Willowdale

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Willowdale

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Jim Peterson
Canadian Alliance:
	Kevyn Nightingale
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Chung Sen Leung
New Democratic Party:
	Yvonne Bobb
Marxist-Leninist Party:
	Roger Carter

Incumbent:

Hon. Jim Peterson

Previous Result:

	58.45%
	21.49%
	12.86%
	6.06%

Surrounding Ridings:
Markham
Thornhill
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
York Centre

Misc:

Population:	103 468
Avg Household Income	66 033

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	10/10/00	Dave Shory	Email: dshory@hotmail.com
Jim Peterson has been the Member for Willowdale since 1980 (with the exception of the 1984-1988 period). In 1997, Jim was re-elected with 58.4% of the vote in Willowdale. This riding is safely Liberal and Jim will quite handily win re-election.
	26/10/00	Allan Scott	EMAIL: seamaster@canada.com
Newsflash: This riding's going to the Alliance. Here's why: The Alliance candidate, Kevyn Nightingale, is a well-heeled professional with strong ties to the many professional and jewish communities in the riding, most of whom are REALLY pissed about Canada's support for that mid-east UN resolution. Couple that with the fact that the tories are running a straw candidate, and you've got no vote splitting. And Peterson? The only thing he's been noted for in the media is his public assertion that stay at home parents shouldn't get tax breaks because they don't contribute to the economy. Way to court the mom/woman/jewish vote Jim. This riding also elected a non-incumbent in the last provincial election, electing another jewish candidate (David Young) who ran for Mike Harris' team, proving that this riding can buck the Toronto liberal trend. Take it to the bank.
	28/10/00	AL	Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
Allan Scott give a good example of why the Alliance won't do well among Jewish voters. His insistance on writing "jewish" with lower case letters is a reflection of general insensitivity to matters of racism and anti-Semitism among the Alliance crowd since it shows an ignorance that spelling Jewish or Jew with a lower case 'j' is seen as anti-Semitic among the Jewish community as it is a practice generally followed by Nazis and other anti-Semitic groups.
	30/10/00	AL	Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
The only time in the last twenty years that Willowdale didn't go Liberal was 1984 when the Grits only managed 40 seats nation-wide. The fact that the CA campaign manger in this riding is John Mykytyshyn, the pollster who scandalised the Jewish community last year with his anti-Semitic polling questions in Thornhill, doesn't help matters with the significantly sized Jewish community in Willowdale. Add to this Day's support of anti-Semitic teachings when he was a parochial school principal in the early 80s and you get an easy win for Jim Peterson. Editor's Note: Dan Samson, not John Mykytyshyn, manages the CA Nightingale's campaign. Please also note that Mr. Nightingale is the one who called gay people "deviant".
	30/10/00	Jay Heckle	Email:
I presume Mr. Scott made his prediction before the Alliance candidate Mr. Nightingale took his foot and inserted it directly into his mouth with his widely reported "gays are deviant" comment. What a brainiac this guy is. His alarming views on gays have even become a national campaign issue, which has clearly embarrassed the leadership of his party. The whole thing is very reminiscent of the whole Bob "Back of the Shop" Ringma episode, the only question is will Stockwell Day do the smart thing and cut him loose as a candidate before he gets a chance to do more damage to his party's prospects nationally. Also the previous author has got it totally wrong when it comes to the Tories. This riding seems to be their strongest effort in Toronto. They have a strong sign presence and their candidate knocked on my door and seemed very intelligent and articulate. I would think that seeing as Toronto is going to go solidly Liberal, Jim Peterson should not be too worried.
	30/10/00	Sandy Berger	Email:
That was quite a screed, but there is zero chance Peterson will be toppled here. There would have to be a huge migration by traditional Liberal supporters to a single opposition party, and that ain't gonna happen. Voters who are pissed off about Canada voting against Israel are not fools. They aren't going to abandon the Liberals over a minor incident to embrace a party led by reactionaries. Would any son or daughter of Israel actually vote for someone who gets his car fixed by holocaust-denier Jim Keegstra and says he thinks he's just misunderstood? Of other interest, Nightengale lacks the skills that would be needed to topple Peterson. The man called an openly gay PC candidate a "statistical deviant." That isn't the language of someone serious about winning in a Toronto riding. That isn't the language of someone serious about winning anywhere. Willowdale will give Jim a good scare, but in the end, he will be reelected with a healthy margin.
	01/11/00	J. Reed	Email:jm_reed@hotmail.com
Just because John Mykytyshyn isn't the official campaign manager doesn't mean he isn't involved. Ontario folks will recall that he's also the PC pollster who (essentially) asked voters in Thornhill during the provincial election if they would vote for a Jewish candidate (the Libs were running Dan Ronen, son of the Canadian Jewish Congress Prez). Mykytyshyn was pretty much a persona non grata after that one. What on earth is Nightingale thinking? (as he's adequately demonstrated, he may not be thinking at all!)
	03/11/00	A.S.	Email:adma@interlog.com
Oy vey, yet another slick Alliancer tripped up as ye olde Reformer with foot-in-the-mouth disease. Anyway, like Eglinton-Lawrence, this is a supposed Liberal stronghold redrawn away from its traditional Liberal advantage--but as it's post-93, the Grits have the advantage anyway. That redrawing also probably explain's Norm "Lock'n'load" Gardner's star PC suicide run vs Peterson in '97 (he would've been better off as a star CA candidate in '00). Another hypothetical hope-raiser is that Willowdale's core is one of the original 3 provincial PC "recoveries" of 1990. But Peterson, for all his wheel-spinning, sits too prettily to be knocked off his perch. Yet..
	07/11/00	MH	Email:schuhhorn@sympatico.ca
