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Churchill River
Rivière Churchill

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:32 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:32 PM 6/26/2004

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Earl Cook
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Al Ducharme
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Marcella Gall
Jeremy Harrison
Rick Laliberte

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Churchill River (100.0%)
Rick Laliberte

2000 Result/Résultats:
9,742 41.79%
7,598 32.59%
5,098 21.87%
738 3.17%
135 0.58%

Churchill River
(144/144 polls, 39637/39637 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Much like BAQ I have called this riding wrong in the past and with four possible winers I am not about to go out on a limb and predict anybody. Anyone who tells you they know the outcome of this riding is a lier :-)
Of any seat in Saskatchewan this one is the closest to call. TCTC until election night.
08/06/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
Weirdest riding ever!! With the NDP, Liberal and Rick splitting the northern reserve vote, my gut says the Conservatives will win this seat. Although I believe I have predicted this riding wrong in both 97 and 00, so maybe the Tories do not have a shot :)
02/06/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Laliberte's changed his mind again? *Sighs*...
As a result of his decision to go Indie (again) Churchill River morphs from a very likely Dipper pickup to a complete and utter Mingle Mangle... and whatsmore unless Laliberte falls/is pushed into Lake Athabasca it'll remain that way long into the night... If the winner gets over 40% I'll be stunned...
A bit of history: Churchill River was created for the 1997 election from roughly equal bits of Prince Albert-Churchill River (where Laliberte had run as an Independent in 1993) and The Battlefords-Meadow Lake (a traditional NDP-PC swinger) along with a bit of Mackenzie... *both* the NDP and the PC's have a long federal history hereabouts (with the NDP's being more recent).
28/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going Conservative. Let me explain why. The NDP and Liberal candidates are from the East of the province leaving many influential voices in the West of the province very angry, and they will most likely not support any party this election. People in this riding are furious at the Liberals on a federal level and a local one. Laliberte is running, and as he attracts the support of alot of Northern and Western leaders, who would usually support the NDP or the Liberals. The riding has a history of voting PC. The Conservative party is running a very good candidate, who is doing his best to meet as many people as possible. Jack Laytons views do not go with those of the people in the riding, and if this is pointed out, many voters will re-consider voting NDP.
25/05/04 JCM
Interesting constituency. Even though he won't be re-elected as the constituency's MP, Laliberte will play a direct role in who wins the seat.
As a former New Democrat MP and a former Liberal MP, it is hard to say which party his support will hurt more. The turnout by First Nations and Metis voters will determine the shape of things to come in this riding. Too close to call. A close race is likely between the New Democrats and the Liberals.
25/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
If Laliberte runs as an Independent, I would give this riding to the Conservatives because they will inherit the overwhelming and undivided support in the southern rural areas of the riding, while three candidates (at least) are fighting for and dividing support in the aboriginal polls in the north.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
So Laliberte's going to run as an independant after all (Dude! Make up your mind so we poor saps trying to predict the election outcome don't have to keep changing our predictions!). This makes an even bigger mess out of the Churchill River riding and frankly there is no easy answer. We're adament that the Liberal's won't win and we're figuring on a winner being determined by vote splitting. Conservatives have support in the south of the riding and NDP in the northern aboriginal communities. If the Liberals have a strong enough candidate and split votes with the NDP, then we think Laliberte will squeek up the middle. If Laliberte dukes it out with the NDP (whether or not the liberlas have a strong candidate) then the Conservatives will win. If Laliberte is really not all that popular then it will be an NDP win. This one is going to be interesting and we're already making popcorn to watch this one on the 28th.
08/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Churchill riding was one of the most remarkaly extreme results internally in the last election...the Conservative margins in the southern rural areas were HUGE...and Laliberte's margins in the aboriginal north were equally so...just a few more polls of them (other posters have noted this, but, having looked at elections in Canada for years...this was truly one of the most extreme cases).
The Conservative candidate is quite competent and also reaching out to aboriginals...I do predict that he will retain the strong support of the southern periphery of the riding. At this stage, all depends on whether the aboriginals split or solidy behind either Liberal or NDP candidate. Neither Liberal or NDP can win without 65-70% of the aboriginal vote...
30/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Sorry about that Al, I was quoting the numbers from what I overheard. Anyway even with 1,000 votes that will come from the NDP and Liberal votes, not something they can afford, and the fact that the NDP and Liberal candidates come from the Eastern part of the province, which will not sit very well with some, and that will effect the vote.
30/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

