Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Andy Mitchell
Canadian Alliance:
George Stripe
Progressive Conservative Party:
Keith Montgomery
New Democratic Party:
Joanne Bury
Green Party:
Richard Thomas

Hon Andy Mitchell

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Simcoe North
Nickel Belt

Population: 79 179
Avg Household Income 40 004
Submitted Information
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22/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Are the Liberals safe in North-Central Ontario, or could recent CA gains and the fact that this is Ernie Eves' riding make a difference?
22/10/00 EP Email:
andy Mitchell survived Major General Lewis McKenzie, he will survived whoever comes next.
26/10/00 Peter J EMAIL:
The CA have their act together in this neck of the woods and Tory support has collapsed. The Torys faired well here in '97 only because MacKenzie was the candidate and reform had a poor profile. This time round much has changed. These folks are die in the wool small-town conservatives. I expect the CA will do well here. After all the Liberals didn't win by much in '97. Don't forget the CA has a big booster in Ernie Eves. The CA will blitz this riding from door-to-door. Alliance gain!
30/10/00 James Email:
The PC's have nominated a strong candidate in local son Keith Montgomery. Cabinet Minister Ernie Eves and past Muskoka MPP Bill Grimmet have pledged support. Former PC MP Stan Darling still very popular and active. Mitchell viewed as an outsider who still doesn't really understand local residents. Locals who are furious with Liberal gun control legislation and voted Liberal will be very comfortable with voting for Montgomery before they would ever consider Alliance. This is a rural bellweather riding that will be one of the first to return to the PC's if Clark can move the national numbers at all
31/10/00 Christopher J. Currie
If Ernie Eves is supporting the local Tory candidate, I imagine that Andy Mitchell's is happy. (Think about it.)
01/11/00 J Reed
The Liberals ought not worry. The Alliance will be strong enough to split the vote from the Tories. Besides, Stan Darling's (who, incidentaly, would have been the third Tory re-elected in 1993 if he'd run again) stronghold (Trout Creek, Powassan, etc. ) is now part of the Nipissing riding. Look for him to back Nipissing PC Alan Dayes.
02/11/00 A.S.
Eves' CA-boosting moment was conditional on Tom Long's candidacy; once Long flamed out, Eves fell back into "neutrality". The conservative tradition here is *ferociously* strong, as Darling, Eves, and Gen'l Lew's choice proves; but if it weren't for all these PC stars and wayward endorsements, the prevailing character in this cottage-country-cum-gunlovin'-Precambrian-frontier would be Reform/CA as loud as the late Frank Miller's plaid jackets. (Indeed, Gen'l Lew not only lost, he nearly broke even w/Reform.) But not only did backbencher Mitchell withstand the self-cancelling double-pronger surprisingly well in '97, he was rewarded with a minor cabinet seat for his efforts (and fared not too badly at it). But there's an interesting possible threat from the *left*; the Green candidate, a former provincial Liberal leadership candidate who scored an amazing 17+% for Green in the '90 provincial election...
19/11/00 BAT Email:
I believe the last two weeks of the campaign will see a significant movement to the Canadian Alliance as Canadians begin to see the the true nature of the Liberal leader, their (lack of) values, and their low-road campaign strategy. To quote Gilles Duceppe in the leadership debate, "Mr. Chretien, be worried, inquiry is coming"

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Last Updated 20 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan