Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Churchill River

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Rick Laliberte
Canadian Alliance:
Kerry Peterson
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Rogers
New Democratic Party:
Ray Funk
Canadian Action Party:
Brendan Cross

Incumbent:
Rick Laliberte

Previous Result:
28.40%
5.10%
31.98%
34.53%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email: mdparkes@msn.com
One thing for sure in Churchill River is that Rick Laliberte will be searching for a new job. No MP in Western Canada has won reelection after crossing the floor, and the Liberals are dispised in Saskatchewan over inaction in the farm crisis. Look for a toss-up between the NDP and Alliance.
Editor's Note: Hon David Kilgor in Edmonton Cross the floor from PC to Liberal and was re-elected in 1993 and 1997.
11/10/00 Brett Quiring Email: bquiring@sk.sympatico.ca
This will be a very interesting riding to watch. The riding is split into two very distinct regions one the far north which which is mainly First Nations people and resourse workers and southern bit which is small farmers and agricultural towns In 97 the liberals won the far north and Reform won the south. The NDP came in second in both regions and took the seat. Rick's bolting to the Liberals will bring a interesting dynamic to the race. If he brings some of the voters that voted for him in 1997 the CA could win the seat on a better split. This riding is going to be a close three way race it will probally go either NDP or CA but it is winnable for the Liberals, after Wascana this is the Liberals best seat in SK.
12/10/00 Richard Email:
aliberte took this riding from the Grits last time around. Now with the NDP weak, and core NDP supporters behind him, Laliberte will be returned as a Liberal easily out edging the NDP in this norther Sask. riding.
12/10/00 kd Email:
The knives will be out for Laliberte. New Democrats have never been kind to defectors, especially in Saskatchewan, where the name "Hazen Argue" still means something to old-timers. Local Liberals who have worked hard for their party arenít grinning about their new member either. After E-Day look for Laliberte in the Senate, not in the House.
13/10/00 RSC Email:
New Dem's hate turncoats so Laliberte should burn. Look for the alliance to steal this one.
13/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Correction: there *is* a Western Canada party-switcher who's won re-election: Edmonton's ex-Tory David Kilgour, now the safest Liberal seat in Alberta. As for here--still way too early and tangled..
15/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email: 4zeke@writeme.com
I worked as a Consituency assistant for this riding when it was still Prince Albert-Churchill Rivers. There are two types of voters in this constituency, Left-wingers who hate gun control and right wingers who hate gun control. This will be very,very close between CA and NDP. I think the NDP will take it becasue they will be very motivated to go to the polls to punish Laliberte.
16/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email: chris@propertyrights.net
Rick Laliberte's opportunistic switch to the Liberals was not taken kindly by the media back home. Expect this to be a kick in the teeth to both the Liberals and the NDP here - with the Alliance thus coming up the middle and taking the riding they lost by a razon-thin margin in 1997.
17/10/00 Ian Berg Email: ipberg@yahoo.com
Rick Laliberte's re-election hopes were meagre at best, the 1997 election was close between his NDP and the Reform Party. Switching to the Liberals sealed his fate as a one-termer. Many New Democrats who voted for Laliberte in 1997 will be attracted by the idea of having an MP in a larger, more effective opposition party and join with Reform-Alliance loyalists to elect the Canadian Alliance candidate.
18/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email: 4zeke@writeme.com
OK, lets be clear here, this will be a close race, and I can't count out the Alliance, not by a long shot, they have as good a chance to win as the NDP (But for reasons already stated I predict NDP) The idea that this riding could go Liberal is a joke, however. Change the graphic to a NCP/CA fight not a NDP/Lib fight.
26/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Ok, first things first... The Liberals are not going to win here. Last time it was an NDP seat (Laliberte cross the floor) but he only beat the Reform by 2 and a half percent. If Laliberte does anything it's drag some of his former NDP supports to the Liberals benefiting only the Alliance. (but I doubt that will be very many people going Liberal since I don't think the candidate matters much in this riding)
27/10/00 JFB Email:bretonjf@hotmail.com
It will be a tight game between NDP and Liberals. But NDP will win. In politics, people are very severe with dissident.
30/10/00 Email:
NDP hold, though with a different returning MP. Ray Funk, a former MP has been nominated by the NDP. That, combined with a solid NDP showing across the province, will keep the riding NDP.
30/10/00 Malcolm Email:
Re: this assertion that no western MP has ever been re-elected after crossing the floor -- I think you would find, in addition to David Kilgour, that Hazen Argue managed to get re-elected as a Liberal. But the Hazen issue has another relevance here -- part of the reason that Hazen managed to survive the Diefensweep as a CCFer (and as a Liberal if my memory is correct) was that the grudge match (Argue v. Thatcher in '58 and whoever v. Argue in '62) took the riding out of play for the Tories, despite their strength elsewhere. If the Liberals and New Democrats make this a Lib - NDP grudge match, the Reform Alliance may well find themselves completely sidelined.
31/10/00 A. Email:
No kidding...this one really is a grudge match. In 1993, Laliberte ran for the NDP nomination in Prince Albert-Churchill River against incumbent Ray Funk. Funk was re-nominated, and Laliberte ran as an independent. He got around 10% of the vote, enough to throw the riding to Liberal Gordon Kirkby. In the next election PA and Churchill River were separate ridings, so Laliberte and Funk didn't face each other, but it must have been galling to Funk that Laliberte won and he didn't. Put this one in Funk's column. Let's not forget that one of the local MLAs, Buckley Belanger, recently crossed the floor in the other direction (Liberal to NDP) and was re-elected by a landslide in the resultant by-election and subsequent general election, despite a collapse in the NDP vote province-wide.
03/11/00 JeffW Email:
The NDP's chance to retake this seat skyrocketed when it's incumbent crossed the floor. Local Grit apathy and motivated New Democrats should make this a race between the NDP and the Alliance. NDP in a close one.
03/11/00 Brett Quiring Email:bquiring@sk.sympatico.ca
With the CA being very slow in nominating a candidate and the NDP nominating a experience campaigner and former MP for the much of the area I think On Nov 27 Churchill River will bringing in the Funk.
03/11/00 Blake Robert Email:albertatory@hotmail.com
Laliberte sure as hell won't be seeing Ottawa again for a while! The voters of Churchill River saw the putz they got by voting NDP... look for the Alliance to take this riding.
08/11/00 James T. Chlup Email:J.T.Chlup@durham.ac.uk
The electorate will punish the incumbant for crossing to the Liberals.
15/11/00 AL Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
The gun control issue is killing the Liberals in rural Saskatchewan. The race here is between the CA and the NDP.
18/11/00 lrs Email:
unless Chretien visits riding before election- it means LIBs feel riding safe or lost-NDP well known but CA doing better in sask as indicated in polls-type of seat should go CA- if CA loses then DAY should be blamed for spending time in Ont when this seat is winnable bt past results
19/11/00 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
It's *still* too tangled. Liberals get a bump thru *ahem* incumbency; NDP gets a bump thru history and an ex-MP running; Alliance gets a bump 'cuz, well, they're the Alliance. This remains the most likely Sask seat to continue, into the new millennium, the 90s Sask pattern of 3-party snarls...
22/11/00 S.G. Email:
Laliberte's defection will split the left-wing vote. Expect the Alliance to squeeze up the middle and win here.
23/11/00 al Email:alchant@home.com
Churchill River will go Alliance. Having Valerie Day's family in the riding is not hurting either. Stockwell is a real boost here, and the NDP MP switching to the Liberals has not helped either one of those parties.
26/11/00 Jeremy Harrison Email:jeremy_harrison1@hotmail.com
I'm pretty sure that this riding will be going Alliance on Nov.27th. Laliberte crossing the floor of the House (while telling no one about his plans until the day of - including his staff) was a slap in the face to many of his hard core supporters. The southern part of the riding is solidly Alliance and they have a 37% core that can only grow while the NDP and Libs will be fighting it out for the rest. The candidacy of Brendan Cross (Leader of the Sask. First Nations Party - and running under the banner of CAP) is a bit of a wild card but will only split the left of center vote further. Last time out the Tories got over 1000 votes and one can expect most of this support to go CA. There was a lot of residual good will towards the Tories around Meadow Lake which was owed to the popular former Deputy Premier of Sask. (Goerge Macloed) under Devine. Expect many of these votes to go CA. Another thing - the CA has nearly 1000 members in Churchill and with this membe! rship total they have never lost a riding. Prediction - Peterson and the CA by 900 votes

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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