This seat is wierd. A lot of Lalibertie's strength was personal (He won both as an NDP'er and as a Lib) so with him out of the race, it gets interesting. I'm not willing to call this for anyone yet, but I think the NDP have the best shot at reclaiming the seat.
29/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Er... Travis... although Laliberte *did* run as an independent in 1993 (in Prince Albert-Churchill River) he won 1499 votes. Not 3000 votes.
26/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Laliberte is not running for the Liberals, he might run as a independent, and the last time he did, he received 3,000 votes. Now, with two Metis candidates running for the Liberals and NDP, and the possibility for Laliberte to run again, and with the Conservatives running a great candidate this is going Conservative.
26/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Laliberte isn't running again... I'll stick to what I said earlier and predict that the NDP picks up Churchill River.
Northern Saskatchewan is a traditional NDP stronghold, is quite poor and has a First Nations majority.
Laliberte held on to this seat due to his personal popularity, not because he was the Liberal candidate (actually it was probably in spite of the fact that he was the Liberal candidate...) and now that he's out of the picture, the NDP should be able to win Churchill River back.
24/04/04 Jesse Hoffman
Well, it's official, Liberal MP and former New Democrat, Rick Laliberte won't be seeking re-election. I would say this definitely tilts the scales in the favour of the NDP. Churchill River is a traditional NDP friendly area, and the reason that they came in third in 2000 was because of Laliberte's personal popularity among center-left voters, and the aboriginal communities. With him out of the picture, these voters will largely come back to the NDP, and will not vote for a Liberal Party that is moving further and further to the right. NDP pickup.
24/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Laliberte is not going to run again. He says the Liberals did not back him up when he needed them last year. One thing that we're reasonable sure of, the Liberals will have one seat in saskatchewan after the election and it is Goodale's. The question now is whether or not the NDP will regain this seat or the Conservatives will steal it. Our opinion is that the NDp will take it. It's not all too affluent and the large native population favor an NDP take back.
19/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going Conservative, even if the Liberals decide not choose Laliberte as their candidate. The NDP came in third place last election, and that was because Laliberte took a major coalition of First Nation chiefs with him to the Liberals, but that is now gone.
13/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
This race will hinge on whether Laliberte (who was elected as an NDPer in 1997 and crossed the floor a few years later) decideds to retire or not...
If he decideds not to run again, this riding becomes a likely NDP pickup as Northern Saskatchewan is both a traditional NDP stronghold, is quite poor and has a First Nations majority.
However, if Laliberte decideds to give it another go, it *might* become a tight three way race *if* Laliberte still has the personal popularity he had in 2000 (although from what I hear he doesn't).
I'll make my mind up after Laliberte makes his mind up.
11/04/04 Ted W.
Email: tedwilson@canada.com

