numbers have yet to show, so for now, I'm predicting a CPC victory. | |||
| 28/05/04 | Fly on the wall Email: [hidden] | ||
| Being a political junkie, I love this website, but I wish people's submissions could be objective and not partisan dribble. In Cariboo-Prince George, this should be a lock for the Conservatives, but a nasty nomination fight between Dick Harris and Elmer Thiessen has left the riding association split. Much of the smell of the nastiness has landed on incumbent Dick Harris, leaving many right wing voters holding their noses. Long-standing resentment against the gun registry by the voters in this gun toting riding and contempt for the provincial party gives the Liberals a snowball's chance in hell of winning here. There are strong NDP roots here and candidate Rick Smith, the "aw shucks" folks former aid to popular Mike Harcourt may surprise people. I'm not saying he'll win, but he'll do much better than many expect. This riding will probably go Conservative, but it is still too close to call. | |||
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24/05/04 | Initial Email: [hidden] | |
| Dick Harris has had a lock on this riding in the past; however, the nomination process revealed deep-seated rifts in the party. This weakens him in the minds of voters. Furthermore, a member of his riding association confided to me that Harris's "fingerprints were all over" the falsification of documents. This, admittedly, is hearsay, and I don't want to be sued over that statement. However, making this observation to me - a poloitical enemy - indicates the problems within the Conservative party. Also, the NDP is benefitting from anger at the provincial Liberals, especially the recent HEU contract rollback. This will translate into a move of Liberal votes to the New Democratic candidate, Mike Hunter. I've worked for the NDP and even stood as a candidate, so my prediction may be reflective of my hopes as well as the current circumstances. I was in a parade with the candidates and observed the depth of anger at the provincial Liberals, the lack of interest in the Conservative candidate, and the warm response toward the NDP. | |||
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14/04/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | |
| So, the nomination is being re-run. There was some problems with some people being left off the list and some mail ballot problems. The result last time was rather close. Elmer Thiesen, the challenger, is a dentist from Williams Lake and involved with the restorative justice program there - an interesting guy. | |||
| 01/04/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | ||
| This riding was made up, about equally, of 2 old ones. Neither sitting MP is running here, one was even defeated. It's too close to call right now, as we cannot tell how the losing MP will react. If he runs as an independent, the advantage goes to the Liberals and the NDP, if he does not run, the Conservative Party has the advantage. | |||
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26/03/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | |
| Elmer Thiesen took the nomination from Dick Harris even though Elmer is from Williams Lake (or is Quesnel?) and not PG. They guy is a campaigner and will work hard to become MP. | |||
| 25/03/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | ||
| This is not true blue at all, this is Reform country - populist right wing that would vote for a cigar comping NDP logger if one ran. This is the land of verious Western Alienation and will abandon the CPC if they look like they will pander to Quebec or Atlantic Canada | |||
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16/03/04 | P. Kelly Email: [hidden] | |
| True Blue conservative area. There is little chance the conservatives could lose here, unless there was an even more right-wing party to choose from. Conservative hold. | |||
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