Election Prediction Project
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York West

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:31 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:50 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Joseph Grubb
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tim McKellar
Sandra Romano Anthony
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Judy Sgro
Leslie Soobrian

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
York Centre (8.0%)
Hon. Art Eggleton
York West (92.0%)
Hon. Judy Sgro

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,511 77.60%
2,916 10.52%
2,467 8.90%
536 1.93%
290 1.05%

York Centre
(13/178 polls, 4657/64954 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York West
(151/154 polls, 53622/53917 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 TTC supervisor
Email: [hidden]
Watch out here folks, the big upset could be from Dr. Joseph Grubb of the Christian Hertige Party.
They (CHP) are actually winning the sign war in about 75% of the riding, the liberals will be lucky to hold onto this one, the Grubb factor is going to come through on the 28th in York West.
I have seen more people with Joe Grubb signs and buttons in the riding, then the other candidates combined.
Switch this one to the CHP
09/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
This is one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario. For it to go to anyone but Sgro would require a total collapse of the party's support in Toronto. That's not impossible in what remains of the campaign, but it seems unlikely. Even if Martin suffers from a meltdown in the manner of Kim Campbell a few ridings are bound to go Liberal, and this will be one of them.
28/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
Scoring 70%+ in 2000, I don't see how the Grits can lose this seat, especially holding a 20% point lead in Ontario.
Interesting side note. I was travelling through the riding on Weston Road and noticed a large quantity of signs from the Christian Heritage Party. Not just on the side of road off a highway exit, but on people's lawns, dozens of them.
Then I discovered that the Conservatives don't appear to be running a candidate in this riding (as of May 28th). Considering that the new campaign financing laws give $1.75 for each vote the parties get, it'll be a pretty sweet gift if the CHP were the only right wing party in this riding.
19/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Not only is Sgro safe, her hit-the-ground-running overperformance in the 416 Liberal caucus (especially as a crusader for municipal issues) has far surpassed whatever she achieved as a municipal councillor/Lastman hack. But it's an impoverished seat (Jane/Finch is here, by gosh), with some past history of NDP being the nominal opposition (and, on a provincial and munipal basis, winning). Layton logic means that where there's past, there's future. But Sgro's too much the shining light to lose--if she does, the Liberals are plummeting to Turner-era depths, or else Jack Layton's sweeping into Stornoway.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This riding has not gone Tory since 1962, I can't see it going that way again. The NDP will come in a distant second I think. This is very rich Liberal country, except numbers at at least 65%, and that's a minimal number.
12/04/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
The Toronto Star (04/12/04) reports that city councillor Maria Augimeri is considering a run for the NDP in the neighboring York Centre riding (see my submission for that riding for details). The NDP has apparently been seeing some favorable internal polling numbers there, which may suggest a return to historic party strength throughout the York region. I'd say that York West is less promising for the Dippers than either York Centre or York South-Weston, but still, I think that all of these ridings may be about to get interesting. Certainly, there won't be a repeat of Sgro's 77% Liberal landslide here in 2000.
24/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
Judy Sgro will win this seat again, but by a reduced margin. The way she outright lied to cover her ass on the Fayim Kayani case will hurt her. Frankly, I think she should be ousted from cabinet and deported from Ottawa, but unfortunately neither opposition party is strong enough here - yet - to oust her.
For those that don't know, there was a sit-in at her constituency office by Project Threadbare activists protesting Kayani's planned deportation. The National Post paraphrased her "The minister, who is in Ottawa, says she's appalled that the demonstrators used such forceful tactics in an attempt to influence the judicial system."
Kayani has no further appeals. The Judicial process is already done with. But Sgro has the authority not to execute the deportation order, which is what I assume the activists were looking for. Instead of taking a stand, she comes up with this cockamamey story about how it's in the hands of the judicial system. Either she's deliberately misleading the public, or she's incompetant beyond any excusable degree for an Immigration Minister, as in that case she clearly doesn't understand the process. Rather disgusting.
18/03/04 V.D.
Email: Bench_breaker@hotmail.com
very safe seat with now cabinet minister Judy Sgro.
17/03/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
Solid Liberal territory. Look at the numbers last time.
17/03/04 Craig
Safely Liberal. Nothing short of not running a candidate can stop them here. Even the sponsorship scandals, the united right and the NDP resurgence in urban areas will barely register on the radar screen here. The margin might be lower but still comfortable. Predicted results: Liberal 59%, Conservative 20%, NDP 17%, others 3%.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This was the 3rd best riding for the liberals nationally last election, they will win it again.

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