The Conservatives have been campaigning hard here for the past year or more and are running a well known young lawyer named Jeremy Harrison who is quite well liked. Stephen Harper even spent a couple days touring the riding this summer - making a lot of points among voters who haven't ever seen a prominent federal politician up in the North. The paper said it was the first visit by a Leader of the Opposition since Diefenbaker in the 50's. The unpopular provincial NDP government isn't going to do the federal party any favours in the election, and people are just not going to be voting Liberal. I think our riding will be going Conservative this time.
30/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Trent you bring up a very important part of who will win in the next election, and that is the major split between the North and South of the riding. Now Laliberte used to have all major First Nation leaders behind him in somewhat of a coalition, but now that is gone. The Conservative candidate understands this, and spent last summer with the new leader of the Conservative party meeting with First Nations people, and their leaders. As for Laliberte, he is facing one person for sure, and possibly one more.
29/03/04 Trent
Email: i_am_saskatchewan@hotmail.com
I think this is a toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives but more then likely it will still go Liberal. There was a huge north/South divide here in 2000. The Alliance cleaned up on the bottom end where there are a lot of rural communities. So much that it was called for the Alliance early in the night, but ened up going to Rick by a few thousand votes. I agree that his antics have probably hurt him. However, is he even going to be the Liberal candidate?
29/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Al polls show the Conservatives going up more than the NDP, but lets remember polls mean nothing. Roy according to the polls was headed for a majority government, he ended up with a minority. The polls mean nothing. It will come down to which party has run the best campaign and candidate, and that is the Conservative party.
29/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
This is a definite win for the Conservatives. Their candidate is experienced and dynamic. He has spent the last few years hounding the Liberal incumbent. The ethics scandals will take away a huge percentage of the Liberal vote. The general mood in Saskatchewan is turning against the NDP as the provincial government sinks the province deeper and deeper into debt. The provincial health system is crumbling, and property taxes are going up in rural areas. This provincial anti-NDP sentiment will spill over into the federal campaign. Jack Layton does not sell well in Saskatchewan.
28/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Travis... the numbers I was looking at were for Saskatchwan and both Prarie provinces together.
I repeat that since 2000 the CA/CPC has dropped by a huge amount in Saskatchwan, and the new right wing ideas that were popular in Saskatchwan in 1999/2000 have fallen out of favour in a big way since then (as is evidenced by Calvert's "Alberta Envy" campaign).
This isn't to say that the CPC *can't* win here, it's just unlikely.
Both the Liberals and the NDP have a good chance of winning, and will be able to give this race more attention than the CPC who will be struggling to hold onto their 2000 pickups.
26/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I do not think that the Liberals can retain this riding. I would be surprised if it were to go Conservative. I feel that provincial support for the NDP and improving poll numbers for the federal party make it a likely NDP gain.
24/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Al I don't know what numbers you are looking at, but all numbers show that the Conservative party has gone up more than the NDP has. This riding won't be a easy win, but looking at everything that has happened with Laliberte, and knowing that only one party which attacked him for his over-spending, was the Conservative candidate.
20/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The Canadian tax payer federation added up all of the numbers from his record for showing up to votes, and the various committes he is on. They say his numbers do not add up, also add in the fact Lalilberte is never seen in any other town in his riding, besides his own. The only candidate who has brought this out, and received attention is the Conservative candidate. The NDP pay maybe running a Metis, but Laliberte is also Metis, so they will split the vote. Lets not forget the new leader of the Conservative party Stephen Harper spent time last summer talking to First Nations leaders, with the Conservative candidate. This seat is going Conservative.
20/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Churchill River is looking like a tight race and I'm reluctent to call it at the moment...
Since 2000 the NDP have gone up in Saskatchwan, while the CA/CPC have dropped dramatically (the main reason why Calvert won the 2003 provincial election was because he sucessfully tied the Sask Party to Ralph Klein-Alberta-Canadian Alliance).
However the Liberals had seemed strong in Saskatchwan (not often you hear that) and I had them as favourites to hold the riding... until the Sponsership Scandel and subsequent collapse of the Liberals in Western Canada.
At present I think Churchill *leans* towards an NDP pickup, but it's currently not beyond reasonable doubt.
One to watch.
19/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Laliberte will get the heave-ho, if it appears the Liberals might fall, and though NDP sentiment may be strong, the temptation to have a PM from the west, combined with the desire to turf the Grits might tip the balance to the Tories. Don't underestimate the significance of a leadr from the west as opposed to the spit 7 polish from Toronto/Montreal, and Montrea;/Windsor.
Should the Tories not win the NDP gets it back.
I agree with the poster who said that apart from Wascana, and maybe a seat or two in Manitoba there probably won't be a Liberal left standing in the west.
17/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
Travis, I think a Conservative victory here is unlikely; in fact despite the Alliance candidate coming second here in 2000 this seat is probably the least likely pickup for the C's in Saskatchewan. The incumbent is one of the bigger weirdos in the current parliament, but I believe the NDP candidate is Metis, and stands a much better chance of profiting from any fall in Liberal fortunes than do the Reformatories.
17/03/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives will not be a factor here. Rick Laliberte, the Liberal incumbent, may have embarassed himself on national television with his "Middle Canada" thesis, but his travel costs are high because he spends a lot of time in the remote areas of the riding - and as a result still appears to have the support needed to win.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Tough one! The NDP won it in 1997 only to have their MP cross the floor to the Liberals. The Canadian Alliance fared well in 2000 (better than the NDP) yet the Liberals kept it. It's way too early to figure this one out. Our guess it's one of a number of good ol' three-way battles we haven't seen since the 1980's.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I've been hearing for a while now that NDP-turned-Liberal MP, Rick Laliberte, is going to be tossed this election. I dont think the tories have the strength to make any real gains here, The NDP will take this riding. It will be a battle for sure, interesting to watch.
16/03/04 Travis
Email: [hidden]
With the Conservative candidate on the heels of the Liberal incumbent for his record spending levels on travel, even though he does not show up for half of his responsibilitys in Parliament.
Email: [hidden]
This should be one of a numnber of NDP gains in Saskatchewan. The only safe Liberal seat in the West will be a couple members in Winnipeg and Ralph Goodale. Earl Cook should take it for the NDP.

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