Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:21

Constituency Profile


Arnold, Jonathan

Davidson, Scot

Komar, Keith

Lotter, Michael

McLean, Jessa

Wesley-Esquimaux, Cynthia


Scot Davidson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



791.32 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Van Loan ** 2405850.20%
Shaun Tanaka 1808337.80%
Sylvia Gerl 42558.90%
Mark Viitala 14833.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4081.05%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Caroline Mulroney 2605057.26%
Dave Szollosy 1065523.42%
Loralea Carruthers 618213.59%
Alexandra S. Zalucky 21954.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3040.89%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Went CPC in the by-election, I think they keep it in the general.
16/09/19 R.O.
The cpc easily held the riding in the by election , Shaun Tanaka after 2 runs decided to not run again for the liberals , leaving them with a new candidate who ran for them in 2011.
08/08/20 A.S.
*I* can see the Cons getting less than 50%--but only because the last election and byelection wasn't terribly much above 50% (well, 53.9% isn't "terribly much", especially at the Lib-crippling apogee of the SNC-Lavalin scandal), and that was all before the Ford backlash really set in, and there's still a chance of regular-election PPC bottom-feeding, etc. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't win handily anyhow--in fact, I wonder if Caroline Mulroney's quietly wishing she could change places...
23/06/19 seasaw
Even in their bad year, the Tories managed to get over 50% here, so unless there's huge implosion, I don't expect them to get anything less than 50%.
06/04/19 Sam
I expect Scot Davidson to repeat his recent by-election victory.
27/02/19 Lolitha
Was an easy byelection win so most likely to remain Conservative.
27/02/19 M. Lunn
Conservatives won this handidly in the by-election so unlikely in 8 months even with a stronger turnout the Liberals can overturn a 25 point margin.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Only in the 90s when the right was split did this go Liberal. This was one of five ridings the Tories got over 50% in 2015 and has consistently been in their top 10 best showings in Ontario both federally and provincially so I expect them to easily hold this both on Feburary 25, 2019 and October 21, 2019.

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