Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Nathan Cullen **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(99.35% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(0.65% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|This had been Nathan Cullens riding who had been a popular ndp mp and held the riding since 2004. Before that it had actually been a reform/alliance riding but not one they won by a large margin . and before that it had been a long time ndp riding in the 60s thru 80s.Taylor Bachrach is the ndp candidate and Claire Rattee is the cpc candidate. Perhaps a surprising choice as shes young with no political experience and previously ran a tattoo shop in the riding. there is significant vote splitting on the right here as there is a Peoples Party candidate and Christian Heritage Party leader Rod Taylor typically gets 3 % of the vote. No party leaders have been here so far, likely due to ridings remote location but has been few campaign stops in interior of BC this year by any leader.|
|(I labelled this the only NDP majority result in 2015: actually, there were two, the other being Windsor West)|
|Lets remember that Nathan Cullen managed 2015s only majority NDP result (even Jenny Kwan in VanE fell a hair short)...but, that was *him*. And open seat, BC Interior, somehow evokes forewarning memories of the 1993-2004 ReformAlliance years. Though Claire Rattée seems at the moment like too much of a gimmicky-libertarian way of fulfilling that forewarning; that is, itd require plenty of no-safe-NDP-seat leverage working on her behalf. Still, because its an open Interior seat, Im more tempted to bow on behalf of no safe than were it more urban...|
|Depending on which poll you believe, somewhere between 40% and 60% of NDP support has evaporated in the last four years. If it's 40%, the NDP could hang on, despite Cullen standing down, and if it's 60%, the NDP will be erased from the map.|
|I'm still cautiously going to say this is likely NDP, but it's actually very difficult to say right now.|
Back when these other predictions were cast months ago, I too would have been much more optimistic about the NDP's chances here. But A LOT has changed. First, the most obvious, Cullen isn't running again. In a lot of suburban communities, this wouldn't matter - but the name and the image of the man counted for a lot. That's a major blow. The overall federal NDP campaign is obviously off to a horrible start and would need to raise millions of dollars just to be upgraded to critical condition at this point. A far flung, isolated riding like this, practically in the Yukon is not likely to get the kind of nurturing from HQ that it may need to win it in 2019 without its' popular incumbent.
Looking past more recent history, don't forget how populist a riding this has been over the years; it reliably voted Reform Party.
The Conservative candidate is not your mother's conservative. A plucky young tattoo shop owner she will connect much more easily with young locals than her opposition may be giving her credit for. I'm actually wondering if this race has the possibility of becoming a BC 2019 version of Ruth Ellen Brosseau. I think the Conservative candidate has been easily dismissed by too many people who were sitting on Nathan Cullen's laurels. Cullen would have been unassailable, but make no mistake, this is an open seat - and with the NDP polling at less than 20% province wide now, that's not a great spot to be in.
338canada has the NDP leading in this riding by just 5%. Calculated Politics has the NDP doing much better, but their algorithm is resting too heavily on historical data - even then they have the NDP 18 points ahead when last time Cullen crushed it by 30.
I'm still calling this NDP because they have a good candidate, he's the Mayor of Smithers and has deep roots here. They obviously have a good organization experienced in winning successive elections. They should be ahead here on the ground.
But I'm getting the feeling they shouldn't take that for granted.
||Mark in Mexico|
|I can see a path to victory for the CPC in every other Interior riding, but this one still seems out of reach. Even if we allow for the Conservative share of the vote to grow faster than in other parts of the province (remember -- Skeena flipped away from the NDP provincially in 2017), and even if we subtract a hefty chunk of the NDP's vote with the retirement of Nathan Cullen, there's still a gap left.|
The Liberals and Greens have no history in this riding, and I fully expect progressive/environmental voters who might think of opting for these parties to line up behind the NDP.
Just don't be surprised if the margin is halved (or more) compared to last time.
|I'm saying this will still be an NDP hold. Compared to another Interior NDP riding like Kootenay-Columbia, this is far better for them. Nathan Cullen's departure is a big blow, granted, and I have no doubt he had a personal vote. Despite that, his 2015 decline in vote share is in line with other coastal NDP candidates. Now that the NDP aren't doing so well, there are some ridings where they may lose to the CPC, even next door in North Island on a bad night, but I think the North Coast area will keep this for the NDP. They do very well there and in parts of Stikine, and I think they will do well enough there to hold this, after all, they won by ~25% last time.|
|Even with Cullen retiring, I still stand by my previous position. His personal popularity is definitely worth something, but the North Coast and Stikine areas are pretty strongly NDP-leaning in general. I disagree with the previous poster that this area has strong Green potential yet. Sure, Cullen has environmental leanings, but so do Randall Garrison, Murray Rankin and Sheila Malcolmson, all of whose ridings had strong performances from the Greens in 2015 nonetheless. They got less than 4% here last time and consistently underperform in the area provincially, even in the North Coast riding. They're likely to gain SOMETHING this time around seeing how well they're polling right now, but it won't be as significant as in other parts of the province. At least in this election, if anyone other than the NDP is going to take this, it'll be the Conservatives by a very tight margin, but I find even that to be very unlikely. It'll be interesting to see if the Greens at least grow some sort of a base here this time, however.|
|The fact that Nathan Cullen is resigning is opening up possibilities here - he's a huge loss for the NDP. The coast could be a strong Green area due to the environmentalist views many have there (Cullen was very green-minded and largely undercut them). The large indigenous population here is quite protective too and they may decide to cast their lot with either the NDP or the Greens.|
However, away from the coast, the BC Liberals made major gains here in 2017 and resource development is a big issue. That may open the door to the Conservatives to steal this seat as they will likely gain a lot in the inland areas and the resource towns. All it would take is a modest vote split (with the help of residual Liberal support) to turn Skeena-Bulkley Valley blue. Too close to call for now.
|NDP MP Nathan Cullen announced today that he is not running for re-election. The Conservatives could have a shot at the seat depending on how far the NDP vote drops, but the NDP may also have a shot at keeping it under a new candidate:|
|Unless Nathan Cullen decides not to run again, I'd be surprised if the NDP somehow lost this, even if they're polling super low right now. Even without Cullen I would expect them to hold onto Skeena-Bulkley Valley.|