Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Elinor Caplan
Canadian Alliance:
Robert Goldin
Progressive Conservative Party:
Lou Watson
New Democratic Party:
Nathan Rotman
Canadian Action Party:
Art Jaszczyk

Hon Elinor Caplan

Previous Result:

Population: 95 291
Avg Household Income 80 692
Submitted Information
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17/10/00 M.S. Email:
Three years have passed and what has parachuted Liberal Elinor Caplan done in this riding? Nothing!!
That will speak volumes in this campaign. This area went Tory in the provincial campaign and many of Caplan's so-called strengths will be held against her in this campaign.
In a riding which is highly Jewish, the Alliance promise of funding private schools will certainly garner them some votes. Moreover, the recent tension in the Middle East coupled with the booing of the word Liberal at a recent rally should be a wake-up call to Caplan that her stranglehold on this riding may not last much longer.
I think that residents in Thornhill will wake up and realize their error in 1997 and elect an MP who is both active in the entire community and lives in the area. Look to the West and we see Maurizio Bevilacqua who is loved by people of all political affiliations for his efforts -- that is what Thornhill needs.
17/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email:
The Liberals got 59% of the vote in the '97 election and Reform only got 7.9% I don't think private school funding and trouble in the middle east will result in a Liberal drop of 20%. This riding will remain Liberal
19/10/00 K.W. Email:
The riding is one-third Jewish. One-third of 59% equals about 20% - you do the math. In fact, Caplan probably depends more on the Jewish vote that its percentage in the riding.
The CA will nominate a Jewish candidate for Thornhill - and there's still an outside chance of it being a STAR Jewish candidate.
I won't name names - I don't want to jinx it. Suffice it to say that Caplan is quivering like the bowl full of jelly that she is in fear of this candidate stepping up to the plate.
20/10/00 Matt
Definitely Liberal. Despite Day's appeals to the Jewish community, his social conservatism and the image of Reform Party rednecks and bigots harms him and the party. I will be very surprised if the Alliance wins here.
20/10/00 M.S. Email:
While the Jewish population is about 20-30% of the population, one must also assess the apathy shown in Elinor Caplan's work to date in the riding. Her efforts as a Cabinet Minister are dubious and she seems out of touch being a parachuted candidate. Thornhill is in the 905 belt and rest assured this is one riding that both the PC and Alliance will work to remove from the Liberals.
Moreover, it would be beneficial for people to open their eyes and realize tthat the Liberals and every party has supporters who have socially unacceptable characteristics (bigotry as an example). To pinpoint the Alliance and single them out is simply incorrect.
25/10/00 K.W. Email:
No good Jewish Alliance candidate came through - and now, it appears that a local councillor with a grudge against Caplan is highjacking the nomination. He has no backing in the Jewish community. Caplan gets a free ride back to Ottawa - the largest object ever succesfully parachuted once again lands softly.
25/10/00 K.W. Email:
Final word - and I really mean it this time - the CA candidate will be David Rotenberg, in a battle of "my parachute candidate can beat your parachute candidate." A lifelong North York politico, and former MPP under Bill Davis, Rotenberg ran in Eglinton-Lawrence against Joe Volpe in 1997, as a PC. Got less than 23% of the vote. He is over 70 years old. The Heward Grafftey of Ontario. The Israel and independent religious schooling issues will allow him to eat up some of Caplan's '97 lead, but she'll still get a plurality. Call it: Lib 52% CA 30% PC 13% NDP and others 5%
30/10/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Elinor Caplan has the best young political organizer in the Liberal party running her campaign (the same guy who helped her son, David, beat Dave Johnson in the provincial election.) The Liberal machinery is well-oiled and ready to roar. Every angle will be watched and every vote found and brought to the polls. Now, this trouble with Israel and school funding and all that will make a lot of noise and a lot of headlines. But at the end of the day, this is a small-l liberal riding. Anyone saying Jews are going to abandon the Liberals believes WAY too much of the National Post's wishful thinking. People will want to be convinced to vote Liberal, and Caplan's campaign will do just that. More importantly, Stockwell Day's links to holocaust deniers and his statements regarding religious minorities will completely stall the Alliance. No Jew in their right-mind could possibly vote for someone with Day's positions. Jim Keestra was Day's auto-mechanic, for crying out loud! Expect influential papers like the Jewish Canadian News to make a big deal out of Day's record in the coming weeks. Liberals will win this with more than 60% of the vote. More if the Alliance rally with Jim Keegstra and Doug Collins planed for Nov. 17 goes ahead and gets national press.
30/10/00 M.S. Email:
Can you hear that? Listen closely. Those are boos. Boos for Elinor Caplan. They resonate all over the riding. Discontent amongst the Jewish community coupled with her apathy should have her sleeping rather uneasy right now. Sure she has been through a zillion elections, but this one is the biggest. Her blunders will catch up with her as will the Liberal decisions with respect to Israel. The Alliance's policy for tax relief for private schools will be a big issue here. And with this being in the heart of the 905 belt, and ironically the one riding in York Region not included in that recent 905 poll, the Liberal support is sliding fast. Alliance in a close win.
01/11/00 David D. Anber
If you have ever been to the 905 area of Toronto you can tell that they pay way too much taxes. Thornhill is what Parizeau would blame as jewish money area. yes its only about a third, but I have yet to hear what this minister did. In earnest, before I researched this, I had not heard of the minister. Finally, DFAIT showed why Canada would never make a good permanent member of the Security Council; they supported a policy based on the RELIABLE international media. Forget Parizeau, i blame this liberal loss on taxes and the UN vote. Although it will be close either way.
03/11/00 A.S.
Oy vey. Until lately, I would've felt Caplan was home free, particularly as the Jewish constituency has traditionally given Reform its electoral Zyklon B (only 8% here in '97). And remember, too, this is where the Jewish issue led pollster John "Lazy Maritimers" Mykytyshyn to nearly blow a second Harris 905 sweep in '99. But now it appears that, thanks to the Israel/Palestine fumble and a bit of clever Alliance strategizing (including, already, the private religious school funding promises), the tables may have turned on the the Alliance's favour?!?! *Maybe*. We'll see whether, come election time, the Keegstra-Collins baggage will turn Alliance lemonade back into lemons...
12/11/00 M.S. Email:
Bottom line - Elinor Caplan is scared and she seems to be breaking rules along the way. Signs are on regional roads which apparently not permitted in campaigns right now which are reflected in the lower number of signs for the municipal campaign. But over the past two weeks Caplan has inappropriately used GOVERNMENT funds to issue two Caplan Reports. Both were received AFTER the writ was dropped which indicates that Caplan has absolutely no regard for election protocol and used Government funds to finance her name in the campaign. Desperate times call for desperate measures and that is what she is doing. Need more examples? Why would she suddenly appear at a Jewish school during the campaign if not to do damage control. She is worried and rightfully so. The woman who was parachuted in 1997 should be careful that the door does not hit her on the way out.
16/11/00 Aaron Hayes Email:
Mel Lastman told the Toronto Sun editorial board he was "afraid" of the Canadian Alliance and that Stockwell Day "scares" him. Now, when the most popular politician in the area, and a Jewish one at that, tells the people of Toronto and area that Stockwell Day is scary, that can't help but hurt the Alliance. Your average Thornhill voter is not going to be quick to embrace someone setting off so many alarm bells around the nation.
21/11/00 Email:
I dont like Caplan or immigration and I hate what was done about Israel, so you know I'm not biased, so here it is:the Allience wont win.
21/11/00 M.S. Email:
It certainly seems that Elinor Caplan is working extra hard to get both of her feet in her mouth. So now she rips into Alliance supporters, many of which are now former Liberal supporters of the Jewish faith. Boy, can Caplan polarize herself further? Beyond the nagging phone calls begging for support, does she honestly forget that if she is representing the same political party that under Mackenzie King prevented Jews from entering Canada? It truly is fascinating to see what a politician will forget and revise in order to rewrite history and portray themselves in a positive light. Caplan has overwelcomed her stay here. She is certainly not running for a party which has been friendly to the Jews in the past, and this notion is catching on with voters a lot faster than one might think. But the most defining part of this campaign is that many former Elinor supporters are not going to support her, and will not vote at all. Thus, apathy will make this decision in Thornhill, and with the Alliance pushing its private school funding, Elinor must be having sleepless nights heading into the home stretch.
22/11/00 S.G. Email:
while I'm predicting that Caplan will win re-election, I do think Goldin still has a descent shot. He's Jewish, and an immigrant from South Africa, and a very likeable person. Several weeks ago, Stockwell Day spoke at a synagogue in Thornhill, and Alliance organizers were completely stunned to see an audience of 1000 of the riding's Jewish residents come out to hear him speak. I'm Jewish and can tell you all first hand that interest in the Alliance is growing within the Jewish community. Look for a close race in this riding on election day.
23/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Here is a textbook lesson that a couple hundred angry people in a room doesn't translate into anything more than a couple hundred angry people in a room. The latest Ekos survey shows Caplan with 85%(!!!) of local support. That's right, 85%. I guess people in Thornhill really do believe the Alliance is, you know, racists. The Alliance has 8%, the PCs 6% and the NDP 2%. Now, the margin of error is 11%, but I think we can stick a fork in this one, cause its done. Find the whole poll at the Ekos webiste.
23/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Shouldn't even be close ... "Hon. Elinor Caplan set to win landslide"
24/11/00 Email:/TD>
That Ekos poll I believe consisted of less than 100 Thornhill residents. Not exactly what I'd call accurate. Elinor Caplan will win again, but not in such a ridiculously huge landslide. Goldin is a good Alliance candidate and should get around 20% of the vote.
26/11/00 Matt
The talk about Jews being outraged about the UN vote and cheering for the Alliance is only true if you accept the recent Orthodox declaration that followers of the Conservative and Reform movements aren't "real Jews." The most enthusiastic Alliance supporters in the Jewish community are the most observant Orthodox. Only 10-15% of Toronto Jews are Orthodox, and over 40% are unaffiliated or Reform. So the number of Jews who identify with the most liberal segments is 3-4 times greater than that for the Orthodox. The Compas poll (the pollster for the National Post, of all things) has shown that Alliance support is lower among Jews than among non-Jews in the riding. So while the UN vote and funding for religious schools may be appealing to the Orthodox, more liberal Jews are weary of Day's social conservatism and fundamentalist religious views and are concerned with broader social and economic issues. So my prediction is that Thornhill will somewhat mirror the US J! ewish voting pattern: most of their votes go to the Liberals, with a strong Alliance base among the Orthodox.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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