Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

York-Simcoe


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:43:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Gerl, Sylvia

Tanaka, Shaun

Van Loan, Peter

Viitala, Mark


Population/populations
(2011 census)

94616


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2462363.66%
718718.58%
438411.33%
20735.36%
Other 4081.05%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   York-Simcoe
   (182/182 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Peter Van Loan
24623
7187
4384
2073
Other408



 


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15 08 23 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This riding isn't as rural as when Peter Van Loan first won in 2004 but its still a fairly conservative riding. And type of growth here has been more suburban and people who want to be close to city but not actually live in it . the conservatives should hold this riding .
15 08 03 A.S.
99.233.125.239
By way of trivia, this was the only York Region riding where the NDP made it to second place--and more by way of dead cat bounce in a seat where nobody but CPC had a chance in blazes. (Though the Lake Simcoe-clinging trashburbia has always had a NDP lean--which is also why this was the only York Region zone to elect a New Democrat in the 1990 Rae landslide. All rather footnoteish now.)
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Outside Eastern Ontario, this is probably one of if not the safest Conservative riding in the province so even if the party got reduced to only 10 seats in Ontario, this would be one of the ten.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
174.89.199.19
While some may consider Van Loan as just another Harper cabinet blow-hard, he's liked in his riding and will easily get reelected.



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