Well, well, if Allan Scott's message is characteristic of Alliance thought, the Liberals are in little the Liberals are in little danger in most of Ontario. Jim Peterson seems to be firmly entrenched, and it will take a political earthquake to unseat him. Three weeks before the vote, it hasn't happened yet. Nothing's impossible, but those who take Scott's prediction to the bank should not expect to get much.
	07/11/00	Michael	Email:mvarrik@colosseum.com
I don't know about the rest of you folks, but I've lived in Willowdale for 32 years, so I'm observing the ground war here daily. I can give a meaningful analysis from within the riding without irrelevant references to outside issues or characters. I'm also on the campaign team of one of the candidates. If that doesn't totally disqualify me here, I'll be as vague and objective as I can. Willowdale is a curious riding in that it is Liberal federally, but PC provincially. It was a PC/Liberal swing riding federally until Reform pulled the rug out from under the PCs in 1993, leaving Peterson standing in first. Much of the PCs have migrated to the Alliance, but the PCs have a capable candidate and experienced campaigners and sufficient money to run a good campaign. This suggests that 1993 and 1997 might repeat and leave the Liberals in first with the PCs and Alliance fighting for second place. The NDP has never been a significant force in Willowdale, federally or provincially. There is absolutely no NDP presence in Willowdale thus far in this election. There are no notable fringe party or independent candidates. The Peterson team is very experienced, well funded, and has the advantage of incumbency. Literature dropping and canvassing is done thoroughly and smoothly. They have the majority of lawn signs out. The Alliance seemed to be a bit slow out of the gate, and are playing catch-up with literature drops and lawn signs. I imagine this is typical of Alliance campaigns due to the sudden election call. Kevyn Nightingale is a chartered accountant, and runs a tax service business in the riding. He was one of the principal organizers of the Canadian Alliance. The PCs made a good move in obtaining a Chinese candidate, since much immigration into the riding is from China, and the instinct for tribal bonding is still strong in humans. It's interesting to note, that the campaign literature for C.S. Leung makes absolutely no reference to the PC Party of Canada, or to Joe Clark. That might turn out to be a wise decision. Back to the issue of tribalism, most Jews (whew! I remembered to capitalize the "j") I know and have encountered are displeased by Canada's decision to vote for the UN resolution a while back, and I believe this will have a negative impact on Peterson, and a positive one for Nightingale, who is also Jewish. This issue alone won't move enough votes from Peterson to Nightingale to change the election. It would take significant country-wide movement from Liberal to Alliance to change the party representation in Willowdale. As for "statistical deviants", my first-hand experience campaigning in Willowdale has proven to me that few people are aware of Kevyn's faux-pas, and probably even fewer care at all. Only in downtown Toronto and Vancouver does this issue carry any weight. I haven't been to any all-candidates' debates, so I can't give an analysis of how the candidates perform versus each other, or what they think the important issues are. There you have it folks.
	09/11/00	Miles Reilly	Email:reilly@idirect.com
I thought the Tories were broke but today I received a video tape with a cover that read "Your Health Care in Danger: Important information for residents of Willowdale" The video showcases the local candidate Chung-sen Leung and talks about Liberal health cuts and the Alliance "secret agenda to privatise healthcare". It was well produced with good footage of the candidate but the graphics could have been higher quality. The guy is photogenic though and has a good voice. I have never seen a campaign video like this from any candidates before. I wonder how effective it will be. Wouldn't it be too expensive to send everyone one of these?
	20/11/00	AL	Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
I drove through a good portion of the riding yesterday making a point to stay on residential streets. Well over half the lawn signs are Liberal with Alliance second and the Tories trailing. If that's any indication Peterson should have this one in the bag.
	22/11/00	K. O'G.	Email:
Maybe at the beginning of the campaign, Kevyn Nightengale had a chance, but I think that the 'deviant' thing will scare off some voters, even those who are uncomfortable with gay people (Gay people?) I grew up just east of Willowdale, and I don't think that Willowdalonians want a wingnut like Nightengale representing them. E. Caplan's attacks on the racists that there are in the CA and Betty Granger's comments will probably bring much of the Jewish vote back onside. As a gay man, I will vouch for the fact that my friend Al Scott is no bigot. Sure he's a CA fanatic who in early campaign enthusiasm was predicting a CA sweep of 905 and victory in Willowdale, but he is not prejudiced against people of other ethnic or religious backgrounds or sexual orientations.
	24/11/00		Email:
Being a native of Willowdale, I know a little something about the riding. I'm personally an Alliance supporter, but unfortunately Kevyn Nightingale has no chance of winning this time around. The Jewish community I think is much more conservative than it used to be, and that shows in the fact that Willowdale is a very solid Tory stronghold provincially and lately Stockwell Day has attracted plenty of attention here. Virtually everyone I speak to in the riding despises Chretien, but that seems to be the trend all across Canada and it's not keeping the Liberals from forming another majority.
	25/11/00	AL	Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
I didn't say he was a bigot. I said he was insenstitive and reflected his parties insensitivity.
	26/11/00	Marco Anglesio	Email:mpa@the-wire.com
My prediction for Willowdale is strong Liberal. The Liberal organization is very strong here - we've been telephoned, we've met Peterson out in the riding and his wife came to our door. The CA signs are out but it seems that > 1/2 of them aren't actually on people's lawns. In my immediate neighbourhood, it's only 2 of 14 that are on homeowners' lawns. I'm not sure if the CA organization is just weak here (or lazy) or they're meeting with local hostility, but either way it doesn't seem like a good sign. No pun intended, of course.

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